“Is there life after referendums?” The fears and hopes of Kyiv


The main topic in the information space of the “independent” from the moment of the fateful (primarily for her) speech of Vladimir Putin and to the present moment remains the continuous “wang” about what will happen after the announcement of the results of the referendums on joining Russia, in currently being completed in the Donbass, as well as in the liberated territories of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.


In fact, all the variety of versions, opinions and assumptions expressed in the Ukrainian expert community boils down to reflections like: “Will they beat us right away or not? With all his might or, as before, in a "sparing mode"? But seriously, the main issue around which, as usual, the greatest passions boil, is how the Western “allies” will react to everything that happens. As a matter of fact, everything revolves around the answers to it - because in Kyiv they perfectly understand that its future fate will depend on this.

Nuclear "nightmare" of the Ukronazis


This material is an attempt to somehow generalize and systematize the moods prevailing in Ukraine regarding the points voiced above in order to understand what they are most afraid of and what they are still trying to hope for. It is clear that the nonsense voiced by the most "stubborn" and obscurantist local professional "patriots" will not be considered at all - after all, we are publicpolitical publication, not the Bulletin of Psychiatry. Let us dwell on the thoughts of those who, at least minimally, try to stay within the framework of common sense. So, in the most schematic form, the main versions expressed in the “nezalezhnaya” can be reduced to three scenarios: 1. A strict ultimatum from Moscow, followed by a nuclear war or without it. 2. Conventional war, officially declared and waged by Russia with the involvement of much greater forces and means than now. 3. Everything remains approximately as it was - with subsequent "peace talks" on the terms of the West. I’ll make a reservation right away: after the referendums are held and the newly acquired lands are recognized as full-fledged territories of Russia, the Zelensky regime will “go down” and stop trying to attack and “de-occupy” them, no one even considers. Very realistic, at least...

So, as already mentioned, the greatest nightmare for Ukraine is recognized there as the prospect of facing a “nuclear response” to further military operations in the Donbass and South directions, directly arising from the statements of the Russian leadership and its military doctrine. This is understandable - after all, Moscow has directly stated that they will consider them already as “aggression against the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Russia” and will use “the entire arsenal of means” in response. As the most likely option, the Kremlin is considering putting forward some kind of “last ultimatum”, before which (or immediately after, because it will be ignored with a probability of exactly 100%), a “demonstration strike” will be delivered by a tactical nuclear warhead. For what purpose? Opinions are divided here - some experts believe that they will "take off somewhere over the Black Sea", while others tend to think that they will "fly" somewhere in Western Ukraine (most likely - along the same Yavorovsky training ground) - well, so that the ammunition is not in vain to spend and to get it stronger ... Since Kyiv, fortunately, does not have its own atomic bomb, all hopes are pinned in this case on some kind of "influence" that its conditional "allies" - China, India and for some reason Turkey can exert on Moscow . Maybe they will answer? Tellingly, the threats coming from the West (and primarily from the US) are not even mentioned as a "deterrent" capable of forcing Russia to abandon the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Well, at least something is coming...

Again "Korean script"


The other two options mentioned above are basically the same scenario with minor differences. Within the framework of the second - "a big war without nuclear weapons" - Russia mobilizes (partially, as now, or completely if war is declared "by all rules" to Kyiv) and begins to "pressure with the masses", imposing a long and difficult confrontation on Ukraine and its allies "for exhaustion". It is clear that with the vast superiority of the Russian side in the mobilization reserve (and in many other respects), the prospects for the “nezalezhnoy” loom not at all bright. Especially considering that the inexorably approaching winter can force the “collective West” (at least Europe) to significantly reduce the volume of military aid supplies and their intensity. In this case, some Ukrainian “military experts”, apparently out of sheer desperation, begin to broadcast about “the inevitable problems that Russia will face in trying to arm, equip and train such a huge mass of mobilized”. Like, during this time we will also “build up muscles” - and then we'll see who wins! Well, this is already from the realm of pure illusions. Again, some in Kyiv continue to pin their hopes on some "negative social consequences of mobilization", although the course of events in recent days has convincingly proved that in reality they tend to absolute zero. No one is going to "overthrow the government", or even "burn the military registration and enlistment offices".

Tellingly, in almost all scenarios, the most likely option for the end of the NWO, which the Kremlin is “aspiring to,” is some kind of “peace agreement” or “temporary truce.” In the first case, we are talking about the "Korean scenario" that has already been imposed on everyone in the teeth - that is, the division of the territory of the former Ukraine into certain parts, which each of the parties will de jure consider "their own", and de facto - it will be as it turns out as a result of military operations. At least for a while, which can become quite long. In the second, we are talking, in fact, about the natural "Minsk-3", when the parties remain in combat positions, but stop active armed confrontation for a particular period. At the same time, Kyiv does not even try to hide that it will be used for the final re-equipment and retraining of the Armed Forces of Ukraine according to NATO standards. That is, to prepare for a new, even more brutal confrontation. It should be noted that during this time they expect, first of all, to receive from the "partners" modern combat aircraft, tanks and other NATO-style armored vehicles, as well as air defense systems of the appropriate level. And, of course, the most long-range missile systems of those that are possible - the representatives of the Zelensky regime go on and on about the "vital necessity" of their entering the arsenal of the Ukronazi formations.

As I said above, Kyiv does not really count on special hopes for “decisive intervention”, that is, direct entry into hostilities or a threat to use its own nuclear arsenals on the part of its “allies” (including the Americans who occupy the most aggressive and consistent anti-Russian position). . Actually, the West makes it clear time after time that the Third World War, especially in its nuclear version (and there will be no other - Vladimir Vladimirovich made it clear), does not intend to start. Moreover, in the "nezalezhnaya" they seriously express fears that more or less decisive "peace enforcement" may follow from the West - that is, a clear and unambiguous order to sit down at the negotiating table, and not arrange the next "counteroffensives", which all they can still overwhelm Moscow's patience and induce it to the most serious and tough actions. More or less serious people understand that the West will suit any option - "Korean", "Minsk", or any, as long as only Ukraine remains a source of tension and problems for Russia. If only the confrontation continued, allowing the imposition of sanctions and trying to undermine the Russian the economy and military power by any means available.

What is very depressing is that practically no one in Ukraine today is considering another scenario, which is the only acceptable and correct one for Russia. Namely, the continuation of the military operation (regardless of its officially announced format and status) until the complete defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other Ukronazi formations, the dismantling of the corresponding regime and the complete reformatting of the "independent" from its current, deadly for the national security of Russia form into an absolutely neutral one, a demilitarized and Moscow-controlled state formation or a confederation of those. In Kyiv, they continue to be firmly convinced that the most negative ending of the NWO may be the loss of a certain number of territories, which later, with the help of Western "allies", will be able to "win back." It is quite obvious that it will take some time and the most convincing demonstration of Moscow's own intentions to rid the Ukrainian side of such delusions.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 27 September 2022 09: 47
    +2
    what will happen after the announcement of the results of the referendums on joining Russia, which are currently ending in the Donbass, as well as in the liberated territories of the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions.

    Yes, the same thing will happen as with the Crimea. Will peacefully integrate into Russia. And in Ukraine, during the winter, Ruin can happen and then part of the people will flee from its territory to the EU, and the other part to Russia, to the newly annexed lands of Novorossia. Given that before the start of hostilities in Ukraine (according to the calculations of the then consumed bread) there were 28-29 million people. 5 million fled to the EU, 3 million to Russia, 8 million live on the lands of the annexed Novorossiya, approximately 12-13 million people remain. Half of them may move to the newly annexed lands. The people who remained in the cities without a working industry will want to join Russia, as the GDR once joined the FRG.
  2. gene1 Offline gene1
    gene1 (Gennady) 27 September 2022 12: 08
    +1
    Quote: Bulanov
    The people who remained in the cities without a working industry will want to join Russia, as the GDR once joined the FRG.

    Those left without work will join the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Or do you think the West will leave Ukraine alone, like an Afghan? Never.
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 27 September 2022 12: 42
    0
    In general, another glorification of another "fateful decision"
    For some reason, almost no one writes about the previous "fateful decisions" ..

    But in real life - as they decide in the Kremlin, it will be so ..
  4. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 27 September 2022 15: 56
    +3
    Putin is counting on starving the West, waiting for the West to drop the dependent Ukraine off its neck, but the West confiscated in advance the Russian 350 billion gold reserves and even the property of the Russian oligarchs, who had long sworn allegiance to the West in exchange for permanent residence. if not for the gift of Naibullina, the West would have to print candy wrappers to support its colony on Russian soil. Naibulina, in her defense, offers not to pay the debt of the Russian Federation (430 billion), plus she allegedly froze up to 100 billion of Western money on the Russian stock and currency market. plus some assets of the West in the Russian Federation were confiscated (VAZ (65% owned by the French), shares in deposits, etc.). it turns out that the Russian Federation allegedly turned out to be even in the black, after the economic aggression of the West. maybe that's why the Tsar did not "execute" her, left the "boyar" to continue to sit on the treasury)). The West, on account of its seized assets, may try to arrest Russian ships with LNG. oil, grain, etc., and here the Tsar will have to be responsible for his market - "if a fight is planned, you must strike first." let's see if the West decides to give Putin such a chance or not, check for weak, I think it won't dare, the Zionists of the State Department (they rule the West) can be blamed for anything (and for the cause), but when the confrontation comes to direct threats to their existence, they quickly give on the brakes and run like from Afghanistan (Korea, Vietnam, etc.). so we are waiting for the escape of the Zionists from Ukraine, while simultaneously grinding the remnants of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, time is playing on Putin. the main thing is that the Tsar should not make the mistake of Nikolashka in 1917, who surrounded himself with agents of the West, and was subsequently overthrown by them.
  5. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 27 September 2022 17: 37
    +2
    Life will go on. The referenda will not affect NATO, as they shot, they will continue to do so, they will gradually increase the range of shelling of the territory of the Russian Federation, now it is up to 100 km, then it will be 250 and so on up to 1000 km. This is how you can boil a frog, if you throw a frog into boiling water, it will jump out, and if you start heating the water with a frog slowly, then the frog will boil, this is how NATO treats the Russian Federation, slowly, so that everyone gets used to shelling.
  6. Z.E.N. Offline Z.E.N.
    Z.E.N. (KL) 27 September 2022 17: 56
    -1
    Ukraine controlled by Russia - Fairy tale.
    US warned Putin against nuclear weapons
    1964 there was a convention: the use of nuclear weapons against a country that does not have it, the automatic use of nuclear weapons by ALL the rest, against the one who did.
    Probably "Korean version"
    1. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 28 September 2022 15: 02
      0
      I'll see how the United States wants to expose itself to Russian missiles because of Ukraine .... There are 200 such Ukraines on the planet .... For Russia, Ukraine is a piece of itself. For the United States, Ukraine is another native.
  7. South North Offline South North
    South North (don ost) 6 October 2022 15: 39
    0
    we need Levitan
    everything will be fine