Mobilization and a change in strategy will allow the RF Armed Forces to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the summer of 2023

Mobilization and a change in strategy will allow the RF Armed Forces to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine by the summer of 2023

President Putin's decision to hold nationwide referendums in the Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov and to start partial mobilization in Russia radically changes the situation around the "Ukrainian case". The parties failed to “resolve the issue” behind the scenes at the Istanbul site, the likelihood of concluding an “agreement” was sharply reduced. Now we have to fight in a serious way, to destroy.


The forced alienation from Ukraine of the territory of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and southern Zaporozhye regions with their subsequent annexation to the Russian Federation almost nullifies the possibility of concluding a peace agreement with Kyiv in the future. President Zelensky himself said back in August that if the Russian authorities held the relevant plebiscites, there would be no peace talks:

If they follow the path of pseudo-referendums, they will close for themselves any chances for negotiations with Ukraine and the free world, which the Russian side will clearly need at some point.

However, on September 20, President Putin announced the holding of referendums in the Donbass and the Sea of ​​Azov, and they are currently taking place. Next week, our country may increase by four new regions, moreover, partially occupied by Ukrainian troops. Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov bluntly stated that if the DPR, LPR, Kherson and southern Zaporozhye regions officially join Russia, they will be under its protection:

Of course... If there is an act of entry of these territories into the Russian Federation, then, accordingly, the corresponding provision of the constitution will already work.

In other words, starting next week, a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and protect Donbass can transform into a full-fledged war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation if the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not leave the designated territories and cease hostilities. And they certainly will not leave and will not stop.

The fact is that after the coup d'etat in 2014, Nezalezhnaya was under the direct external control of the Anglo-Saxons and was consistently preparing for war with Russia. All the previous 8 years there was a “proxy” war on the territory of Donbass, but the DPR and LPR were only the first victim for slaughter for Kyiv and its Western curators.

Everything went to the point that already this autumn, trained by NATO instructors to conduct urban battles, the Ukrainian military at night in just a few hours would have burst into the territory of Donetsk from the fortified areas they had set up in Avdiyivka, Maryinka and Pisky, arranging a massacre there. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard would launch a large-scale offensive throughout the Donbass, drowning it in blood. There would simply be no one to stop them, the forces of the People's Militia were too incomparable with the enemy. Even the professional Russian army, which has been deployed and has been fighting for more than six months, is now with great difficulty withstanding the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the north of the DPR and LPR. It would not be worth expecting miracles from the few combat-ready units of the People's Militia and hastily called up "mobs" in iron helmets with Mosin rifles at the ready.

And then there would be Crimea. Intoxicated with bloody success, the Ukrainian army would quickly accumulate a shock fist in the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, destroy the bridge crossing with a massive missile attack and attack the peninsula. It is not yet known how things would have ended if thousands of 100-150 highly motivated military personnel had participated in a large-scale offensive.

In this context, the decision of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief to launch a special military operation on February 24, 2022, without waiting for the Ukrainian “blitzkrieg”, was absolutely correct. Also correct is the decision of President Putin to start partial mobilization in Russia on September 21, 2022. Faithful, but belated. If we had begun mobilization measures ahead of time, back in the spring or summer, then the military conflict would most likely have ended. While this unpopular decision in society was being delayed, Kyiv managed to carry out several waves of mobilization itself, bringing the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 700, retraining according to NATO standards and re-equipping its army with Western weapons. At the end of August 2022, we began to reap the bitter fruits of the Kyiv regime.

The Ukrainian army seized the initiative, launching an offensive simultaneously on the southern and eastern fronts. It was especially successful, alas, in the Kharkov region, which the RF Armed Forces had to hastily leave, unable to hold positions against an 8-fold superior enemy. The situation around Krasny Liman, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are trying to encircle, remains very alarming. The north of Donbass will be under attack throughout the autumn, seeking to disrupt the holding of referendums and recapture the maximum number of settlements, until the RF Armed Forces receive the expected reinforcements. The situation in the Zaporozhye region remains threatening, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine may attempt to make a swift strike on Volnovakha and Mariupol in order to cut the grouping of allied forces.

Obviously, the next couple of months will be the most critical of the entire campaign. The enemy is now strong and so far outnumbers many times our troops involved in the NWO. At the same time, the "Western partners" confirmed that they would continue to provide military support to Ukraine. Following a meeting between British Prime Minister Liz Truss and US President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly in London, the following statement was made:

The leaders condemned Putin's recent bellicose statements on Ukraine. They agreed that his actions underscore the need to continue economic and allied military support for Ukraine.

What can Russia answer?

At first, after the annexation of the Donbass and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and the continuation of the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Moscow will have the right to change the format of the NMD to a full-fledged war, as it should be done: with the destruction of the enemy’s infrastructure and strikes at control centers in the rear.

Secondly, the arrival of reinforcements will finally allow to stabilize the situation on the fronts. The mobilized 300 servicemen will ensure the strategic depth of defense and release the most combat-ready units for a retaliatory counteroffensive. This may be enough for the final liberation of Donbass, Zaporozhye and for the blockade of Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog with Odessa. If we believe the estimates of the ex-Minister of Defense of the DPR Igor Strelkov (Girkin), then for the complete liberation of the territory of Ukraine, the size of the Russian group will have to be at least doubled, or even more:

In a month or a month and a half, mobilized people will get to the front, someone, the most prepared, will get there in two weeks. Until then, the enemy will have an advantage. Then the situation will improve, but we still will not be able to attack effectively. In order to hold the front line, 300 thousand mobilized will be enough. But the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not stop the attacks, so it is logical to assume that additional sets of reservists will be required to defeat Ukraine. I believe that we will need the same amount, and preferably more ... Full mobilization is not necessary, it is redundant and will be difficult for the economy, it will lead to chaos, to overstrain. But it will be necessary to send up to a million soldiers to the front.

Practice has shown that Strelkov is often right in his pessimistic assessments, no matter how unpleasant they may be.

Thirdly, we need not only to strengthen the defense of the new constituent entities of the Russian Federation, but also to return the strategic initiative as soon as possible. In addition to further increasing the size of the group, Strelkov calls for the re-deployment of troops to Belarus. The idea seems quite reasonable, since the threat of a second strike by the Russian Armed Forces on Kyiv will force the enemy to reduce activity on the Southern and Eastern fronts. In the future, after reaching Odessa and creating a bridgehead there, the Russian army could strike simultaneously from there and from the territory of Belarus to Western Ukraine, cutting off its Central part from the countries of the NATO bloc, and hence from the supply of weapons, ammunition, fuel and fuel and lubricants for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine .

Mobilization and changing the format of the special operation to a full-fledged war will enable Russia to complete the campaign in its favor by the summer of 2023.
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  1. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 24 September 2022 10: 34
    +5
    Now, if right at the beginning of this operation the main goal was to defeat the ukrovermacht and destroy communications, and for some reason did not run into fortified areas in the Donbass, now everything would obviously be much more fun .. And if back in 2014 they went to the end, everything would in general, it ended in a couple of months ... I’m already silent about the economy and all sorts of gas pipelines there .. Involuntarily, a reasonable question is brewing - aren’t our leaders making too many mistakes? Don't you have to pay the country and the people for their soplezhuy impotent policy? Are they generally able to adequately assess situations? How much can you jump on a rake?
    1. Mobius Offline Mobius
      Mobius 24 September 2022 15: 11
      +11
      Quote from Paul3390
      Involuntarily, a reasonable question is brewing - aren't our leaders making too many mistakes?

      Too much, even too much yes , and even where, as it would seem, it is simply impossible to allow them.
      But - "manage" ...

      Yes, mistakes are bad. But even worse, those who allow them ALWAYS go unpunished ...
    2. Lev Rudey Offline Lev Rudey
      Lev Rudey (Lev Rudey) 25 September 2022 16: 38
      +1
      Do you know such a magic word - CONTRACT?
  2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 24 September 2022 11: 25
    -1
    Putin will never declare war
    1. moran Offline moran
      moran (Andrei) 24 September 2022 23: 37
      +1
      do we really need it? It seems that even without an announcement, something happens ....
      1. Mobius Offline Mobius
        Mobius 25 September 2022 05: 24
        +4
        Quote: moran
        do we really need it? It seems that even without an announcement, something happens ....

        Here in this - "it seems", and "something is working out" is the whole snag ...
  3. tkot973 Offline tkot973
    tkot973 (Konstantin) 24 September 2022 17: 59
    +3
    No need for illusions. Mobilization and changing the format of the special operation to a full-fledged war will NOT enable Russia to complete the campaign in its favor by the summer of 2023.
    Our country is almost entirely under the rule of ghouls, and it is still not clear who Putin himself is, it is not clear whose side he is on - the people or the oligarchy. Thus, mobilize at least 100 million, without the desire to win, there will be no victory.
    And besides this, there is another problem, perhaps worse - technology, or rather its absence. No matter what anyone says - that we have the best machine guns, tanks, planes, missiles, etc. - all this is there, but not designed for a real conflict - the vast majority of modern weapons are either in single copies, or in the state of a prototype, or even present only on paper. The question is - what will those 300 thousand reservists fight with?
    So there is no need to talk about any completion by the summer of 2023, only if this is not a surrender, mind me.
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 29 September 2022 10: 48
      +2
      what will those 300 thousand reservists fight with?

      reservists will not fight.
      quite rightly written:

      provide strategic depth of defense and release the most combat-ready

      those. reservists will (we will ...) dig trenches in November-February, sit in them with pneumonia, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not just have to occupy the area or n / a (as near Kharkov / Izyum), but spend a certain amount of shells and time .

      God forbid, at least someone will explain to the mobilized how to make drainage wells and drainage outlets in the trenches.
      And they gave out shovels/picks.
  4. Viktor fm Offline Viktor fm
    Viktor fm (Victor) 24 September 2022 21: 41
    0
    The thing is that the commanding civilians do not understand military sciences, and the performers are embarrassed to correct them, the Zhukovs have transferred.
  5. usm5 Offline usm5
    usm5 (George) 24 September 2022 21: 46
    +3
    In fact, the true goal of the SVO was the return of Russian lands, which were taken away from historical Russia by deceit. But in order to come to an understanding of this simple idea for the majority of the population of Russia and the population of friendly countries, all these events have been necessary since 2014. This, unfortunately, is the principle of life: "They lose in passing, but return in agony." It is especially impossible to accelerate here, because you can easily end up in a world war.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 25 September 2022 00: 07
    +1
    Again, the intoxicated division of the skins of unkilled bears and attention to some formal signs ...

    It will no longer be shelling the territory of Russia, as it is now, but the territories of Russia, newly annexed with hostilities ......

    Considering that they recognized the LDNR and K within the boundaries of a certain year, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now fighting inside them, and are not going to give up at the snap of their fingers, then it’s just casuistry.
  7. Yuri Bryanskiy Offline Yuri Bryanskiy
    Yuri Bryanskiy (Yuri Bryansky) 25 September 2022 17: 16
    0
    Now we need about 700 thousand fighters
  8. Ivanushka-555 Offline Ivanushka-555
    Ivanushka-555 (Ivan) 25 September 2022 18: 37
    +3
    At the end of August 2022, we began to reap the bitter fruits of the Kyiv regime

    ... No, the author, these are the bitter fruits of the activities of our incompetent top management.
  9. Ivanushka-555 Offline Ivanushka-555
    Ivanushka-555 (Ivan) 26 September 2022 04: 21
    0
    Isn't it easier to start with Poland and Romania? NATO is given to fight with us, but we still won’t start with it. The destruction of energy, transport and other things in the west of Ukraine will be a good addition to this decisive step. Then you look and arms will stop coming to the eastern front.
    1. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 28 September 2022 23: 57
      0
      Yes, but only in the form of sabotage. Can we..?
  10. Rust1981 Offline Rust1981
    Rust1981 (R) 26 September 2022 11: 16
    0
    Don't say "hop" until you've jumped over. Write better "plans to finish yours by the summer of 2023". The situation changes too drastically from month to month.
  11. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
    Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 28 September 2022 23: 29
    +1
    I would like to, BUT:
    1. The word war is not used (unprofitable, because then the UN mechanism for enforcement of peace, including by force) should be activated)
    2. The infrastructure in Lviv will not be fully bombed until it is saturated with our new weapons. They say that Caliber is already being shot down, and according to the US media, after 2 months. they will be given new air defense. Or powerful suppression by old rocket-bombs in the style of "carpet bombing" (ie, up to a multiple increase in bombings and, again, up to a multiple increase in the rate of replenishment of the arsenal).
    3. Both Belarus and Odessa will not have enough personnel even with + 1 million mobilized. The front will be stretched many times more than now. And now we haven't been coming for a long time. And if there are enough drugs, then there will not be enough normal equipment for them: modern, not "Afghan" armor, optics (even cheap collimators), comfortable shoes, first aid kits, the same drones. I am silent about thermal imagers. Already, the mobilized are buying everything themselves except for AK, BC and food. Broniks cheaper than 50 tons cannot be found ...
    4. Of the relative pluses - many argue that the number of “mobiles” is no longer 300 thousand, but more and in total they will reach at least 1 million during this wave. This is actually very logical: you can’t lose, you can’t immediately report a million mobilized either (for panic), we need to prepare, NATO is already raising the stakes ("Nord Stream" was brazenly, openly, with a smirk), our 300 thousand are already answered (more modern weapons, more NATO personnel in the form of mercenaries - of course, everything will be quiet, and our General Staff will be fooled by talking "we will not supply tanks, Congress is against it"). Therefore, the number of those called up immediately was classified.
    5. P.4 is also the main disadvantage - who will remain working (guest workers ..?) And when / if we win, who will inhabit and protect this entire territory ..?
    6. For the victory of mobilization, there is little and no reason for optimism at all. Victory is possible only with a multiple increase in the number of new weapons, the intensity of the bombing of infrastructure, primarily in the Zapadensky regions of the Banderlogs, to the state of "zero", covert retaliation operations against US bases and facilities anywhere in the world (the Arabs will be FOR), sending at least 100 thousand. " home-couch" security forces to the NVO zone (and for this - a serious change of power, since hundreds of thousands of riot policemen, well-fed and well-paid, are now sitting at home, in case the rallies are dispersed, while now they are calling for teachers and engineers who are really needed by the country, in contrast from blockheads). And above all, the authorities need to stop "chewing snot" and play the role of a party to negotiations "with Western partners", we all pay for their/his whims and mistakes.
    Are such changes possible?
    It seems that yes, but only in the event of the loss of any hope for our clique for a warm old age in the West, and this is not fast and certainly not in the summer of 2023. That is, only with a serious breakdown of this most powerful clique.
  12. South North Offline South North
    South North (don ost) 2 October 2022 15: 33
    0
    we fight in spite of
    the Kremlin rests
    forced to make the right decisions