When partial mobilization can turn the tide on the Ukrainian fronts

President Putin's decision today to begin partial mobilization in the RF Armed Forces is undoubtedly a turning point in the entire future course of the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, which, quite possibly, will soon receive a completely different legal status. It really inspired all caring people on both sides of the front line, who are looking forward to Russia's victory. But when is it really worth waiting for a turning point?

Having carefully analyzed the statements of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the Minister of Defense on the issue of partial mobilization, I would like to draw attention to a number of key points.

First of all, we would like to note that President Putin reintroduced the somewhat forgotten word “Novorossiya” into circulation, with which the “Russian Spring” began in 2014, gradually transforming into the “Crimean Spring”:

I want to emphasize that we know that the majority of people living in the territories liberated from neo-Nazis, and these are, first of all, the historical lands of Novorossiya, do not want to be under the yoke of the neo-Nazi regime. In Zaporozhye, in the Kherson region, in Lugansk and Donetsk, they have seen and are seeing the atrocities that neo-Nazis are doing in the occupied areas of the Kharkov region. The heirs of Bandera and Nazi punishers kill people, torture them, throw them in prison, settle scores, crack down on, torment civilians.

The foregoing gives us reason to believe that at least the South-East of Ukraine is a priority target for the liberation by the allied forces. There is not the slightest doubt that the whole of historical Novorossiya must leave Kyiv under the hand of Moscow. Let's hope that upon reaching this strategic goal, our troops will drive the enemy up to the Polish border.

The second thing I also want to pay attention to. Judging by the statement of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the People's Militia of the DPR and LPR after the referenda will merge in one form or another into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Already now, President Putin has set the goal of equalizing the “militiamen” of Donbass with Russian contract soldiers both in rights and in terms of the level of equipment, which has previously repeatedly provoked harsh and fair criticism:

In this regard, I have already given instructions to the government and the Ministry of Defense in full and in the shortest possible time to determine the legal status of volunteers, as well as fighters of the units of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. It should be the same as that of regular servicemen of the Russian army, including material, medical support, and social guarantees. Particular attention should be paid to organizing the supply of volunteer units and units of the people's militia of Donbass. technique and equipment.

And it is right. The conditions under which the mobilized "policemen" of the LDNR are forced to confront the Ukrainian military, trained and armed according to the standards of the NATO bloc, can only be called a feat.

Finally, the stated approach to conducting partial mobilization is very correct. Militarypolitical the country's leadership tried to reassure the "soldier's mothers" in their fears that a military commissar with a district police officer would come for a student son. No, it won't.

The mobilization will not be massive, as in Ukraine, but partial, affecting only military professionals from the reserve who have the appropriate level of training and the military registration specialties that are really needed at the front, the Supreme Commander explained:

Only citizens who are currently in the reserve, and above all those who served in the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience, will be subject to conscription for military service. Those called up for military service will undergo additional military training without fail, taking into account the experience of a special military operation, before being sent to units.

The upper "ceiling" is designated as 300 servicemen, moreover, they will not be called up all at once, but gradually. At the same time, it is extremely important that those who have been mobilized will be equated in rights with contract soldiers and volunteers of the last wave. This guarantees those called upon a high level of pay and an appropriate social package, which can only be welcomed.

It remains to answer the main question - when exactly should we expect a turning point on the Ukrainian fronts?

Taking into account the time required for retraining and combat coordination, replenishment will be able to begin to arrive en masse as early as the end of autumn 2022. Perhaps it is then that a large-scale counteroffensive of the RF Armed Forces will take place on Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and even Odessa, rumors about which have been circulating for a long time. The number of the Russian group in the South-East of Ukraine will increase dramatically by the end of winter - the beginning of spring 2023. The reservists will be involved mainly in the defense of the already liberated territories, releasing contractors and volunteers for active offensive operations. There is a high probability that it is then that a radical change will occur, after which the Kyiv regime will lose both most of its controlled territory, and a combat-ready army, and resources to continue further resistance.
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  1. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 21 September 2022 15: 52
    In fact, it’s not at all a fact that these 300 thousand will be enough .. the Ukrainians will still have a numerical superiority, besides, our reserves will certainly not get to the front until the New Year, they need to be retrained somehow and put together units. And the West and the ukrovermacht will not sleep like iron all this time, obviously preparing their own .. This is the price for the catastrophic unwillingness to announce mobilization back in May. Although Tsegabonia has already spent four waves during this time ..
  2. zuuukoo Offline zuuukoo
    zuuukoo (Sergei) 21 September 2022 15: 55
    Quote from Paul3390
    In fact, it’s not at all a fact that these 300 thousand will be enough ..

    Let's just say, given what I have learned about our authorities over the past 20 years, I will never be surprised if it is really planned to put 1 into service.
    Unless, of course, they can "digest" (accept, organize, supply and train) so many people.
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 21 September 2022 16: 22
    First 300, then more...
    The authorities often say first one thing, then another, and then act in the third ...
  4. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
    Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 21 September 2022 16: 31
    We urgently need to destroy the infrastructure of the west of Ukraine, I think so.
  5. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 21 September 2022 21: 21
    Pessimistically. The author often raises topical questions, to which the answer is sometimes in the field of fortune-telling on cards or coffee grounds. The problem is that much of the promised V.V.P. not forgotten. even without beginning. Today we have a watershed in civil society and we will see a demarcation of who will leave, who will give an obviously false reservation, who will simply pay off, and who will go to war ... With the existing "basman courts", what can be expected - a crooked mirror ...
    Optimistically. Finally, society realizes who is who in the Russian Federation. All the personalities hiding under the patriots will show their ins and outs - they have already shown with their departure to Israel and other countries. The cleansing of the country from the parasites of Chubais, Friedmans and other avens and various Western companies on the neck of the Russian Federation has begun ....
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 21 September 2022 23: 58
    Partial mobilization will in no way change the situation at the front without revising the strategy of warfare, which in no way hinders the work of the state apparatus, builds up trade relations, allows NATO to freely supply Ukraine with weapons, the General Staff to maneuver troops, industry to provide the army with everything necessary for waging war
    The accession of the DPR-LPR, Zaporozhye and Kherson provinces to the Russian Federation as subjects of the federation (none of them even hinted at their unification into Novorossia-Little Russia, like none of the sovereigns in the Russian Federation) does not solve the problem of anti-Russia - the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
    Rumors about the offensive of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation on Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and even Odessa have been circulating for a long time, which means they reach the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    1. Peace Peace. Offline Peace Peace.
      Peace Peace. (Tumar Tumar) 22 September 2022 08: 23
      If with the accession of the Ukrainian republics to the Russian Federation, the fire on them from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine does not stop, then what will happen? Is this already an announcement of war, or what?
  7. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 22 September 2022 00: 22
    To whom is the war, and to whom is the mother dear. Today is war. this is not a war in the days of the USSR, then they defended the people's state, their personal property, they defended their family. Now in Russia there is capitalism, 1,5% of the population owns all the wealth of Russia, 95% of the population are poor. The question arises of whom to defend, to defend the capitalists - no one wants the oligarchs. The issue of Ukraine by the authorities of the Russian Federation is not defined. The authorities are afraid to give a definition, in the form of a law, that the territory of all Ukraine is the property of the Russian Federation. Uncertainty leads the Russian Federation to new troubles. This is not a computer game, people really die here, they become disabled. The authorities of the Russian Federation must decide whether Ukraine is the business of the oligarchs or is it the restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia. You can put a million under arms and not reach the goal if it does not exist or if it is not accepted by the people.
  8. Moscow Offline Moscow
    Moscow 22 September 2022 00: 24
    Russia has not yet “seriously started anything” in Ukraine.

    Apparently, before that there was a preparatory period of 7 months - in order to "harness" it.
    To go, you need another 2 months, that is, the return on partial mobilization will work and the green light will disappear for the effectiveness of artillery and aviation.
    And then, everything will start in a serious way, for example:
    1. For any terrorist attack on representatives of the Administrations of new regions, cities or the population, the buildings of the SBU (Gestapo) with personnel in large cities must be destroyed. Why save them? Russia doesn't need Nazis.
    2. A law on the partial abolition of the moratorium on the death penalty for foreign mercenaries in Ukraine should be adopted. Without this, mercenaries multiply and know that they will be protected, they will create good conditions, and then they will simply be exchanged.
    3. To cover up the humiliating program for Russia, ala-saving the world in the form of motor ships to Europe with food from Odessa.
    4. Designate at least 10 characters in Ukraine who will be declared war criminals on the basis of 8 years of work by the Prosecutor General's Office of the Russian Federation. Otherwise, it is not clear what this organization is doing if it does not refer cases to a military court?
    5. Create a deputy commission in the State Duma of the Russian Federation and check our General Staff, the RF Ministry of Defense and the military-industrial complex, as well as federal and regional authorities in terms of compliance with the law "On mobilization" and readiness for the most difficult military situations.
  9. Yuri V.A Offline Yuri V.A
    Yuri V.A (Yuri) 22 September 2022 07: 47
    What an offensive on snowdrifts, the enemy will not stand on ceremony with bridges and railway junctions. As the Kharkov "regrouping" showed, there is no interaction between the Russian units, so we will liberate the Donbass by winter with a creak and the Great Truce will come
  10. w-schmidt-adelsheimt-online.de (Vladimir Schmidt) 22 September 2022 10: 24
    As always, they chewed for a long time until they gave birth, or many people think that it will resolve itself. It's time to start already so that it's not too late.
  11. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 22 September 2022 11: 25
    Is it planned to retreat before the end of autumn? Where is air superiority? Have Ukrainian air defenses learned to destroy? So we will preach a humane attitude towards the enemy, paying for it with the lives of civilians in the liberated territories? The Ministry of Defense and the General Staff did their best, so it would be necessary to improve, destroying everything that is possible from the enemy, and not creating green corridors for NATO weapons and mercenaries, and not guarding the tour. trips of Western leaders to Zelensky.
  12. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 23 September 2022 13: 47
    What will the mobilization of 300 military give if the railway and other routes for the transport of Western equipment and drugs of mercenaries from Europe to South-Eastern Ukraine are not further destroyed? Well, the United States will print another 000 yards of $. The West will increase the supply yet ... ? only the losses will increase. And if half a year ago the crossing points would have been gouged, the entire railway network of Ukraine in the west of Ukraine, Lviv, Ivanofrankivsk ...... and everything else .... then maybe these 100 would not would be needed. Why are we protecting the Zapadenshchina? We need to take care of our own, not Banderlogs. Who needs roads with Europe, if there is no trade anyway. Through the sea, in the end we will float, if relations are improved.
  13. Darius Offline Darius
    Darius (Boris Brown) 29 September 2022 12: 41
    But how did it come to the situation of the code that you need to announce "partial mobilization" !? Why didn't the heads of the General Staff officers who planned this disastrous operation going "according to plan" fly off!? Where did the vaunted Russian CPSU go, which forced the Ministry of Defense to humiliatingly beg for drones from Iranian ayatollahs !? Everywhere and everywhere window dressing and Potemkin villages