President Putin's decision today to begin partial mobilization in the RF Armed Forces is undoubtedly a turning point in the entire future course of the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, which, quite possibly, will soon receive a completely different legal status. It really inspired all caring people on both sides of the front line, who are looking forward to Russia's victory. But when is it really worth waiting for a turning point?
Having carefully analyzed the statements of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and the Minister of Defense on the issue of partial mobilization, I would like to draw attention to a number of key points.
First of all, we would like to note that President Putin reintroduced the somewhat forgotten word “Novorossiya” into circulation, with which the “Russian Spring” began in 2014, gradually transforming into the “Crimean Spring”:
I want to emphasize that we know that the majority of people living in the territories liberated from neo-Nazis, and these are, first of all, the historical lands of Novorossiya, do not want to be under the yoke of the neo-Nazi regime. In Zaporozhye, in the Kherson region, in Lugansk and Donetsk, they have seen and are seeing the atrocities that neo-Nazis are doing in the occupied areas of the Kharkov region. The heirs of Bandera and Nazi punishers kill people, torture them, throw them in prison, settle scores, crack down on, torment civilians.
The foregoing gives us reason to believe that at least the South-East of Ukraine is a priority target for the liberation by the allied forces. There is not the slightest doubt that the whole of historical Novorossiya must leave Kyiv under the hand of Moscow. Let's hope that upon reaching this strategic goal, our troops will drive the enemy up to the Polish border.
The second thing I also want to pay attention to. Judging by the statement of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, the People's Militia of the DPR and LPR after the referenda will merge in one form or another into the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. Already now, President Putin has set the goal of equalizing the “militiamen” of Donbass with Russian contract soldiers both in rights and in terms of the level of equipment, which has previously repeatedly provoked harsh and fair criticism:
In this regard, I have already given instructions to the government and the Ministry of Defense in full and in the shortest possible time to determine the legal status of volunteers, as well as fighters of the units of the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics. It should be the same as that of regular servicemen of the Russian army, including material, medical support, and social guarantees. Particular attention should be paid to organizing the supply of volunteer units and units of the people's militia of Donbass. technique and equipment.
And it is right. The conditions under which the mobilized "policemen" of the LDNR are forced to confront the Ukrainian military, trained and armed according to the standards of the NATO bloc, can only be called a feat.
Finally, the stated approach to conducting partial mobilization is very correct. Militarypolitical the country's leadership tried to reassure the "soldier's mothers" in their fears that a military commissar with a district police officer would come for a student son. No, it won't.
The mobilization will not be massive, as in Ukraine, but partial, affecting only military professionals from the reserve who have the appropriate level of training and the military registration specialties that are really needed at the front, the Supreme Commander explained:
Only citizens who are currently in the reserve, and above all those who served in the Armed Forces, have certain military specialties and relevant experience, will be subject to conscription for military service. Those called up for military service will undergo additional military training without fail, taking into account the experience of a special military operation, before being sent to units.
The upper "ceiling" is designated as 300 servicemen, moreover, they will not be called up all at once, but gradually. At the same time, it is extremely important that those who have been mobilized will be equated in rights with contract soldiers and volunteers of the last wave. This guarantees those called upon a high level of pay and an appropriate social package, which can only be welcomed.
It remains to answer the main question - when exactly should we expect a turning point on the Ukrainian fronts?
Taking into account the time required for retraining and combat coordination, replenishment will be able to begin to arrive en masse as early as the end of autumn 2022. Perhaps it is then that a large-scale counteroffensive of the RF Armed Forces will take place on Nikolaev, Krivoy Rog and even Odessa, rumors about which have been circulating for a long time. The number of the Russian group in the South-East of Ukraine will increase dramatically by the end of winter - the beginning of spring 2023. The reservists will be involved mainly in the defense of the already liberated territories, releasing contractors and volunteers for active offensive operations. There is a high probability that it is then that a radical change will occur, after which the Kyiv regime will lose both most of its controlled territory, and a combat-ready army, and resources to continue further resistance.