Gas crisis in Europe: why the upcoming spring will be more dangerous than winter

European natural gas traders are well aware that the sector is facing a difficult winter. However, some have begun to make bold predictions and dream that perhaps prices have already reached their peak this year, having stabilized. Their hopes are based on the fact that the EU has reduced its dependence on gas from Russia from 40% to 9%, which has deprived the Kremlin of the ability to influence the internal affairs of Europe. But the worst forecasts of specialists do not concern the coming winter, but the spring of next year. This is written by The Financial Times in an article by columnist David Sheppard.

As the expert explains, the cautious optimistic conclusions of some traders are based on one interesting symptom that took place some time ago: after Moscow announced a complete shutdown of Nord Stream, gas prices expectedly soared and immediately fell overnight. This indicates the passage of the peak of hype and panic in the markets. Also in the piggy bank of positive News In Europe, experts attribute full storage facilities that have reached the all-European mark of 85%, which should be enough for wintering.

However, commodity prices remain highly inflated by historical standards: they are almost 10 times higher than the average for the last decade, and "stabilizing" them at this level does not bode well for the gas industry and the industry dependent on it. In addition, UGS facilities filled with great difficulty for the winter will most likely be completely empty after a hard and long winter without pumping through the gas pipeline. At the same time, there will be nowhere to take gas for current needs. The further scenario of catastrophe seems obvious.

Europe will have to restock after the winter, with no Russian exports at all, unlike in the first six months of this year. The EU's plan to cut gas demand by an average of about 15 percent this winter already looks helpless and inadequate. Tom Marcek-Manser, an expert at energy consultancy ICIS, estimates that Europe cut consumption by 138 million cubic meters a day, or about 16%, and even then in the summer. But it needs to increase savings to 300 million cubic meters a day in winter, when demand is twice as high as summer consumption. In late spring - early summer, the world will see a real "ceiling" and a peak in natural gas prices, experts summarize bleakly.
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  1. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 19 September 2022 12: 43
    The question is - why did we allow them to pump gas over the summer, at least for this winter? Wouldn't it be easier to talk to Geyropa when the vaults were empty?
    1. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 19 September 2022 13: 13
      tried to "get through" to the minds of these citizens. failed. the "armor" turned out to be stronger and the fear of the united forces is stronger than before this catastrophe (which will still come soon)
  2. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 19 September 2022 13: 20
    Quote from Paul3390
    The question is - why did we allow them to pump gas over the summer, at least for this winter? Wouldn't it be easier to talk to Geyropa when the vaults were empty?

    The question arises, how will traditional politicians carry on a conversation with that "something" that will not have a gender? After all, Khryantsia is following this path, and the United States already has a general of indeterminate sex, and soon their president will be bleached black with narrow eyes, two penises and a vagina - I won’t be surprised at this. I am not a racist, but with regard to American blacks, I am completely on the side of their own animal rights activists. And I am very happy that some even know how to brew beer in the Oval Office. Progress.
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 19 September 2022 18: 35
    Gas has already been pumped into UGS facilities at high prices, so the products of industrial enterprises will not be competitive. Sales of expensive products will decrease, people will not be able to buy them. In foreign markets, these products will not find demand, they will be replaced by the products of those countries that have access to energy resources at low prices. Businesses in the EU will start going bankrupt. People will start losing their jobs. As a result, they won't have any money.
    These processes will take some time. Therefore, the decline in the standard of living, which will begin at the beginning of winter, will reach the bottom closer to spring. And with no prospect of improvement.

    Germany is waiting for a wave of bankruptcies due to anti-Russian sanctions - the head of the Bundestag energy committee Klaus Ernst.

    They finally got it.
    It's not just the lack of gas, as David Sheppard writes. He expresses the narrow view of the gas dealers. Bankrupt enterprises will stop consuming it, but people will be left without wages. There will be no money for utilities, food ...
    No one will remember about helping Ukraine.