Why Zelensky had to resort to a deliberately failed offensive


President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, after ordering a dual counteroffensive earlier this month in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions, went on a deliberate gamble, writes Daniel L. Davis, a former US Army lieutenant colonel who has traveled to war zones four times, writes on the American Internet 1945 edition (19FortyFive).


According to Davis, the course of the Russian military operation in Ukraine, focusing on pushing Ukrainian troops out of the Donbass, generally worked against Zelensky and left no choice but to "force" him to sanction "any attack with a chance of success." Among the main motives that "spur" Zelensky, two are named: Russia's preparation of a "plebiscite" in the territories of Ukraine taken under control and the desire to show the West that "military assistance" from its side is needed and gives at least some effect.

In connection with the latter, it was very significant to demonstrate this to the Western ministers of defense on the eve of their scheduled meeting at the Ramstein airbase. Many in the West have already begun to question whether it makes sense to continue supplying Ukraine with modern weapons, while there has been no evidence of "reclaiming" territory with what Kyiv has already received.

An offensive that failed completely could be disastrous both for Ukraine's leaders personally and for the long-term effort to obtain more and heavier weapons from the West.

Davis notes.

He also recalled his recent findings that “ideally” for Ukraine, in order to create an offensive combat capability, it would be necessary to obtain a significant amount of modern military equipment. equipment from the West, and then spend nine months to a year recruiting, shaping and training up to 100 people. In fact, a different strategy was chosen.

Zelenskiy apparently concluded that Ukraine could not hold out for even a year and decided to attempt an offensive under less than ideal conditions… We now know that the Ukrainian leader opted for a multi-pronged attack on two weakly defended zones that would give his troops the best chance of success

writes Davis, and concludes that the West will most likely “have to moderate its enthusiasm for Zelensky’s successes,” and in general, little fundamentally changed during the course of the conflict.

The tactical gain was also small. Since the meeting of Western defense ministers in Ramstein, headlines in Western newspapers have been trumpeting nearly $3 billion in new aid to Ukraine. However, behind the large dollar figure, it was revealed that the only new combat platforms included in the next "aid" package was one battery (4 guns) of the smallest howitzers with the smallest range in the US arsenal - 105-mm towed guns.
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  1. zuuukoo Offline zuuukoo
    zuuukoo (Sergei) 17 September 2022 12: 42
    0
    From the Kharkov region, our aircraft regrouped so hastily that they left a bunch of intact equipment. Not to mention the representatives of the CAA and just "sympathizers".
    Under Kherson, the zone of control of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is slowly but expanding.

    We would have such "failures".

    ZY: It took more than a month to capture Izyum in the spring of the second army of the world. I think comments are unnecessary here.
    1. Victor M. Offline Victor M.
      Victor M. (Victor) 17 September 2022 13: 12
      -3
      And who is your bullshit aimed at? Believe me, people with such an education, whom you rely on with your fakes, do not read such articles. )
      1. Andrew13 Offline Andrew13
        Andrew13 (Andrei) 17 September 2022 22: 25
        0
        he wrote everything to the point.
    2. Corsair Offline Corsair
      Corsair (DNR) 17 September 2022 16: 13
      -2
      Quote from: zuuukoo
      It took more than a month to take Izyum in the spring of the second army of the world

      Dill, posing for the camera, declare control over the once resort village of Shchurovo.
      Another settlement lost by the allied forces during this counteroffensive.

      President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, having ordered a double counter-offensive at the beginning of this month - in the Kherson and Kharkiv regions, went on a deliberate adventure

      In the Kharkov direction, where larger forces were involved - a counteroffensive, in the Kherson direction - a powerful, but still distracting blow ...
  2. zuuukoo Offline zuuukoo
    zuuukoo (Sergei) 17 September 2022 20: 26
    +2
    Quote: Corsair
    In the Kharkov direction, where larger forces were involved - a counteroffensive, in the Kherson direction - a powerful, but still distracting blow ...

    This Arestovich reported, as I understand it?
    There were blows here and there. It just didn't work out with Kherson, so he became "distracting".
    And, as far as one can comprehend the past informational background (the crests were silent about the success of the offensive until the last), they were preparing to declare Kharkiv as a "distraction" if it hadn't grown together.

    ZY: Again, rewinding the info from the TG channels and even the MO, one gets the impression that the army on Kharkov was one and a half crippled. And the main forces were some kind of volunteer Barsy and the National Guard.
    Neither one nor the other is particularly adapted for military operations and, in general, the Federal Law for some reason turned out to be at the forefront.

    Which, IMHO, only adds questions to the Ministry of Defense.
  3. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 17 September 2022 20: 32
    +1
    Semite Zelensky (formerly Semite Valtsman-Poroshenko) was forced into the presidency to play off and destroy the Slavic peoples - Ukrainians and Russians, the Russian Semites answer the same. We have an anti-Slavic conspiracy, it's time to throw off the anti-Slavic ghouls from the neck, both Russian and Ukrainian ...
    1. Andrew13 Offline Andrew13
      Andrew13 (Andrei) 17 September 2022 22: 28
      0
      read the comment above by Viti M., with such dump? For some reason, they are still% 50, if not more.
  4. Benjamin Offline Benjamin
    Benjamin (Benjamin) 18 September 2022 08: 17
    +1
    Unfortunately Their unsuccessful offensives force acts of goodwill or line alignments, our Armed Forces
  5. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 18 September 2022 10: 55
    +1
    Why Zelensky had to resort to a deliberately failed offensive

    As soon as you don’t have to dodge, finding yourself in a difficult situation, even pulling a poor owl on a globe; mdaaa... winked
  6. Olgerd Tees Offline Olgerd Tees
    Olgerd Tees (Olgerd Tees) 18 September 2022 13: 44
    0
    Quote from: Vox_Populi
    pull the poor owl on the globe

    Nu-nu. The opinions of our "sofa patriots" who yearn for "only big victories" surprisingly coincided with the comments of their "colleagues" - amers - directly to Davis in "1945". Basically there is a stench and "refutations" - inflated coming out numbers about "thousand units of equipment" (it is not known what and in what form) and "thousand sq. Km" such as "liberated" territories (more and more "rounding up "- so soon there is a chance to get an area almost comparable to the entire LPR / DPR).
  7. Olgerd Tees Offline Olgerd Tees
    Olgerd Tees (Olgerd Tees) 18 September 2022 13: 55
    0
    Although in the original on "1945" - rarely, but there were other comments. Here's a screenshot from Google Translate:

  8. Vadim Sharygin Offline Vadim Sharygin
    Vadim Sharygin (Citizen) 20 September 2022 11: 53
    0
    It is best to ask the residents of Izyum and other towns and villages about the failed Zelensky offensive or the victorious retreat of our troops.
  9. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 22 September 2022 06: 27
    0
    Quote from: zuuukoo
    ZY: It took more than a month to capture Izyum in the spring of the second army of the world. I think comments are unnecessary here.

    It took two or three weeks for the Russian army to capture almost the entire Kherson region with minimal losses. To return at least part of this territory, Bandera took six months and huge losses, thousands of dead and hundreds of pieces of various equipment.
    We will leave such "successes" to our opponents. Let them rejoice in such failures.
  10. Rinat Offline Rinat
    Rinat (Rinat) 22 September 2022 06: 33
    0
    Quote: Vadim Sharygin
    It is best to ask the residents of Izyum and other towns and villages about the failed Zelensky offensive or the victorious retreat of our troops.

    That's about people who are their own, and you have to think. I sincerely worry about those who remained under the enemy.
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