Bloomberg predicts Russia's future based on South Africa's sanctions past

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Russia's ability to withstand economic pressure longer than any other country hit by sanctions is due to its autocratic the economy. But its resilience turns into stagflation and slow degradation. Because sanctions are not a panacea. They are a risk and an unexpected result, a small chance of success. And while Russia holds the record for sanctions, surpassing even Venezuela and Iran, past experience can help predict Russia's future. With the help of such “arguments”, Bloomberg columnist Clara Ferreira Marquez tries to consider it.

As the expert writes, in the end, many imperfect sanctions develop into one unambiguous result. After all, this has already happened once with another major exporter of commodities. We are talking about South Africa since apartheid. Then Pretoria held policies repressions, aggression against neighboring states, which resulted in an unprecedented sanctions campaign by the West, which ended with a change in the ruling regime, a complete transformation of the state.



Of course, the Russian economy is much more developed, powerful and has its own gas and oil, unlike South Africa. Yet there are similarities

writes Marquez.

The isolation of Pretoria was not in vain, although it did not work in the first year of the introduction of restrictions. In addition, as in South Africa at the end of the 80s, Russia of the 2022 model is characterized by stagnant processes in the economy and global uncompetitiveness.

The fate of South Africa is a telling reminder that when things are going really badly, additional sanctions, no matter how simple, encourage the elites to push for negotiations with the West, even bypassing the official leadership line, Marquez said.

It is more than obvious that the sanctions, in fact, should not be deafening immediately, since the world needs oil and gas, other raw materials supplied from Russia. But the slow suffocating effect of them is felt

the expert admits.

South Africa has tried to survive by creating shim companies to supply Europe and diverting most of its exports to Asia, much like Russia. However, the flight of investors and the closed doors of international organizations have taken their toll. Moreover, sanctions do not create a crack in the economy, they exacerbate it. Apartheid-era South Africa and today's Russia had similar divisions before the imposition of Western sanctions.

An attempt to exist in a parallel economic and partly political reality is fraught with profound consequences, such as “extra pay for behavior”, as well as the sale of raw materials at the “outcast price”. The overall effect of a large number of restrictions is gradually accumulating, Marquez concluded.
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  1. Bulanov
    Bulanov
    +4
    14 September 2022 09: 32
    Then Pretoria pursued a policy of repression, aggression against neighboring states, which resulted in an unprecedented sanctions campaign by the West, which ended with a change in the ruling regime, a complete transformation of the state.

    Russia, unlike South Africa, has grown neighboring states out of nothing. The policy of repression is now being pursued by the United States. It was they who unleashed many wars after the liquidation of the USSR.

    1991 - large-scale military action against Iraq
    1992-1994 - occupation of Somalia
    1998 - Sudan. Americans destroy a pharmaceutical plant with a missile strike, claiming it produces nerve gas.
    1999 - ignoring the norms of international law, bypassing the UN and the Security Council, the United States NATO forces launched a campaign of 78-day aerial bombardments of the sovereign state of Yugoslavia.
    2001 - the invasion of Afghanistan.
    2003 - the bombing of Iraq.
    2011 - Libya.
    2013 - Syria
    2014 - Ukraine

    And who does this "expert" consider "negroes" in Russia?
    Yes, and South Africa, along with India, Brazil and China, is now part of the BRICS together with Russia. And this is half the world!
    1. Pavel Mokshanov_2
      Pavel Mokshanov_2
      +1
      14 September 2022 11: 02
      I agree with the author. At the expense of Russia, all the former republics have risen. They created industry, established agriculture. Nevertheless, after the collapse, Russia suddenly turned out to be an occupier, and they turned their noses downwind towards the west. If there were now a leader like Stalin and united all the former republics, then it would be possible to put the whole West together with America, no sanctions would be terrible. But the problem is in the local bourgeois, who have grabbed good things, who do not want a return to the former just life for the whole people.
      1. Vladimir Tuzakov
        Vladimir Tuzakov
        0
        15 September 2022 12: 01
        The answer is very clear, because the USSR was not ruled by Russians and raised everyone at the expense of Russia .. When finally Russian patriots begin to rule Russia, because even today it is not visible, and the authorities of Russian patriots are called scoundrels ...
  2. Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar
    +4
    14 September 2022 11: 02
    This aunt Clara Ferreira Marquez, like most of the so-called. “experts”, has no idea about the theory of Marxism, or about historical materialism, or about the Russian Federation. Apparently Bloomberg bought her not as an Expert, but as a political fighter, and such employees only harm Bloomberg's image.
    Russia's ability to withstand economic pressures longer than any other sanctioned country is due to the existing system of governance, sound domestic economic policy, size of territory and natural resources.
    The future of the Russian Federation depends on the loyalty of big capital represented by the RSPP, which directly depends on the level of their income, the lion's share of which is formed on the external, and not on the domestic market with its limited purchasing power and the state policy of social responsibility of business.
  3. vlad127490
    vlad127490
    +1
    15 September 2022 14: 41
    Clara Ferreira Marquez gives a forecast that will only work if the capitalist system develops in the Russian Federation, in which case her comparison of the Russian Federation with South Africa is correct. Since 1917 to 1991 The USSR was constantly under various sanctions of the West, and the result, the USSR was the second world power, consider also the losses in the Civil War, the Great Patriotic War. There were no wars in the USA, there were no losses, but there was only the accumulation of wealth, but the economic growth rate was lower than in the USSR. The USSR developed and grew in this way only due to the fact that power in the country belonged to the people. In the 1990s, a coup d'etat took place in the USSR, capitalists seized power and destroyed the USSR. Everything is changing fast.