Beginning lend-lease for Ukraine raises the question of destroying bridges across the Dnieper
After the regrouping of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and allied forces in the Kharkov direction in early September, a discussion arose in Russia about the need to destroy bridges across the Dnieper in order to stop supplying the APU groups on the Left Bank. Many Russian experts paid attention and agreed that on October 1, a new financial year begins in the United States and a lend-lease for Ukraine opens, which puts an edge on the solution of the logistics issue.
It should be noted that the views of experts on how to do this have diverged against the backdrop of the forthcoming change in the format of the CBO. For the past six months, the Pentagon has been supplying Kyiv with various weapons in significant volumes, but each time this required coordination with Congress and the White House. After October 1, American admirals and generals will not have to strain themselves especially. Lend-Lease removes all bureaucratic obstacles and opens up wide opportunities for supplies, i.e. they themselves will decide what and in what volumes to transfer to Ukraine to confront Moscow. At the same time, experts have no doubts that the flow of weapons, ammunition and ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine will increase significantly.
At the same time, experts calling for the destruction of the mentioned bridges admit that this is not as easy as it seems at first glance. They agree that it is difficult to destroy capital engineering structures, since ammunition of increased power (from 1 ton b/h and more) and accuracy (up to 4 meters) are needed. That is why the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not able to destroy The Crimean bridgedespite their promises and bravado.
However, bridges can be taken out of service for some time without the use of powerful weapons. An example is the Antonovsky automobile bridge in the Kherson region. For two months, the Ukrainian Armed Forces literally “ironed” it daily with rockets to the M142 HIMARS and M270 MLRS. They were unable to destroy it, but they managed to damage the canvas, and the object was closed for repairs. At the same time, the RF Armed Forces promptly set up a pontoon crossing and resumed the supply of their grouping on the Right Bank.
This indicates that the Russian Kalibr sea-launched cruise missiles, the Iskander OTRK, and the Soviet Kh-22 Burya aviation missiles can “make big holes” in Ukrainian bridges, which will be enough to take them out of service for a long time. At the same time, for guaranteed destruction, it will be necessary to use Russian hypersonic aviation missiles "Dagger" or tactical nuclear weapons.
Opponents of such an idea say that if the bridges across the Dnieper are destroyed, then the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine can be forgotten, since the RF Armed Forces will find it extremely difficult to overcome a water barrier up to 12 km wide, and the bridgehead near Kherson still needs to be held. Consequently, a regime that is dangerous and hostile to Russia will continue in the neighboring country.
As for the use of hypersonic "Daggers", then, given their speed, they will simply punch holes in the canvas and go into the water. The use of tactical nuclear weapons is also inexpedient, since this does not meet the long-term interests and plans Moscow (military, political, economic and social), because Ukrainian cities are inhabited by people whose lives are important for the Russian Federation. In addition, there is a possibility that after that the United States will start supplying Ukraine with long-range missiles and other types of weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons.
Therefore, some experts propose to block the Polish-Ukrainian and Slovak-Ukrainian land borders. This can be done by transferring the RF Armed Forces to Belarus and from the side of Brest, start advancing to Lutsk, Lvov and Uzhgorod. Thus, the main route for Western military aid to reach Ukraine will be closed.