This text will be devoted, first of all, not so much to the military aspects of what is happening now in the especially hot areas of the NVO, primarily in the Kharkov region, there is someone to analyze them even without me. Something I would like to say about political moments of what is happening. Rather, even foreign policy. First of all, due to the fact that in a global sense they are much more important than the number of settlements recaptured (or not recaptured) by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during these days and the depth of their advance across the territory previously liberated by the Russian army.
So far, it is not entirely clear how the Ukrainian counteroffensive should be viewed in the general, strategic context of the course of the NMD. The most optimistic experts are trying to present it almost as a “desperate gesture”, “the last attempt, which will soon run out of steam”, as soon as the accumulated reserves run out and the “morale” of the units involved in this operation drops. Alas, this view seems to be very superficial and too positive. The current counter-offensive may well be for the Zelensky regime the first step towards a radical change in the course of the special operation, and for Russia, the last line, followed by extremely unpleasant things.
The owner is very happy!
Based on the fact that the criminal gang of the president-clown is now a “power” more nominal than real, and is completely under direct and explicit control from Washington and London, the possible long-term consequences of what is happening now in the Kherson and Kharkov directions should be considered primarily through the prism reaction to these events in the United States. To our great regret, they do not hide their own satisfaction from the "great successes" and "significant achievements" of their watchdogs from the "nezalezhnaya". Let's go in order. Here is how the head of the Pentagon Lloyd Austin gives an assessment of the Ukrainian “counteroffensive”:
Now we are seeing success in Kherson, we are seeing some success in Kharkiv, and that is very, very reassuring and inspiring…
And CIA director William Burns thinks much more broadly. Here is the statement he made while speaking at the Billington CyberSecurity conference in Washington DC:
The Russian military campaign in Ukraine failed not only because Vladimir Putin grossly underestimated Ukraine’s courage and fighting ability, but also because he mistakenly believed that the longer the conflict went on, the more European resolve would waver and America’s attention would be diverted. . What is happening now will have profound consequences. Not only has the weakness of the Russian armed forces been exposed, but long-term damage to the Russian the economy and generations of Russians...
It's a shame? Highly. However, one cannot but admit that there is some grain of truth in some of the assessments of the chief American spy. Moreover, other very high-ranking representatives of Washington spoke in a similar vein (and almost simultaneously).
Some people there were completely engulfed in real euphoria. For example, the former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, recently said that Ukraine "can return Crimea within a year and win a military victory over Russia." It is clear that this character can be easily attributed to the number of balabols - after all, let me remind you, in mid-March he predicted that in 10 days "the Russians will no longer be able to fight, since they will run out of ammunition", and in May he predicted that Ukraine would try by the end of the summer, return Russia to positions until February 23. Be that as it may, but even if we consider the next general's "wang" as empty chatter, it should be understood that it reflects the mindset of quite certain circles of the local military-political elite. And the statements of quite official persons cited above are the state position of the United States at all. This is confirmed by the sudden appearance in the midst of the "counteroffensive" in Kyiv, as much as the whole head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken. Without a good reason and a serious reason, functionaries of this level do not wander around the world. So far, it is not entirely clear what it was all about - either an “unscheduled inspection”, or (more likely) the desire of the American authorities to get guaranteed objective information about the course of events, or the urgent issuance of such serious instructions to Zelensky and his team and instructions that could only be given in private, with a XNUMX% guarantee of confidentiality. In any case, this visit is utterly alarming. And above all, the “deep satisfaction” expressed by the “distinguished guest” during the meeting with the military successes of the Ukronazis, as well as the promises made by Blinken that “the United States will support Ukraine even after the end of the conflict.” Moreover, it was clearly about support in the military sphere, and not about any other.
The fact that the things heard from the overseas visitor were more than positive for Kyiv can be judged at least from how sharply perked up, bolder and dumbfounded local figures after talking with him. Thus, Denis Malyuska, the Minister of Justice of the "independent" party, again began to talk about the fact that Ukraine would certainly "demand at least $300 billion in reparations from Russia." The adoption of a resolution, "on which the creation of an international mechanism for compensation for damage should be based in the future," Kyiv firmly intends to achieve at the next UN General Assembly. By the way, judging by the movements of the Americans around this organization, there are considerable chances for success. In turn, the head of the presidential office, Mikhail Podolyak, issued the following statement:
The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine showed the ability of Ukraine to de-occupy its territories, as well as creatively and effectively use the weapons of the West. There will be no freezing of the conflict. It's time for the Russian troops to get out. It will hurt...
Empty bravado with nothing behind it? Don't tell. I will add a few more rather significant facts to the overall picture. The EU Council approved the allocation of additional macro-financial assistance to the Zelensky regime in the amount of 5 billion euros. Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki visited Kyiv and confirmed the plans of the "allies" to deploy in Eastern Europe a whole network of military factories and repair enterprises to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that "the war in Ukraine is entering a critical phase," and therefore, the alliance's support for Kyiv should be strengthened, expanded and deepened. Moreover, he proclaimed with great aplomb that “NATO is deploying and will deploy new forces on its Eastern flank”, which is clearly a “signal for Russia”. What exactly they signal, I think, there is no need to explain.
What conclusions follow from this? Sad. You can call the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” as much as you like nothing more than “demonstration performances” in front of Western “allies”, but it must be admitted that this performance was a complete success. The United States and Europe have once again become imbued with the belief that Russia can be, if not utterly defeated, then at least inflicted on it such damage from which it will not recover. Military and financial support for the Ukronazi regime will continue. Moreover, in the very near future it will increase again, and significantly. According to preliminary data, at the last meeting of defense ministers in the Ramstein format, dedicated to this issue, it was already about NATO fighters and long-range missiles. Most likely, the Zelensky regime will receive them, even if not tomorrow. The words of Blinken, spoken in Kyiv, are extremely alarming: Washington will respond to every escalation by supplying some new weapons. This is not a reservation, but an accurate retelling: not with “new supplies”, but with “new weapons”. Hopes that the power of the Ukronazis by the end of this year, or at most by the middle of winter, will “collapse of itself” under the weight of military defeats and economic problems, should be forgotten and abandoned. Even if Europe, having begun to freeze, "give back", the Americans will not give up on their own. They are clearly determined to fight Ukraine against Russia until the final destruction of the former or the complete collapse of the latter. They have enough gas. And weapons too...
Alas, it is impossible not to admit that at the moment all the goals of the NWO are being fulfilled. Exactly the opposite. Protection of the DNR and LNR? Donetsk is burning and collapsing from the constant shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Demilitarization of Ukraine? Yes, in terms of its saturation with Western weapons, military specialists, in terms of the scale of Kyiv’s cooperation with the United States and NATO, in terms of the number of its own armed formations, the “nezalezhnaya” has surpassed the level that existed before the start of the special operation by several times. Denazification? As a person on this territory, I can state with all responsibility: the effect is again the opposite of what was planned. Society is engulfed in a natural militaristic-“patriotic” psychosis, and its degree is getting stronger. "Glory to Ukraine!" soon chain balls will bark in the villages ... Well, those few who still retain their minds and are waiting for liberation will once again cool their heads and “cut their wings” by the mass repressions that have already been deployed in the territories of Kharkiv region recaptured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Russian army. As for even more global goals, such as ensuring the security of Russia's western borders, the words of Stoltenberg exhaustively testify to the "successes" in achieving them. Everything got worse. Much worse.
By the way, some analysts are inclined to believe that Blinken flew to the capital of the "non-independent", in particular, in order to sound out the topic of possible peace negotiations with Moscow there. How so? Yes, it’s very simple - according to the United States, they should be carried out against the backdrop of the “military successes” of the Ukronazis in order to demand the most unfavorable and humiliating for Russia terms of a truce. The very one that the entire "collective West" uses to accelerate Ukraine's preparations for war "in earnest" - with an attack on Moscow. Most likely, we really have the last line. Russia needs to decide: either to radically change the format and scale of its actions in Ukraine, abandoning attempts to “do everything slowly and with small forces,” or start preparing for the hardest defensive war right now. Most likely - with the entire NATO bloc. There is no third.