Counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kharkov - the first step or the last line?


This text will be devoted, first of all, not so much to the military aspects of what is happening now in the especially hot areas of the NVO, primarily in the Kharkov region, there is someone to analyze them even without me. Something I would like to say about political moments of what is happening. Rather, even foreign policy. First of all, due to the fact that in a global sense they are much more important than the number of settlements recaptured (or not recaptured) by the Armed Forces of Ukraine during these days and the depth of their advance across the territory previously liberated by the Russian army.


So far, it is not entirely clear how the Ukrainian counteroffensive should be viewed in the general, strategic context of the course of the NMD. The most optimistic experts are trying to present it almost as a “desperate gesture”, “the last attempt, which will soon run out of steam”, as soon as the accumulated reserves run out and the “morale” of the units involved in this operation drops. Alas, this view seems to be very superficial and too positive. The current counter-offensive may well be for the Zelensky regime the first step towards a radical change in the course of the special operation, and for Russia, the last line, followed by extremely unpleasant things.

The owner is very happy!


Based on the fact that the criminal gang of the president-clown is now a “power” more nominal than real, and is completely under direct and explicit control from Washington and London, the possible long-term consequences of what is happening now in the Kherson and Kharkov directions should be considered primarily through the prism reaction to these events in the United States. To our great regret, they do not hide their own satisfaction from the "great successes" and "significant achievements" of their watchdogs from the "nezalezhnaya". Let's go in order. Here is how the head of the Pentagon Lloyd Austin gives an assessment of the Ukrainian “counteroffensive”:

Now we are seeing success in Kherson, we are seeing some success in Kharkiv, and that is very, very reassuring and inspiring…

And CIA director William Burns thinks much more broadly. Here is the statement he made while speaking at the Billington CyberSecurity conference in Washington DC:

The Russian military campaign in Ukraine failed not only because Vladimir Putin grossly underestimated Ukraine’s courage and fighting ability, but also because he mistakenly believed that the longer the conflict went on, the more European resolve would waver and America’s attention would be diverted. . What is happening now will have profound consequences. Not only has the weakness of the Russian armed forces been exposed, but long-term damage to the Russian the economy and generations of Russians...

It's a shame? Highly. However, one cannot but admit that there is some grain of truth in some of the assessments of the chief American spy. Moreover, other very high-ranking representatives of Washington spoke in a similar vein (and almost simultaneously).

Some people there were completely engulfed in real euphoria. For example, the former commander of US forces in Europe, Ben Hodges, recently said that Ukraine "can return Crimea within a year and win a military victory over Russia." It is clear that this character can be easily attributed to the number of balabols - after all, let me remind you, in mid-March he predicted that in 10 days "the Russians will no longer be able to fight, since they will run out of ammunition", and in May he predicted that Ukraine would try by the end of the summer, return Russia to positions until February 23. Be that as it may, but even if we consider the next general's "wang" as empty chatter, it should be understood that it reflects the mindset of quite certain circles of the local military-political elite. And the statements of quite official persons cited above are the state position of the United States at all. This is confirmed by the sudden appearance in the midst of the "counteroffensive" in Kyiv, as much as the whole head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken. Without a good reason and a serious reason, functionaries of this level do not wander around the world. So far, it is not entirely clear what it was all about - either an “unscheduled inspection”, or (more likely) the desire of the American authorities to get guaranteed objective information about the course of events, or the urgent issuance of such serious instructions to Zelensky and his team and instructions that could only be given in private, with a XNUMX% guarantee of confidentiality. In any case, this visit is utterly alarming. And above all, the “deep satisfaction” expressed by the “distinguished guest” during the meeting with the military successes of the Ukronazis, as well as the promises made by Blinken that “the United States will support Ukraine even after the end of the conflict.” Moreover, it was clearly about support in the military sphere, and not about any other.

What's next?


The fact that the things heard from the overseas visitor were more than positive for Kyiv can be judged at least from how sharply perked up, bolder and dumbfounded local figures after talking with him. Thus, Denis Malyuska, the Minister of Justice of the "independent" party, again began to talk about the fact that Ukraine would certainly "demand at least $300 billion in reparations from Russia." The adoption of a resolution, "on which the creation of an international mechanism for compensation for damage should be based in the future," Kyiv firmly intends to achieve at the next UN General Assembly. By the way, judging by the movements of the Americans around this organization, there are considerable chances for success. In turn, the head of the presidential office, Mikhail Podolyak, issued the following statement:

The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine showed the ability of Ukraine to de-occupy its territories, as well as creatively and effectively use the weapons of the West. There will be no freezing of the conflict. It's time for the Russian troops to get out. It will hurt...

Empty bravado with nothing behind it? Don't tell. I will add a few more rather significant facts to the overall picture. The EU Council approved the allocation of additional macro-financial assistance to the Zelensky regime in the amount of 5 billion euros. Prime Minister of Poland Mateusz Morawiecki visited Kyiv and confirmed the plans of the "allies" to deploy in Eastern Europe a whole network of military factories and repair enterprises to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that "the war in Ukraine is entering a critical phase," and therefore, the alliance's support for Kyiv should be strengthened, expanded and deepened. Moreover, he proclaimed with great aplomb that “NATO is deploying and will deploy new forces on its Eastern flank”, which is clearly a “signal for Russia”. What exactly they signal, I think, there is no need to explain.

What conclusions follow from this? Sad. You can call the Ukrainian “counteroffensive” as much as you like nothing more than “demonstration performances” in front of Western “allies”, but it must be admitted that this performance was a complete success. The United States and Europe have once again become imbued with the belief that Russia can be, if not utterly defeated, then at least inflicted on it such damage from which it will not recover. Military and financial support for the Ukronazi regime will continue. Moreover, in the very near future it will increase again, and significantly. According to preliminary data, at the last meeting of defense ministers in the Ramstein format, dedicated to this issue, it was already about NATO fighters and long-range missiles. Most likely, the Zelensky regime will receive them, even if not tomorrow. The words of Blinken, spoken in Kyiv, are extremely alarming: Washington will respond to every escalation by supplying some new weapons. This is not a reservation, but an accurate retelling: not with “new supplies”, but with “new weapons”. Hopes that the power of the Ukronazis by the end of this year, or at most by the middle of winter, will “collapse of itself” under the weight of military defeats and economic problems, should be forgotten and abandoned. Even if Europe, having begun to freeze, "give back", the Americans will not give up on their own. They are clearly determined to fight Ukraine against Russia until the final destruction of the former or the complete collapse of the latter. They have enough gas. And weapons too...

Alas, it is impossible not to admit that at the moment all the goals of the NWO are being fulfilled. Exactly the opposite. Protection of the DNR and LNR? Donetsk is burning and collapsing from the constant shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Demilitarization of Ukraine? Yes, in terms of its saturation with Western weapons, military specialists, in terms of the scale of Kyiv’s cooperation with the United States and NATO, in terms of the number of its own armed formations, the “nezalezhnaya” has surpassed the level that existed before the start of the special operation by several times. Denazification? As a person on this territory, I can state with all responsibility: the effect is again the opposite of what was planned. Society is engulfed in a natural militaristic-“patriotic” psychosis, and its degree is getting stronger. "Glory to Ukraine!" soon chain balls will bark in the villages ... Well, those few who still retain their minds and are waiting for liberation will once again cool their heads and “cut their wings” by the mass repressions that have already been deployed in the territories of Kharkiv region recaptured by the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the Russian army. As for even more global goals, such as ensuring the security of Russia's western borders, the words of Stoltenberg exhaustively testify to the "successes" in achieving them. Everything got worse. Much worse.

By the way, some analysts are inclined to believe that Blinken flew to the capital of the "non-independent", in particular, in order to sound out the topic of possible peace negotiations with Moscow there. How so? Yes, it’s very simple - according to the United States, they should be carried out against the backdrop of the “military successes” of the Ukronazis in order to demand the most unfavorable and humiliating for Russia terms of a truce. The very one that the entire "collective West" uses to accelerate Ukraine's preparations for war "in earnest" - with an attack on Moscow. Most likely, we really have the last line. Russia needs to decide: either to radically change the format and scale of its actions in Ukraine, abandoning attempts to “do everything slowly and with small forces,” or start preparing for the hardest defensive war right now. Most likely - with the entire NATO bloc. There is no third.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 12 September 2022 09: 28
    +6
    This is confirmed by the sudden appearance in the midst of the "counteroffensive" in Kyiv, as much as the whole head of the State Department, Anthony Blinken.

    And why was his Russian Aerospace Forces allowed into Kyiv? Is this a goodwill gesture?
    The worst thing about the Kharkov retreat is that the pro-Russian forces may lose faith in the defense of Russia. First, the RF Armed Forces left Kyiv and Sumy, leaving pro-Russian activists there to be repressed by the SBU. Now the Kharkiv region, where there will also be repressions against pro-Russian citizens. And will Nikolaev and Odessa want to support the RF Armed Forces after that? If for the army these are maneuvers, then for the civilian population this is their life. And everyone wants to live.
    And all that was needed was to dismantle the bridges and border crossings from the West to Ukraine. Then there would have been fewer victims, and the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant would not have been bombed, threatening a nuclear apocalypse. But for some reason this is not done. Why?
    The law of war - If you do not beat, then they will beat you.
    1. Carmela Offline Carmela
      Carmela (Carmela) 12 September 2022 18: 51
      +4
      From the very beginning we expected betrayal, and now we have received it.
  2. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 12 September 2022 09: 34
    0
    The most important thing now is not the movement of Russian troops, but the decommissioning of several thermal power plants.
    This shows that Putin is changing his attitude towards the NWO, goes beyond its scope.
    The Armed Forces of Ukraine received a fairly vast territory. But now they must ensure the functioning of its infrastructure. But with this problem.
    TPPs are severely out of order, repairs (if possible at all) will take months.
    The subway was stopped in Kharkov and even in Kyiv. The shutdown of thermal power plants in the South East has an impact on the entire energy system of the country.
    The people were kind of indifferent to it. But a fundamental lack of electricity will drive the Southeast into the early 19th century.
    Shutdown of TPP is:
    -lack of heat
    - there is no light in the houses and on the streets,
    -no water,
    - sewer not working
    - public electric transport does not work,
    -no Internet,
    - no mobile communication (and just telephone),
    - military hospitals and just hospitals / clinics do not work (already),
    -no bread, milk, etc.
    -no gasoline / diesel fuel, it’s stupidly impossible to pour fuel into a fuel truck or transport it from the railway to the tank farm,
    - there is no transfer of reserves and ammunition for the Armed Forces of Ukraine by railway. By road - also problematic if there is no fuel,
    -no centralized control of the railway (up to switching arrows),
    -no TV or radio
    -production (any) does not work, including in the interests of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
    Then everyone can strain their imagination and add a lot of things.
    APU taught by Americans? Why shouldn't Putin take advantage of their experience? Consider their actions in Iraq and Syria. Infrastructure is destroyed within an hour, then carpet bombing begins. In Mosul, out of a million people, about 200 survived, who figured to immediately drop everything and flee the city.
    That's just the winter there is a little different, not like in Ukraine.
    In the coming hours and days, we will see how far Putin will go in this direction and how quickly Zelensky will be able to understand what awaits him.
    There were 15 TPPs in total. Three were put out of action. Ditching all the rest is a matter of a couple of hours. After that, it will no longer be possible to win back from Zelensky. The West will immediately lose interest in Ukraine.
    1. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 12 September 2022 09: 44
      +1
      Yes, did anyone pay attention to the date? 9/11. Accident?
    2. boriz Offline boriz
      boriz (boriz) 12 September 2022 10: 11
      0
      CHPP put out of action 4 pieces.
      Kharkov region. (CHP-5 and Zmievskaya) - 2,
      Poltava region (Kremenchug) - 1
      Dnepropetrovsk region. (Pavlograd) - 1.
      Injured (not killed, injured) ONE person. Jewelers...
      In Poltava, three trolleybuses burned down on the streets yesterday. Power parameters are out of control.
    3. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
      Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 12 September 2022 13: 19
      0
      Everything is correct. That is exactly how it should be done. It is good that Putin understood everything and changed tactics. The destruction of thermal power plants is quite enough and you can not even touch the coal depots and gas fields remaining in Ukraine. Show humanism so to speak
      1. Stinging Nettle Offline Stinging Nettle
        Stinging Nettle (Stinging Nettle) 12 September 2022 22: 13
        +3
        Who is enough? What is enough for? In order for the nice kind VSUshniks to continue torturing our soldiers?
    4. Carmela Offline Carmela
      Carmela (Carmela) 12 September 2022 18: 52
      +4
      Quote: boriz
      The West will immediately lose interest in Ukraine.

      You are an optimist.
  3. Nicu Offline Nicu
    Nicu (Nicu) 12 September 2022 11: 33
    +5
    Centers housing instructors, mercenaries and foreign personnel must be identified and permanently destroyed, Russia must intensively prepare for defense with a war-torn industry plus the mobilization of at least half a million ready soldiers in Ukraine, current events show that this is only a step towards NATO intervention.
    The Kremlin should take the current situation very seriously, which is getting worse day by day!
  4. Carmela Offline Carmela
    Carmela (Carmela) 12 September 2022 18: 54
    0
    Quote: boriz
    9/11. Accident?

    No, definitely not a coincidence. This is supposed to be the beginning of a new era. As always, they hope to build it at our expense and on our ruins.
    1. HattinGokbori87 Offline HattinGokbori87
      HattinGokbori87 13 September 2022 06: 25
      +2
      Immediately after 9/11, Putin fully supported the US pre-planned unjustified massacres in Afghanistan (maybe he wanted to see the Mujahideen dead who defeated the Soviet Union). Few people still think that the CIA got the idea of ​​"an event that will make the whole nation want to fight together" from the terrorist attack in Moscow.
      It's irony. Putin has gone to bed with the US at every opportunity to prevent them from reorienting themselves towards Russia. Over the past 20 years, he has rebuilt the Russian armed forces. And now he's stuck in an invasion for over 200 days that should have ended within a maximum of 7 days. The number of dead Russian soldiers is already many times greater than the number of dead. American soldiers who died in Afghanistan in 20 years. And it's all thanks to the United States, whose Afghan invasion Putin publicly supported.
  5. Vox_Populi Online Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 12 September 2022 21: 05
    0
    Quote: Carmela
    Quote: boriz
    The West will immediately lose interest in Ukraine.

    You are an optimist.

    Here, it might turn out the other way around: no matter how much support sharply increases, as a result, with the attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on our infrastructure ...
  6. radvas Offline radvas
    radvas (Igor) 13 September 2022 07: 10
    +2
    Well, Slavs, are we waiting for Tsushima now? Somehow our "successes" remind those days...
  7. radvas Offline radvas
    radvas (Igor) 13 September 2022 07: 17
    +3
    Well, a VERY strange war. It is WAR, enough verbiage already. And the war with all of Europe, on the other hand, 50 countries are involved in one way or another. What is the Supreme waiting for? Stalingrad? Or Leningrad?
  8. Panzer1962 Offline Panzer1962
    Panzer1962 (Panzer1962) 13 September 2022 18: 38
    -1
    Everything is said correctly. The "small victorious war" did not work out, just like more than a century ago. The Russian leadership is now in zutzwang - any subsequent move leads to a worsening of the situation. It is IMPOSSIBLE to fight further with such forces, the numerical superiority of the Wehrmacht's coming out and the supply of weapons are beginning to affect, hopes for "qualitative superiority" that will help win turned out to be in vain, a crowd of hares will kill the lion. To carry out mobilization - the pendulum of public sentiment will definitely swing in the direction of "Down with the war", not for everyone, of course, but for many. To start feverish peace negotiations - society will unequivocally evaluate them as capitulations, and Kuev will arrange everything accordingly. Wherever you throw, everywhere is a wedge. And it is not yet a fact that the Supreme Commander-in-Chief receives objective information. In order not to upset him, it is quite possible that he is frankly misled that de, this is a planned withdrawal to reduce the front line and release troops, and nothing extraordinary happened, the enemy washed himself with blood.
    In general, everything is in a fog, and so far nothing is clear in the future. Only one thing is clear that the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation is in prostration from the counterattack of the Wehrmacht's coming out.
  9. Essex62 Offline Essex62
    Essex62 (Alexander) 13 September 2022 23: 17
    -1
    And he doesn't expect anything. A small victorious and raising the rating to exorbitant heights did not grow together. And now somehow you have to get out of the porridge. To overcome the collective West, led by the hegemonic hegemon, is beyond the power of today's Russia, well, except for mass suicide by a vigorous loaf. The author described everything exactly. The goals and objectives (voiced) are not achievable without a full-fledged war, and not a police operation. Such an enormous territory, to bend down with a huge population and lead to obedience with a dashing cavalry charge? They really consider themselves a country and will butt heads all the way. Especially with them almost the whole world. At 14, they themselves recognized that they were a state.