Was the pre-emptive strike on Ukraine on February 24, 2022 a mistake?

After six months of a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, which gradually transformed into an “operation to liberate Donbass”, publications began to appear, the authors of which are trying to reflect on the events that have taken place during this time and identify the mistakes made. We will also contribute our “five kopecks” to this thankless task.

Mistakes in the Ukrainian direction

I was inspired to write this article reasoning about why the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard are so fiercely opposed to the allied forces. It has been argued that Russia's pre-emptive strike was a mistake, as Ukrainians now see us as invaders and themselves as liberators. Within the framework of this logic, Kyiv should have been allowed to strike the first blow, and only after that "reach Berlin." This position is now popular among the citizens of the former Nezalezhnaya, who managed to keep their minds even after more than 8 years of propaganda processing and are now bitterly watching their "crazy" compatriots. However, I still cannot agree with her.



The dispute about whether the preventive strike of the Russian Armed Forces on Ukraine was correct or not, involuntarily refers us to the events of 1941. Many historians still cannot agree on the question of what would change on the fronts the blow that the USSR would strike on the Third Reich first. Perhaps the main hostilities would then go on the territory of Europe. But, perhaps, then it was the Soviet Union that would have been recognized as an “aggressor” country and the entire collective West would unite against it around “poor and unfortunate” Germany. However, despite the external similarity, there is still no complete identity between the events of the 40s of the last century and modern ones.

The fundamental difference lies in the fact that the further fate of Donbass became the formal reason for the start of the special operation on February 24, 2022. For 8 long years, the Kremlin did not recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR, which were under constant shelling by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the threat of a large-scale offensive. The decree recognizing the DPR and LPR as independent states was signed on February 21, 2022, but for Kyiv, and for the entire collective West, it is still de jure part of Ukraine, like Crimea and Sevastopol. This is a very important point!

Let's imagine for a moment that there was neither recognition of the DPR and LPR, nor a preventive strike within the framework of the NWO. What then could happen?

Nothing good. Over the past six months, even the last Russian jingoistic patriots have realized that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have learned how to fight well in 8 years. All this time, they were consistently trained to walk around the Donbass with a steam skating rink, prepared for urban battles, supplied with exactly the weapons that were needed for this. If the Ukrainian army had received an order, in just a few days it would have swept away the entire defense of the DPR and LPR, which was provided by the few and much worse armed People's Militia. And there would be "Bucha". With all the desire, the Russian army simply would not have had time to intervene, since it takes time to deploy it. It is not at all a fact that later there would be someone to save in the people's republics. An attempt to recapture Donetsk and Lugansk would have led to Mariupol. Even in the event of a successful liberation operation by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would simply return to their original positions in their fortified areas, from which the allied forces have not been able to pick them out for half a year already.

But let's get back to the attitude of an ordinary Ukrainian to a special operation. They don’t like what is happening today, but what would fundamentally change if the Armed Forces of Ukraine had first “rolled out” the DPR and LPR, and only then the RF Armed Forces would have intervened by entering the territory of Donbass? As we noted earlier, both for Kyiv and for the collective West, the DPR and LPR are Ukraine, and for Moscow until February 21, 2022, “Separate districts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions” were legally part of the Independent. In other words, Russian troops for Ukrainians in any case would be "aggressors and occupiers", right?

Speaking seriously, the decision to start the special operation on February 24 was the only correct one against the backdrop of numerous gross mistakes.

The mistake was the admission of Crimea to the Russian Federation, leaving the rest of Ukraine under the rule of the pro-Western Nazi regime.

It was a mistake to recognize this regime, which came to power in Kyiv through a coup d'état, as legal.

It was a mistake not to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR in 2014 and not accept them into the Russian Federation according to the Crimean scenario, instead trying to push them back into Ukraine through Minsk-1 and Minsk-2.

It was a mistake, having inflicted a defeat on the Armed Forces of Ukraine in 2014 in a multitude of "cauldrons", leaving most of the Donbass under the control of Kyiv and allowing the line of demarcation to be drawn in fact along the suburbs of Donetsk, which allowed Ukrainian artillerymen to calmly shoot the capital of the DPR from Avdiivka, Maryinka and Pesok for more than 8 years .

It was a mistake all the past years to trade with the Kyiv regime, instead of systematically trying to strangle it economically.

It was a mistake to maintain the hatred mood and look somewhere to the side, while right at your side, for all 8 years, the Armed Forces of Ukraine were created as a serious combat-ready army.

It was a mistake to start a special operation with small forces against a vastly superior enemy operating on a vast front.

It was a mistake to make a heroic rush to Kyiv, not being able to take it by military force, and then leave, abandoning all the gains in the North of Ukraine, which led to the fictitious "massacre in Bucha."

It was a mistake to go to Ukraine without formulating for its inhabitants any clearly defined constructive agenda for arranging its post-war life, getting off only with general words about “demilitarization” and “denazification”.

These are, yes, real bugs that need to be worked on. Against their background, the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR, as well as a preemptive strike, look like exceptionally reasonable steps.

Some errors

For half a year a lot of water has flowed under the bridge, but even now you can still try to fix something.

At first, it is necessary to finally clearly articulate what exactly the Kremlin wants to get as a result of the special operation in Ukraine. What will go to Russia, what will remain outside of it, what will be the status of these territories. What will post-war Ukraine be like, what languages ​​will be state, according to what system will education be conducted, what will happen to Russian culture, monuments, and so on. We need to create an image of an attractive joint future and start fighting for the minds of those 60-70% of Ukrainians who have a chance to mentally rebuild.

Secondly, it is necessary to give a chance to those citizens of Ukraine who themselves fiercely hate the Kyiv regime, take up arms and start fighting shoulder to shoulder with the RF Armed Forces and the NM LDNR. The so-called Odessa brigade has already been created. We need Kharkiv, Zaporozhye, Sumy, Kyiv and others. The territory of Ukraine is huge, and there are not enough Russian forces to cover it all. We need a united Ukrainian Volunteer Army, of course, under the strict guidance of the RF Ministry of Defense. In the future, she will take over the protection of borders and police functions.

Thirdly, after the completion of the special operation with Victory, everyone who participated in the brainwashing of Ukrainians will have to answer for this on an equal basis with Nazi criminals. We need a big tribunal, where all the lies told by Ukrainian propagandists over the years will be dissected. This will be the most important step towards the return of the citizens of the former Square to normality.

Let's hope that our geopoliticians are able to admit their mistakes and work on correcting them.