Is it possible to ensure the security of Russia without the complete liberation of Ukraine


The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in several directions at once, which began a week ago, involuntarily compels us to ask again the question, what are the real goals and objectives of the special military operation conducted by the Russian Ministry of Defense in Ukraine? What exactly does the Russian military want to achieve?political guidance on the results of SVO?


The reason to speculate on this topic was given by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu, who stated a few days earlier verbatim the following:

We will continue the liberation of Donbass and the creation of conditions that guarantee the security of the Russian Federation.

If everything is clear with the first part, it is not entirely clear what is meant by the creation of conditions that guarantee our security from neighboring Nazi Ukraine, which has a million-strong army. I would very much like to hear from President Putin personally a promise that the Zelensky regime will be recognized as terrorist, demolished and brought to the most severe criminal liability, and the entire territory of the former Square will be liberated from Nazi rule and annexed to Russia in one form or another. Alas, no one can promise us anything like that.

Vladimir Putin outlined the liberation of the territory of the DPR and LPR as the main goal of the special operation, but something must happen in the rest of Ukraine that will remove the military threat to Russia. This is called denazification and demilitarization, but what exactly is the meaning of these terms is still not completely clear. It is absolutely not clear how these goals can be achieved while the Russophobic pro-Western Nazi regime is in power in Kyiv, and Nezalezhnaya has a common border with NATO countries, from where it freely receives weapons, ammunition, fuel, fuel and lubricants and everything else necessary for the war against Russia. Despite these quite obvious facts, the “red thread” running through the entire special operation is the readiness of the Kremlin to complete it at the negotiating table. Very broad unilateral "goodwill gestures" have already been made - the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the already occupied positions in the North of Ukraine, the conclusion of a "grain deal" to open the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.

An analysis of what is happening allows us to characterize the strategy of the Russian military-political leadership as follows: bit by bit biting off Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table and sign some kind of peace agreement on Moscow’s terms. In this case, the pressure lever is the loss of more and more new territories by the Independent. The logic in this can be seen as follows: the later the Zelensky regime begins to negotiate, the less land it will have in the South-East. With such a strategy, there is no talk of the complete liberation of the whole of Ukraine at all, for this there are simply not enough forces involved in the NWO.

Let's assume that these are not just our fabrications based on numerous statements of the highest state officials of the Russian Federation, but really chosen as a working strategy. For example, the DPR and LPR were liberated by the end of 2022, counter-offensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in all directions were repulsed, referendums were held in the Azov region on joining Russia, and Kyiv was once again invited to sit down at the negotiating table. What are the weaknesses of such a strategy?

At first, a huge problem for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will be a giant front line, passing from the Kharkov region to the Nikolaev region. It is simply impossible to reliably ensure its protection. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the total number of combatants in Ukraine reaches 1 million people and can, if necessary, be increased with the help of Western military instructors. Even now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are able to organize an offensive in several areas at the same time - on Kherson, on Energodar and in the Kharkiv region. Yes, everything is not going the way Zelensky would like, but his “narco-regime” has proven in practice its complete ruthlessness towards compatriots. It will be necessary, again drive on the offensive.

At the same time, one should not forget that the most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard are now concentrated in the Donbass. Sooner or later, they will leave from there, and Kyiv will receive a “strike fist”, consisting of fired veterans with gigantic combat experience, which can create a threat of a powerful offensive in any direction. Obviously, no one will allow the complete destruction of the Ukrainian grouping on the Eastern Front.

Secondly, as we have repeatedly noted, the key to controlling Ukraine lies in its South-East. It is here that all the main deposits of natural resources, industrial enterprises and power generating facilities are located. Through the ports of the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, most of the cargo flows have always gone, from which Kyiv received foreign exchange earnings. It is here that the infrastructure providing water supply to the Donbass, Crimea, Kharkiv and Nikolaev regions is located. If all this is left in the hands of Zelensky's "narco-regime", he can continue to exist and pose a threat to Russia, as well as its new territories, which are guaranteed to remain without fresh water. If you take this under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM LDNR, Moscow will already be able to dictate its terms to Kyiv.

Thirdly, the need to constantly be able to stop the large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along such a long front line will reliably tie up the most combat-ready units of our Ground Forces in Ukraine. In other words, if it happens in another direction, the RF Armed Forces will simply have nothing to fight there. Who will then punch through the Suwalki corridor or hold back Islamist militants somewhere in Central Asia? And if Japan does something, or, God forbid, we quarrel with China?

What conclusions can we draw?

Even if the bet is really made on forcing Kyiv to negotiate, they can only be entered into in a configuration that is beneficial for Russia: when the entire South-East from Kharkov to Odessa is under the control of the RF Armed Forces, and the front line is sharply reduced. The actual new border between Russia and Ukraine should run along the line Podolsk - Pervomaisk - Kirovograd - Kremenchug on the Right Bank and Kremenchug - Poltava - Kharkov (Sumy?) on the Left Bank. Only after that you can try to negotiate something.

In the personal opinion of the author of the lines, even such a favorable configuration will not give 100% guarantees of Russia's security, as long as Ukraine retains a common border with Poland. Apparently, for it will have to fight in the future. But the loss of Independent Novorossiya would seriously weaken the Kyiv regime's capacity for waging a large-scale war, shorten the front line, and give Russian troops the opportunity to get into the best position for a subsequent offensive in Western Ukraine. Alas, but all this is very long.
28 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 4 September 2022 11: 32
    +7
    It is strange to raise such a question after half a year of the CBO. Cooks and taxi drivers have long understood that the NWO should end at the Polish border. Although, judging by the actions of the Kremlin to shell the nuclear power plant, the Kremlin has other plans.
    1. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
      Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 4 September 2022 20: 29
      0
      Quote: steel maker
      NWO should end at the border of Poland.

      done right! and by the way, VV Putin announced that there should not be any Ukraine hostile to us and we will not allow this, .... although of course the Kremlin will not publicly declare to the whole world that we are going to occupy a neighboring country, no "we are only protecting the Donbass", though for him protection needs to reach Uzhgorod, but as it is, there is initially the reason for this is the protection of the Donbass (and not water for the Crimea) if the Donbass had not been bombed, we would not have come ..... about the speed of the operation, it is carried out at such a speed to save our fighters, and rightly so, it’s better to slowly, but save the lives of our liberator soldiers .... So CTO in Chechnya lasted 10 years (until August 2009) hostilities in Chechnya and the border regions of the North Caucasus, known as the Second Chechen War, the Second Chechen Campaign or Counter-terrorist operations (CTO) on the territory of the North Caucasus region ..... The Caucasian War (1817-1864) is a generalized name for the military operations of the Russian Imperial Army related to the annexation of the North Caucasus to Ross iiskoy empire, and its military confrontation with the North Caucasian imamat....so half a year is not long and who long to go volunteer and only then evaluate......why not liberated the DPR? firstly, there are fortified areas, and secondly, if we free everyone, they will shout "why don't you stop your NVO", so I am writing, do not rush to hit the fortified areas in the forehead, but it is better to hit Lviv through Lutsk
      1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
        vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 5 September 2022 17: 58
        +2
        In the case of Ukraine, the word occupation is not suitable for the Russian Federation, it is more appropriate to use the expression restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia. Before 1917 there was no such country Ukraine, it was created on the territory of Russia.
        1. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
          Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 5 September 2022 19: 34
          +1
          Quote: vlad127490
          In the case of Ukraine, the word occupation is not suitable for the Russian Federation, it is more appropriate to use the expression restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia. Before 1917 there was no such country Ukraine, it was created on the territory of Russia.

          agree
      2. Muscool Offline Muscool
        Muscool (Glory) 6 September 2022 08: 35
        0
        In order to protect the soldiers, it is necessary to surround the zushniki and hammer in boilers (but we don’t have so many people), and for months in a frontal attack one town, which the Ukrainians dug trenches up and down, is called taking care of personnel?
        1. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
          Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 6 September 2022 18: 45
          0
          young man, I am a retired officer .... but I can’t give advice to those in the trenches sitting on the couch, they know better
  2. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
    gorenina91 (Irina) 4 September 2022 12: 05
    +4
    First, a huge problem for the RF Ministry of Defense will be the gigantic front line that runs from the Kharkiv region to the Nikolaev region. It is simply impossible to reliably ensure its protection. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the total number of combatants in Ukraine reaches 1 million people and can, if necessary, be increased with the help of Western military instructors.

    - Personally, I will express a seditious thought:
    - Paradoxical as it may seem, but ... but ... but right now it is quite profitable for the RF Armed Forces to have a very extended stretched front - that's what it is at the moment! - I explain - for the Armed Forces of Ukraine with human resources, everything is fine so far - moreover, these resources are quite motivated (brainwashed) and fight like frantic (few are captured on the fields of hostilities - a few; well, or one or two dozen)! - And it's good that such a mass of frenzied stretched over great distances!
    - If these frantic people gather in a huge mass on a small section of the front and trample just as frantically - as they are now in the Andreevsky direction (Kherson direction) - then it will be quite dangerous !!!
    - And no matter what they say - they say, the West expects (requires) offensives from Zelensky - now the military leadership of Ukraine itself considers this quite rational !!! - And today the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has adopted a fairly optimal tactic - the tactic of throwing large forces into battle in the Kherson direction, where we (the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) have quite a few military resources!
    - I have already written in other topics and I will repeat again:
    - The fact that shock and experimental formations of the RF Armed Forces got involved in a head-on assault on the fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass - I personally consider it a big mistake !!! - Our Armed Forces of the Russian Federation could form the most shock units, strengthen them with armored vehicles, increase personnel - and begin the liberation of Nikolaev !!! - This should have been done at the beginning of summer! - And get ahead of all these actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which they are trying to carry out now in the Kherson direction! - Nikolaev is not very well protected by the Armed Forces of Ukraine and is located quite far so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can easily transfer reinforcements there, rather complicated logistics!
    - And if the battles for the liberation of Nikolaev were now going on in the territory of the city of Nikolaev, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have two very serious problems - this is in Nikolaev itself - and this is in the Donbass! - And the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have little strength left for the defense of Kharkov - there the initiative would completely pass to the RF Armed Forces!
    1. cooper Offline cooper
      cooper (Alexander) 5 September 2022 18: 01
      +1
      I agree that the operation in the direction of Nikolaev-Odessa is unreasonably delayed.
  3. Nicholas D Offline Nicholas D
    Nicholas D (Nikolai D) 4 September 2022 12: 10
    +7
    On July 2, the LPR was completely liberated. Since then and until today, not a single large city of the DPR has been liberated. The shelling of Donetsk and Gorlovka continues daily. But no one considers Shoigu's official compliance with his position for failing to fulfill the first goal of the SVO - the liberation of Donbass. Everyone talks about the liberation of the whole of Ukraine. It's easier?
  4. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 4 September 2022 12: 53
    -1
    Answers to the question posed in the article.
    If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.
    And further.
    Russia is too big to be content with Ukraine alone.
    Think of the rest....
  5. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 4 September 2022 13: 44
    -2
    guaranteeing our security from neighboring Nazi Ukraine, which has a million-strong army. ... the Zelensky regime will be recognized as terrorist, demolished and brought to the most severe criminal liability, and the entire territory of the former Square will be freed from Nazi rule

    Of course, I understand that it is necessary to "burn the hearts of people with a verb", but the National Socialist Party is in power there and we officially recognized them ?!

    in power in Kyiv is a Russophobic pro-Western Nazi regime

    It's a little closer to reality...

    Very broad unilateral “gestures of goodwill” have already been made – the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the already occupied positions in the North of Ukraine, the conclusion of a “grain deal” to open the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.

    Or maybe everything is simpler and these are just forced steps?
  6. Nike Offline Nike
    Nike (Nikolai) 4 September 2022 13: 51
    +6
    Quote: gorenina91
    The fact that shock and experimental formations of the RF Armed Forces got involved in a head-on assault on the fortified areas of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass - I personally consider it a big mistake !!! -

    Not a mistake, but a huge stupidity. During the war, the spacecraft tried to bypass and surround the fortified areas (the Germans also did this), cut off supply routes, wait, and then storm (this is not the reasoning of a divan strategist), here posing as a new strategy, leaving supply routes ( did they blow up many bridges?) they mark time losing people and time hitting their foreheads against the wall, this is probably the newest super strategy that smells like a pyrrhic victory
    1. gorenina91 Offline gorenina91
      gorenina91 (Irina) 4 September 2022 17: 26
      +1
      Not a mistake, but a huge stupidity. During the war, the spacecraft tried to bypass and surround the fortified areas (the Germans also did this), cut off supply routes, wait, and then storm (this is not the reasoning of a divan strategist), here posing as a new strategy, leaving supply routes ( did they blow up many bridges?) they mark time losing people and time hitting their foreheads against the wall, this is probably the newest super strategy that smells like a pyrrhic victory

      - You are one of the few here - who realistically and objectively assesses the situation!
      - My plus to you.
  7. Zenn Offline Zenn
    Zenn (Andrei) 4 September 2022 14: 11
    +9
    The tactics of our leadership is that there is no strategy, but acts according to the classics - One step forward, two steps back.
    What strategy is that by annexing Crimea, and, as it were, by annexing Donbass, go to the signing of the Minsk agreements, at least not pushing the Armed Forces of Ukraine beyond the Donbass agglomeration, but ideally to the Don.
    What kind of strategy is that by signing the Minsk agreements, not to enforce them, but actually to allow Ukraine, and France and Germany to wipe their feet on Russia.
    What is the strategy in that having received sanctions in 2014-2015, lie to us that we are withdrawing our wallet for a rainy day from the dollar and the euro, but in fact half of the funds remained there
  8. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 4 September 2022 15: 05
    0
    a gigantic front line running from the Kharkov region to the Nikolaev region

    Here the author is absolutely wrong. And now, and after the incomplete completion of the NMD, according to the author's assumption, the length of the front line will be many times greater - in fact, in a circle from Brest to Kherson.
  9. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 4 September 2022 15: 25
    +1
    Cutting off Ukraine from both seas is the only more or less feasible leverage that could force Ze to enter into real negotiations. First part done
  10. sat2004 Offline sat2004
    sat2004 4 September 2022 16: 04
    +1
    Impossible. And yet, while there is NATO, do not expect security.
  11. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 4 September 2022 16: 19
    +3
    If Ukraine loses access to the sea, as well as a significant part of the eastern territories, then the remaining entity will be economically so weak that it will no longer pose a military threat to Russia even by joining NATO.

    The West, of course, will support this new Ukraine, but this will not be enough for demonstrative well-being, which could *-compete with the standard of living of those territories that will go to Russia.

    Russian Ukrainians will be able to forget Ukraine because they are Russian. They will not have questions about their belonging to Russia. Ukraine will eventually be for the inhabitants of Odessa, Dnepropetrovsk, etc., especially for the younger generations, a foreign country with a foreign language.

    But ethnic Ukrainians who speak Ukrainian would be very difficult, if not impossible, to integrate into the Russian Federation. This people has become a stranger to us, we must admit it. Take the Russians, Russian lands and let the real Ukraine float freely - let it float where it will drift. Ukraine will become the backyard of the EU, impoverished and godforsaken as the Baltics.

    One could sincerely wish this Ukraine success and happiness, if they humanly took their own path. But the way they did it, one can only wish them - go to hell.
  12. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 4 September 2022 18: 23
    +1
    Until Russia creates an inevitable threat of nuclear war on the territory of the owner of this entire gang, there can be no question of completing the NWO.
    Is it really so hard to understand?
    Now in the hands of the States there are several options for escalation that will make us forget about the end of the NWO for a long time.
  13. Ivanushka-555 Offline Ivanushka-555
    Ivanushka-555 (Ivan) 4 September 2022 18: 25
    +6
    Putin is a walking paradox, self-contradictory and always eluding logic! Loudly announce the fight against Nazi Ukraine, but at the same time stubbornly do not touch the accomplice of Ukrainian Nazism and fascism - the Jewish fascist Zelensky!
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 4 September 2022 19: 22
      +1
      Putin is a walking paradox, a self-contradictory and eternally elusive soapy creature

      Try on him the role of heir to obligations to the States, which he, apparently, received from the hands of Yeltsin along with the country, and everything will immediately fall into place
  14. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) 4 September 2022 20: 00
    -3
    I read this article and the comments to it, and I think what happiness I had to see on this resource couch graduates of West Point and the General Staff of Russia - everything is laid out on the shelves. where and how to surround something, destroy it, and flee back from where they started, but in our General Staff all sorts of captains, riders, cooks, and other ensigns, neither ear nor snout in this matter, and that’s why us at the fronts are utterly "not fish, but only meat," and this already reeks of real Serdyukovism, and is already directly called scolding our armed forces. And another question for the couch generalissimo, who created the paramilitary Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, if not Sergei Shoigu, and who again recreated from scratch a new Russian army, which is second in power in the world, and this is still the same Sergei Shoigu under the leadership of our president, so don’t pour streams of bile and dirt on our army, the General Staff knows perfectly well what, how and when to do it.
  15. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 4 September 2022 21: 16
    0
    I remember that they used to say that the guaranteed safety of savings will be provided by Sberbank.
    Now everyone knows that this is not true.

    So now, even the complete (And look at the map, is it soon?) liberation of Ukraine is unlikely to be able to "ensure Russia's security".
    It's like with the famous implementation of the May Decrees (and all sorts of other instructions).
    Everyone knows that they were, that something was allegedly done there, but there is nothing to remember except PR ...
  16. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 4 September 2022 23: 34
    +4
    Initially, Vladimir Putin spoke about the possible deprivation of Ukraine of its statehood.
    There are only two options for deprivation of statehood:
    1. Occupation of the entire territory
    2. Division of Ukraine with NATO - Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and possibly Belarus.
    Negotiations with Ukrainian nationalists in Belarus and Turkey, Peskov’s statement about readiness for negotiations with nationalists, speak of the Russian Federation’s insistent desire to complete the NMD with a separate agreement. The bargaining is about the terms of the agreement - the Russian Federation demands the recognition of Crimea and the DPR-LPR, and the nationalists demand a complete withdrawal of troops from all territories occupied during the NWO, DPR-LPR and Crimea.
    The energy crisis and the problems in the economy caused by it require the end of the war in Ukraine, and this may contribute to a compromise and the conclusion of a peace treaty between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, which will mean Ukraine's entry into the EU, and in fact into NATO, because. The EU is almost 100% NATO members.
    The first option is impossible, the second has no prerequisites - negotiations with NATO.
    The fragmentation of Ukraine through referendums in the occupied territories, the formation of Novorossiy-Little Russia reduces the territory of Ukraine but does not deprive it of statehood and will mean a postponed war.
    The preservation of Ukrainian statehood in any form will mean the defeat of the Russian Federation.
    1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
      vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 5 September 2022 18: 04
      +2
      The power "elite" of the Russian Federation is only interested in a personal pocket and a golden life in a golden billion. The Russian Federation for them is just a source of their wealth, natural resources in the Russian Federation will always be, regardless of the authorities, the main thing is that the "elite" is their mistress.
  17. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 5 September 2022 17: 51
    +2
    "..broad unilateral "gestures of good will" - but this is generally tin, obscure actions of the Russian leadership.
  18. Ulich Offline Ulich
    Ulich (Valery) 8 September 2022 17: 22
    +1
    Any solution other than the destruction of the state of Ukraine is temporary. The project Ukraine makes sense only in the confrontation with Russia. Well, there are other challenges that are not obvious to non-specialists. For example, the Ze regime is already cutting down forests in the Carpathians and Galicia. And without it, Pridnestrovie, Odessa and Nikolaev regions will turn into a desert. Odessa corny drinks water from the Dniester, and its water intake is in the Lviv, Ternopil and Ivano-Frankivsk regions. Well, if about the sacred, then the Crown of the Russian King, which can only be worn in Galich, has not been canceled either ...
  19. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 10 September 2022 16: 50
    0
    A funny article in the light of current events, isn't it?)