Is it possible to ensure the security of Russia without the complete liberation of Ukraine

The counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in several directions at once, which began a week ago, involuntarily compels us to ask again the question, what are the real goals and objectives of the special military operation conducted by the Russian Ministry of Defense in Ukraine? What exactly does the Russian military want to achieve?political guidance on the results of SVO?

The reason to speculate on this topic was given by the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Sergei Shoigu, who stated a few days earlier verbatim the following:




If everything is clear with the first part, it is not entirely clear what is meant by the creation of conditions that guarantee our security from neighboring Nazi Ukraine, which has a million-strong army. I would very much like to hear from President Putin personally a promise that the Zelensky regime will be recognized as terrorist, demolished and brought to the most severe criminal liability, and the entire territory of the former Square will be liberated from Nazi rule and annexed to Russia in one form or another. Alas, no one can promise us anything like that.

Vladimir Putin outlined the liberation of the territory of the DPR and LPR as the main goal of the special operation, but something must happen in the rest of Ukraine that will remove the military threat to Russia. This is called denazification and demilitarization, but what exactly is the meaning of these terms is still not completely clear. It is absolutely not clear how these goals can be achieved while the Russophobic pro-Western Nazi regime is in power in Kyiv, and Nezalezhnaya has a common border with NATO countries, from where it freely receives weapons, ammunition, fuel, fuel and lubricants and everything else necessary for the war against Russia. Despite these quite obvious facts, the “red thread” running through the entire special operation is the readiness of the Kremlin to complete it at the negotiating table. Very broad unilateral "goodwill gestures" have already been made - the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the already occupied positions in the North of Ukraine, the conclusion of a "grain deal" to open the ports of Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny.

An analysis of what is happening allows us to characterize the strategy of the Russian military-political leadership as follows: bit by bit biting off Ukraine, forcing Kyiv to sit down at the negotiating table and sign some kind of peace agreement on Moscow’s terms. In this case, the pressure lever is the loss of more and more new territories by the Independent. The logic in this can be seen as follows: the later the Zelensky regime begins to negotiate, the less land it will have in the South-East. With such a strategy, there is no talk of the complete liberation of the whole of Ukraine at all, for this there are simply not enough forces involved in the NWO.

Let's assume that these are not just our fabrications based on numerous statements of the highest state officials of the Russian Federation, but really chosen as a working strategy. For example, the DPR and LPR were liberated by the end of 2022, counter-offensives of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in all directions were repulsed, referendums were held in the Azov region on joining Russia, and Kyiv was once again invited to sit down at the negotiating table. What are the weaknesses of such a strategy?

At first, a huge problem for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation will be a giant front line, passing from the Kharkov region to the Nikolaev region. It is simply impossible to reliably ensure its protection. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the total number of combatants in Ukraine reaches 1 million people and can, if necessary, be increased with the help of Western military instructors. Even now, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are able to organize an offensive in several areas at the same time - on Kherson, on Energodar and in the Kharkiv region. Yes, everything is not going the way Zelensky would like, but his “narco-regime” has proven in practice its complete ruthlessness towards compatriots. It will be necessary, again drive on the offensive.

At the same time, one should not forget that the most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard are now concentrated in the Donbass. Sooner or later, they will leave from there, and Kyiv will receive a “strike fist”, consisting of fired veterans with gigantic combat experience, which can create a threat of a powerful offensive in any direction. Obviously, no one will allow the complete destruction of the Ukrainian grouping on the Eastern Front.

Secondly, as we have repeatedly noted, the key to controlling Ukraine lies in its South-East. It is here that all the main deposits of natural resources, industrial enterprises and power generating facilities are located. Through the ports of the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, most of the cargo flows have always gone, from which Kyiv received foreign exchange earnings. It is here that the infrastructure providing water supply to the Donbass, Crimea, Kharkiv and Nikolaev regions is located. If all this is left in the hands of Zelensky's "narco-regime", he can continue to exist and pose a threat to Russia, as well as its new territories, which are guaranteed to remain without fresh water. If you take this under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM LDNR, Moscow will already be able to dictate its terms to Kyiv.

Thirdly, the need to constantly be able to stop the large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along such a long front line will reliably tie up the most combat-ready units of our Ground Forces in Ukraine. In other words, if it happens in another direction, the RF Armed Forces will simply have nothing to fight there. Who will then punch through the Suwalki corridor or hold back Islamist militants somewhere in Central Asia? And if Japan does something, or, God forbid, we quarrel with China?

What conclusions can we draw?

Even if the bet is really made on forcing Kyiv to negotiate, they can only be entered into in a configuration that is beneficial for Russia: when the entire South-East from Kharkov to Odessa is under the control of the RF Armed Forces, and the front line is sharply reduced. The actual new border between Russia and Ukraine should run along the line Podolsk - Pervomaisk - Kirovograd - Kremenchug on the Right Bank and Kremenchug - Poltava - Kharkov (Sumy?) on the Left Bank. Only after that you can try to negotiate something.

In the personal opinion of the author of the lines, even such a favorable configuration will not give 100% guarantees of Russia's security, as long as Ukraine retains a common border with Poland. Apparently, for it will have to fight in the future. But the loss of Independent Novorossiya would seriously weaken the Kyiv regime's capacity for waging a large-scale war, shorten the front line, and give Russian troops the opportunity to get into the best position for a subsequent offensive in Western Ukraine. Alas, but all this is very long.