Will the crisis of the Western economy be the beginning of the reindustrialization of Russia

Anti-Russian sanctions are known to work. The other day, The Guardian published a bunch of materials about the situation of the notorious "small shopkeepers" who supposedly hold the whole of democracy. The position is unenviable. Even in the US, but especially in Europe, the service sector is experiencing a clear decline due to lower demand due to falling consumer incomes. Small productions feel a little better: not yet "at death", but simply "in a coma"; they are hit primarily by rising prices for raw materials and energy.

Energy costs are already becoming unbearable even for large fish. Last week, the administration of the Slovak aluminum plant Slovaco announced an imminent halt in production. Already current electricity prices make the work of a very energy-intensive enterprise unprofitable, and there are no signs that the situation will improve - rather, on the contrary. But this is one of the largest - and richest - plants in the industry in Europe.

Even more questionable is the future of the European chemical (in particular, pharmaceutical) industry, which is directly dependent on Russian gas and oil, which are its raw materials, and not just a source of energy (which also requires a lot). In essence, the whole big comedy with "saving gas" is an attempt to save it not for heating in winter, but to maintain the last convulsions of "washing".

At the same time, not everyone succeeds in “saving”. France, which was forced to reduce nuclear electricity generation due to drought (nuclear power plant reactors cannot operate in nominal mode, because there is not enough water for cooling), is increasing gas imports from Germany. In Germany itself, this led to an increase in gas consumption by 13% in July compared to June - that's the whole "thrift". In the south of Europe, again, due to drought and shallowing of the rivers, the hydropower industry has become "despondent", which does not allow reducing the consumption of fossil fuels.

The funny thing is that even in such a situation, close to disaster, the environmental agenda brought to schizophrenia continues to weigh on European industrialists. For example, one of the German polymer plants applied to the local authorities for permission to switch to power supply from diesel generators, which would give a XNUMX% savings in precious natural gas. Officials replied that all examinations and paperwork would take about a year. Another chemical plant, in a neighboring region of Germany, has already received a permit, but it will not enter into force until November.

In general, news Western economies are more and more reminiscent of some kind of apocalyptic signs. Partly, of course, it's a matter of semantics: statements like "fuel prices are already such that it's cheaper to snort cocaine and just run," many British people will have to choose between food and heating, etc., which European and Anglo-Saxon people allow themselves policy. In some aspects, the actual situation may differ greatly from the tendentious interpretation first presented in foreign media and then distorted by domestic translators.

But there is no doubt that the situation is awful, as well as that the dear “partners” put themselves in this situation. The question now is whether our politicians will be able to take advantage of this, because what is a “gateway to hell” for a German can become a “window of opportunity” for a Russian.

Former owner of former factories

In the first weeks of the NMD, enemy propaganda was happy to draw parallels between the current operation and the Finnish campaign of 1939-1940. I will give another analogy, not without malice.

The current situation to a certain extent resembles the period 1929-1933. In these years, the rapid growth of the previous decade in the Western "democracies" gave way to the catastrophic Great Depression. It was caused, however, not by anti-Soviet sanctions, but by other, but also extremely clever actions of the then “helmsmen”: they allowed stock speculators to “plant atomic bombs” under economics and blow them up, bringing down itself and its countries into tartarara.

On the other hand, against the background of the economic catastrophe of the capitalist metropolises, forced industrialization roared in the Soviet Union. With the money from the sale of raw materials, mainly agricultural, the young Country of Soviets literally bought in bulk abroad entire factories, wagonloads of patents, battalions of engineers and companies of scientists, transplanting them onto their own soil. This became possible not just in the background, but thanks to the economic catastrophe of the West. If the Western magnates had not lost their traditional markets and incomes, they might not have agreed to “sell the rope” to these terrible “communist orcs”, who have already promised to pull the magnates up on this very rope.

Due to the ideally chosen moment and imperfect, but quite successfully completed operation, the USSR created an advanced industrial base in the shortest, unprecedented time in history. A decade earlier, during the NEP period, it was not possible to reach such rates of industrial growth: being itself on the rise, the West was not interested in investing in an ideologically hostile and "racially inferior" state. And if the “window of opportunity” had been missed, it would also have become impossible to pump out the potential from the “partners” licking their wounds: they were concerned about restoring their own strength before a new dismantling of imperialist predators.

...What do we have now? "Atomic bombs" under the buttocks of the "partners" are already starting to burst - so far tactical; the real "Reich Chancellor Bomba" promises to die next winter (I would like it to be colder in the west of the continent). The Russian Federation, thanks to anti-Russian sanctions, is raking in big money from the sale of natural raw materials. The moment of truth is near – is the Russian leadership ready?

Deliberalization of Europe

There is some reason to believe that it is, or at least is being prepared. The popular version that the country is run by traitors-and-idiots who deliberately "merge" everything in order to "reconcile" with the "partners", sincerely believing in the possibility of such a "reconciliation" - I consider this version untenable: in fact, if on the couch "everything is clear", then on the throne - even more so. Therefore, the only reason not just to delay the CBO, but also to comply with all the decency prescribed by the late "international law" can only be a conscious game for a fall. Taking small tactical steps in Ukraine, strategically the operation is making big leaps around the world and especially in Europe.

There is an opinion that in winter, when the boils of burgher anger begin to burst and more or less successful “Euromaidans” flare up all over Europe, our officials will start making offers to Western industrialists that will be difficult to refuse. Now, while the puppet regimes are still strong enough, there is nothing to count on some kind of “relocation” - after all, it is assumed (dreamed) that it will again be about buying out and moving entire enterprises along with the most valuable personnel. But when cannonade rumbles in conditional Berlin, and soldiers and rioters fight for every house, then it will be possible to evacuate everything of value relatively calmly from the surroundings without slamming the door loudly.

It is possible - and necessary! - there will be, as they say, "walking with all the money", buying out and pulling out on Russian territory as many assets as there are enough oil and gas rubles. First of all, of course, advanced industries: electronic, machine tool, polymer, pharmaceutical - take everything that is not screwed, and what is tightly screwed - smash on the spot.

The imperative should not even be the replenishment of Russia's industrial potential at the expense of Europe, but the destruction of the latter's economy. This "falling" just needs to be pushed and added a kick for speed, so that it crashes as painfully as possible, with a crunch of bones. The ideal option would be when the European Union, after the economic collapse, finally disintegrates into embittered fragments, gnawing at each other for the remnants of resources (and the rights of perverts, if they don’t give a damn). This "anti-sanitary cordon" would perfectly cover the western flank from the so far inaccessible Anglo-Saxon "partners".

Such a position can be called revanchist - that is exactly what it is. Russia - precisely the country, and not the new elites formed after 1991 (although they too) - after a grandiose geopolitical defeat and a rollback for decades, unexpectedly, unexpectedly got a chance to strangle the millennial enemies with their own hands: you just need to pull the factories out of crooked fingers and shove they have money in them. And I hope with all my might that at least a part of the Russian elite thinks in approximately such categories and understands that there will not be another such chance in the foreseeable future.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 25 August 2022 09: 51
    On the other hand, against the background of the economic catastrophe of the capitalist metropolises, forced industrialization roared in the Soviet Union.

    So it is in the Soviet Union. Remembering the old joke "Then there was another coach"

    And I hope with all my might that at least a part of the Russian elite thinks in approximately such categories and understands that there will not be another such chance in the foreseeable future.

    You can hope. Almost impossible to implement. There was information that Putin will discuss with Siluanov the draft budget, budget policy and

    philosophy of approach to the formation of the budget, budgetary policy for the near, medium and more distant future.

    For me, drive them all out of the "decision centers"

    Based on the results of this meeting, we will see the prospects for reindustrialization
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 25 August 2022 10: 14
    With a sharp increase in the cost of energy, and hence the cost of production, and with the loss of the markets of the three countries, the European economy will lose a lot of money.
    How deplorably this will affect the situation in the EU is hard to say.
    If they are very bad, then it is very good.

    It would be great to fulfill the tasks set by the author - to buy up industrial facilities and install them on their own land. And then some offer to kill government money by paying for the navy, which China will build for us.
    And yes, if possible, it is necessary to destroy the economy of Europe.
    For after the end of the NMD, we will come close to a war with the European part of NATO. They desperately need cheap resources. And it is easiest to take them in Greater Russia (RF, Belarus, the territory of the former Ukraine).
    The United States will pump up Europe with its weapons and send it to fight with us. And he himself will sort out relations with China.
  3. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 25 August 2022 12: 16
    Will the crisis of the Western economy be the beginning of the reindustrialization of Russia

    Given all the "cash" circumstances, no, it won't!
    1. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 25 August 2022 21: 13
      Vox_Populi (Vox Populi). You've ruined everyone's mood. Can't you dream like they dream. It's so simple and warms the soul like a pear. Some of their dreams are reminiscent of a Ukrainian joke:

      Uncle and nephew went to the forest to collect mushrooms. As they came, they dispersed to compete. A couple of minutes later, the nephew shouts to the uncle - uncle, I caught a bear here. Uncle, why do you need him, let him go! Nephew - yes, I would let him go, but I can’t. And more similar. A man got lost in the woods and began to haunt. Then in the hearts - that no one hears me. Hears a voice, I hear you, it became easier for you! The man turns and sees a bear leaning against a tree with his shoulder and picking his teeth with a piece of wood.
  4. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 25 August 2022 13: 00
    Someone's naive views: you need, you can, you need, you can, ... without getting up from the couch. No business plan, no numbers, nothing....

    Similar idealistic hopes were in the 8th year, and in the 12th, 14th,,18-20th ....
    remember? Russia forward, Supejet, iPhone killers, Skolkovo, Nano and a hyped military research center?

    The result - the authorities report the failure of import substitution, that they themselves can’t do anything, we will “gray-import” and re-glue the tags.

    So everything is exactly the opposite .. The West invests in its domestic production, supports a trifle, they wrote here, but in the Russian Federation enterprises go to hell.

    On VO just yesterday, the article "Time to save factories." about the unique last one (of the remaining 4 are ruined and closed) in the Russian Federation, the plant Maybe it's true, maybe not - the commentators doubt it.
    Billions are optimized, the plant is bankrupt, no one takes it and for 10% of the investment, no one answered for the collapse. Like, die - and the last will not be. what kind of reindustrialization

    And in the West, they immediately wrote - a course towards the development of their own economies. Microcircuits, plastic, chemistry, high technologies. A lot of money is being invested. And no one will sell us the old Volvo factory. They were already there until the 24th, but... closed.
    1. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 25 August 2022 21: 17
      You do not understand. Build first, and then create a plan and see if it fits in, or if it has to be broken. Why build for breaking, if money can be stolen, and then write that it has already been broken, it turned out to be unnecessary.
    2. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 26 August 2022 15: 36
      and in the 90s, no one sold us either technology or factories (remember Opel? how they broke us off with him)

      The imperative should not even be the replenishment of Russia's industrial potential at the expense of Europe, but the destruction of the latter's economy. This "falling" just needs to be pushed and added a kick for speed, so that it crashes as painfully as possible, with a crunch of bones.

      the most
  5. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 25 August 2022 13: 34
    The crisis is not caused by classical overproduction, but by political confrontation in the fight against the PRC and the Russian Federation. Economic methods do not give a result, and therefore the confrontation tends to use force.
    At the same time, the main damage is caused by the so-called. The “middle class”, which acts as a social “safety cushion”, shrinks in times of crisis and grows in times of prosperity.
    Large capital not only suffers the least losses, because its capital flows from less profitable to more profitable, but also increases its income due to this, deepening the gap between the richest and everyone else.
  6. NatiKoshka_87 Offline NatiKoshka_87
    NatiKoshka_87 (Ela) 25 August 2022 15: 53
    Dreaming is not harmful of course.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 25 August 2022 17: 56
      Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the staffing of the Russian Armed Forces by 137 servicemen. The relevant document is posted on the legal information portal (c).

      Yours now need to grave another 500-600 thousand. And all of yours will have wet panties.
  7. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 25 August 2022 17: 23
    Re-industrialization is needed.
    But where does the money come from to buy out foreign production facilities and invite Western specialists?
    Is repeating the famine already purely in the Russian Federation?
    And one cannot believe in the doom of the Western economy, and that the leaders of all "G"s - like a non-commissioned officer's widow - will flog themselves!
    1. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 26 August 2022 15: 39
      we'll see in the winter. carve out , how . masochists, what can they take))
      what does the famine have to do with it - glory to the sanctions - the agrarians have begun to stir.
      where is the money Zin-so we will have nowhere to put "this shoe polish" soon. the shop with dollars and euros will close, so what? glue the toilet with papers? there is money, there is raw materials, there is territory, and most importantly, there are bright minds!
      1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
        Michael L. 26 August 2022 17: 38
        And what about the famine?
        This is a question for the moderator, who removed the explanation "moreover" from the comment - moreover, the explanation borrowed from the former Prime Minister of Ukraine N.Ya. Azarov.
        I will not repeat!
  8. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 25 August 2022 21: 31
    There is a saying in Russia -

    You can't build your happiness on someone else's misfortune.

    What if they decide to shoot with all their might. What if they find a hitler who will replace Zelensky, but the USSR, then no!
  9. Zenn Offline Zenn
    Zenn (Andrei) 25 August 2022 21: 32
    our officials will start making offers to Western industrialists that will be hard to refuse.

    Can the author provide at least a few facts in support of such an opinion? So far, all the actions of our elite indicate the opposite. They are probably encrypted in anticipation of the "great relocation" of European industry.
    1. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 26 August 2022 15: 41
      I think yes. GDP does not advertise its multi-move, and therefore all the Manturovs and Siluyanovs use it "in the dark" ... Serdyukov is an example for you
  10. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 26 August 2022 20: 35
    The beginning of reindustrialization in Russia SHOULD have been Putin's rise to power.
    Has passed 20 years.
    Money for industrialization ended up in the West. Russia was in...
    Children, what do you think - who is Putin and his team? Why are you silent, children?
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 27 August 2022 22: 29
      Industrialization is not just buying everything and everyone that produces. This is an investment of huge "long" money in jobs, an increase in the standard of living of the population and an increase in its population, the development of science and education, etc., etc., etc. In essence, fundamental capital investments in the development and future of one's own country. It takes time and the trust of the people. The current government had all this 20 years ago. The government even secured the flow of money for itself.
      And all this, together with the fate of their own country and its people, is bastardly (maybe and vilely) missed ..... la
  11. Pim Offline Pim
    Pim (Pim Siberian) 27 August 2022 19: 44
    Naive Chukchi youths) give them steamboat factories. Tell me, why is America drowning Europe? Maybe because it cannot take its own from China?
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 27 August 2022 22: 33
      You are probably right. Another element of the mosaic has found its place. Another reason for the interest of the States in the war between Russia and Europe, the death of the first in it and the weakening of it by the hands of the second