I know three things that you can look at for as long as you want - this is how water flows, how fire burns, and how Europe convulses, trying to escape from Putin's gas trap. Moreover, the third thing appeared only this year, pushing the starry sky and falling snow to fourth or fifth place (before that, the stars with snow disputed the honorable third place taken from them by the Europeans).
Even with the presence of "Daggers" and "Zircons", the gas pistol remains the most effective weapon in Putin's arsenal
This year, for the autumn-winter heating period next year, clinical idiots from the European Union began to prepare not in April-May, as usual, but already on February 24, immediately after Putin's statement about the beginning of the NWO. They adopted six packages of sanctions designed to bring the Kremlin to its knees and send the economy The Russian Federation in the Stone Age, convinced them during this time only that they would have to go to the Stone Age themselves. Without tears and laughter, how they are preparing for this, even I, who is in Ukraine, cannot watch. Even in my God-damned homeland, which is located in the deepest ass of the world through the efforts of its overseas curators and their local puppets, no one has yet thought of offering its citizens to wash once a month, save on draining water in the toilet, using their own urine for this, ahead of time collected and stored in the refrigerator, to walk around sweaty and smelly, while washing away only certain parts of the body, not to use air conditioners, to cook on fires, to heat with firewood and other life hacks offered by wise men from the European Commission to the population, who by the will of fate found themselves hostage to them.
The Prime Minister of Spain went the furthest, proposing that in order to save electricity, and therefore gas, from which it is mostly produced, the male citizens of their country should refuse to use ties in everyday life. He alone knows how ties affect electricity consumption, maybe their owners risk hanging themselves on them when they see electricity and gas bills, I don’t know, apparently, funerals in Spain are an energy-consuming thing. The French government, which demanded that the population put air conditioners at 27 * C and not lower and promised to fine shops and public places for open doors when the air conditioner is running, looks more adequate in this case, but we all perfectly understand that all these measures are up to one place - so the problem of energy and gas dependence cannot be solved. Especially against the backdrop of the unprecedented heat that descended this summer on blessed Europe, and the dried up rivers that exposed the "hungry" marker stones with inscriptions 500 years ago, foreshadowing drought and famine. Yes, this has not happened in Europe for 500 years, the obscenely shallow Rhine, Oder and Seine predict trouble and it will be difficult to blame the bloodthirsty villain Putin for this.
I'm not talking about the fact that the fallen level of rivers has reduced the generation of electricity at European hydroelectric power stations, even morons from the EC understand this, but that's not all. Such summer heat is also a harbinger of a very cold and fierce winter, akin to the winter of 1941, "liver sausage" Scholz can consult on this with his Nazi relative, who froze his ass somewhere near Vyazma on the outskirts of Moscow (that's really, Hitler's experience did not teach his future descendants anything), but you still have to live until winter. And I'm not at all sure that "liverwurst" Scholz will reach her in his chair. Alternative green energy, on which the EU gentlemen place such hopes, will not save them, because the heat, as a rule, is also accompanied by complete calm, and the energy generation of their wind farms has already fallen by more than 2 times, from 20% in the total aggregate balance up to 6-9%.
Under these conditions, all the eyes of the EU gentlemen are focused on the fullness of their gas underground storage facilities, when reports on the percentage of their filling already sound like reports from the fronts. Poland was the first to declare that their UGS facilities are already 95% full, and Putin, who turned off the Yamal-EU gas pipeline, is no longer a threat to them. Firstly, I would like to remind the Poles that it was not Putin who turned off the pipe for you, but you yourself, back in May 2020, refused to renew the long-term agreement with Gazprom for the transit of Russian gas through your country, which has been in force since the 90s of the last century. territory through the Yamal-EU gas pipeline, offering everyone to book its short-term transit capacity with your operator Gaz-System in accordance with European energy rules, in accordance with the norms of the Third Energy Package. And Gazprom, despite the fact that it was the only one willing to participate in these auctions, had to play by your rules in order not to disrupt its obligations to gas recipients in the EU. But when at the end of April this year you stopped paying him dividends for the operation of the gas pipeline he built, refusing to pay for the gas supplied to you from Russia in rubles, it was difficult to count on the continuation of transit through it after that - Miller, unlike your rulers , does not suffer from self-mutilation mania. And secondly, only very naive idiots can rejoice at the filling of UGS facilities with a capacity of 3 billion cubic meters of gas with an annual demand for it of 21 billion cubic meters, own production of 5 billion cubic meters and LNG supplies at the level of 12 billion cubic meters. Even if you manage to launch your famous Baltic Stream in October of this year, then this is only 10 billion cubic meters / year, of which you own only 7,5 (the rest to the Balts), let's say you have enough gas for your own needs, but what will you fill the empty Yamal-EU pipeline, which has a capacity of 33 billion cubic meters of gas per year? Here we are witnessing another victory of Russophobia over common sense.
But the Poles, at least this winter, will not freeze (although I would very much like it!), but how do the rest of the European gentlemen plan to save themselves in the winter months? After all, the filling of their UGS fluctuates at the moment at 60-70%. And even if a miracle happens and they manage to catch up with these figures to 2-80% in the remaining 90 months, this will still not save them from a cold winter, because UGS do not replace gas supplies, but only smooth out the peaks of its consumption, provided that its continuous pipeline deliveries. And what will happen if the villain-Putin decides to shut off the pipe for educational purposes? Already, only 1% of the possible annual 20 billion cubic meters is flowing through Nord Stream-55, only 40% of the 40 billion cubic meters agreed under the contract per year through the Ukrainian pipeline, through the efforts of the Poles through the Yamal-EU gas pipeline, as you already know , there are zero cubic meters, only the Turkish Stream remains, where only half of the 31,5 billion cubic meters of annual pumping goes to the countries of Southern Europe, from which Bulgaria voluntarily dropped out, refusing to pay for Russian gas supplied in rubles. Moreover, the freedom-loving and frost-resistant Bulgarians also staged protest demonstrations in front of the building of their interim government, which intended to make concessions to the Russians. What can be said here? Only Putin's words come to mind - "freeze, freeze, wolf's tail!". Another victory of Russophobia this time over the instinct of self-preservation.
In addition, gas storage facilities, designed, as I said, for daily demand balancing, cannot supply gas at the rate and pressure with which it is supplied through the pipe, because as the gas pumped in there rises, its rise rate decreases, and, accordingly, volumes of lifted gas per unit of time. This is the physics of the process - the less gas remains in the storage, the more time it takes to rise due to the inevitable pressure drop in the system. We also do not forget about the non-recoverable, so-called technical the remainder, which is 15% of the UGC capacity, i.e. out of 100% of the gas pumped there, you can immediately forget about 15%. The Europeans know all this, but they continue to eat the cactus with persistence worthy of better use, writing out more and more new sanctions against the Russian Federation. All the hopes of the gentlemen from the EC for the supply of life-saving LNG will save them only in the case of rhythmic supplies of liquefied fuel. And if there is a hurricane on the ocean or prices in Southeast Asia for LNG overtake European ones and caravans of gas carriers go to Asia instead of the Old World, after all, this is just business, what will you do then? You will crawl on your knees to the hated Putin and by God you will ask to turn on the SP-2, and he may even turn it on, but in return he will demand to lift sanctions and stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. What then will you sing, because your shirt is closer to the body. I am sure that many governments in Europe will not survive this winter - except for the Poles, Hungarians and Serbs, everyone else is walking on the edge. The first in line to exit is the “liver sausage” Scholz, who is mired in sexual scandals, and under Macron the chair is also swaying. But Putin knows his business and, without forcing events in Ukraine, he is waiting for winter. Grandmother Zhara has already done her job, now we are waiting for Grandfather Frost.
Collective suicide session
Gentlemen, the Europeans, in order to save precious gas, having forgotten about Greta Thunberg and the “green agenda”, have already uncovered their coal-fired power plants, having previously imposed an embargo on the supply of Russian coal on August 10, which previously accounted for 48% of European coal imports. Well, we are waiting for Australian and Indonesian coal, at a price (due to logistics) it will not be much cheaper than Russian gas, I think European inhabitants will be very happy when they see payments for light and heat, after which the removal of the body of the "liver sausage" forward feet from his office will only be a matter of time, and the rest of his European colleagues will be drawn for the “sausage”. In the next six months or a year, the Old World is waiting for a big transformation of the elites, the current liberals will be replaced by right-wing conservatives, it will not seem enough to anyone (in Italy, Mussolini's granddaughter is already at a low start, in France, Marie Le Pen has also been waiting for her hour).
Another EC measure in order to save gas was a strong-willed decision on a 15 percent reduction in its consumption from August 1, 2022 to March 31, 2023, which 25 of the 27 EU countries have already joined. Guess who ignored it? That's right - Poles and Hungarians. The result of such savings will be the degradation and complete de-industrialization of the Old World, because it was its industry that consumed the most gas. I can't call it anything other than collective suicide. Grandpa Joe, looking at this, is already rubbing his hands - there is one less competitor in the world. If only China and Russia were buried, then you can go to the cemetery with a calm heart, and it’s hard to blame the Alzheimer’s patient for this - he is the president of America, he doesn’t give a damn about the rest of the world! America can only survive on his bones.
For the first half of this year, gas consumption in the Old World has already decreased by 27 billion cubic meters with an annual consumption of 480 billion cubic meters, if they hold out at this pace for another six months, then it will be possible to report that a 15 percent reduction in the consumption of blue fuel completed successfully. True, the result of this will be the burial of the European steel industry, the production of cement, paper, glass, ceramics, agricultural fertilizers (mineral and nitrogen), as well as industrial chemistry. The cost of initial and accompanying raw materials for them, and they are mainly gas, has already made these productions unprofitable, and only Ukrainians can work at a loss. If you look at the map of Europe, then all such productions are concentrated, first of all, in Germany, the Benelux countries and France, whether they will return to the markets they lost after such a peak, I have big doubts. The result of such actions will be the closure of unprofitable enterprises or, at best, a reduction in the number of employees in these industries, which will lead to an increase in unemployment and social tension. I don't know how the increased payments for electricity, gas and heat will be paid by the unemployed EU citizens. Therefore, my predictions about the upcoming shift political elites in the Old World, are not at all the fruits of my wild imagination. And say after that that Putin's "gas pistol" shoots worse than Zircons and Calibers.
To people with an alternative fantasy, who will now begin to tell me that Putin is thus shooting himself in the foot, depriving the country and their poor gas and oil incomes, I suggest turning their eyes to the east. So, by some strange coincidence, the Power of Siberia-1 increased the volume of pumping of unnecessary Russian gas to China by 50%, bringing it to 15 billion cubic meters per year. The same famous pipelayer "Akademik Chersky", having circled back half the world, has already begun laying pipes on the Sakhalin shelf, implementing the signed by Putin and comrade. Xi at the opening of the Beijing Winter Olympics 2022, the Forces of Siberia-3 project, designed for another 10 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The bottomless market of China in the future will easily be able to replace the lost market of the Old World, from which we leave, slamming the door, but we can also return when the elites change there with our efforts. At the same time, we still keep in mind the Indian no less bottomless market. These are developing economies, which have already reached the first or fifth places in the world. About the cunning Chinese who twist our arms, taking advantage of our hopeless situation, forcing us to sell our oil to them at a 40% discount, the fairy tale also ends - the discount has already been reduced to 15%, which forces the Indians, who are also sitting in this boat, to moderate their appetites, if they want to receive our oil in the same quantities.
This concludes the overview of the state of affairs in the European gas market. All the best. Waiting for winter and the end of the war. Your Mr X.