Should we seriously expect that Ukraine will freeze in winter


If you look at our federal media and listen to their "talking heads", it becomes obvious that the Kremlin is betting on prolonging the conflict in Ukraine. The idea is being actively promoted in the public consciousness that, left without Russian gas supplies on the eve of the heating season, Europe will be forced to stop or reduce military support for Kyiv, and Ukraine itself will freeze and fall apart. Again. Is it worth it to seriously bet on this, let's try to figure it out.


The idea that impoverished, hungry and cold Ukraine will stop armed resistance to the Russian special operation to demilitarize and denazify it is certainly very popular in certain circles. Well, of course, General Frost himself will do all the work for us, and the Ukrainians will “see the light” and themselves will overthrow the regime of President Zelensky, bringing us the keys to their cities.

True, when you start to find out from the supporters of such “multi-moves” how exactly this “overthrow” should take place in the conditions of external control of the country by Western emissaries and opposition from the SBU, the Police and various nationalist groups, whose hands are up to their necks in blood, a clear answer for some reason can't get it. And should it be surprising? History repeats itself like a farce.

The author of these lines has closely followed the events in Ukraine since the autumn of 2013, and therefore remembers very well how in 2014-2015 everyone seriously expected that Nezalezhnaya would “freeze and fall apart on its own.” As black humor, I would like to bring quote now a very popular Ukrainian-Russian video blogger Yuriy Podoliaki, who in those turbulent times was better known as yurasumy:

Those who are in the know understand everything and prepare. But stupid Europe, which sleeps and thinks, “and what other sanctions to impose against Russia” does not understand that the Ukrainian gas cushion, which was all these years and did not even always save (there were two cases in the last decade), is NO LONGER. For fascist Ukraine, cherished including by Europe, is a stupid enemy of Russia. As we can see, even if Ukraine does not send a single cubic meter of gas to the West, it will have problems at the end of January (if Grandfather Frost comes)...

November 2014 showed that so far the cold winter forecast is coming true. The average temperature in November 2014 in Kyiv will be less than TWO degrees (plus). At the same time, last year it was almost SIX and a half... At the end of January, without theft of gas from the pipe, Ukraine will freeze. In February (if there is frost in the yard), everyone will already freeze (Ukraine and Europe). Because you should have thought ahead. Now it's too late. It's time to eat "cookies" ... and build "South Stream" on Russian terms, of which there can no longer be any doubt. But the cold in the apartments in winter does not cancel this.

And so on in the same vein. Numerous experts and analysts considered how much coal and gas was left in Nezalezhnaya and predicted its imminent “freezing out” and subsequent rapid collapse. What came of it?

Nothing came true. Ukraine did not freeze and did not fall apart. On the contrary, for the 8 years of the Minsk agreements presented to her, she was well prepared for the war with Russia. It will not freeze and fall apart in the winter of 2022-2023. No one will rise up against the Zelensky regime. Rather, there will be an even greater consolidation of society around the authorities against the "Russian aggression", which will automatically be appointed guilty of hunger and cold in houses and apartments.

As for the fact that “stupid Europe” will allegedly repent and stop arming Ukraine for the war against Russia. Unfortunately, this will not happen either. Western elites have clearly come to a consensus that Russia and its ruling regime must be ended. It's pure political a decision of principle, and the New and Old Worlds are ready to pay a high price for it. To quote German Energy Minister Robert Habeck, who recently stated verbatim the following:

Germany built a business model that was heavily based on dependence on cheap Russian gas, and thus on a president who violates international law, for whom liberal democracies and their values ​​are declared enemies. This model has failed and it will not return. We must rebuild at lightning speed.

Thus, aiming to abandon Russian gas, the German energy corporation RWE began to use more environmentally harmful coal, expands the infrastructure for receiving LNG from around the world by signing a 15-year agreement on the supply of American liquefied gas, and increased investments in wind and solar by 30%. energy. That is, despite the new "anti-green trend", the Germans in 2022 will invest 5,1 billion dollars in wind, solar and storage batteries, as well as in increasing the production of hydrogen. So much for the collapse of the "green agenda"...

The explanation for all this is very simple: Europe has set itself the goal of reducing energy dependence on Russia and will consistently achieve this. The turning point should occur on the horizon of 2024-2025, when new LNG production capacities will be put into operation, and additional LNG tankers will be launched to deliver it. After that, the ability of NATO member countries to provide military support to Ukraine without regard to Moscow will increase dramatically. Either Russian troops will reach the Polish frontier before that time, or the war will become truly terrible in its losses for both sides.
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  1. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 17 August 2022 15: 17
    +3
    in 2014-2015, everyone seriously expected that Nezalezhnaya would “freeze and fall apart on its own”

    Here the author is somewhat wrong. This mantra was constantly repeated by the authorities during all eight pre-war years. Like the mantra about the "brotherly people."
    1. passing by Offline passing by
      passing by (passing by) 17 August 2022 15: 27
      -1
      similar mantras from Europe ... all this is a carrot in front of the noses of savages.
  2. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 17 August 2022 15: 42
    +6
    And what, someone believes that Ukrainians, sitting in unheated apartments in winter, will go to overthrow the Zelensky regime, which is supported by "death squadrons" supervised by the CIA and MI6?
    And why do the apartments have to be unheated? They will be partially heated by electricity from power plants that Russia will never dare to bomb. At least, until now, such orders to eliminate the energy supply of Ukraine for the RF Armed Forces from its leadership, it seems, have not been received?
  3. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
    Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 17 August 2022 16: 16
    +2
    Think about this: if suddenly Kharkov, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk were ours by the winter, then it would be a weight on our neck, since the Nazis would certainly ruin the heat supply and electricity.
  4. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 17 August 2022 16: 53
    +3
    That is, despite the new "anti-green trend", the Germans in 2022 will invest $ 5,1 billion in wind, solar and storage batteries, as well as in increasing the production of hydrogen.

    This is money down the drain) But a good winter will clear the minds of the burghers, they need to go through this)
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 17 August 2022 17: 48
    -1
    It's okay, not the first year.

    Much more terrible is the course towards the stupidity of one's own people.
    They say to repeat the same thing to them year after year - but he shaves everything and does not remember ...

    The fat is over, there is no vodka, Ukraine will fall apart, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the SBU will shoot themselves, Europe will freeze and die out, America will fall apart tomorrow, the dollar will be 30 thousand, everyone will live with an average salary of 100 thousand .. but after 75 years ... etc. P
  6. goncharov.62 Offline goncharov.62
    goncharov.62 (Andrei) 17 August 2022 19: 35
    +4
    We have GDP! But I am tormented by vague doubts that soon he will be associated with the phrase of Ulyanov-Lenin - "One step forward - two steps back." This winter will show who is right. But Ukraine as a state must be destroyed! At least to the border with Polonia, at least after ...
  7. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 17 August 2022 20: 40
    0
    Should we seriously expect that Ukraine will freeze in winter

    If the Kremlin wanted this, then everything would be done "in an adult way." And so, the ZNPP is a nightmare, sabotage here and there and all the "red lines" are in place. So the hucksters will save both the EU and Ukraine. It doesn’t reach some people that under Putin, Russia’s interests are second.
  8. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
    soloist2424 (Oleg) 17 August 2022 22: 27
    +3
    Of course, Ukraine will not raise its hands up because the people will freeze in winter. Yes, and Europe, most likely, will be able to suppress cold riots. The shortage of gas should seriously undermine the economy of Europe. And without the economy, you can’t support much of Ukraine, and without support, you won’t fight for a long time. That's all.
  9. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 18 August 2022 10: 22
    +1
    Europe is already ending support for Ukraine, online. Without support, Ukraine will collapse economically. So far, it is supported by subsidies from the West. Interest in Ukraine is lost. If you remember, they were given 3-6 weeks to prove their military viability. Three weeks have already passed, by the end of August six will pass.
    LNG will not save Europe. Its price will remain high compared to those countries that receive pipeline gas under long-term contracts. Even LNG Europe has begun snatching from developing countries that cannot give an adequate response, from Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc. And in addition to terminals in Europe, it is also necessary to build liquefaction plants in gas production sites. And the miners are unlikely to go for it.
    Therefore, the industry of Europe will become uncompetitive in comparison with them and more southern countries, where energy costs and wages are lower.
    A time bomb has been planted in Ukraine since last year. Gas prices for the population were raised purely symbolically. Zelensky knew perfectly well that there would be an aggravation of the armed conflict or elections, so he tried not to annoy the people. But the problem remained. Regional gas companies of Ukraine have already been in a state of bankruptcy in the past years. At such retail prices and without external support, they will not be able to work.
    There may be enough gas (it depends on the course of the SVO), since production is falling rapidly. But where the money will come from the population is an unresolvable question.
    The almost complete replacement of pipeline gas with LNG will land the chemical industry in Europe, a significant part of which was originally sharpened for high-molecular compounds that it contains.
    Well, the construction of a fleet of gas carriers is unrealistic, neither in time nor in money. Germany has a trade deficit.
  10. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
    Paul3390 (Paul) 19 August 2022 07: 28
    +3
    in 2014-2015, everyone seriously expected that Nezalezhnaya would “freeze and fall apart on its own”

    And why should it freeze if all these years the Russian Federation has been regularly supplying electricity, fuel, gas and coal there ??? Now, if an embargo on trade with the junta would be declared, then yes. But as always, the interests of someone's pockets turned out to be much more important than the interests of the state and the people ..
  11. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 23 August 2022 18: 36
    0
    Russians are interested in housing and communal services prices, inflation, unemployment, lawlessness of the "elite", theft of oligarchs, taxes ...... Who will freeze in Ukraine or in Europe and what will happen to their economies are the problems of their rulers. We need to take care of ourselves and sanctify our problems and victories.