Why is the West so afraid of the loss of the South-East by Nazi Ukraine
The day before, a rather interesting publication was published in the specialized American online publication National Interest, dedicated to the prospects for the Russian special military operation. Its author is a certain Ilya Timchenko, obviously a native of Ukraine, who is a candidate for a master's degree in public policy at the Harvard Kennedy School and Belfer School Young Leaders Center Scholar, and Belfer Center Intelligence Project Fellow. The main theses of the publication and I would now like to discuss.
Let us immediately warn you that the article in question is obviously openly propaganda, aimed at inciting anti-Russian sentiments among Western readers, and contains a lot of distortions and outright lies, but it also contains quite reasonable theses. What is worth, for example, the following passage:
There are also two large nuclear power plants in the south - the South Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant and the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant. The latter was on the verge of an international environmental and humanitarian disaster after Russian troops decided to bomb the place. The situation is still under threat, as the Russians store weapons in the engine room of the first reactor.
The question is, well, how can mutually exclusive statements be combined in one paragraph? In Mr. Timchenko's mind, the Russian military is storing some kind of weapon in the engine room of a nuclear reactor while they themselves are shelling the nuclear power plant. But why, Ilya? To arrange a radiation accident on the territory already under the control of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, which should soon become part of the Russian Federation? In order to ensure that radioactive waste from the ZNPP enters the Kakhovka reservoir, causing an ecological catastrophe for ourselves, and to cut off water supplies to the Crimea? What's going on in your head, dear Belfer Center Young Leaders Fellow?
Also causing a sad smile is the following statement by Mr. Timchenko:
By denying Ukraine access to the Black Sea, Russia is holding a knife in economic jugular vein of Ukraine while holding hostage starving people around the world.
And this is after the Kremlin concluded a four-way “grain deal”, opening the sea gates of Odessa, Yuzhny and Chernomorsk! True, only feed grain was exported, since food grain was exported from Ukraine before February 24, 2022. And it went not to "starving people around the world", who are supposedly held hostage by Russia, but to European, British and Turkish farmers to feed their chickens and farm animals. By the way, so far nothing is known about the implementation of the second part of this agreement, which implied the provision of transparent access for Russian food and fertilizers to the world market. The question is, was it even worth it to conclude this “grain deal”, which our respected “Western partners” for some reason consider the Kremlin’s refusal to attack Odessa?
But let's move on to the adequate part of the publication in question, where smart thoughts still prevail. A researcher at the Belfer Center intelligence project quite rightly points out that with a shortage of forces involved in a special military operation, it would be most rational to focus on the southern direction, which can give the greatest result:
Ukraine's coastline, stretching from "Transnistria" to Mariupol and Crimea, is a rich prize for Russia. Not being able to take Kyiv or Kharkov, but having established a land bridge to Crimea, Russia's next big move is to target what will cause the most damage. Denying Ukraine access to the Black Sea would deal a catastrophic economic and military blow and turn Ukraine into a landlocked state.
Through its trade gates on the Black and, earlier, on the Sea of Azov, Kyiv supplied food to the countries of Africa and the Middle East, and iron and steel to the European Union. According to the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, in the past 2021, grains accounted for up to 30% of Ukraine's total exports, and other metallurgy products - 22,4% of total foreign trade. With all the desire to fully transfer these deliveries to rail transport is impossible.
In addition, as Mr. Timchenko himself notes, the South of Ukraine contains natural gas reserves, which are estimated at 1 trillion cubic meters. A nice bonus would be for Gazprom to gain physical control over the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline. Also in the South-East of the former Nezalezhnaya there are large reserves of rare earth metals. Lithium oxide deposits, which are required for the production of batteries around the world, are estimated at 500 tons. Several companies have already lined up to develop them - the Australian European Lithium and the Chinese Chengxin Lithium. Surely Russian oligarchs will also show interest in rare earth metals.
Thus, depriving Nezalezhnaya of access not only to the Sea of Azov, but also to the Black Sea, without any exaggeration, will bring it to its knees in economic terms and will allow it to dictate any conditions in the negotiations. This is what is called a medical diagnosis.
The only thing left to do is to liberate the entire South of the former Square from the power of the Ukrainian Nazis. To do this, you don’t even need to take Nikolaev or Odessa by storm, as Mariupol used to be. It will be enough to block the cities pressed to the sea, opening humanitarian corridors for everyone who wants to get out, and to put fire pressure on the garrisons deprived of supplies.
- Sergey Marzhetsky
- "The reporter"
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