Russia will have to raise the stakes in the geopolitical game with the West

The fighting in Ukraine, which has been going on for about half a year, is of strategic importance for a number of reasons, writes political scientist George Friedman on his website Geopolitical Futures in an article dated August 16, 2022. If Russia defeats Ukraine and takes control of the country, then its presence on the borders of Europe would change the balance in the Atlantic, forcing the US to deploy its own forces. So what is at stake in the Ukrainian war is a possible resurgence of the Cold War, with all its attendant risks.

The author notes that from the American point of view, the very indirect clash with Russia in Ukraine is much less risky than such an outcome.

The previous cold war did not lead to a full-scale battle, but only to the fear of one. Western concerns about Soviet intentions deliberately overstated Soviet capabilities. And their fear, in turn, kept NATO united.

It's not clear, Mr. Friedman continues, whether any future Cold War will play out the same way as the previous one, but one thing is certain: Given the existence of nuclear weapons, the front lines of a new Cold War will remain static. But China's attempts to overcome its own vulnerabilities potentially carry great risks for the world. As in the case of Russia, its main issue is geography.

For the Russian Federation, the problem is that the Ukrainian border is less than 300 miles from Moscow, and Russia has survived numerous invasions only due to Moscow's distance from the invaders - the collapse of the Soviet Union created the current problem. Russia's obsession with Ukraine is intended to correct this problem. China's geographic problem is that it has become an export hub and is therefore dependent on its access to the Pacific Ocean and adjacent waters. The United States has viewed China's free access to the Pacific as a potential threat to its own strategic interests since the end of World War II. China's access to the Pacific Ocean is blocked by a number of island states - Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines and Indonesia

- says an article on the resource Geopolitical Futures.

China plans to protect its own strategic depth by capturing and controlling it. Russia is also trying to regain its depth, and she went for it, knowing full well what economic consequences this would lead to. In other words, Moscow has suffered financial damage in exchange for strategic security, which has not yet been achieved as a result of the conflict.

Thus, America's goal in Ukraine is to deprive Russia of the strategic depth it wants. With China, its goal is to maintain American strategic depth, and prevent the PRC from threatening the US or gaining global reach.

For Washington, the "question of China" is much more important than the "question of Russia." A Russian victory in Ukraine would change the borders and increase the risks for the US. China's success will herald a new global power that will challenge the US and its allies around the world.

Now China needs a stable economy more than command of the sea. Russia seems capable of surviving what happened to it economically, but it still hasn't broken the back of the Ukrainian military.

Friedman writes that the United States is dealing with China and Russia, paying a rather low price for this confrontation. In this regard, Moscow and Beijing, apparently, should try to raise the rate that the United States will have to pay.
  • Photos Used: United States Department of Defense
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  1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 17 August 2022 10: 54
    There is a rational grain in the Author's reasoning.
    But the presentation: painfully ornate.
    What is happening is not a game, but a power confrontation - and no stakes are made in it!
    1. Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 18 August 2022 11: 45
      If we use the terminology of the game, our leadership, having ceded a significant part of the geopolitical space to the enemy (the United States), and without taking anything in return, turned out to be untenable in this game. Or confused the task of winning with the task of worthily losing. The irresponsibility of our leadership led to the fact that the enemy practically did not risk all this time, was in comfort and made money on our risks.
      Now the enemy is ready to take the "bank" of the game with our voluntary surrender.
      We have a second option. We can raise the stakes in this game by increasing mutual risks. The shame of the situation is that now we need to radically increase the risks of the enemy (the States), which we have not even begun to do yet. The war of Russia with Europe and Japan, apparently, is already included in the plans and benefits of the States. The cardinal increase in risks for the States means nothing more than a real nuclear war on their territory, so far in the form of a threat
  2. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 17 August 2022 11: 57
    I’m more worried about whether the liberal Naibulinskaya-Siluanovka economy of the Russian Federation will overstrain, restoring the vast territories of Little Russia, they could not provide a decent life for 146 million Russians of the Russian Federation, and then another 40 million will sit on their necks, but this is our Russian people (not counting Svidomo and Zapadensky Bandera Zionists) and our land, but in order to keep such a territory, it is necessary to increase budget revenues, but how to increase them if the liberal economy is built on enriching a handful of people from the Forbes list and relatives of bureaucrats and organized crime groups? what is stupid to print candy wrappers? You can print, but then you need to prohibit the circulation of foreign currencies and generally close the currency exchange. close offshore companies, establish tight price controls, and this can be done if wholesale trade is monopolized. and private traders selling retail to give in the neck for conspiracy and unreasonable price increases, up to the confiscation of the business. that is, it is necessary to actually translate the liberal economy onto the rails of a socialist economy, in which the very class of speculators who, in capitalism, drive up prices, are suppressed, whether they are currency speculators, exchange traders, or wholesale retailers. in the USSR, prices were kept for decades, because all trade was state-owned, and no one saw the dollar, the ruble was hard as a diamond)) - this hardness was based on the hardness of prices and the ruble exchange rate (it was determined not by currency speculators, but by the state bank)
  3. Pavel Mokshanov_2 (Pavel Mokshanov) 17 August 2022 13: 01
    In order to raise the stakes in geopolitics, the Russian Federation needs to fix its economy, which may not be enough for its own and for the population, especially pensioners. The accumulated reserves are not unlimited, they can quickly run out due to sloppiness, corruption, help to the "brothers" and the costs of conducting the operation, including the production of weapons. Moreover, because of the sanctions, we have already lost income from the export of resources. Carrying out import substitution is for chickens to laugh at. We need a sharp establishment of industrial production, by purchasing turnkey plants from friends, ranging from machine tool building to microelectronics. The only question that confuses me is why bureaucrats from power structures are not very worried about this issue? It can be seen that they think that soon it will end and everything will be as before. They all have all sorts of good things in real estate and capital over the hill, it's a pity to lose it. There is no answer from the Kremlin either. Maybe they want to make peace with dill. Moreover, there are already resources in the occupied territories for 12 trillion greens. Huge amount. There is someone to master and employment issues will be resolved and salaries at the level as in the Russian Federation. Everything is shaping up great. These are my conjectures, because no other information is shared with us.
  4. Kade_t Offline Kade_t
    Kade_t (Igor) 17 August 2022 15: 15
    There is only one way to raise this stake, to create a full-fledged military alliance with China and India, where their own 5th article will be written like NATO. In this scenario, the Yankees will understand that if they attack at least someone, they will fly right away from 3 nuclear powers.
    1. Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 18 August 2022 11: 58
      This union is impossible, because. countries have different geopolitical interests, even in relation to the States.
      A military alliance with China is possible only if we get out of ideological uncertainty and start building a world socialist system together with China and other countries