The Spectator revealed the meaning of Putin's "European game"


Six months of the "new world" that emerged from the moment the special military operation in Ukraine began, flew by unnoticed. But there is a hard winter ahead. Russia is again betting on "General Moroz". Rather than freeze the German advance on Moscow, the Kremlin's plan today is to freeze the German pensioners in Berlin. Western sanctions are causing serious inconvenience to the Russian the economycausing inflation and unemployment. The stakes are higher than ever, and they are done. Sam Ashworth-Hayes, a columnist for The Spectator magazine, writes about this.


In turn, Russian restrictions on gas will raise energy prices in Europe to the sky, and the EU leadership will be forced to impose restrictions on its citizens. The point of Putin's "European game" is that Russia's willingness to endure economic hardship is greater than that of the West. This is a kind of geostrategic "pain threshold" of states, and it is better developed in Russia. As Hayes writes, the fact that the Russian Federation survived does not mean that the measures of the West do not work, it’s just that “Russians are used to” enduring all hardships and not complaining.

By winter, Europe could literally be on the verge of a real cold war, due to low temperatures in households, and not because of political heat. Currently, Russia restricts gas flows through the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, which is only 20 percent loaded. Supply cuts are pushing up energy prices across Europe, and the threat of further disruptions is forcing European governments to commit to large-scale reductions in gas consumption. The Swift Center predicts that the chance of a shutdown is about 30%, which, of course, is not necessarily likely, but is too high to ignore the warning.

But the very “pain threshold” of the Russians will just help to wait for the moment when the Germans will receive bills 300% more expensive than last year. The majority of the population already opposes tightening sanctions against Russia if it leads to a significant increase in energy prices. Citizens hardly support maintaining the current Western sanctions in the face of a slight increase, let alone a further deterioration in life. You can't sit on the sidelines, the Russians know how to wait too, warns Hayes.

It is even easier to calculate the British, who at some point may feel that the Ukrainian conflict is fundamentally not their personal war. The queen's subjects may simply come to the conclusion that they are better off keeping warm in the winter than supporting something far away.

The open question is whether the West is ready to pay for Ukraine's victory with itself?

- summed up the expert.
  • Used photos: kremlin.ru
13 comments
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  1. Monster_Fat Offline Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat (What's the difference) 7 August 2022 10: 52
    -3
    I will put it this way: the so-called difficulties with gas in Europe are greatly exaggerated in the Russian media. In fact, the rise in price for consumers in the EU amounted to 20-30%, which is not critical for the European consumer. It is planned to rise in price by another 20-30% in winter, which, again, will not hit the pockets of Europeans too much, especially since financial support is provided for the poor in this regard - partial compensation for the rise in price. In Russia, gas prices rise by 10-20% every year and they don't even notice it anymore.
    1. Anatole 46 Online Anatole 46
      Anatole 46 (Anatoly) 7 August 2022 11: 19
      +2
      Quote: Monster_Fat
      I will put it this way: the so-called difficulties with gas in Europe are greatly exaggerated in the Russian media. In fact, the rise in price for consumers in the EU amounted to 20-30%, which is not critical for the European consumer.

      Yes, it’s not the rise in price that hits Europe, that’s exactly what they will cope with, you can’t argue here. The papers will be cut and distributed.
      Physically, there is no gas! There is nowhere for it to come from in the previous volumes, well, printing presses have not yet learned how to produce gas. No LNG, no pipeline.
    2. URIAN Offline URIAN
      URIAN (URIAN) 7 August 2022 12: 27
      +3
      This is where in Russia the price of gas increases by 10-20%? The law provides for growth of no more than 3,4% per year. Last year I paid 9,58 rubles/m3 for gas, this year - 9,8 rubles. Growth - 2,3%. DO NOT spread fake news.
      1. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
        steelmaker 9 August 2022 07: 44
        0
        And on the basis of what you raised the price of gas? And what has the government done to reduce the price of gas instead of raising it? Or what should be done to reduce the price of gas? Secondly, the price of gas may have risen by 2,3%, and food and manufactured goods that depend on gas have been raised by how much? How much are salaries and pensions? Don't upset me with your level of education.
    3. The comment was deleted.
  2. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 August 2022 12: 11
    +2
    Americans scare themselves. For them, even this makes commercial sense. As for Russia, since the time of Yeltsin it has been firmly sitting on the "hook" of the States. Take, for example, the Central Bank and its tribute to the States in the form of half of our reserves, and payments on public debt transferred to the "thief".
    I think that the existing government is a "front" that speaks the right words for the people. Her actions differ significantly from these words. Behind this screen is an economic apparatus entirely subordinate to the West.
    Obviously - it has gone like this since the time of Yeltsin. After Putin came to power, only her words have changed. We have deceived ourselves with our hope for a "good king".
    There are two options:
    First: Putin found himself in a situation where he did not have the opportunity to really change anything. His mistake is that he did not immediately turn to the people (and people expected this from him all the time), did not try at the very beginning to return the power of the people, which would put everything in its place. For him, it was the risk of losing control of the country. But he lost everything as a result.
    Second: Crimea and so on - a talented game of a scout in the service of the West. In this version, no errors are visible. Even Crimea will return to the hands of the West after the defeat of Russia in its war "against all"
    I don’t know if Russia still has a chance to put itself under the control of its interests - I know one thing - this path lies through the restoration of people’s control over power, the Central Bank, big capital and the army of officials.
    To answer the question - How ?, we need to recall the Time of Troubles from our history and how we managed to end it
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 August 2022 12: 37
      +2
      We need a mass popular ruling party instead of a sham multi-party system
    2. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 7 August 2022 14: 13
      +1
      The fact that Russia is subordinate to the United States gives them a good tool in managing Europe.
      What? - you ask. Yes, for example, with these same gas supplies from Russia.
      The ultimate goal of the States in relation to Russia, apparently, is to push it against Europe in the Great War, thereby:
      - remove from your road by proxy once and for all (destroy) Russia
      - minimize the threat of using its strategic nuclear weapons on its own
      - appropriate its natural resources (they themselves will fall into the hands)
      - remove Europe from the contenders for the appropriated wealth
      - deprive China of possible allies, both from Russia and (what the hell is it) and from Europe
      - get huge profits for weapons in the process
      - earn on the restoration of Europe
      etc. etc.
      The result, apparently, should be complete subordination to the States of the European part of the world
      1. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 13 August 2022 22: 18
        +1
        Alexey, what do you think, in the Russian leadership, they don’t even know about the troubles you listed? With such pressure on any minimization of the threat of a nuclear strike, it does not stand up to criticism at all. On the contrary, it increases the risks of a strike in order to stop the Americans' wishes now and in the future. Putin will talk to Xi and begin to slowly knock out mattress covers from both Europe and Asia. It's absolutely inevitable. America is gangrene on the body of all nations. Only amputation so that the whole organism does not die. It will hurt, but there is no other way.
        1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
          Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 19 August 2022 11: 13
          0
          slowly beat out

          When applied to the United States in relation to Europe and Asia, this is cunning, calculated on the naivety of the interlocutor. No one has yet been able to "slowly" wage war, because this is the most stupid way to surrender to the enemy, not to mention the fact that the States will not allow anyone to knock them out "quietly". As for our "European" part of the task, for 20 years the government has not provided Russia with either the economy or the population to solve it, not to mention its cannibalistic nature. We will simply bleed on this battlefield for the glory of America, giving her everything we have
  3. opportunist Offline opportunist
    opportunist (dim) 7 August 2022 13: 36
    +2
    Shutting down Russian gas will not hurt European consumers. Europe's ruling elites don't give a damn about the middle and lower classes. Cuts in cheap Russian gas and rising energy prices will hit European and especially German companies. puts it at a disadvantage in the world market compared to competitors, especially from China. For decades, Europe and especially Germany had a great advantage because they spent little money on weapons and received cheap Russian energy. That is why Germany has become the fourth largest economy planet and in Europe's steam engine. but now everything will change Europeans will be forced to pay more money for energy by reducing their production. the euro has already begun to fall making a similar course against the dollar.
  4. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 7 August 2022 13: 47
    -1
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    In Russia, gas prices rise by 10-20% every year and they don't even notice it anymore.

    Write nonsense. What is the rise in price of 10-20% of gas in Russia, what are you talking about? And the fact that the West stocked up on gas, drawing conclusions and throwing this information into the media, on the percentage of UGS filling and not its volumes, suggests that they are cunning and more precisely, they mislead people. How much gas does everyone in Europe hold in UGS and how much they consume over the winter is 3 times higher, in my opinion, exactly higher. several times faster than they had in past winters.
  5. The comment was deleted.
  6. Stanislav Bykov Offline Stanislav Bykov
    Stanislav Bykov (Stanislav) 7 August 2022 21: 49
    0
    Quote: Monster_Fat
    I will put it this way: the so-called difficulties with gas in Europe are greatly exaggerated in the Russian media. In fact, the rise in price for consumers in the EU amounted to 20-30%, which is not critical for the European consumer. It is planned to rise in price by another 20-30% in winter, which, again, will not hit the pockets of Europeans too much, especially since financial support is provided for the poor in this regard - partial compensation for the rise in price. In Russia, gas prices rise by 10-20% every year and they don't even notice it anymore.

    You turn on your brains a little, if for the average consumer it is "tolerant", then what about industry and production, given that it has grown. Do they still use gas? And where will they even get gas, in principle, if Russia turns off the valve? About gas prices in Russia, in general, it’s complete nonsense, you don’t live in Russia, but you write all sorts of rubbish
  7. Vova Zhelyabov Offline Vova Zhelyabov
    Vova Zhelyabov (Vova Zhelyabov) 9 August 2022 02: 19
    0
    They press on for pity, bastards!