Russia will pay for the opportunity to be friends with Belarus
Ранее we already told that the so-called "oil war" is brewing between Russia and the Republic of Belarus. Alexander Lukashenko, in his corporate identity, managed to draw the attention of the Kremlin to the negative consequences that the “tax maneuver” in the Russian oil sector would entail for Belarusian petrochemists. High-level negotiations on the possibilities of resolving a difficult situation have begun.
So still, what is the essence of Minsk’s claims to Moscow?
The reason is the device itself economic models of modern Belarus, which is largely based on the purchase at a discount of Russian oil, refining and subsequent sale abroad with an extra charge. The preservation of this scheme was one of the main conditions for the participation of the Republic of Belarus in integration projects in the post-Soviet space - the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union.
What exactly does Minsk earn?
At firstThis is an export sale of oil purchased from the Russian Federation and refined at Belarusian oil refineries. In numbers, it looks as follows: for the first half of this year, according to this scheme, “black gold” was purchased by petrochemists from the fraternal republic at a discount of 18 dollars from the world market price. The profit thus obtained replenished the budget of Belarus.
SecondlyThis is a “friendly” customs clearance. Moscow and Minsk previously agreed on a curious subsidy scheme for the Belarusian treasury: annually 6 million tons of Russian oil is pumped through the Druzhba pipeline through the union state, the profits from its sale go to the budget of the Russian Federation, but from there it is transferred back to the budget of the Republic of Belarus.
ThirdlyThis is a resale for export of Russian petroleum products delivered to the Allies at a reduced price. According to some reports, only part of the petrochemical products of the Russian Federation goes directly to the needs of Belarus, which happens with the leftovers, experts explain:
However, it is already obvious that they are going abroad.
FourthlyThis is an exciting game with tax evasion for the export of Russian petroleum products. In order not to pay the due payments to Moscow, oil products are disguised as goods not subject to duties. Previously, they took the form of “solvents” and “diluents,” now they are “antioxidants” and “antiknock agents." The fact that the scheme is working is evidenced by an increase in demand for Russian oil products: in 2017 it amounted to 3,3 million tons, this year it is already one and a half times more.
The developed system of economic relations between Russia and Belarus can be characterized as follows:
And maybe not only them. But now these slender schemes can break the so-called "Tax maneuver" in the Russian oil industry. According to this innovation, export duty rates will be nullified, but the mineral extraction tax will begin to rise. In practice, this will mean that Russian refineries will receive compensation from the federal budget of the Russian Federation, while Belarusian ones will not, which will drastically reduce their export earnings. Minsk has already calculated that next year, in this situation, they will receive less than $ 300 million, and losses will increase by the same amount every year, reaching 2024 when the “maneuver” should end, to almost $ 2 billion.
Of course, Alexander Grigorievich could not let the situation go by chance and was the first to attack. The maximum program is to maintain the status quo so that Belarusian refineries begin to receive similar compensation. And, most likely, he will succeed. The only question is in what form the compensation will be implemented. The Russian government is interested in avoiding the “muddy” scheme of commodity subsidies with the transition to direct settlements between the budgets of the two states:
In addition, Moscow may try to push through the condition of delivery at preferential prices to Belarus of a clearly defined volume of oil products, which will go exclusively to its domestic needs.
As a matter of fact, this alone is the essence of the negotiations. Allied loyalty must be paid.
So still, what is the essence of Minsk’s claims to Moscow?
The reason is the device itself economic models of modern Belarus, which is largely based on the purchase at a discount of Russian oil, refining and subsequent sale abroad with an extra charge. The preservation of this scheme was one of the main conditions for the participation of the Republic of Belarus in integration projects in the post-Soviet space - the Customs Union and the Eurasian Economic Union.
What exactly does Minsk earn?
At firstThis is an export sale of oil purchased from the Russian Federation and refined at Belarusian oil refineries. In numbers, it looks as follows: for the first half of this year, according to this scheme, “black gold” was purchased by petrochemists from the fraternal republic at a discount of 18 dollars from the world market price. The profit thus obtained replenished the budget of Belarus.
SecondlyThis is a “friendly” customs clearance. Moscow and Minsk previously agreed on a curious subsidy scheme for the Belarusian treasury: annually 6 million tons of Russian oil is pumped through the Druzhba pipeline through the union state, the profits from its sale go to the budget of the Russian Federation, but from there it is transferred back to the budget of the Republic of Belarus.
ThirdlyThis is a resale for export of Russian petroleum products delivered to the Allies at a reduced price. According to some reports, only part of the petrochemical products of the Russian Federation goes directly to the needs of Belarus, which happens with the leftovers, experts explain:
This year, we delivered 2,1 million tons of oil products, where they go - is unclear.
However, it is already obvious that they are going abroad.
FourthlyThis is an exciting game with tax evasion for the export of Russian petroleum products. In order not to pay the due payments to Moscow, oil products are disguised as goods not subject to duties. Previously, they took the form of “solvents” and “diluents,” now they are “antioxidants” and “antiknock agents." The fact that the scheme is working is evidenced by an increase in demand for Russian oil products: in 2017 it amounted to 3,3 million tons, this year it is already one and a half times more.
The developed system of economic relations between Russia and Belarus can be characterized as follows:
Today it is a rather muddy water, in which Belarusians catch fish quite successfully.
And maybe not only them. But now these slender schemes can break the so-called "Tax maneuver" in the Russian oil industry. According to this innovation, export duty rates will be nullified, but the mineral extraction tax will begin to rise. In practice, this will mean that Russian refineries will receive compensation from the federal budget of the Russian Federation, while Belarusian ones will not, which will drastically reduce their export earnings. Minsk has already calculated that next year, in this situation, they will receive less than $ 300 million, and losses will increase by the same amount every year, reaching 2024 when the “maneuver” should end, to almost $ 2 billion.
Of course, Alexander Grigorievich could not let the situation go by chance and was the first to attack. The maximum program is to maintain the status quo so that Belarusian refineries begin to receive similar compensation. And, most likely, he will succeed. The only question is in what form the compensation will be implemented. The Russian government is interested in avoiding the “muddy” scheme of commodity subsidies with the transition to direct settlements between the budgets of the two states:
So that you can always open this account and show how much money Russia transferred.
In addition, Moscow may try to push through the condition of delivery at preferential prices to Belarus of a clearly defined volume of oil products, which will go exclusively to its domestic needs.
As a matter of fact, this alone is the essence of the negotiations. Allied loyalty must be paid.
- Sergey Marzhetsky
- http://eurasia.expert/
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