Under what conditions Moscow and Kyiv can agree on a ceasefire


As we have told Earlier, after a personal meeting with President Vladimir Putin, former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder made a number of important statements. In addition to the prospects for energy cooperation between Russia and Germany, Herr Schroeder also spoke about the armed conflict in Ukraine, which, in his words, "was a mistake" and Moscow would like to resolve it peacefully. I would like to talk in more detail about the prospects for a peaceful settlement on the wreckage of Nezalezhnaya.


Was it "a mistake"?


In an interview with n-tv, the ex-Chancellor of Germany said that the launch of a special operation in Ukraine "was a mistake of the Russian government." According to him, mutual concessions are needed to resolve the conflict, and the Kremlin is ready to seek a way out of the situation through negotiations. At the same time, Schroeder praised the unilateral “goodwill gesture” of the Russian leadership, which agreed to conclude a “grain deal” by opening Odessa and other Ukrainian ports for the export of grain:

Perhaps you can gradually expand it until a ceasefire. It was a big mistake to denigrate possible concessions to Ukraine as a peace dictated by Russia in advance.

Let's face it, all this sounded so contrary to the belligerent moods of Russian society, a significant part of which is waiting for the liberation of Odessa, Kharkov, Kyiv, and other cities of Ukraine, that the Kremlin had to urgently explain what a retired German politician said there.

Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov stressed that Russia is really ready to end the conflict peacefully, but on their conditions:

Russia was and remains ready to solve the Ukrainian problem through diplomacy on its own terms.

These conditions were announced by the Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation Vladimir Medinsky at a memorable meeting with the Ukrainian side in Istanbul, Dmitry Yuryevich recalled:

After that, the Ukrainian side refused this agreement... And yes, Russia is ready, our conditions are well known to the Ukrainian side. One way or another, they will be provided.

Let's try to remember everything we know about the conditions that the Kremlin puts forward under which the special operation can be considered successful.

What are we fighting for now?


It should be noted that the negotiations are held behind closed doors, because we do not have the full text of the proposals of both sides, and therefore conclusions and judgments have to be made on the basis of information leaked to the press. At the same time, the requirements are noticeably transformed over time, based on the situation at the front. So let's take a look at everything we know.

The main goal of the special military operation, President Vladimir Putin called helping the people of Donbass and the liberation of the territory of the DPR and LPR officially recognized by Russia. At the same time, some kind of demilitarization and denazification is envisaged for the rest of Ukraine. The fact that the Donbass, and along with it both the Crimea and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov is one question, and the future of the former Nezalezhnaya is another question, in fact, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov recently stated in plain text, responding in absentia to the initiative of the head of the DPR Denis Pushilin liberate Odessa, Kyiv, Lutsk and other native Russian cities. In any case, this follows from the literal interpretation of his words:

The Kremlin supports the mood that it is necessary to liberate Ukraine from all possible manifestations of neo-Nazi sentiments in general - this is necessary. And it is necessary to take measures (which, in fact, are being taken in line with a special military operation) in order to protect people in the LPR and DPR.

So what can Ukraine expect in the future, minus those territories where the foot of the Russian soldier did not reach?

During the initial stage of the negotiations, which took place on March 16-18, 2022, when the Russian Armed Forces were still standing near Kyiv, President Zelensky's regime agreed to the status of a conditionally neutral state, Vladimir Medinsky, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation, explained:

Ukraine offers an Austrian, Swedish version of a neutral demilitarized state, but at the same time a state with its own army and navy.


Moscow also insisted on a ban on the glorification of Nazism and tougher penalties for corresponding extremist activities.

It should be noted that Ukraine still has a neutral status enshrined in the Constitution, which does not prevent Zelensky from step by step surrendering the sovereignty of his country to neighboring Poland. Austria has been a neutral country since 1995, but this does not prevent it from participating in the NATO Partnership for Peace program. Well, Sweden, which recently filed an application to join NATO, is generally an irrelevant example.

The next meeting of the High Parties took place at the end of March in Istanbul. The conditions put forward by Kyiv were as follows.

At first, Ukraine proclaims itself a neutral state with a non-bloc and non-nuclear status, whose security guarantors are the United States, Great Britain, Turkey, France, China, Canada, Israel, Italy and Poland.

Secondly, Russia will not interfere with Ukraine's accession to the European Union.

Thirdly, Ukraine refuses for 15 years from trying to return the Crimea by force, only through negotiations. The question of the status of the DPR and LPR is taken out of the equation and should be decided at the level of the presidents of the two countries. At the same time, security guarantees should not extend to the territory of Crimea and Donbass.

And the icing on the cake is that an agreement on international legal guarantees must be approved at an all-Ukrainian referendum.

Recall that after the announcement of the position of Kyiv by Medinsky in Moscow, they decided on the first "gesture of goodwill", which was expressed in the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from the North of Ukraine, in the Kiev and Chernihiv directions.

The next source of insider information about the content of the negotiations was the Vedomosti publication. With reference to its knowledgeable sources, it is April 3, 2022 reportedthat negotiations with the Ukrainian side are going on in four key areas.

first. Ukraine is ready to agree to a non-bloc status, but with guarantees from Western countries in the presence of a mechanism similar to Article 5 of the NATO Charter.

Second. Russia insists on the demilitarization of Ukraine, which should be expressed in the reduction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to 50 thousand people and their refusal from long-range missile systems. Kyiv, on the other hand, insists on maintaining the size of its active army or on linking it, according to the Finnish model, to the population “by head” at the rate of 40 million people.

The third. Discussed political structure of Ukraine, while the emphasis is on the prohibition of right-wing political groups. About the possible federalization of the country or the status of the Russian language as the second state author of the lines could not find any information.

Fourth. Changing the boundaries of the Square is the most difficult issue in the negotiations. Moscow insists that Crimea is Russian and that the DPR and LPR are independent, but Kyiv is not ready to agree to this.

On July 18, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba, in an interview with the Ukrainian Forbes, actually refused to negotiate with Russia before its defeat at the front:

Let's first change the situation at the front, and then we'll talk. Everyone understands that negotiations are directly linked to the situation at the front. I say to all partners simply: “Russia must sit down at the negotiating table after the defeat on the battlefield. Otherwise, it will again be the language of ultimatums.”

Let us also note certain changes in the rhetoric of the Russian Foreign Ministry. On July 20, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that in connection with the receipt of long-range missile strike systems by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Russian Armed Forces will apply a “geographical approach” to ensure the national security of their country:

We cannot allow the part of Ukraine that Zelensky will control or whoever replaces him to have weapons that will pose a direct threat to our territory and the territory of those republics that have declared their independence, those who want to determine their future on their own.

On July 24, the Russian Foreign Minister publicly stated that Russia would help the Ukrainian people:

The Russian and Ukrainian people will continue to live together. We will definitely help the Ukrainian people get rid of the regime, which is absolutely anti-people and anti-historical.

The conclusions from this review about how the special operation will develop further, where the Russian troops will go with the allied forces, and how the results of the SVO can be drawn up, our dear readers will be able to draw on their own.
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  1. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 4 August 2022 18: 26
    +2
    Herr Schroeder also spoke about the armed conflict in Ukraine, which, in his words, "was a mistake" and also Schroeder said that Ukraine and Russia should give in to each other

    In general, Schroeder is a German, he primarily defends the interests of Germany. It is not his fault that Germany was headed by a "stupid" politician who completely caved in under the United States. The question is what does it mean to surrender? Russia should withdraw the troops of Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, Kharkiv region ... hang Crimea for another 15 years, and Donbass how it will turn out.
  2. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 4 August 2022 18: 27
    +1
    It should be noted that the negotiations are held behind closed doors, because we do not have the full text of the proposals of both sides, and therefore conclusions and judgments have to be made on the basis of information leaked to the press.

    Author!

    Who leaked information to the press?
    Inferences and judgments based on leaks are usually made by a plumber ...

    And most importantly, the NWO will end when "into Ukraine" ends, as a state entity, by dividing its territory between Russia, Poland, Hungary and, possibly, Romania
  3. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 4 August 2022 18: 27
    +4
    There is no need to guess here. The Kremlin can do this only by betraying its own people, as it was before: Minsk and Minsk-2. They don't shoot at the Kremlin, but the rest will suffer. If there is no betrayal, then there will be no negotiations.
    1. spectr Offline spectr
      spectr (Dmitriy) 5 August 2022 07: 48
      0
      Well, judging by how Blinken runs from Lavrov, there will definitely not be negotiations. I believe more in bringing Polish-American troops into the western part of Ukraine when we cross the Dnieper. In this case, it is understandable why Blinken is afraid to make contact.
  4. InanRom Offline InanRom
    InanRom (Ivan) 4 August 2022 18: 28
    +2
    Two sides of the same coin:
    one is the stupidity of the secret authorities:

    17.40 Ukrainian media and publics:
    In Ukraine, queues for firewood. Usually the season for selling firewood starts in October, but this year people have started to prepare fuel in advance due to predicted problems with gas.

    and this is the result of many years of conscious actions of the Ukrainian regime in relation to its own population.
    in the meantime:
    the second is the greed of the "national treasure":

    The sharp decline in gas supplies to Europe via Nord Stream has led to the fact that Gazprom has probably begun to burn blue fuel on an industrial scale, writes YLE, citing information received from eyewitnesses and information provided by NASA. A huge torch that appeared on June 17 near the border of Russia and Finland, near the Portovaya compressor station, which provides natural gas pumping, leads to the corresponding conclusion.

    instead of using the surplus inside the country and reducing prices for Russian consumers - of course it’s better to burn it - a typical phenomenon for capitalism ... Meanwhile, since July 1, prices for housing and communal services have risen and continue to rise for many other things, regardless of the ruble exchange rate or oil prices, etc.

    In principle, there can be no agreements with the Nazis at all! (This is if for good) and it doesn’t matter on what conditions ... In real life - no one will ask us - they will agree on how they want, (RF, USA, EU, etc. ) for a raven will not peck out a crow's eye. Nothing personal, just business...
    In the meantime, transit through 404 to Europe is going on and payment for it is stolen ...
    and the Ministry of Finance in their repertoire:

    18.25 Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation:
    The agency shares the concern of the Bank of Russia about the savings of state-owned companies in "unfriendly" currencies, but believes that so far no government directives are required in this regard.

    when the West "broke" the reserves of the Russian Federation, in the same "unfriendly countries and currencies, everything was also apparently in order? .... our song is good, start over ...
  5. lance is gone Offline lance is gone
    lance is gone (lance) 4 August 2022 18: 56
    +4
    such conditions no longer exist today, without destroying Nazism in the lair, you will get problems in the future.
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 4 August 2022 19: 04
    +3
    The mistake of the Russian government is that by starting the SVO, it was ahead of the invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the DPR-LPR?

    As a result of the grain deal, Ukraine will receive $1 billion a month. which, with a high degree of probability, will go to pay for loans and purchases of weapons.
    The Russian Federation received a promise (!) to lift sanctions on agricultural products and fertilizers. Firstly, these are only promises so far,
    secondly, in addition to agricultural products and fertilizers, it is necessary to unblock the dandy, insurance, the system of payment transfers,
    in the third - sale under direct contracts or through agricultural enterprises. exchange, etc., etc., and the longer the chain, the easier it breaks.

    The fact that the Russian Federation is striving to complete the NMD with a separate agreement was clear after the Belarusian gatherings of Mr. Medinsky with representatives of Ukrainian nationalists, who, according to media reports, flatly refused to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine and put forward a counter demand for the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian troops from the territory of Ukraine, including the DPR- LPR.
    The desire to complete the NWO with a separate peace remained, and apparently behind-the-scenes bargaining about the conditions.
    Nationalists cannot denazise themselves a priori, against Ukraine's entry into the EU, which is 100% NATO members, the Russian Federation also does not seem to mind, therefore bargaining comes down to fraud about a neutral status and the surrender of all territories occupied during the NWO except Crimea and the DPR -LNR which, after their official recognition, it is no longer possible to hand over to Ukrainian nationalists.
  7. Michael L. Online Michael L.
    Michael L. 4 August 2022 19: 19
    +2
    The Author's reasoning is not devoid of logic, the position of the leadership of the Russian Federation is blurred, and G. Schroeder's statements are doubtful.
    In practical terms: the leadership of Ukraine acts in the interests of Uncle Sam, and with an eye on the armed opposition.
    Negotiating with non-subjective authorities is a useless exercise!
  8. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 4 August 2022 19: 21
    +1
    In theory, such retired politicians, if they really want peace, should go to Kyiv and look for ways to end the war there
  9. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 4 August 2022 19: 58
    +1
    Schroeder is a small quantity, everyone understands everything.
    And all these negotiations are just dust in the eyes.
    Since officials are already giving out promises with might and main, how and what Russia will do and build in the annexed territories, and the LDNR openly places EDRA officials in leadership positions.
  10. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 5 August 2022 01: 15
    +1
    Firstly, why did Putin meet and talk with the downed Bundes pilot? Does he, Putin, have nothing else to do? Secondly, the Ukraine project, which is severely toxic for Russia, must be closed once and for all. Completely and definitively.
  11. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 August 2022 04: 57
    -1
    Kyiv propaganda regularly writes that negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow are about to begin.
    Dogs chirp. Meanwhile, the NVO caravan is moving on.
  12. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 5 August 2022 05: 31
    +1
    Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Kyiv propaganda regularly writes that negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow are about to begin.

    Wow) And under what conditions (according to Kyiv) is Moscow ready to negotiate?
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 August 2022 06: 16
      -1
      I do not read. Filthy dogs will not say anything interesting. Their job is to sow doubt.
      And I have no doubts. SVO is on its way. And this is good.
  13. vdr5 Offline vdr5
    vdr5 (Elephant) 5 August 2022 15: 06
    -3
    As far as I understand, the Kremlin does not have good scenarios at the moment. To fulfill the tasks declared in February in the 7th month is obviously not enough strength and combat capabilities. Hence these propaganda exhausts like we have not started yet ...))). But it’s also impossible to stop, then you’ll have to explain to the people why tens of thousands of Russian citizens were killed and maimed. Ukraine is ready to fight, the West is ready to support Kyiv with military and economic resources. The capture of Nikolaev and Zaporozhye will not solve anything, Kharkov has already been tried. Moscow will continue its efforts for a peace deal, and the Kremlin does not have the trump cards here. In short, while apparently all parties are counting on the end of the year. Well, an unequivocal victory in Ukraine certainly does not shine for Moscow, Kyiv turned out to be a tough nut to crack.
  14. monarchist Offline monarchist
    monarchist (Foma) 7 August 2022 16: 31
    +1
    dopustima tolko bezgoworoczna kapitulacja banderostanu wsjakie popytki Minska3 eto predatelstwo
    u menja petycja k prezidentuRF Wasze Prewoshoditelstwo Unicztozte wsju 5 kolonnu bezposzczadno kak Stalin
    w1937-1938 w istorii rossji wy budete istinnym spasitelem
  15. Vova Zhelyabov Offline Vova Zhelyabov
    Vova Zhelyabov (Vova Zhelyabov) 8 August 2022 20: 31
    0
    Scholz can shove his praise in one place. The preparations for the export of Russian grain (including freight and insurance) are closely monitored by the Kremlin through binoculars and a razor-sharp ax at the ready in order to instantly cut through the grain corridor to Ukraine in case of an emergency.