Why the American provocation in Taiwan will eventually turn against the United States itself


The scandalous visit of the head of the lower house of the US Congress Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan has undoubtedly become a major international topic. Despite the fact that Beijing threatened to prevent the American plane from entering its airspace without permission, it landed safely in Taipei. What will be the further actions of the Chinese leadership?


Caught


To be honest, the author of the lines was very amused by the millions of angry comments that our compatriots scribbled. Say, "the Chinese dragon turned out to be paper", the Chinese do not know how to fight, Comrade Xi did not help his aircraft carriers, the United States "bent" the Celestial Empire, and so on in the same vein. The comment left on the social network by the respected head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov turned out to be quite typical:

In 15 minutes, let's see who is the "great power": the US or China.

In this regard, I would like to ask a question, what did you all, in fact, expect? That the PRC Air Force will shoot down a plane with a third person in the United States, automatically declaring war on the world's strongest military power? And this against the background of the fact that President Joe Biden stressed that Washington still recognizes the principle of "one China"? That is, because of the uninvited visit of the head of the lower house of the US Congress to Taiwan, which has a problematic legal status, to kill her and everyone on board?

Then you can ask the following logical question to our jingoistic patriots who are thirsty for blood. Why didn’t the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation sink the British destroyer Defender, which violated Russian borders and defiantly entered the territorial waters of Crimea? Did not have time? Why didn’t the Russian Aerospace Forces catch up and sink it from the air? Why didn't Moscow declare war on London? It's different, right?

If you call a spade a spade, Washington simply caught Beijing at its word and took advantage of the opportunity, knowing full well that it is not yet ready for a real war with the United States and the AUKUS bloc.

At first, and China, and all other advanced powers are critically dependent on the supply of microprocessors, which are manufactured in Taiwan. About what is the share of Taipei in the world microelectronics market and how China, the USA, the EU, South Korea, India and Japan are now hastily producing its import substitution, we told previously. In the event of large-scale hostilities, Taiwanese industry is highly likely to be destroyed, unintentionally or on purpose. The process of import substitution of microprocessors, which began in 2021 after a drought in Taiwan, may take at least three years.

Secondly, the special operation to return the rebellious island will inevitably lead to the imposition of anti-Chinese sanctions and the blocking of the Strait of Malacca for Chinese imports and exports, which should bring down all economic China indicators. Strictly speaking, for the sake of this, everything is started. The struggle for the survival of the Celestial Empire, which is critically dependent on maritime trade, will take place precisely on the seas and oceans, for which Beijing is building such a powerful navy. Even now, the PLA Navy has more pennants than the US Navy, but the quality of the American fleet is higher due to the presence of 11-12 aircraft carrier strike groups and the largest Marine Corps in the world.

Немного made fun of one comment in the spirit of "Comrade Xi's aircraft carriers under construction did not help." Yes, those under construction really can’t help. So far, only the light aircraft carriers Liaoning and Shandong are in the ranks of the PLA Navy, which are seriously inferior to the Nimitz in terms of combat capabilities. Equipped with catapults for taking off heavy carrier-based aircraft, the second-generation Chinese aircraft carrier Fujian has just been launched and is still being completed, so it really cannot help Comrade Xi. It is necessary to count only those AUGs that are in service.

Can "Liaoning" and "Shandong" as part of an aircraft carrier strike force today really resist the US Navy's AUG, led by the heavy attack aircraft carrier "Harry Truman", which, after an attack on Taiwan, will block the Malacca Strait for Chinese merchant ships? Doubtful. Especially if the British defiantly send their Queen Elizabeth with escort ships to join the Truman. So to speak, they will demonstrate the unity and determination of the AUKUS allies. If necessary, the power of the Anglo-Saxon aircraft carrier strike force can be increased even more. The PLA Navy is simply not yet ready for war with such an adversary, and he is aware of this.

Thirdly, waiting for the immediate start of a special operation to liberate Taiwan immediately after the landing of the plane with Pelosi in Taipei can only be completely naive and ignorant of military affairs. The thing is a no-brainer.

Despite the fact that all the plans for an amphibious assault on the island, of course, have long been developed by the PLA General Staff, first it is necessary to make a large-scale deployment of troops and fleet. It will take more than one day and even more than one week. Remember how and how long the Russian troops were drawn to the borders of Ukraine. Yes, we have more distance, but still. For a real amphibious operation into Taiwan, mainland China will have to assemble a powerful shock fist, which will not go unnoticed.

So, we came to the conclusion that ridicule against the Chinese comrades and reproaches that they did not dare to unleash a nuclear war with the United States by shooting down a plane with the head of the lower house of the American Congress are simply inappropriate and stupid.

Pivot to the West?


Knowing the real state of affairs, the White House simply deftly caught Beijing on the word, exposing Xi Jinping as a "talker". On the eve of the upcoming elections, this could have a very serious impact on the domestic political agenda of the PRC. Now the Chinese leadership is faced with a choice - either to respond harshly, saving face, or to wipe themselves and bend before Uncle Sam.

Let's hope that Beijing still chooses the path of fighting for its national sovereignty, as this gives us a good chance to win. Until now, the PRC has adhered to a conditionally friendly neutrality towards Russia in its showdown with the collective West. In words, the Chinese supported us, but in reality they didn’t help us much, taking advantage of the difficult economic situation in order to get maximum preferences for themselves, and buying up natural resources and Soviet Technology on the cheap. They sat and patiently waited whose corpse would float down the river, Russia or the USA.

Now the Americans themselves were slapping the Chinese leadership on the cheeks, publicly making it clear that they, in fact, were also at war with them. We can say that Russia and China are finally in the same boat. Now the Celestial Empire is left to either humiliately “crawl away”, or actually stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia against the collective West.
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  1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 3 August 2022 12: 27
    0
    Why should the PRC get involved in a conflict with the United States in the interests of ... the Russian Federation?
    Xi Jinping is not a talker.
    Anti-Russian sanctions "boomeranged" across the US economy.
    Accordingly: Joe Biden urgently needs a conflict with the PRC in order to switch from himself the intra-American ... "approval".
    With a provocative purpose, he sent N. Pelosi to Taiwan.
    At present, China is not yet ready for a forceful confrontation with the "hegemon"
    And the fact that the Chinese leader did not fall for the American provocation testifies to his statesmanship!
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 3 August 2022 12: 41
      0
      (Mikhail) Don't confuse causes with effects. The widespread US aggression against the Russian Federation is only a consequence of the upcoming confrontation and clash between the US and China. The United States wants to withdraw or destroy Russia in advance, as a strong ally of the PRC in the upcoming confrontation, which is getting aggravated every year and is inevitable, which is what we see. And the conflict can be nuclear, which is not even good for Biden. But these are global political laws and patterns - the leader can be one, the rest are subordinate or in permanent resistance with periods of exacerbation (Iran, North Korea, Cuba ...). China is already ripe for leadership, and the struggle between the two leaders is inevitable .... .
      1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
        Michael L. 3 August 2022 15: 22
        -1
        Speak beautifully.
        If China was ripe for leadership: N. Pelosi was careful not to fly to Taiwan!
  2. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 August 2022 12: 37
    +1
    In this regard, I would like to ask a question, what did you all, in fact, expect? That the PRC Air Force will shoot down a plane with a third person in the United States, automatically declaring war on the world's strongest military power? And this against the background of the fact that President Joe Biden stressed that Washington still recognizes the principle of "one China"? That is, because of the uninvited visit of the head of the lower house of the US Congress to Taiwan, which has a problematic legal status, to kill her and everyone on board?

    Another eulogy at the grave of Chinese power.
    You put accents wrong. In the morning I butt heads with those who do not understand. If China was not going to fight with Taiwan, then there was nothing to whip up hysteria. The statements were that "the PLA will not sit idly by if Pelosi flies to Taiwan." Result? The PLA sits on its hands. Economic methods? Yes, as much as you want. That's how it should have been said from the beginning. In real life, in fact, "the Chinese tiger turned out to be paper."
    By the way, what President Biden and Congress and Uncle Joe said from any shack doesn't make any practical sense. Pelosi in Taiwan said she would not allow the status quo to be changed and Taiwan would not become part of China. And her words were supported by the US Armed Forces.
    What will happen in 15 minutes or in 15 years, ask the Foreteller. I don't make predictions. I'm stating facts.
  3. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 3 August 2022 12: 43
    -1
    Speaking of birds: "really stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia against the collective West"?

    1 hour ago, source: RBC:

    During his visit to Russia, German ex-Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder met with President Vladimir Putin. He spoke about this in an interview with n-tv.
    The start of a special operation by Russia in Ukraine was “the mistake of the Russian government”, mutual concessions are needed to resolve the conflict, and the Kremlin would like to find a way out of the situation through negotiations, says Schroeder.
    1. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 3 August 2022 13: 00
      +2
      chatting, not tossing bags. the fact that the tongue is an organ without bones, everyone knows. but listen to everything they say, thank you: "and a lot of things are written on the fence."
      Here are the words from the article:

      Now the Americans themselves were slapping the Chinese leadership on the cheeks, publicly making it clear that they, in fact, were also at war with them. We can say that Russia and China are finally in the same boat. Now the Celestial Empire is left to either humiliately “crawl away”, or actually stand shoulder to shoulder with Russia against the collective West.

      - for me it is so well written
      1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
        Michael L. 3 August 2022 15: 31
        -1
        So Xi Jinping is a "fence" talker, Gerhard Schroeder is also?
        I don’t argue: “a lot of things are written on the fence” - as in the comments ... ;-(
  4. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 3 August 2022 12: 50
    +4
    Now the Chinese leadership is faced with a choice, either to respond harshly, saving face, or to wipe themselves and bend before Uncle Sam.

    That will bend - there is no doubt. Perhaps not right now, but after the next step in putting pressure on China. For example, there will be information about the massive supply of weapons to Taiwan. Or reports in the world press about plans to establish a US military base (bases) in Taiwan. And the preparatory steps for these events will begin. Moreover, the deadlines are just about, soon and almost today.

    At the same time, a carrot will be secretly offered - the surrender of Taiwan to China for certain steps in its foreign policy. After the deal, the pressure on China will disappear and the US will adopt a very peaceful policy. Which will make possible the rapid unification of both Chinas. Peaceful. Everyone will breathe a sigh of relief. The war has not started. Pelosi will be given the Nobel Peace Prize (this is not certain).

    Guess who will be affected by the change in China's foreign policy.
    But we will still end up with a victory and the liberation of the entire territory of the former Ukraine. And the loss of illusions about China, BRICS and other allies like Syria and Venezuela is a small price to pay. Moreover, all smart people now know the value of these "allies".

    Why does the US strengthen its enemy, its main rival?
    And then, to make a split between Russia and China. Without reliance on Russia, China is not dangerous for the United States. He will build his aircraft carriers for many more years, fantasizing about future victories.
  5. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 3 August 2022 13: 47
    +2
    So, we came to the conclusion that ridicule against the Chinese comrades and reproaches that they did not dare to unleash a nuclear war with the United States by shooting down a plane with the head of the lower house of the American Congress are simply inappropriate and stupid

    Author!

    It was foolish for China to line up tanks on the beach "for sunbathing."
    It first.

    Secondly, the Chinese comrades have never been and never will be comrades of the Russians, and if they are ridiculous in their threats: “Like sch-a-a-az ladies!”, Then why not laugh at them when they “didn’t give” ?

    Thirdly, it is even more stupid to argue for everyone with your personal narcissism: "... we have come to the conclusion ...".
  6. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 3 August 2022 13: 49
    0
    In the end, everything turned out the best way possible ... for Russia. The Americans made a completely thoughtless, even insane step and will regret it after a short time. The Chinese leadership is unlikely to have doubts whether it is necessary to support the Russian Federation
  7. IgorNikolaevich Offline IgorNikolaevich
    IgorNikolaevich (Igor) 3 August 2022 15: 19
    +1
    It seems that the article was written by Arrest. Any defeat can be represented as a victory and a victory as a defeat.
  8. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 3 August 2022 15: 49
    -2
    The media are demanding bloodshed ... and now you have to write big explanations why China did not do what the media wanted ...
    The Chinese are slowly leading the party, not promising anything definite .... and they have considerable experience in "near-world" accession, why hurry?

    While it is written right next to it, sanctions on "Taiwan apples". After the Polish 8 years have passed for us, the cautious but businesslike Chinese have 3 times more to join, 25 years IMHO ...
    1. Odessa Greek Offline Odessa Greek
      Odessa Greek (Greek) 5 August 2022 00: 15
      0
      Serge, in all the comments on various articles on this resource on the topic of China's "reaction", you constantly "insert" the phrase about 8 years of sanctions on Polish apples and about the beginning of sanctions on Taiwanese apples (oranges), just funny. Is this a new chant, or are you a little tired of "work"?)
  9. voland_1 Offline voland_1
    voland_1 (Vladimir) 3 August 2022 21: 49
    0
    In this regard, I would like to ask a question, what did you all, in fact, expect? That the PRC Air Force will shoot down a plane with a third person in the United States, automatically declaring war on the world's strongest military power? And this against the background of the fact that President Joe Biden stressed that Washington still recognizes the principle of "one China"? That is, because of the uninvited visit of the head of the lower house of the US Congress to Taiwan, which has a problematic legal status, to kill her and everyone on board?

    A foreign plane without permission crossed RECOGNIZED!! the border of another state. The border troops at least had the right to land it at another airfield (in case of disobedience, shoot it down), arrest the crew and passengers for violating the state border. And then conduct a judicial investigation and punish in accordance with applicable law.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 4 August 2022 06: 33
      +2
      International laws are written by America, not for America.
  10. Ignatov Oleg Georgievich (Oleg) 3 August 2022 22: 18
    0
    It is strange from this author to "suddenly" see a balanced approach to the situation.
    So all is not lost and there is hope
  11. GIS Offline GIS
    GIS (Ildus) 4 August 2022 10: 40
    0
    Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
    Guess who will be affected by the change in China's foreign policy.
    But we will still end up with a victory and the liberation of the entire territory of the former Ukraine. And the loss of illusions about China, BRICS and other allies like Syria and Venezuela is a small price to pay. Moreover, all smart people now know the value of these "allies".

    Why does the US strengthen its enemy, its main rival?
    And then, to make a split between Russia and China. Without reliance on Russia, China is not dangerous for the United States. He will build his aircraft carriers for many more years, fantasizing about future victories.

    I support your line of thought.
    and here

    Without relying on Russia, China is not dangerous for the US

    Does China understand this? and what if the Russian Federation does not, how is it bent - does China understand interestingly?
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 4 August 2022 13: 56
      +2
      If China lives by American rules, no one will touch it. Until a certain time. The PRC is in no hurry, and if it receives a carrot in the form of Taiwan from the United States, it will even think that its strategy is the right one.
      Well, then, when the United States cuts China's capabilities and takes off the seventh skin, it will be too late.
      1. GIS Offline GIS
        GIS (Ildus) 4 August 2022 16: 07
        0
        So I'm thinking about the same thing - do the Chinese understand this or do they want "both a fish and a Christmas tree"?
        1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 August 2022 06: 27
          -1
          If you manage to push Russia and the United States head-on, then China will be able to get everything.

          This is not about what exactly China will push, but about an advantageous position - to stand outside the conflict between Russia and the United States. Basically it can work. Especially when many are sure that China will fight with Russia against the United States. Will not. He may even promise, and in the event of a real conflict, he will step aside.

          But in the US, smart people are in power (don't look at Biden), and we have a very cautious Putin. Therefore, I hope that in the near future there will be no nuclear war.
  12. Remigiusz Offline Remigiusz
    Remigiusz (Remigiusz) 5 August 2022 11: 33
    0
    A może taki scenariusz?
    https://www.naturalnews.com/2022-08-04-analysis-why-china-loses-any-escalation-involving-taiwan-us-navy.html

    Niezwykle uttrudni to fact (obronę, przypisek mój) że armia amerykańska, na rozkaz zdradzieckiego Bidena, wysłała na Ukrainę zdecydowaną większość broni przeciwpancernej, artyleryjskiej i innych śjrodków.