What markers indicate the real readiness of the United States and China for a war over Taiwan
The main international intrigue of recent days is whether Pelosi's "grandmother" will fly to Taiwan or not, and how Beijing will react to this. The PLA Navy has already begun exercises in the Taiwan Strait, there is a large-scale transfer of armored vehicles to the coast. Both active Chinese aircraft carriers with escort ships entered the South China Sea. Local residents are encouraged to donate blood. All this is very similar to the preparation of the PRC for a war to return Taiwan to its “home harbor”.
Yes, what is happening now in China really resembles what happened in Russia for several months before the start of a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. However, let us recall that exactly the same thing happened in the spring of 2021, but then everything “worked out”, Russian troops and warships returned to their places of permanent deployment and base. What can be considered the most accurate “marker”, indicating the real readiness of all parties for a real war, and not its imitation?
A special military operation to retake Taiwan, if it does take place, will probably be the largest amphibious operation in history. The recalcitrant island, captured in 1949 by the "separatists", will first be "ironed" with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as aircraft, for a long time and with enthusiasm, destroying the military infrastructure of Taipei and grinding its armed forces. Then the Eastern Fleet of the PLA Navy will take over. Under the cover of aviation and warships, the minesweepers will have to clear the approaches to the coast from mines in order to ensure a safe landing.
It is obvious that Beijing will not step on someone else's rake and act with "small forces", unjustifiably dragging out the matter. The operation will involve both specialized landing ships at the initial stage, as well as civilian ones, which were built according to dual-use projects and can be mobilized for the needs of the fleet. The Chinese will attack immediately and powerfully in order to quickly achieve the desired result.
Will the Americans fight for Taiwan? No, they will not do. They will limit themselves to preloading Taipei with weapons to make the price of Beijing's victory as high as possible. Will everything end with the capitulation of the "separate" regime? No. It is after the fall of Taipei that all the fun begins.
Immediately after the start of the Chinese special operation, the United States and its accomplices will impose tough sanctions against China, as was done earlier against Russia for Ukraine. The goal is gradual economic strangulation of the Celestial Empire, the reduction of its industrial and scientific and technical potential. The next logical step on the part of Washington is to block the Malacca Strait for Chinese ships. And this is precisely what will be the main point of bifurcation.
The strategic importance of the Strait of Malacca for the world economy in general and China in particular cannot be overestimated. This is a strait between the Malay Peninsula and the island of Sumatra, separating the Pacific and Indian oceans. During the year, about 60% of world trade and 25% of all oil transported from the Middle East to Southeast Asia passes through it. China is critically dependent on the Strait of Malacca for the supply of hydrocarbons and other raw materials, as well as for the export of its products. This is the point of a possible clash of interests between India and China, as well as the Celestial Empire and the entire recently created Anglo-Saxon military bloc AUKUS.
It is quite enough to block the AUG Strait of the US Navy, and that's all, try to pass your tankers without the consent of the Americans. Undoubtedly, the British will gladly participate in this ignoble deed by sending their “Queen Elizabeth” with a warrant to the Malacca Strait. The Australians will also help in any way they can in organizing a naval blockade of China.
As a matter of fact, this is the answer why Beijing is building all these "unnecessary" aircraft carriers. Yes, they may not be needed for the war for Taiwan. There will be enough coastal aviation aircraft. But what will you do when the strategically important Strait of Malacca is blocked by the carrier strike force (AUS) AUKUS? In a good way, the Anglo-Saxons will not leave, and this bottleneck will have to be “uncorked” only by force. Whatever our esteemed readers imagine, who in any way “flash” better than American, British, Indian and Chinese admirals in naval affairs, only another AUG (AUS) can resist. That is why Beijing is investing such funds in its military shipbuilding program.
Based on the foregoing, the deployment of naval forces in the Strait of Malacca can be considered an important "marker" of the readiness of the parties for a real armed conflict. If the Chinese AUG (AUS) or the Anglo-Saxon start some preparatory actions in the specified area, you should at least be wary. This is no accident.
Note that China, knowing about its critical dependence on the Malacca bottleneck, has long dreamed of laying an alternative shipping channel called Kra. The Thai Canal, or the Kra Canal, is to pass through southern Thailand. Its length can be from 50 to 100 kilometers, and its width and depth can make it possible to navigate the largest vessels. So far, the project has been held back due to high cost and complexity. However, if activation on it begins in the near future, it means that the matter smells like kerosene.
- Author: Sergey Marzhetsky