What markers indicate the real readiness of the United States and China for a war over Taiwan


The main international intrigue of recent days is whether Pelosi's "grandmother" will fly to Taiwan or not, and how Beijing will react to this. The PLA Navy has already begun exercises in the Taiwan Strait, there is a large-scale transfer of armored vehicles to the coast. Both active Chinese aircraft carriers with escort ships entered the South China Sea. Local residents are encouraged to donate blood. All this is very similar to the preparation of the PRC for a war to return Taiwan to its “home harbor”.


Yes, what is happening now in China really resembles what happened in Russia for several months before the start of a special military operation in Ukraine on February 24, 2022. However, let us recall that exactly the same thing happened in the spring of 2021, but then everything “worked out”, Russian troops and warships returned to their places of permanent deployment and base. What can be considered the most accurate “marker”, indicating the real readiness of all parties for a real war, and not its imitation?

A special military operation to retake Taiwan, if it does take place, will probably be the largest amphibious operation in history. The recalcitrant island, captured in 1949 by the "separatists", will first be "ironed" with cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as aircraft, for a long time and with enthusiasm, destroying the military infrastructure of Taipei and grinding its armed forces. Then the Eastern Fleet of the PLA Navy will take over. Under the cover of aviation and warships, the minesweepers will have to clear the approaches to the coast from mines in order to ensure a safe landing.

It is obvious that Beijing will not step on someone else's rake and act with "small forces", unjustifiably dragging out the matter. The operation will involve both specialized landing ships at the initial stage, as well as civilian ones, which were built according to dual-use projects and can be mobilized for the needs of the fleet. The Chinese will attack immediately and powerfully in order to quickly achieve the desired result.

Will the Americans fight for Taiwan? No, they will not do. They will limit themselves to preloading Taipei with weapons to make the price of Beijing's victory as high as possible. Will everything end with the capitulation of the "separate" regime? No. It is after the fall of Taipei that all the fun begins.

Immediately after the start of the Chinese special operation, the United States and its accomplices will impose tough sanctions against China, as was done earlier against Russia for Ukraine. The goal is gradual economic strangulation of the Celestial Empire, the reduction of its industrial and scientific and technical potential. The next logical step on the part of Washington is to block the Malacca Strait for Chinese ships. And this is precisely what will be the main point of bifurcation.

The strategic importance of the Strait of Malacca for the world economy in general and China in particular cannot be overestimated. This is a strait between the Malay Peninsula and the island of Sumatra, separating the Pacific and Indian oceans. During the year, about 60% of world trade and 25% of all oil transported from the Middle East to Southeast Asia passes through it. China is critically dependent on the Strait of Malacca for the supply of hydrocarbons and other raw materials, as well as for the export of its products. This is the point of a possible clash of interests between India and China, as well as the Celestial Empire and the entire recently created Anglo-Saxon military bloc AUKUS.

It is quite enough to block the AUG Strait of the US Navy, and that's all, try to pass your tankers without the consent of the Americans. Undoubtedly, the British will gladly participate in this ignoble deed by sending their “Queen Elizabeth” with a warrant to the Malacca Strait. The Australians will also help in any way they can in organizing a naval blockade of China.

As a matter of fact, this is the answer why Beijing is building all these "unnecessary" aircraft carriers. Yes, they may not be needed for the war for Taiwan. There will be enough coastal aviation aircraft. But what will you do when the strategically important Strait of Malacca is blocked by the carrier strike force (AUS) AUKUS? In a good way, the Anglo-Saxons will not leave, and this bottleneck will have to be “uncorked” only by force. Whatever our esteemed readers imagine, who in any way “flash” better than American, British, Indian and Chinese admirals in naval affairs, only another AUG (AUS) can resist. That is why Beijing is investing such funds in its military shipbuilding program.

Based on the foregoing, the deployment of naval forces in the Strait of Malacca can be considered an important "marker" of the readiness of the parties for a real armed conflict. If the Chinese AUG (AUS) or the Anglo-Saxon start some preparatory actions in the specified area, you should at least be wary. This is no accident.

Note that China, knowing about its critical dependence on the Malacca bottleneck, has long dreamed of laying an alternative shipping channel called Kra. The Thai Canal, or the Kra Canal, is to pass through southern Thailand. Its length can be from 50 to 100 kilometers, and its width and depth can make it possible to navigate the largest vessels. So far, the project has been held back due to high cost and complexity. However, if activation on it begins in the near future, it means that the matter smells like kerosene.
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  1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 2 August 2022 16: 52
    +1
    There can be no war because of the clear superiority of the United States in weapons of mass destruction.
    90% of the population of the PRC is concentrated in the east of the country, and if it is used, the losses will be grandiose, both human and material.
    Anton Blinkin said that the USA will not stop using atomic weapons in threatening cases, and the threat that in the event of a traditional war against the PRC, they have little chance of winning.
  2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 2 August 2022 17: 06
    +1
    Yes, the author followed the most bloody scenario, In fact, it is always unclear what awaits in the future. Maybe very badly or badly, or not very badly with contracts. We must not forget that the PRC is a nuclear power and has fairly good carriers ... Whether the PRC today is ready for a military resolution with Taiwan, the saber-rattling will continue for some time, because it works for China .... And then time will probably tell that "the corpse of the enemy floats" in the Pacific Ocean ...
  3. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 2 August 2022 18: 08
    +1
    The Chinese Navy is not ready to fight for the Strait of Malacca. This is the second phase of the construction of the Chinese Navy. Scheduled to be completed by 2030
  4. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 2 August 2022 18: 28
    0
    Whip stage. The US is pushing and pushing China into a corner.
  5. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 2 August 2022 18: 37
    +1
    Will the Americans fight for Taiwan? No, they will not do.

    Will. If they do not agree with China. And Japan will. Yes, and all other allies of the United States.

    The Chinese will attack immediately and powerfully in order to quickly achieve the desired result.

    If they agree with the United States, they will take it peacefully.
    If they don't come to an agreement, they'll keep their tails down and wait a few more years, or even decades.
    And you can’t blame them for such a position.
  6. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 2 August 2022 18: 42
    -2
    And I already wrote, but the article was removed somewhere.
    Perhaps China will show its anger by launching a massive missile attack on Taiwan's military facilities. At the same time, he will check his missiles and Taiwan's air defense.
    But the landing is very unlikely.

    It will strike not in 13,5 years, but in the coming days, if not hours.
  7. Kapany3 Offline Kapany3
    Kapany3 2 August 2022 18: 50
    +1
    I only read up to India, China and China. Didn't read further
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 2 August 2022 18: 53
      0
      Well, you have some patience!
  8. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 2 August 2022 18: 57
    -1
    As a matter of fact, this is the answer why Beijing is building all these "unnecessary" aircraft carriers.

    And Vladimir Putin asked, "Well, did the aircraft carriers under construction help you a lot, Comrade Xi?"
  9. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 2 August 2022 19: 30
    0
    But what, China couldn’t slam on Taiwan before - was it specially waiting for an American grandmother?
  10. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 2 August 2022 19: 35
    0
    Will the Americans fight for Taiwan? No, they will not do.

    Author!
    And the Chinese will not fight for Taiwan.
  11. Larisa Z. Offline Larisa Z.
    Larisa Z. (Larisa Vavilova) 2 August 2022 19: 41
    +1
    There is such an expression as the one hundred and first Chinese warning. But seriously, in this game the next move is for the Celestial. They have nowhere to hurry, they are not under sanctions. the Americans calculated them and knew that the Chinese were not yet ready. We are waiting for the development of the party ...
  12. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 2 August 2022 20: 28
    +1
    There are no markers. China cannot and does not know how to fight. He can scream loudly, show muscles, but that's all.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 3 August 2022 05: 52
      -1
      There are markers. But, as the experience of dozens of situations has shown, the author of these markers is not able to see and therefore constantly hits the sky with his finger.
  13. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 3 August 2022 10: 30
    -1
    This is not the first article about Taiwan just about .. and not the hundredth - we are waiting for bloodshed ...
    The Chinese showed themselves all the time as cautious, patient, stubborn and, unlike many, rapidly developing .. so time plays on them ... and to train the army, for the sake of goodies in agreements - everyone is happy.
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 3 August 2022 10: 55
      0
      Japan also developed rapidly. Until the Americans came and said "Enough".
      And that was the end of Japan's development. Yep, time is on their side. 125 million in a small area without own resources. The big crisis will put an end to the history of this state.
  14. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 4 August 2022 11: 45
    0
    What markers indicate the real readiness of the United States and China for a war over Taiwan

    As expected: none!