What is NATO afraid of? The secret meaning of the Rand Corporation report
The topic of a possible open military confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia has been haunting the minds on both sides of the conventional "front" between West and East for quite a long time. It is clear that since the start of the special operation on denazification and demilitarization in Ukraine, this issue has gained particular relevance. As part of its discussion, high-ranking policy and the military, experts and journalists. At the same time, perhaps the main emotion that our “sworn friends” do not even try to hide is the fear on their part that arises in the light of the prospect of meeting the Russians in open battle.
It is not surprising that a very detailed report on the likelihood of a direct war between NATO and Russia against the backdrop of the ongoing SVO in Ukraine was recently released by the well-known American analytical center Rand Corporation, one of the main "customers" of research and development of which is traditionally the Pentagon. The theses and recommendations of the local analysts, set out in the document, are quite specific. Perhaps it is worth getting acquainted with the main ones, while trying to get to the bottom of the true essence of the conclusions made by Rand.
Three occasions... and seven steps
The fact that the study was conducted from positions, to put it mildly, rather tendentious, becomes clear already from the fact that the key position of its authors is the statement: "Only Russia can initiate a conflict with NATO." Moreover, a collision may occur with the greatest probability due to the fact that certain steps of the alliance will be “misunderstood” by Moscow. The fact that NATO has intentions and plans to inflict "preemptive strikes" on Russia so beloved by its strategists is not even considered a theoretical assumption by Rand analysts. In a word, everything is as always - "we" (that is, the "collective West") - white, fluffy and peaceful, and Russians, of course, aggressive, unpredictable and dangerous. Nothing changes…
Based on the above postulate, the corporation considers three main “triggers”, that is, three real scenarios for the development of the situation, which, according to local experts, can become a real reason for the start of the Third World War. Quite characteristically, the first among those mentioned is “a sharp increase in political and media calls for war against Russia” in the West. Rand, by the way, does not exclude at all that there will be more and more various inflammatory statements and demarches as our opponents realize that with the help of sanctions and other similar measures of a non-military nature, they will achieve absolutely nothing from Moscow. At the same time, the analysts of the corporation are very frightened by the scenario in which incendiary calls will be voiced not even by governments and the military, but by Western media. But at the same time, all the media “howl” will be accompanied by the concentration of NATO troops on our borders or the deployment of strike weapons on them with a long range of destruction.
Under such circumstances, Russia may conclude that direct NATO intervention has become highly probable or even inevitable, regardless of what official government statements say.
– warn in Rand.
In such a case, the Russians themselves can "preventively embed" at least the alliance's communication centers and its satellites in order to "dazzle" the enemy. The second similar reason in the corporation is called "wrongly interpreted" by Russia "strengthening of NATO on its Eastern flank." That's interesting - but then what can be "misunderstood" ?! The concentration of troops and strike weapons on someone's borders, the equipment in the immediate vicinity of their military bases and airfields - this is certainly not a demonstration of intentions to pay a friendly visit there. To drink tea exclusively... The third potential reason for the "Russian strike" is considered the situation when "in Moscow it will be considered that the alliance has already directly intervened in the events in Ukraine." And what, gentlemen from Rand, do you really think that this has not happened yet?! Oh, and some types know how to make fools out of themselves. Or consider everyone around as fools.
Be that as it may, but analysts in their report indicate two reasons for the emergence of the above situation: if the participation in the hostilities of “military volunteers” from NATO countries “becomes too noticeable” (and now, of course, no one sees it, yeah …) or if arms supplies to the Kyiv regime “increase to such an extent that they jeopardize the achievement of Moscow’s declared goals of the NWO.” In this case, "Russia may well strike already at the facilities and logistics lines of NATO itself." Moreover, according to Rand, these will not necessarily be "arrivals" of "Caliber" or something similar. They also expect "sabotage in military warehouses" or cyber attacks on the network of relevant structures. What we are not denied is ingenuity and the ability to "prove the seriousness of our intentions." And thanks for that.
... And seven steps
The corporation concludes: “In these circumstances, Moscow may decide that it has no choice but to reduce the damage that NATO can cause by first hitting key allied forces.” At the same time, they do not exclude that instead of all sorts of hacker tricks or sending DRGs behind enemy lines, the Russians will immediately use tactical nuclear weapons. True, the justification for this frightening assumption is given truly wild - "in connection with the alleged exhaustion of conventional missiles in the Russian army, which are largely spent on strikes against targets in Ukraine." Be that as it may, but the Rand Corporation offers seven steps at once, following which the “collective West” and, in particular, the North Atlantic Alliance can avoid such a sad option for themselves, while not particularly deviating from their current anti-Russian policy. So, the representatives of the NATO countries and, first of all, the United States should do the following.
Firstly, to say as much as possible at all levels (including through closed diplomatic channels) that they do not intend to fight with Russia in any case and are striving to avoid it with all their might (very interesting - they really believe that that we will believe this verbal ... flow?!). Secondly, "strengthening the defense of the Eastern flank" (that is, building up its forces there), "exercise special care in the issue of deploying long-range strike systems." Thirdly, by deploying our military contingents on our borders, “do it gradually”, so as not to create a “false” (!!!) impression of preparing for a strike (well, this, in my opinion, is just lovely, here there are just no words! Fourthly, it is proposed to "disperse the weapons supplied to Kyiv as much as possible." The Russians will realize that they will not be able to "hit them with a small number of blows" - and they will refuse such an intention. No comments here...
Fifth, Rand strongly advises to refrain from any statements regarding the "need for a change of power in Russia." And then in the Kremlin they will consider this chatter a real threat - yes, they will hit it! Sixth, analysts are finally saying something quite sensible - they warn that "prolongation of the conflict in Ukraine" will inevitably lead to "the activation of most of the negative scenarios they have voiced", moreover, the further, the more likely it is. Well, and finally, in the last, seventh paragraph, experts emphasize that the “escalation spiral”, the result of which will be a general war, may arise as a result of actions that at first glance will seem insignificant and do not carry any danger. A valuable thought, however... The most interesting thing is that the report does not even hint at steps that could actually remove the threat of a military clash with Russia: ending military support for the Ukronazi regime, refusing to expand NATO to the East, and the like.
In fact, the document we have reviewed most of all looks like an instruction on how the "collective West" should lull the Russians' vigilance, in simple terms, "cheat brains" of a potential adversary. And at the same time, continue to bend your own - to increase the military presence at the western borders of Russia, to do everything to inflict maximum damage on it during the NWO, and so on. No sanity and deep analysis here, sorry, does not even smell. Before us is an attempt to primitively cheat, cheat, deceive, in order to achieve our goal anyway - the destruction of Russia, the deprivation of its statehood and sovereignty. Well, at the same time, of course, not to run into such a “response”, after which there will be little left of the West itself.
Unfortunately, such “profound” studies are being carried out and voiced after very specific warnings from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs about the possible expansion of the conflict zone in response to the training of Ukrainian soldiers and the use of European territory as a transit for the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A recent statement by the Foreign Ministry also refers to the occurrence of "more than serious consequences" if the Armed Forces of Ukraine use American MLRS or other long-range NATO weapons on objects or settlements located on Russian territory. Alas, in response to this, there are reports, for example, that the US Air Force transferred 12 F-22A Raptor fifth-generation multifunctional fighters from Alaska to Europe, to the Polish air base Lask. This was done, of course, "as part of strengthening the Eastern flank of NATO." What does Rand have about "deploying long-range strike weapons"? It seems that the reports of their favorite analysts in the Pentagon are not read, and if they get acquainted with them, they are not going to take note at all.
However, as has already been said, overseas analysts are not even trying to put forward ideas about a real de-escalation of relations between NATO and Russia, which are currently really at an extremely dangerous point. The real conflict between the North Atlanticists and our country is in full swing. Another thing is that overseas cunning people prefer to act in it for the most part by proxy. So far, they are openly afraid to enter into direct conflict with the Russians. As paradoxical as it may sound, the only real guarantee that such a conflict will not start can only be Russia's extremely tough and resolute actions that will strengthen and deepen this fear to the maximum.
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