What is NATO afraid of? The secret meaning of the Rand Corporation report


The topic of a possible open military confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia has been haunting the minds on both sides of the conventional "front" between West and East for quite a long time. It is clear that since the start of the special operation on denazification and demilitarization in Ukraine, this issue has gained particular relevance. As part of its discussion, high-ranking policy and the military, experts and journalists. At the same time, perhaps the main emotion that our “sworn friends” do not even try to hide is the fear on their part that arises in the light of the prospect of meeting the Russians in open battle.


It is not surprising that a very detailed report on the likelihood of a direct war between NATO and Russia against the backdrop of the ongoing SVO in Ukraine was recently released by the well-known American analytical center Rand Corporation, one of the main "customers" of research and development of which is traditionally the Pentagon. The theses and recommendations of the local analysts, set out in the document, are quite specific. Perhaps it is worth getting acquainted with the main ones, while trying to get to the bottom of the true essence of the conclusions made by Rand.

Three occasions... and seven steps


The fact that the study was conducted from positions, to put it mildly, rather tendentious, becomes clear already from the fact that the key position of its authors is the statement: "Only Russia can initiate a conflict with NATO." Moreover, a collision may occur with the greatest probability due to the fact that certain steps of the alliance will be “misunderstood” by Moscow. The fact that NATO has intentions and plans to inflict "preemptive strikes" on Russia so beloved by its strategists is not even considered a theoretical assumption by Rand analysts. In a word, everything is as always - "we" (that is, the "collective West") - white, fluffy and peaceful, and Russians, of course, aggressive, unpredictable and dangerous. Nothing changes…

Based on the above postulate, the corporation considers three main “triggers”, that is, three real scenarios for the development of the situation, which, according to local experts, can become a real reason for the start of the Third World War. Quite characteristically, the first among those mentioned is “a sharp increase in political and media calls for war against Russia” in the West. Rand, by the way, does not exclude at all that there will be more and more various inflammatory statements and demarches as our opponents realize that with the help of sanctions and other similar measures of a non-military nature, they will achieve absolutely nothing from Moscow. At the same time, the analysts of the corporation are very frightened by the scenario in which incendiary calls will be voiced not even by governments and the military, but by Western media. But at the same time, all the media “howl” will be accompanied by the concentration of NATO troops on our borders or the deployment of strike weapons on them with a long range of destruction.

Under such circumstances, Russia may conclude that direct NATO intervention has become highly probable or even inevitable, regardless of what official government statements say.

– warn in Rand.

In such a case, the Russians themselves can "preventively embed" at least the alliance's communication centers and its satellites in order to "dazzle" the enemy. The second similar reason in the corporation is called "wrongly interpreted" by Russia "strengthening of NATO on its Eastern flank." That's interesting - but then what can be "misunderstood" ?! The concentration of troops and strike weapons on someone's borders, the equipment in the immediate vicinity of their military bases and airfields - this is certainly not a demonstration of intentions to pay a friendly visit there. To drink tea exclusively... The third potential reason for the "Russian strike" is considered the situation when "in Moscow it will be considered that the alliance has already directly intervened in the events in Ukraine." And what, gentlemen from Rand, do you really think that this has not happened yet?! Oh, and some types know how to make fools out of themselves. Or consider everyone around as fools.

Be that as it may, but analysts in their report indicate two reasons for the emergence of the above situation: if the participation in the hostilities of “military volunteers” from NATO countries “becomes too noticeable” (and now, of course, no one sees it, yeah …) or if arms supplies to the Kyiv regime “increase to such an extent that they jeopardize the achievement of Moscow’s declared goals of the NWO.” In this case, "Russia may well strike already at the facilities and logistics lines of NATO itself." Moreover, according to Rand, these will not necessarily be "arrivals" of "Caliber" or something similar. They also expect "sabotage in military warehouses" or cyber attacks on the network of relevant structures. What we are not denied is ingenuity and the ability to "prove the seriousness of our intentions." And thanks for that.

... And seven steps


The corporation concludes: “In these circumstances, Moscow may decide that it has no choice but to reduce the damage that NATO can cause by first hitting key allied forces.” At the same time, they do not exclude that instead of all sorts of hacker tricks or sending DRGs behind enemy lines, the Russians will immediately use tactical nuclear weapons. True, the justification for this frightening assumption is given truly wild - "in connection with the alleged exhaustion of conventional missiles in the Russian army, which are largely spent on strikes against targets in Ukraine." Be that as it may, but the Rand Corporation offers seven steps at once, following which the “collective West” and, in particular, the North Atlantic Alliance can avoid such a sad option for themselves, while not particularly deviating from their current anti-Russian policy. So, the representatives of the NATO countries and, first of all, the United States should do the following.

Firstly, to say as much as possible at all levels (including through closed diplomatic channels) that they do not intend to fight with Russia in any case and are striving to avoid it with all their might (very interesting - they really believe that that we will believe this verbal ... flow?!). Secondly, "strengthening the defense of the Eastern flank" (that is, building up its forces there), "exercise special care in the issue of deploying long-range strike systems." Thirdly, by deploying our military contingents on our borders, “do it gradually”, so as not to create a “false” (!!!) impression of preparing for a strike (well, this, in my opinion, is just lovely, here there are just no words! Fourthly, it is proposed to "disperse the weapons supplied to Kyiv as much as possible." The Russians will realize that they will not be able to "hit them with a small number of blows" - and they will refuse such an intention. No comments here...

Fifth, Rand strongly advises to refrain from any statements regarding the "need for a change of power in Russia." And then in the Kremlin they will consider this chatter a real threat - yes, they will hit it! Sixth, analysts are finally saying something quite sensible - they warn that "prolongation of the conflict in Ukraine" will inevitably lead to "the activation of most of the negative scenarios they have voiced", moreover, the further, the more likely it is. Well, and finally, in the last, seventh paragraph, experts emphasize that the “escalation spiral”, the result of which will be a general war, may arise as a result of actions that at first glance will seem insignificant and do not carry any danger. A valuable thought, however... The most interesting thing is that the report does not even hint at steps that could actually remove the threat of a military clash with Russia: ending military support for the Ukronazi regime, refusing to expand NATO to the East, and the like.

In fact, the document we have reviewed most of all looks like an instruction on how the "collective West" should lull the Russians' vigilance, in simple terms, "cheat brains" of a potential adversary. And at the same time, continue to bend your own - to increase the military presence at the western borders of Russia, to do everything to inflict maximum damage on it during the NWO, and so on. No sanity and deep analysis here, sorry, does not even smell. Before us is an attempt to primitively cheat, cheat, deceive, in order to achieve our goal anyway - the destruction of Russia, the deprivation of its statehood and sovereignty. Well, at the same time, of course, not to run into such a “response”, after which there will be little left of the West itself.

Unfortunately, such “profound” studies are being carried out and voiced after very specific warnings from the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs about the possible expansion of the conflict zone in response to the training of Ukrainian soldiers and the use of European territory as a transit for the supply of weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. A recent statement by the Foreign Ministry also refers to the occurrence of "more than serious consequences" if the Armed Forces of Ukraine use American MLRS or other long-range NATO weapons on objects or settlements located on Russian territory. Alas, in response to this, there are reports, for example, that the US Air Force transferred 12 F-22A Raptor fifth-generation multifunctional fighters from Alaska to Europe, to the Polish air base Lask. This was done, of course, "as part of strengthening the Eastern flank of NATO." What does Rand have about "deploying long-range strike weapons"? It seems that the reports of their favorite analysts in the Pentagon are not read, and if they get acquainted with them, they are not going to take note at all.

However, as has already been said, overseas analysts are not even trying to put forward ideas about a real de-escalation of relations between NATO and Russia, which are currently really at an extremely dangerous point. The real conflict between the North Atlanticists and our country is in full swing. Another thing is that overseas cunning people prefer to act in it for the most part by proxy. So far, they are openly afraid to enter into direct conflict with the Russians. As paradoxical as it may sound, the only real guarantee that such a conflict will not start can only be Russia's extremely tough and resolute actions that will strengthen and deepen this fear to the maximum.
25 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 28 July 2022 08: 37
    0
    In a similar article on VO they write:

    From the report:

    Russia may consider the concentration of large NATO forces on its eastern border as direct NATO intervention in the conflict in Ukraine. In such a situation, Russia may decide that it has no other choice to reduce the damage for itself, except to launch a first strike against the key forces of NATO countries.

    American analysts write that in these cases Russia can use tactical nuclear weapons without delay.

    The article on VO is shorter, but more informative.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 28 July 2022 16: 55
      0
      All NATO's fear of a collision with the RF Armed Forces is based on the fact that NATO is significantly superior in precision weapons, intelligence, logistics and everything at times and the RF Armed Forces will have no choice but to use nuclear weapons. It will not be tactical, because after tactical use, NATO's response with a full-scale annihilating strike is quite possible. Therefore, a collision means a full-scale nuclear war, such realities are frightening. But war is an act of survival through the destruction of the enemy.
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 28 July 2022 08: 48
    0
    There is an opinion among authors and commentators that Russia needs to prepare for a war with NATO and Japan with conventional weapons. When I express my opinion that the war with NATO (Japan) will be nuclear, they hint to me that I am crazy, because we will all be destroyed. They even tried to scare me with the fact that they would put me in jail for such seditious thoughts.
    Meanwhile, there is a military doctrine of Russia where everything is clearly indicated about the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons. But for some reason, the authors and commentators consider their opinion more weighty.
  3. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 28 July 2022 10: 26
    +1
    or if arms supplies to the Kyiv regime “increase to such an extent that they jeopardize the achievement of Moscow’s declared goals of the NWO.” In this case, "Russia may well strike already at the facilities and logistics lines of NATO itself."

    And instead of strikes against NATO countries, can it be better to disassemble the roads on the western borders of Ukraine in order to exclude the supply of NATO weapons?
    And now the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation resemble a boxer who entered the ring with one arm tied to his body. You can't bomb there, you can't hit here! But the enemy strikes when and where he wants without any hesitation. And who can win in such a duel?
    1. Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 28 July 2022 12: 14
      +4
      If we draw an analogy with a boxer, a straitjacket would be more appropriate, and in the opposite corner - instead of one opponent - a line of thugs.
      This boxer will still give most of his fee to his natural enemy - the owner of the ring and the opposing team, since his accountant (CB) serves the same owner.
      On the straitjacket of our boxer and the jerseys of the opposing team, the US label flaunts. On the lapel of our boxer's accountant - too
      Here is the testimony of a participant in the events when this system was still taking shape.
      The author of the article is the former head of the Control Department of the Administration of the President of Russia (from March 1992 to March 1993), a member of the first (elected) Federation Council (from December 1993 to December 1995), Deputy Chairman of the Accounts Chamber of Russia ( from January 1995 to January 2001) Yuri Boldyrev
      https://svpressa.ru/politic/article/341038/

      “Political incapacity comes at a price”
      ... For this, all approaches to power were walled up and concreted, so that no other idea, no other way of life, development and movement into the future, except for the stupid eating away of the heritage of the ancestors, could constitute an alternative to the consistent degradation of the country that has been going on for three decades.
      It remains to ask a naive question: so if we, the people of Russia, paid and continue to pay tribute in one form or another, then this is a tribute for what?
      Obviously: for our resignation, inability to self-organize and consent to the usurpation of power by those who have the opportunity to pass off their obligations to external forces as obligations of the state, that is, our obligations to you.
  4. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 28 July 2022 12: 23
    -1
    The topic of a possible open military confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia excites the minds

    What minds?

    There will be no open clash between NATO (primarily Europeans) and Russia, because the West has a different plan - to destroy Russia from within by dragging the NVO "outside Ukraine" in anticipation of an internal "popular revolt" against the current power in the Kremlin.

    However, it is already obvious that the people in Russia as a whole perceive the NWO as a struggle for their own existence.

    That is, the plan turned out to be "erroneous." In the West, it is necessary to turn on the "back" and negotiate with Moscow how to divide "out of Ukraine." Winter will help Europeans "come to their senses" with these obvious ...
  5. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 28 July 2022 12: 32
    0
    Quote: Krapilin
    In the West, it is necessary to turn on the "back" and negotiate with Moscow how to divide "out of Ukraine."

    And no one will ask the opinion of Russia? Does she want to share?
    In my opinion, Russia's position is clear - it does not want to share with anyone.
    1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
      Krapilin (Victor) 28 July 2022 13: 20
      -2
      And no one will ask the opinion of Russia? Does she want to share?
      In my opinion, Russia's position is clear - it does not want to share with anyone.

      Dear Expert_Analyst_Forecaster!

      It is Russia that does not ask anyone, independently utilizing this very "for Ukraine".
      This is the first.

      Secondly, Mr. Lavrov said more than clearly that the geography of the NWO has changed. And this, for every sane person, is a clear proposal for the Euro-West to divide "out of Ukraine".

      Do you need Galicia?
      Russia certainly doesn’t need it from the word at all ...
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 28 July 2022 13: 40
        +3
        Secondly, Mr. Lavrov said more than clearly that the geography of the NWO has changed. And this, for every sane person, is a clear proposal for the Euro-West to divide "out of Ukraine".

        Yes!? You can be every sane person, but I don’t see any logic here.
        Help me build a logical chain from Lavrov's words to divide the former Ukraine.

        Do you need Galicia?
        Russia certainly doesn’t need it from the word at all ...

        Are you sure you were authorized to speak on behalf of Russia?
        Personally, I really need Galicia.
        Firstly, so that it does not strengthen the West, in particular Poland.
        Secondly, I would place military bases there, missiles that would be directed to Poland and beyond.
        Thirdly, I have a dream. I really want all Galicians to pay a tax for the restoration of Donbass. A little - 10-12 percent, no more.
        1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
          Krapilin (Victor) 28 July 2022 13: 53
          -1
          Yes!? You can be every sane person, but I don’t see any logic here.
          Help me build a logical chain from Lavrov's words to divide the former Ukraine.

          Dear Expert_Analyst_Forecaster!

          So much intelligence is not needed here: after the start of the NMD, no one from the Kremlin spoke about the territories "outside Ukraine", but exclusively about its de-Satanization. It was about the territories of the LPR and the DPR.
          So think about it - maybe you will "see" something after Lavrov's words ...

          Are you sure you were authorized to speak on behalf of Russia?
          Personally, I really need Galicia.
          Firstly, so that it does not strengthen the West, in particular Poland.
          Secondly, I would place military bases there, missiles that would be directed to Poland and beyond.
          Thirdly, I have a dream. I really want all Galicians to pay a tax for the restoration of Donbass. A little - 10-12 percent, no more.

          Dear Expert_Analyst_Forecaster!

          Section " vna ukrainy" leads to the contact of Russia's borders with NATO DIRECTLY.
          What does this mean?
          And this means that there will be no, for example, shelling of the territories of the Russian Federation, which the ukrovermacht allows itself today, already from the territories controlled by Poland, that is, from NATO.
          The absence of a provocative geographic-state laying in the face of "outside Ukraine" automatically changes the entire geopolitical situation in Europe as a whole.
          And why did you decide that we should always be afraid, while they, the Europeans, do not need to be afraid?
          1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 28 July 2022 14: 04
            0
            I have no more questions.
            Not because I received answers, but because I was convinced of your complete incapacity.
            1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
              Krapilin (Victor) 28 July 2022 14: 24
              -1
              Dear Expert_Analyst_Forecaster!

              Thanks for the interview!
              You are a "fascinating" interlocutor...
  6. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
    Krapilin (Victor) 28 July 2022 12: 34
    -2
    What kind of nuclear war with NATO in Europe?
    What for?

    A simultaneous missile-dagger strike on all "hub" gas storages in Europe will be its sunset.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 28 July 2022 17: 12
      0
      NATO reconnaissance and air defense will not allow missile and dagger fire. (the Americans knew the beginning of the secret SVO for several months, when the plans for the SVO were just being born). But it is quite possible to completely close the supply of hydrocarbons (gas, oil, and its products), and this would be an adequately sensitive response to the West on unheard-of sanctions and prohibitions. But this is not heard from the government of the Russian Federation - there can be many answers, which ones are correct?
      1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
        Krapilin (Victor) 28 July 2022 18: 01
        -2
        the Americans knew the beginning of the secret SVO for several months, when the plans for the SVO were just being born

        Dear Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov)!

        If the Americans are so "omniscient", how did they squander Crimea?
        This is the first.
        Secondly - can you cite the facts, but can you say bluntly that the Americans knew the date of the start of the NWO "outside of Ukraine"?

        NATO reconnaissance and air defense will not allow missile and dagger fire.

        Dear Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov)!

        And where does NATO intelligence - and which one exactly - "prevent" Russia's dagger-missile attack on the "main" gas storage facilities of Europe?

        In addition, the "unheard of" sanctions against Russia like a strong boomerang flew back to the Europeans themselves - and it's not winter yet ...
        And the gas must be "closed" at the right time to achieve maximum effect.
        1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 28 July 2022 19: 08
          0
          Remark: Firstly, the Americans handed over Crimea on purpose, because this opened a "Pandora's box" between Russia and Ukraine, which is approved in Ukrainian laws - to return Crimea. And this hostile relationship for a long time, if not forever, was what the Americans and the British were striving for. Second, the facts. Follow the departures of dip. embassies and US citizens from Kyiv, as well as statements by US dignitaries. in advance. Even our V. Zhirinovsky trumpeted in advance about big events in Feral ... Something with the press in bad relations, or with memory ...
          1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
            Krapilin (Victor) 28 July 2022 21: 55
            -1
            Dear Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov)!

            About the "deliberately surrendered Crimea" - that's cool. I have never heard anything more "cool" about this. Being a resident of the Crimea, I am simply delighted with your "analytical expression".

            Yes, only after the "surrender of Crimea" to us - the Wehrmacht's coming out began to shoot at the Donbass ...
            On Ukrainian laws "put with the device" following the results of the March 2014 referendum in Crimea.

            Secondly, hostile relations between, for example, Koreas last for decades - so what?

            And thirdly... For the Americans, Europe is the same economic competitor as, for example, China. And to "overwhelm" such competitors with the efforts of Russia, which is weakened at the same time, is bingo for them.
            "Vna Ukraine" and "Vna Ukrainians" are no one here at all and there is no way to call them.

            And, to paraphrase Professor Preobrazhensky: "God save you - do not read the modern democratic press before dinner...".
            1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 29 July 2022 12: 48
              0
              If you do not understand the problems with Crimea, it is difficult to clarify further. Briefly summarizing. The entry of Crimea into the Russian Federation is already taken steps from a protracted disease that turns into cancerous ones - the surrender of Ukraine to NATO, with weak attempts by the Russian Federation to keep it in its influence, and so at least a piece was snatched off. They lost all of Ukraine, during the previous decades, under the rule of the Russian Federation, "liberals and oligarchs", whose main thing was to steal the wealth of the Russian Federation, and then at least the grass did not grow ... It was during this time that NATO members raked Ukraine under themselves with tales of paradise life under the western wing Independent Ukraine, or rather their management. The strategic actions of the EU, the USA, China and others, are a separate difficult song, here we touch on a small section of the war with Russia by the union of the Anglo-Saxons.
              1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
                Krapilin (Victor) 30 July 2022 11: 20
                0
                Dear Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov)!

                The communists from the USSR "surrendered" not only "for Ukraine", but all the union republics.
                The "attempts" of Russia, as you deigned to put it, are a combination of "the attempts of all its citizens", and not just one government, on which you are trying to shift all the "blame".
                Where were you personally?

                In Crimea, the USSR was not betrayed, but for more than 20 years they resisted the Ukrainization "outside Ukraine" of the peninsula - each personally a Crimean and a Sevastopol resident did his best. It cannot be explained - it must be experienced and felt for decades.
                Generations outside the USSR grew up in Crimea, but in 2014, this youth - 90% - did not "jump like Maidan", but practically without weapons began to block the military units of the "AFU" and "VMS".

                So the problem of "oligarchs" and liberals "is in power in Russia, this is a question for you as well - how was it allowed?
                1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 30 July 2022 13: 23
                  0
                  You are naive in demagogic reasoning. Even a citizen of the "free" United States cannot influence the government in any way, either personally or collectively (here, US citizens decided to enter the Capitol peacefully, so they were imprisoned, and the main instigators were shot right there, and this is in the "most democratic" country). ..Here, the underwater political "Gulf Streams" create weather and influence, and an industry of stupidity works on scientific methods for an ignorant citizen, and he fools around so that he already considers white to be black ...
                  1. Krapilin Offline Krapilin
                    Krapilin (Victor) 30 July 2022 14: 52
                    0
                    Dear Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov)!

                    If the stupidity industry is successfully working for you, then why should you, in principle, worry about what is happening around you and somewhere nearby?
                    They will put another flag in your hands, hang a drum around your neck, indicate the direction of movement, command you to walk - and you, "non-naive non-demagogue", cheerfully and cheerfully set off ...
                    Yes..?..
                    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 4 August 2022 11: 51
                      0
                      (Krapilin) ​​Replica. And what do you know, what is going on in our government and the Kremlin, where the decrees of the President are completely sabotaged, nothing ...
      2. Chukchi farm worker (Chukchi farm worker) 30 July 2022 04: 28
        0
        Not true. In this case, it's just the opposite. At first, the Americans planned everything, and only AFTER, a quote: "the plans for the NWO were born."
        The answer to the West was voiced long ago - decide to attack - war.
  7. Indifferent Offline Indifferent
    Indifferent 28 July 2022 18: 59
    0
    I am not calling anyone to anything. I am simply writing my opinion, which I would express if I were asked, for example, at a meeting in the Security Council of the Russian Federation. I understand that they will not ask and therefore I am writing. I believe that if we carefully prepare, then we may well win a nuclear war with the forces that we have. Their Minutemen are so old they won't fly where they need to. It's like "Axes", much newer, out of a hundred pieces, a dozen flew in, and even those went to the toilets in the airfield area. And they never launched Tridents (rockets) with a full volley from a boat. And whether their mechanics can trim the boat with such a volley, only God knows. It is quite possible not. Or maybe the boat will break. Considering our large territory, and the missile defense forces, severe damage may not occur, and their countries simply will not! Therefore, I would actively promote the idea of ​​a big war. That's when NATA will break down and back down.
    1. Chukchi farm worker (Chukchi farm worker) 30 July 2022 04: 31
      0
      In a nuclear war, cockroaches will win. Or raccoons, as potential revivalists of civilization. But after a couple of million years. By geological standards, this is not much.