The Diplomat: China is more vulnerable than Russia


Taiwan is more important to the interests of both the United States and China than Ukraine, and a dispute over it is more likely to cause a direct military clash, writes international expert Tejun Zhang on the American resource The Diplomat.


The author believes that China today is more vulnerable to possible sanctions from the United States and the European Union. In addition, according to him, China is more integrated into the world the economythan RF.

Under these circumstances, the use of force to return Taiwan to the "homeland" is not an option for China now or in the foreseeable future, as long as there is a large gap between Chinese and American military forces. Beijing understands that China will continue to strengthen both economically and militarily, and time is on China's side.

- notes the author.

This is in direct contrast to the motives of the Russian Federation, Mr. Zhang believes in his article on The Diplomat.

Russia's entry into Ukraine is President Vladimir Putin's attempt to secure his country's "near abroad" by counteracting NATO's eastward expansion. Russia felt the need to react immediately in the face of the possible entry of Ukraine and other countries into NATO; in which case the strategic position of Russia would be much worse. Moscow felt that she had no time to wait

- writes a specialist.

China's strategic priority is still to maintain a peaceful environment conducive to the economic recovery of the Middle Kingdom. The "Chinese dream" of Chinese President Xi Jinping is the transformation of China into the center of East Asia.

This rise of the PRC does not lead to a desire for territorial expansion, but suggests a longer-term historical mission with an emphasis on becoming a true full-fledged superpower. The logic here is: if China could wait hundreds of years to regain its rightful place in the world, why can't it wait another decade?

China is currently the world's largest trading power in terms of both imports and exports. This is largely due to the fact that China trades primarily with the United States and its key allies - eight of the ten largest trading partners are.

In a scenario in which China uses force to reunite with Taiwan, the United States and all American allies would impose heavy sanctions against it, which would be too costly for the Chinese economy.

In addition, the invasion of Taiwan is technically difficult to implement. The island is saturated with American weapons, and there are relatively few places suitable for landing.
  • Photos used: US Department of Defense
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  1. Vladimir_ Voronov (Vladimir) 27 July 2022 10: 57
    +3
    invading Taiwan is technically difficult to implement. The island is saturated with American weapons, and there are relatively few places suitable for landing.

    The author of the article believes that the Chinese have nothing more than kung fu.
    Xi cannot lose face on the eve of the elections, if he promised to take the toughest measures against the aggressor, then he will have to take it, otherwise China is not a pole of power, but just a huckster, and they will begin to "pinch (milk)" wherever he invested (invested) his money and a lot of money.
  2. Pilot Offline Pilot
    Pilot (Pilot) 27 July 2022 17: 27
    +3
    Strange article. The author seems to have rolled his eyes to the sky and squeezed nonsense out of lack of information. That was.
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 27 July 2022 18: 24
    0
    The excitement around Taiwan is determined by the confrontation between the two largest world superpowers, and therefore the consequences can have global consequences, unlike Ukraine.
    China is more vulnerable to possible sanctions from the United States and the European Union, this is a fact. Only their economic integration is holding back the US from starting an economic war against China. The US trade turnover is about $750 billion. and the EU about $850bn. The imposition of sanctions will inflict unacceptable losses not only on China, but will also bring down the US-EU economy, and it is not known how the Russian Federation will behave in this situation.
    Regarding the forging of anti-Chinese military blocs and the use of force, Comrade Xi bluntly said that China does not want war, but it is not afraid of war either.
    China's strategic priority today is the elimination of political, economic and military blocs that pose obstacles to the economic and social development of the PRC and the whole world, but also understand the inevitability of this evil, and therefore are forced to strengthen their armed forces, but are guided by the ancient wisdom of Sun Tzu, who said that he knows how to fight who wins without a fight. He knows how to fight who captures fortresses without a siege. The one who crushes the state without an army knows how to fight. So far, the PRC is succeeding in this, but it is important for the United States to eliminate not so much the economic competitor in the person of the PRC, but to win a new victory over another social system, deprive it of its attractiveness for the rest, and thereby secure itself for the future
  4. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 28 July 2022 16: 53
    0
    This is the answer to many authors and commentators who dream that China will clash with the United States.
    I have been writing since March that China will not be at war with the United States in the near future. And therefore, to expect that it will become easier for us is an unrealizable place.
    And now July is coming to an end. Surely many have forgotten how they puffed with confidence that "now is the most convenient moment for China." Ha ha, girls.
    1. Alexander Bazylev (Alexander Bazylev) 30 July 2022 20: 07
      0
      Vangue? Well, well
      Did you forget about domestic consumption? The number of inhabitants and 80% of the employed population is the key to the stability of the Chinese economy. China cannot be stopped, well, it will not have a positive balance, for some time, and what? But it will be very tight, they do not produce anything, where will they get the goods from?
      China will close all holes.
      This will be the end of the USA, literally
  5. hello Offline hello
    hello (LEO St) 29 July 2022 06: 38
    0
    After all, we are just beginning to live and feel that we have a long way to go to build an impregnable fortress. That's why we say we don't want to fight, but that's until the day we know we have to.
  6. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 29 July 2022 15: 59
    0
    You just need to block all the ways. Both water and air. Half a year will pass and negotiations will begin. Only not with the USA, but with Taiwan. The USA will go to America.
  7. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 29 July 2022 16: 01
    +1
    All at the same time. Blocking all energy resources in the EU and Japan. Blow up a couple of gas carriers and tankers in the ocean. Price to the sky ..... Military companies to Taiwan and Ukraine. Shoot down a couple of US satellites. A couple of aircraft carriers to fish. Submarines with poison torpedoes around the USA .Reset all treasuries on the market.Dollar in a ditch.
  8. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 30 July 2022 22: 57
    0
    quite difficult to predict ..... what China will do