Today's text is a response to our readers who are trying to understand what we are facing in Ukraine and predict when it will all end. People expressed their opinion, I even agree with some, and I will also say my forecast. I do not insist on it, take it as one of the possible options (I estimate the probability at 65%). Forecasts are, by definition, a thankless thing; I prefer not to make them at all. Today is an exception. Rather, this is not even a forecast, but an analysis of the totality of facts, on the basis of which I draw conclusions.
I think all couch strategists have already noticed and military experts agree with them that here in Ukraine we are waging a war not of the 21st century, but of the 20th. Hence the use in the database on both sides of the military scrap sample of the 70-80s of the last century. Yes, and the Western allies of the 404th are in no hurry to supply her with the latest models of military equipment, getting off with Soviet “iron” from the warehouses of the former ATS countries, and their “hardware” of the 21st century model is supplied in piece copies, rather for testing, as it will prove itself in battles with a potential enemy. The only exceptions are unmanned aircraft, radar warfare equipment, as well as the use of the US satellite constellation for reconnaissance and target designation (when aiming ammunition at targets). Of the last three components of this war, we have succeeded only in electronic warfare.
Winston Churchill's famous phrase that generals always prepare only for the last war did not justify itself in our case, since our generals were not even ready for the last war. But I would not be in a hurry to blame them for this, because the conceptual strategic mistake was laid back in the 90s, when we were preparing for a confrontation with the United States, which could only be nuclear, and a big war in Europe, if considered, was only a war with NATO, and it would inevitably have to develop into a nuclear one, and then why do we need conventional weapons? No one then could even imagine that in the 21st century we would have to repeat the classic European war of the 20th century, especially with Ukraine as an adversary. Hence the reduction in the full-time personnel of the Armed Forces to 1 million people, and cuts in funding for officers, and the transition to a contract army, and many other reforms that the army called “stools” after the nickname of the then Minister of Defense Serdyukov-Taburetkin (this husband before the Moscow Region very successfully traded in stools and other furniture). Who would have thought then that in 2022 in Ukraine we would really lack not even tanks and planes, but people, and Putin would have to urgently begin to form a Volunteer Contract Army in order to plug holes at the front.
No one is surprised by the use in the SVO of the main battle tanks of the 60s T-62, their peers of the towed howitzers D-30 and D-20 and other military scrap of the last century. I would especially like to say about the Su-25 attack aircraft. Some part of the expert couch community had a completely wrong opinion that the Russian Aerospace Forces, following the results of the first months of the NWO, did not achieve complete dominance in the air. With all responsibility, I must declare that this is not so. The Russian Aerospace Forces have total, 100% dominance in the air; the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine responds to our 300-500 sorties per day with three to five. These are dry statistics. What is behind it? The fact is that our command deliberately abandoned carpet bombing with high-explosive bombs of high destructive power over the territory of the enemy to the entire strategic depth of the formation of his armed formations. This was done solely with the aim of minimizing losses among the civilian population and preventing the destruction of civilian infrastructure.
Therefore, throughout the entire strategic depth of Ukraine, the RF Armed Forces are working selectively, exclusively on military targets and recognized as such, and only high-precision sea, land and air-based missile weapons. Yes, it's more expensive, but it's our conscious choice. Moreover, the object air defense systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were not suppressed by the first missile strike, and we do not intend to sacrifice our long-range bomber aviation strategists for this. Therefore, the lion's share of sorties falls on front-line tactical bomber and ground attack aircraft, the same Su-24s and Su-25s that tirelessly iron the front along the line of contact. Fortunately, the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine had almost none of them left - at the time of the start of the NMD, there were 23 Su-24 front-line bombers and 31 Su-25 subsonic attack aircraft (plus they could get another 38 Su-25K / Su-25UBK from the Czechs and Bulgarians). But, judging by the reports of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, if they received, then they are no longer left. Therefore, Washington recently announced the possible transfer of A-10 Thunderbolt II attack aircraft to Kyiv. In particular, the head of the US Air Force, Frank Kendall, mentioned this during his latest press approach. At the same time, Kendall clarified that the time had come for the Pentagon to get rid of these attack aircraft, after which the idea arose of transferring the A-10 Thunderbolt II to the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Along with this, the US Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Brown expressed confidence that Ukraine would have to abandon Soviet-era military equipment in favor of “something non-Russian” (however, he did not say why, but we all know why - they mowed everything down!) .
No one in the world except the Russian Federation and the United States no longer produces subsonic attack aircraft. Because they don’t know how, but these manufacturers don’t need it. But why did the States decide to abandon them, the question is? Apparently, they do not plan to clash with us on land, they hope to solve their problems exclusively with the help of the US Navy and Air Force. There they have a significant advantage. But whether we will give them this chance, I'm not sure, we will immediately turn on the nuclear and hypersonic club, as a result - they will go to hell, we will go to heaven. That is why they are trying to weaken us through proxy wars and doomed suicide bombers like Ukraine. But here is a bummer!
Victory is near
Summing up the intermediate results of the 5-month military campaign, we can already say that we have successfully completed the defeat of the most combat-ready group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, concentrated in the Donbass. Officially, this can only be declared with the fall of Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, after which it remains only to clear Maryinka and Avdiivka, closing the ring behind them and inviting the defenders to surrender or die (for me, the latter is better, because artillerymen from these two settlements in Only fierce death awaits in Donetsk, I hope they understand this!). The Seversk-Soledar-Bakhmut line will fall in the next few days, for it is difficult to defend the cities located in the lowlands when the dominant heights are already occupied by the enemy. Attention is drawn to the withdrawal of personnel line units from there with their withdrawal to the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line and their replacement with the unfired mobilization reserve of the 2nd and 3rd waves of mobilization. These people are deliberately thrown to the slaughter, and this reveals the whole bloody essence of the Kyiv regime, which is trying to prolong its wretched existence with corpses for at least another couple of months.
In fact, there are no more combat-ready units capable of providing arbitrarily long resistance to the RF Armed Forces in the Donbass. The shortage of personnel in the line units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, holding the defense there, reaches half of the payroll. Moreover, the most motivated and prepared part of it was knocked out. It is necessary to replenish, but there is no one. The replacement is not identical to the retired, neither in combat, nor in moral and psychological qualities, at the first combat contact, the new arrivals either die or surrender (they would be happy to run, but detachments of inveterate Nazis stand behind). By the way, the Nazis themselves are not eager to go into this hell, recently the Kharkov "Kraken" (this is the most combat-ready unit of "Azov", (an organization banned in the Russian Federation), refused to obey the order of the command to advance to the Kramatorsk region, as a result of a fight that arose and shootouts killed 6 people). With all the hatred for Putin, it is even less to die for Zelensky, the bravest, as a rule, sit in Kyiv, and the farther from the front line, the bolder.
However, the most difficult task has already been solved by us. In four months (from April to August), the RF Armed Forces, together with detachments of the NM LDNR, actually broke into the most impenetrable enemy fortified area stuffed with long-term fortifications. The fortifications hastily created along the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk line are field-type structures that do not have sufficient resistance to prolonged fire, and will fall under the first serious blows. There will be no long siege. An exit corridor will be given, after which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will prefer to leave or die. I think the first thing is that after Mariupol there are no more people who want to die in the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
We are now having a respite before the decisive assault, part of the troops has been assigned to a planned rotation, instead of them the first detachments of volunteers of the Volunteer Contract Army, which has been formed in the cities and towns of Russia all this time, are entering (details on this here). At the same time, as the military commander Sladkov says, these volunteers already in the first battles show miracles of courage. This is what the ideologically motivated parts mean (and materially, by the way, too!). These are the same 300 thousand bayonets that will be able to support the troops of the first strike, and without which we cannot move further to the west. And the fact that we are not going to stop there is clear even to a child. The next stage will be a throw to the south, in the direction of Nikolaev-Odessa-Pridnestrovie. At the same time, I do not exclude the activation of the Kharkov front, as well as the movement of the Donbass grouping in the direction of the Dnieper with access to Zaporozhye and Poltava. We will leave for winter apartments, having already taken from Ukraine all the left bank and the northern Black Sea coast. After that, funding for the 404th will cease (to unfasten $ 9 billion every month, there are no more fools in Europe, which by that time had begun to chatter its teeth from the cold, or in America, which had rolled into the most serious crisis since the Great Depression by November, no longer will remain). And then the box will begin to slam shut - the regime will collapse overnight, they will run so that only the heels will sparkle. And who does not have time, the court awaits, the fairest court in the world.
I hope everyone here understands that there will be no more negotiations with this gang of Nazis and drug addicts. How they fulfill their obligations, we have already seen enough in these 8 years on the example of the Minsk agreements. They are only waiting for a military tribunal as Nazi criminals and death by hanging (for these ghouls, I hope this measure will be restored). Anyone who does not have time to escape, only death awaits! On their grave, it will be possible to put the Instructions for the Javelin ATGM on 290 pages in English with a translation into Ukrainian through Google Translate (as a warning to everyone who wants to taste the power of Russian weapons - they will end in the same way!).
On this I say goodbye to you and wish everyone only peace (we will buy everything else for rubles!). Your Mr X.