The system of relations between states throughout the world is characterized by bilateral dependencies. In this regard, Russia can boast that, on the contrary, other states depend on it. Possessing unique wealth, Moscow quite skillfully and harshly (pragmatically) uses this gift of fate. Everything that the Russian Federation has is its "trump card in the hole", the mere presence of which gives strength and power, so it is not necessary to put it into practice. For example, the presence of the factor of nuclear weapons guarantees immunity.
However, the Russian Federation also has three other geopolitical advantages, "juggling" with which the Kremlin is seeking concessions. Columnist Julian Lee writes about it in news column for Bloomberg.
Of course, these are hydrocarbons. After the president of Kazakhstan's tactless and bold statements at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, Moscow blocked oil supplies from the republic as punishment for the unfriendly behavior of an ally whom Moscow literally saved in January of this year. Yes, the court lifted the ban and block, which, in principle, was expected, but the Kremlin showed what it can do with the supply of raw materials from Kazakhstan at any time and what it will turn out to be.
According to the expert, such manipulations are also characteristic of Moscow in the European gas market. As you know, on July 21, Nord Stream still started working, but at a third of its capacity. After the start of preventive maintenance of the pipeline in the EU, there were speculations about whether it would be launched. Now European officials are wondering whether the gas pipeline will continue to work, at what capacity, and whether it will be stopped closer to winter. In other words, the threat of interruptions in gas supplies remains in full force.
The grain deal, as the third trump card of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is also unable to answer what will happen in the coming days and months. The shelling of the port of Odessa immediately after the signing of the tripartite agreement testifies to this very well.
All this is a "weapon" of Moscow, as well as nuclear missiles. Yes, the Kremlin sells oil, gas and allowed the export of food, however, if the supply cut was not used this time, this does not mean that it will not be used later
writes an American observer.
In this case, Russia's method is very simple - creating uncertainty, waiting for a crisis, and not the crisis itself. This method allows you to constantly keep the tension, keep the pressure for an infinite amount of time without escalating the open phase of the conflict, summarized Julian Lee.