In what direction is the world changing?

It is already clear that 2022 has marked the beginning of a new era in modern history. Many felt that the pandemic, in terms of scale and unprecedentedness, marked something fundamentally new in the format of the life of the whole world, there was talk about a global digital concentration camp and a behind-the-scenes conspiracy, but that was not the case. 2022 put an end to globalization, post-industrial the economy, green agenda, democracy and peaceful coexistence of the West, that is, the "golden billion", and the rest of the world.

Change of eras and a look into the past

There is a lot of discussion of the confrontation between the West and the Russian Federation, the beginning of a new US cold war against China, the struggle for sovereignty against Anglo-American and European hegemony, but all these are private aspects of a more global change of era, which is inexorably approaching through a chain of significant crises, conflicts and ideological breakdowns.

Today it is ridiculous to recall that glamorous-pink ideology of the worldview that was promoted in the 1990s and 2000s, when the chatter of Westerners about humanistic, democratic, market values ​​obscured in the information space many real political processes. When wars, conflicts, upheavals, crises seemed to be only insignificant moments in the general process of the progressive, technically more and more perfect development of mankind. When the indicators of GDP, stock indices and the prices of "brands" were presented as unambiguous success factors for developed countries, and industrial production was the lot of forever grimy catching up economies. When the concept of state sovereignty was forgotten and everyone talked about the greatness of transnational corporations and international institutions.

Perspicacious publicists already at that time drew the public's attention to the global economic crisis, the growth of polarization, the growing appetites of the American military-industrial complex, deindustrialization, and signs of the impending breakdown of neoliberal globalization. But they all received the stigma of marginal visionaries, because well-groomed politicians, managers, experts and pundits in expensive suits assured that everything in the world was developing as it should. All problems will be settled by the market and agreements “at the highest level”.

But a pandemic happened, people sat at home, involuntarily lost in thought, and after most restrictions were lifted, the world appeared in a completely different light. It turned out that no one needs globalization anymore, that Western civilization dominates not because of market freedom and iPhones, but because it rapes and robs the whole world, that the economy should be self-sufficient. The pandemic seemed to have paused in the pace of life, and this failure in the natural course of perception cleared the brains of the Fukuyamshchina veil.

Of course, this is not a pandemic per se. Everything that is now happening before our eyes is not just natural, but has been ripening for decades. Nevertheless, not a single state, not a single major political force, not a single scientific school turned out to be ready for the onset of a new era.

Now many theorists are in a panic looking for some parallels from the past, some clues to explain what is happening in general and where the world is heading. To a new world war? To complete isolation of regions, countries and "civilizations"? Or is it just a “spring exacerbation”, which will pass by itself and everything will return to normal?

Western analysts, experts and publicists are racing to accuse Russia and China of deliberately destroying a prosperous and prosperous system of world order, carefully built by the United States after the collapse of the USSR. “After all, five years ago everything was fine with us, why are you doing this to us?” - as if they complain, feeling with their subcortex that as before, there will never be.

Many observers and unwitting victims of the era of change are outraged by the collapse of their usual way of life: some cannot get another Louis Vuitton handbag, while others have shells exploding in the courtyards of their houses. The latter can be understood, but, unfortunately, big changes always involve big sacrifices. And most of the victims are people, usually innocent and small. Those who are to a greater extent responsible for choosing the former vector of human development have either rested in peace, or are already retired and plan to sit out in cozy country houses. And their successors stubbornly continue to push the world to the brink of the abyss. And the point is not so much the danger of nuclear war as the complete absence of prospects for resolving the accumulated contradictions.

Objective and subjective

It was often said in school lessons that an “irresolvable knot of contradictions” led to one or another sharp turn in history. This meant that the people who determine politics and economics did not pay attention to some problems for a long time, which eventually became unmanageable and swept away everything in its path like a snowball. Now such a point of view on the historical process is not in fashion, today it is customary to consider politics and economics exclusively through the subjective will of the rulers. Trump did this and that, Biden did this and that, Zelensky did or did not do something, Putin is generally to blame for everything. That is, the objective side of political and economic processes does not seem to exist at all, or it plays a secondary role.

But we still more or less sometimes glimpse at least some understanding of objective processes. In the West, complete solipsism reigns in the public consciousness. Trump shouted that, as soon as he became president, he would change America, make it "great again", turn the life of Americans around. And people really believed him, and he himself, it seems, believed in his promises. So what? Sat in the chair of the President of the United States, made America great? Has something fundamentally changed? Nothing. America, as it followed the chosen path, continues to go to a dead end, falling into the agony of a decaying empire. What were the internal problems and contradictions, such remained. In the textbooks of American history, Trump will be given three lines, like dozens of other leaders.

If, however, subjectivism is discarded, recognizing that the subjective is realized within the framework of the objective, as accidental within the framework of the necessary, then much will become clearer.

Objective signs of a passing era

So, the world order, which is being destroyed today, took shape after the collapse of the USSR. In the 1990s, the United States remained the only superpower, the world market was turned into a space for the circulation of the dollar, the Western-style capitalist system (market + democracy) became the standard of civilization. Even socialist China vigorously introduced market relations, surpassing the old democratic powers in some aspects of liberalism. Therefore, the outgoing era is characterized by a decline in the role of the state, rampant big capital and, as a result, the fierce dictatorship of Western monopolies. Where natural resources lay poorly, American aircraft carrier groups, strike aviation units and fur seals rushed. Where local politicians showed obstinacy, American political technologists, human rights activists rushed, and extensive networks of agents were activated. In all local countries, the local oligarchy of various calibers ruled the ball. That is, something like the American model of society was taking shape.

The formula of the era is that American bigwigs suck the maximum wealth out of humanity, local "effective managers" collect crumbs from the table. All this was called with beautiful words "globalization" and "neoliberalism", but in fact it was the realization of Hitler's dreams of world domination.

Even then, some even the most odious supporters of the United States warned that such a configuration of the world economy and international politics could not exist for a long time, imbalances and contradictions were growing, the poor were getting poorer, the rich were getting richer, weak countries were increasingly thinking about their lack of sovereignty.

The growth of China and the strengthening of the Russian economy and politics, ensured by the increasing role of the state, gradually became points of irritation for the United States. And when the American economy began to lose to the Chinese economy under its own liberal rules and with dollar hegemony, all the rot of the system climbed out. Whether the reasons for the weakening of the United States were internal or external competition exerted such pressure is unclear. Here, as in school, there is a “knot of contradictions” - everything gradually played its role. American hegemony hit bottom when it had to flee from the Taliban in Baghdad. After that, the ruling circles of the United States set a course for a sharp aggravation of foreign policy, for unleashing conflicts and aggression. The military-political leadership of the United States has fallen into a mental frenzy, characteristic of the leaders of states, from whose hands world domination is slipping away.

Objective signs of the coming era

In 2022, everything has changed fundamentally. Let some other mechanisms have not had time to rebuild, but this is a matter of two or three years. The world has suddenly become black and white - there is the United States and its concept of American hegemony, and there are others who do not agree with them. No more compromises and concessions, only aggravation and confrontation. "He who is not with us is against us." Only Papua New Guinea will be able to sit on the sidelines, because no one cares about it.

All the old "normalities" like free speech, sacred private property rights, human rights are gone. The “good old” era of the right of the strong has come. No amount of liberalism and expansive humanism solves anything anymore. Everything will be mobilized and rebuilt for a crusade against "Chinese communism" and "Russian authoritarianism". Ideologically, everything will be filled with Sinophobia and Russophobia. We are waiting for a repetition of McCarthyism, only if the old McCarthyism came to naught due to the death of Stalin and the coming to power of Khrushchev, who seemed to the Americans an acceptable figure, the new McCarthyism promises to be long, since neither China nor Russia will change course in the coming years.

In the West, everything is already being turned upside down, they say that it is the Chinese and Russians who are the aggressors and destroyers. Although in fact China and Russia have not changed their policies, they consistently take a defensive position, trying to survive in the face of growing pressure. Yes, the Russian Federation launched a special operation in Ukraine, but this is a purely tactical initiative, the United States would still unleash an armed conflict under one sauce or another.

And most importantly: what are the economic signs of a new era? A complete merging of the state and capital in this or that balancing act, because preparations are underway for a world war. This does not mean that such a war is inevitable or that a thermonuclear apocalypse awaits us, the matter is different. For some, in the West, the accumulation of all resources in the hands of the state and monopolies is beneficial to the largest magnates, who, under the guise of an economic crisis, will strangle all competitors and rip off the population as much as possible. But even without this, it is impossible to continue an aggressive attempt to maintain world hegemony. For others, it's the only way to survive. China, Russia and some other countries under pressure from the West are acting largely out of unavoidable necessity. They are not left with much choice: either mobilize or hand over the country to be torn to pieces. The State Department brainchild Forum of Free Peoples has already drawn a map of the “decolonization of Russia” with its transformation into 34 “independent states”, and Walesa calculated that less than 50 million people will remain in the new Russia.
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 25 July 2022 16: 56
    Everything is simple. There is a decline of the new Roman Empire of the USA (and their EU colonies). And after its decline, the development of civilization moved to the East. And now the same story is being repeated. Everything in the world is cyclical and goes in a spiral. In the West, the "Middle Ages" are coming, and in the East, flourishing and prosperity. And it will be about 1 thousand years - if you look at how it was last time.
    1. Pat Rick Offline Pat Rick
      Pat Rick 25 July 2022 20: 41
      The Roman Empire collapsed in 476. This is clear. The barbarians have finished. The Middle Ages began. And the East is what? Byzantium? So it was rolled up by the Ottoman Turks in 1453.
      Is it civilization?

      development of civilization moved to the East.

      What East... Khorezm Khanate, India, China, Japan...
  2. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 25 July 2022 18: 10
    Many beech

    Everything is much simpler: the collective West - for perspective reasons - "liked" the natural resources of the vast Russian Federation.
    There is "a little effort" on their part, and after the collapse of Russia, 50 million families of "miners" will be enough for mining!
    Of course, in such a coordinate system, competing Russian business is also redundant...
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 25 July 2022 20: 38
      Should get better: 50 million in the families of “miners”.
  3. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 25 July 2022 18: 11
    The year 2022 put an end to globalization, the post-industrial economy, the green agenda, democracy and the peaceful coexistence of the West, that is, the "golden billion", and the rest of the world.

    No. Didn't put any points. Globalization will definitely return. And as a result of it - a post-industrial economy and a green agenda. Also, democracy and peaceful coexistence will not go anywhere.
    Reducing the weight of the US and the EU in the global economy is not a revolution at all. It's just a change of leaders and a shift in emphasis. For the same globalization, the international division of labor is quite enough. Gay parades are not required at all.
    The benefits of globalization will be shared more fairly - this is the main change. We will thank the United States and Europe for the excellent economic work done, but we will not pay tribute anymore.
    Neither China nor Russia can replace the US and the EU. Therefore, if we pass the crisis without a nuclear war, then there will be peaceful coexistence.
    1. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
      soloist2424 (Oleg) 2 August 2022 19: 13
      And I agree with the author of the article - the world will change irrevocably. Globalization will not return.
  4. opportunist Offline opportunist
    opportunist (dim) 25 July 2022 19: 44
    The strong advance as far as his strength allows, and the weak retreat as far as weakness compels him.

    Thucydides Greek philosopher 471 BC

    what is happening today is a repetition of the Peloponnesian War the arrogant imperialist policy of Athens to dominate the ancient Greek world against the backdrop of the alliance of Delos using the policy of exporting democracy in the midst of the mighty Athenian fleet led to the formation of the Peloponnesian Union, the leading power of which was the largest continental military power Sparta. then the long Peloponnesian wars began , ending in the defeat and surrender of Athens. Almost 2500 years after those events, nothing has changed. Because human nature has not changed either, liberal globalized democracy was nothing more than an American political construct for global hegemony and domination based on American aircraft carriers, strong (USA ) continuously expanded their sphere of influence until the weak (Russia-China) decided to put an end to this, the Russian elite realized after 2014 and EuroMaiden that it was necessary to put an end to NATO expansion, at the same time, China realized that it was time to openly quit The challenge to US Navy hegemony in the Pacific is now all set in motion. Since there is a strong axis of resistance to the ruler, it is only a matter of time before others follow. rejection of liberalism strengthening of the concept of state and nation rejection of the dollar as a world reserve
  5. InanRom Offline InanRom
    InanRom (Ivan) 25 July 2022 20: 31
    “The European and world war has a clearly defined character of a bourgeois, imperialist, dynastic war. The struggle for markets and the robbery of foreign countries, the desire to stop the revolutionary movement of the proletariat and democracy within countries, the desire to fool, divide and kill the proletarians of all countries, setting the wage-slaves of one nation against the wage-slaves of another for the benefit of the bourgeoisie - such is the only real content and meaning of war. V.I. Lenin, PSS, v.26, p.1

    The monstrous horrors of the imperialist war, the agony of high prices everywhere give rise to a revolutionary mood, and the ruling classes ... more and more fall into a dead end, from which they cannot find a way out at all without the greatest upheavals ... V. I. Lenin From a speech at a meeting of the Swiss working youth

    “The universal high cost of living, the oppression of capital united in unions, cartels, trusts, syndicates, and the imperialist policy of the powers make the position of the working masses intolerable, sharpen the struggle between capital and labor; the time is fast approaching when an end will be put to capitalism, when millions of united proletarians will create a social order in which there will be no poverty of the masses, no exploitation of man by man.”
    V.I. Lenin, PSS, v.22 p.202
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 25 July 2022 23: 55
    An attempt to subdue the Russian Federation led to the “rebellion” of the Russian Federation against the world hegemony of the West and marked the beginning of an era for the redivision of the world.
    The sanctions war against the Russian Federation gave rise to economic problems in the EU and internal contradictions.
    The discrepancy between the interests of large Anglo-Saxon capital represented by the US-Britain-Canada-Australia and the EU gives rise to disagreements, which in turn stimulate the EU's desire to get out of subordination to the US and gain greater political, economic and military freedom of action on the world stage.
    The situation that has developed today can be characterized as an unstable balance that can be changed by the NMD of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, China, India, Israel, Arab state formations, the so-called. Third World countries.
  7. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 26 July 2022 00: 33
    Good article. But there is a feeling that it is as if not finished. That is, the author, as it were, prepared and twisted the plot, but there is no denouement. And too lazy to think out the denouement ...
  8. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 26 July 2022 20: 50
    In what direction is the world changing?

    The world is certainly changing, some contradictions are smoothed out, while others grow and lead to conflicts of varying degrees of tension. Unfortunately, the author's arguments do not fully reveal the essence of the problems that led to the SVO and are mostly agitation and propaganda material...
  9. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
    soloist2424 (Oleg) 2 August 2022 19: 18
    It is generally difficult to reveal how and why the world is changing in one article. The processes that We see, for sure, are a small part of the real processes that will irrevocably change our lives.