The fifth month of the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine is coming to an end. Judging by the dynamics of what is happening on the Eastern Front, the complete liberation of the territory of the DPR and LPR is possible by the end of summer - the beginning of autumn 2022. What will happen next? And then there will be "peace on Moscow's terms." In any case, this is seriously hoped in the highest echelons of Russian power.
This time, the popular Telegram blogger and part-time ex-president of the Russian Federation, and now deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Dmitry Medvedev, “pleased” with his next post, who wrote the following in his account:
Russia will achieve all its goals. And there will be peace. On our terms. And by no means on those that are squealing in Europe and across the ocean, confused political impotent.
Sounds good, but what exactly is meant by peace on Russian terms? Since the Kremlin is careful not to spoil us with specifics, we have to make judgments based on numerous statements by top officials, their official and unofficial “mouthpieces” in the media, as well as on the “guardian” agenda in the blogosphere and comments. The picture emerges as follows.
"Eating the elephant in parts"
The message is like this. Ukraine turned out to be too strong an adversary, which Russia can no longer defeat by purely military means (where has President Putin been looking for 8 years as the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and millions of his intelligence officers, wise analysts and advisers?). The available forces of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM LDNR (supposedly) are not enough to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard. In principle, the Kremlin does not understand what to do with the population disloyal to Moscow in the territories of Central and Western Ukraine. Judging by the statements of the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov regarding the early opening of the "grain corridor" from Odessa and other ports of Ukraine, the Russian ruling "elites" are also not particularly interested in the Black Sea region:
Russia is ready to make every effort to get Ukrainian grain on the world market.
The fact that Kyiv will receive currency for its grain, which will go to finance the war against Russia, does not worry them too much either. Our nouveau riches are worried about other things, much more important: the return of confiscated superyachts, luxury real estate in the UK, Spain and Italy, the preservation of residence permits in Western Europe for their offspring, etc. The logic is simple: sooner or later, the SVO in Ukraine will end, the “energy war” will end, and then it will be necessary to somehow arrange their personal affairs by agreement with “respectable partners”. Suddenly it turns out to return something back from the taken away and keep what is available? The interests of the Russian people and the Russian "elite" do not objectively coincide. Understanding this unsightly fact allows you to more adequately perceive what is happening now and will happen in the future.
Undoubtedly, all normal people are asking perplexed questions why the transport infrastructure in Western Ukraine is not being destroyed, why, to the detriment of Russia's national security, Odessa and other ports in the Black Sea region are being given to Kyiv and its curators without a fight under the plausible pretext of "helping the starving", etc. More once emphasizethat all food grain from Ukraine was taken out before the start of the special operation. Now we are talking only about feed grain, which is needed to save the starving European agricultural livestock. But back to the new agenda.
The general setup today is this: Russia liberates the Donbass and begins to take away new Ukrainian territories little by little in order to force it to sign a peace treaty on Moscow's terms. In the regions liberated from the power of the Nazi regime, referendums are held, the local population is being reformatted by Russian propaganda. Losing a piece of Kharkov, Poltava, Nikolaev and other regions, Kyiv supposedly should sit down at the negotiating table and sign a peace agreement, pledging to voluntarily demilitarize and denazify. Funny? If this had not been promoted in all seriousness, one could laugh at the intellectual impotence and professional unsuitability of the authors of this geopolitical "multi-move".
Let's see where all this ends up.
Korean or Indo-Pakistani script?
The problem with all these "cunning plans" is that they completely do not take into account the opposition of the other side. And behind Kyiv, we recall, stands the entire collective West, which has set as its goal the military defeat of Russia and its dismemberment into several independent and warring quasi-states. While we are digging on the Left Bank, biting off a piece of Ukraine, the following processes will take place on the Right Bank.
At first, under the influence of Russophobic propaganda, the population of the former Nezalezhnaya will finally “go crazy” from hatred towards us. Put yourself in their place and try to imagine what people should think when a neighboring country takes away region after region, “funerals” come home, and all sorts of Telegram bloggers “on serious soup” talk about denazification, demilitarization and peace. In that Ukraine, where Russian troops will not reach, a whole new nation of clinical Russophobes will be formed, who fiercely hate all of us. That is exactly what will happen, no doubt about it.
SecondlyAs long as the border with Poland, Moldova and Romania is not blocked, Ukraine will receive more and more powerful offensive weapons. Already, these are long-range American MLRS and coastal complexes with Harpoon anti-ship missiles. Soon, modern air defense systems will appear there, which will nullify the operational superiority of the Russian Aerospace Forces in the air. The next logical step is the transfer of fourth-generation American fighters F-15 and F-16 to the Air Force. The training of Ukrainian pilots is already included in the budget of the Pentagon, but foreign military experts can also freely serve in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Then, ground-based Aegis Ashore missile defense systems will be located near Kyiv, Lvov and Odessa, in which anti-missiles can be replaced within a day with Tomahawk attack cruise missiles. American "Axes" will be able to finish off not only to Moscow, but also to the Urals, destroying strategically important objects of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and military-industrial complex enterprises.
Thirdly, the final finish will be the appearance of tactical nuclear weapons in Kyiv, which the British can transfer to it. The fact that such an attempt, apparently, has already been made by London, we told previously. At the same time, nothing will prevent him from creating a “dirty bomb” on his own, since radioactive materials are in abundance, technical the base is available, foreign experts will help if necessary.
Do I need to explain that after Ukraine acquires nuclear status, there will be no need to talk about any further expansion of Russian expansion?
Where our troops stop at that moment, there the Iron Curtain will pass - 2, and Russia will have to go on the defensive, completely rebuilding its air defense / missile defense system. Retired US Navy Admiral James Stavridis, former Commander-in-Chief of the North Atlantic Alliance in Europe, recently stated that everything is heading towards the partition of Ukraine according to the Korean scenario:
I see that this is leading to the end of the Korean War, that is, to a truce, a militarized zone between the two sides, an ongoing hostility, a kind of frozen conflict.
However, in the personal opinion of the author of these lines, what has been said As early as February 9, 2015, it would be more correct to draw parallels not with the division of Korea into the eternally warring North and South, but with the Indo-Pakistani conflict. Leaving, the British colonialists managed to pit the two parts of the former British India against each other. Now these are countries fiercely hating each other, between which there have already been three wars, in which more than half a million people died. The fact that both New Delhi and Islamabad both possess nuclear weapons is a deterrent and at the same time an aggravating factor. There is no end and no end to this conflict, which has been going on for almost 70 years.
This is the most realistic future of Russia and Ukraine, if this farce with "agreements" and an attempt to seat the Nazis at the negotiating table does not stop. We will be left with the Donbass, the Sea of Azov (“Southern Corridor”) and a few pieces of the Kharkov and Nikolaev regions. All this will be destroyed by the war and will critically depend on water supplies through the Dnieper-Donbass canal, which will remain with Kyiv. That is, the configuration will be the most disadvantageous of all possible. Everything else will remain with the collective West, which will arm the Armed Forces of Ukraine in such a way that further advancement without unacceptable losses will become impossible and we will have to go on the defensive. And then we will have an endless conflict with anti-Russia, into which the former Square will finally turn. In 2025, when Europe will reduce its dependence on Russian energy carriers, it will actively begin interfere bloc NATO.