Kaliningrad: goal or means for the West?

The blockade of the Kaliningrad region is one of the hottest topics of recent weeks. The media and "experts" on both sides are vying with predictions about when the exclave will become the scene of the next round of the fight between Russia and the West. The Lithuanian transit demarche is called either a “diversionary maneuver”, under which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will launch their “most general” offensive in southern Ukraine, or a “bargaining chip” for “grain negotiations” in Istanbul.

Hotter than all anneal, of course, the Polish "talking heads". One of them called Kaliningrad a "powder keg between the legs of Europe", which urgently needs to be demilitarized, the other called it "primordially Polish territory." The former chairman of the trade union Walesa went even further and proposed to reduce the total number of Russians by three times. Two weeks ago, Polish President Duda and Lithuanian President Nauseda even went to the notorious "Suwalki Corridor" to inspect the combat readiness of their troops. It seems that the Commonwealth has already prepared for the jump and is only waiting for a go-ahead.

This is not entirely true, and in general the situation is more curious than it might seem at first glance.

"Island of freedom" on the Baltic coast

Comparisons of Kaliningrad with a powder keg in some place are not unfounded. Calibers on board the ships based in Baltiysk, the Iskander brigade and the Smerch division make the Russian outpost advanced to the west a real battery fort, whose artillery covers almost all of Eastern Europe and part of Germany. To increase the confidence of the sworn "partners", the missile units in Kaliningrad are almost certainly equipped with nuclear weapons.

In a sense, the Kaliningrad region today plays the same role that the Soviet militarypolitical in 1962, the leadership tried to try on Cuba: an advanced deterrence line from which one could try to "counter" enemy nuclear attack weapons. The main targets of hypothetical strikes from Kaliningrad are nuclear weapons depots and bases of their carriers in the northern part of Europe.

The Russian ground forces in the region are represented by a motorized rifle brigade, motorized rifle and tank regiments. They are sufficient (more precisely, barely sufficient) only for the defense of their territory, there can be no talk of any “throws” in one direction or another.

The Polish-Lithuanian gentry (obviously, not without the prompting of the overseas “lords-over-lords”) are generally aware of the real significance of the Kaliningrad outpost and are modernizing their military forces in such a way as to “counter” the already Russian potential.

On May 4, 2022, the Polish Minister of Defense announced that he had sent a request to the United States for 500 HIMARS installations. This is a lot: in terms of launcher "packages" - more than half of the number of MLRS in the US Armed Forces. Estonia requested six more of the same. They are complemented by two hundred 152-mm and 155-mm self-propelled guns, of which half are modern Polish Krabs (in fact, British AS-90s), Estonian K9s from Korea and German-made Lithuanian PzH-2000s; and almost the same number of 122-mm MLRS - Grad analogues.

Very weak, even in comparison with Ukraine, is the ground-based air defense of the Commonwealth, the most powerful weapons of which are the Soviet Kvadrat and Osa complexes (this is if they have not yet been donated to Bandera), and the bulk consists of MANPADS and 23- mm automatic guns. To compensate for this shortcoming, eight Patriot SAM batteries (two of which are already to be delivered) and a number of SAMM short-range systems have been issued from the United States. Lithuania boasts two NASAMS medium-range air defense batteries.

True, it is still unknown when to expect most of this "good", but if new weapons are mastered, they will seriously increase the potential of the Baltic "brothers". Even now, without high-tech innovations, all together they represent a fairly serious force, comparable to the army of the Kyiv regime before the start of the NMD.

But is this force directed only against Russia?

"Spare" NATO

It is well known that the United States (or rather, the American establishment) has no "friends", only interests, enemies and "sixes".

Of course, the US would like to drag Russia into a more serious war, and the "Kaliningrad card" seems like a good option for this... But what about the risk of nuclear escalation?

As much as many people like to claim that the Russian military-political leadership consists entirely of idiots and / or traitors, from time to time he manages to surprise. The provocative Western policy until February 24 was largely based on the belief that "Putin would not dare" - and that's how it turned out.

Any real attempt on the exclave will lead to the fact that missiles from there will fly to pre-designated targets, and no Pentagon analysts will give an absolute guarantee that they will be in conventional equipment and that something more terrible will not fly towards the American continent.

Therefore, the “Kaliningrad card” is such a trump card, which is scary to throw away. He will remain in the most extreme case, when a big war will need a nosebleed for the US as much as possible. So far, even the threat of a complete collapse of the Kyiv regime is not such a case.

At the same time, Kaliningrad is an excellent scarecrow that can be used to justify the build-up of the Anglo-American presence on the continent, and the rearmament of Poland, and the expansion of NATO to the north, and the shift of the center of gravity of the alliance there. Western public opinion as a whole has no suspicions about this: “That's right, there are evil Russian orcs there, let the Americans and their henchmen be substituted, and we will sit here behind their backs...”

Recently, the loyalty of the old European "allies" to the common cause of NATO - that is, serving the interests of the United States - causes more and more doubts among Americans. And if Trump, who is more interested in the Asia-Pacific direction, was almost ready to give up the “unnecessary” European foothold, then Biden and the Democratic Party clearly do not intend to leave. On the contrary: for them, the priority is American dominance in Europe, economically stripped naked and reduced to the state of a sales market and a military camp on the continent, in general, completely Ukrainianized.

By the forces of manual "politicians" such as Macron and Scholz, the dismantling of the European economics It goes well enough, but not everyone likes it. In the short term, it is not at all excluded that European nationalists, in conjunction with industrial capital and the military, throw American puppets out of their seats, and then ask American troops to leave the continent.

For such a case, the United States and Great Britain are creating a "security belt" parallel to NATO in Eastern and Northern Europe. The Balkan, Polish, Baltic (and, to a lesser extent, Scandinavian) so-called elites, firstly, are much more accommodating than Western European ones, and secondly, they experience the same cruel historical envy and hatred for the latter as they do for the “Muscovites”. ".

If the Americans still lose control over Europe and they have to launch a Special Military Operation to force the "allies" to cohabit, then 800 Polish tanks and 500 HIMARS "directed against Russia" will turn out to be a very weighty argument in a serious conversation with the Germans and the French. In the hands of Uncle Sam and the geographical position of Poland, which makes it possible to block German ports and physically cut off the supply of Russian energy resources without touching Russia itself.

The blockade of Kaliningrad, in addition to putting pressure on Moscow, was also a test of the loyalty of the Baltic mongrels. The result is obvious: Lithuania, in fact, openly declared that it serves only the Anglo-Saxons, and all this “Eurodiplomacy” was seen somewhere; Poland fully supported the younger neighbor in these views. So, in the place of the Germans, I would carefully observe such "allies".
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 18 July 2022 13: 16
    One of them called Kaliningrad "a powder keg between the legs of Europe"

    Which side, front or back?
    Poland sits on the neck of Germany, and if it is no longer financed, then it will not last long. And the EU, it seems, will soon stop playing democracy and throw off its sheep's skin.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 18 July 2022 19: 46
      Here England rules the Giraltar military base by force conquered from Spain, thereby holding the entire strategic Strait of Gibraltar by the throat with its exclave, and even Spain is unable to return its native territory. So why is Kaliningrad different, also a strategic military base - my land, as I want, I turn it like that ...
  2. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 18 July 2022 20: 37
    If the Americans still lose control over Europe and they have to launch a Special Military Operation to force the "allies" to cohabit, then 800 Polish tanks and 500 HIMARS "directed against Russia" will turn out to be a very weighty argument in a serious conversation with the Germans and the French. In the hands of Uncle Sam and the geographical position of Poland, which makes it possible to block German ports and physically cut off the supply of Russian energy resources without touching Russia itself.

    However, what a bizarre train of thought. Is the author himself it believe?!
  3. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 19 July 2022 07: 59
    In fact, the US is on the sidelines here.
    Great Britain wants to remain in the world to come in the top positions. To do this, she needs to get her own currency zone. Johnson had the task of organizing this at any cost.
    The World Bank has no resources for the currency zone. In recent years, there have been several options, all of them failed. The last one remains: to break up the EU and use Western Europe to create a zone. At the same time, Germany will have to be destroyed, without this it will be difficult for Britain to destroy the EU, especially since Putin categorically does not want to see the World Bank as the leader of the currency zone.
    To interest Putin, Johnson planned to launch Poland into Western Ukraine, where it would suffer a military defeat, which would cause the collapse of Poland. At the expense of pieces of Poland, Johnson planned to satisfy the participants in the redivision of Europe.
    The trouble is that Poland's military operation would have ended before it began. Belarus would have stepped in (which Lukashenka announced a couple of months ago) and, together with the grouping of the RF Armed Forces (located in Belarus), the Polish army would have been annihilated very quickly.
    In order for Poland to have time to do at least something there, they decided to distract Russia and Belarus with Kaliningrad, expecting that Putin would lead and start cutting down the corridor to Kaliningrad. Putin turned out to be smarter than the red-haired clown.
    During the pause associated with the disassembly of the EU, Lithuania and the Russian Federation, Yaroslav Kaczynski, who was Deputy Prime Minister, head of the Security Council, head of the ruling party, shadow leader of the country and the main agent of influence of the WB, was removed from power in Poland.
    Official public positions (Deputy Prime Minister and Head of the Security Council) were taken by Mariusz Blaszczak, Minister of Defense. He very soberly assesses the capabilities of the Polish army against the RF Armed Forces (especially, together with the Belarusian Armed Forces). Therefore, the suicide of the army (and, as a result, of Poland) will not be allowed.
    Johnson's option failed, this was the main reason for his resignation. Whether this will be the final downfall of Britain's role remains to be seen. In this case, it will become just the six of the United States, a completely ordinary country, not even a power.