Economic recession in China poses a danger to Russia
Chinese policy “zero tolerance” to covid, coupled with the lockdown of large metropolitan areas, led to negative consequences for economics China is on the brink of recession. GDP growth has slowed down, indicators for China are depressing. Now even modest expectations regarding economic development are called "unrealizable" by experts. Such a tough policy of the leadership of the state has led in recent months to the fact that business life has been periodically severely limited or even completely paralyzed in various densely populated regions of China.
While China solves its problems, the Russian economy may suffer from a decrease in its potential. The danger for the Russian Federation lies in the fact that a large-scale recession threatens to reduce regional prices for oil, gas and coal. This is bad for Moscow, which now has all hope of exporting to China.
As fear of an impending recession grew in the US and the EU, a third major powerhouse of the world economy was on the verge of an economic downturn: China. China's statistics office said on July 15 that China's GDP growth almost stalled in the second quarter of 2, at just 2022% year-over-year. According to the results of the 0,4st quarter, this indicator was still at the level of 1%.
Forecasts for Russia are disappointing. Its main client and consumer of many commodities, as well as metals, in the 3rd quarter and in the following months may well repeat lockdowns like the Shanghai one, which will significantly worsen the index of business activity and demand for products imported from the Russian Federation.
In this case, for Russia it will be a double blow. Almost a 10% decline in gas production is already being recorded. A decrease in demand (consumption) will force producers to reduce production even more, and this, in turn, will affect the overall performance of the Russian economy. Together with the global reduction in the cost of commodities, this will lead to a slowdown in the growth of the already modest GDP figures in the Russian Federation.
- Author: Nikolay Gritsay
- Photos used: Mikhail Khamin