Economic recession in China poses a danger to Russia

Chinese policy “zero tolerance” to covid, coupled with the lockdown of large metropolitan areas, led to negative consequences for economics China is on the brink of recession. GDP growth has slowed down, indicators for China are depressing. Now even modest expectations regarding economic development are called "unrealizable" by experts. Such a tough policy of the leadership of the state has led in recent months to the fact that business life has been periodically severely limited or even completely paralyzed in various densely populated regions of China.

While China solves its problems, the Russian economy may suffer from a decrease in its potential. The danger for the Russian Federation lies in the fact that a large-scale recession threatens to reduce regional prices for oil, gas and coal. This is bad for Moscow, which now has all hope of exporting to China.

As fear of an impending recession grew in the US and the EU, a third major powerhouse of the world economy was on the verge of an economic downturn: China. China's statistics office said on July 15 that China's GDP growth almost stalled in the second quarter of 2, at just 2022% year-over-year. According to the results of the 0,4st quarter, this indicator was still at the level of 1%.

Forecasts for Russia are disappointing. Its main client and consumer of many commodities, as well as metals, in the 3rd quarter and in the following months may well repeat lockdowns like the Shanghai one, which will significantly worsen the index of business activity and demand for products imported from the Russian Federation.

In this case, for Russia it will be a double blow. Almost a 10% decline in gas production is already being recorded. A decrease in demand (consumption) will force producers to reduce production even more, and this, in turn, will affect the overall performance of the Russian economy. Together with the global reduction in the cost of commodities, this will lead to a slowdown in the growth of the already modest GDP figures in the Russian Federation.
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  1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 16 July 2022 10: 08
    There will be quite natural negative consequences for the Russian Federation: the country is a raw material appendage of industrialized countries. The danger for the Russian Federation is not in particular: the recession in the PRC, but the claim to the world pole of power in the "dead" economy.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 16 July 2022 10: 20
    Yes, falling demand over the hill is dangerous for neo-colonial countries.
    And China, with its large population, knows what it is doing, apparently.
  3. opportunist Offline opportunist
    opportunist (dim) 16 July 2022 11: 03
    all economies in the world will be in recession in the next two years
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 16 July 2022 11: 14
    1. There are no targets for economic growth in the 14th Five-Year Plan
    Emphasis is placed on the dual circulation program, i.e. on the development of the domestic market and external relations, and the domestic market is the largest in the world and, moreover, solvent as a result of the implementation of another program - reducing poverty and building a moderately prosperous society, as a result of which the income per Chinese soul amounted to about 5 thousand dollars - a good starting position in the new five years.
    The plan provides for a further increase in living standards, the transformation of the PRC into a world technological power, ensuring food security and other strategic tasks.

    2. The PRC is tightly integrated into the world economic system, which leads to the interdependence of both the PRC on the world situation and the world economy as a whole on the economic successes or failures of the PRC.
    The main brake on the development of the world economy, according to the PRC, is the US bloc policy, which leads to the division of the world into “ours” and “enemies”, political economic and military confrontation.
    Abandoning the Cold War mindset would provide a powerful boost to economic development, but for the United States, it would mean losing world domination, which it will never do.

    3. The low population of the Russian Federation and its ability to pay does not ensure demand and industrial production. Therefore, the main source of income today and in the future remains the external market, and hence the external dependence of a great world power on the same China, the USA, the EU, their unions and associations.
  5. hello Offline hello
    hello (LEO St) 17 July 2022 16: 18
    Almost every day for twenty years I have seen an analysis of the collapse of the Chinese economy in the year in which it occurred.