Kuril kink: Japan can become a nuclear power in a few days

Contrary to the expectations of the jingoistic public, the special military operation in Ukraine turned out to be no easy walk. It takes a long and hard time to fight against the Ukrainian army, which has been preparing defensive lines in the Donbas for 8 years. At the same time, the “hegemon” creates for Russia more and more new points of tension, which in the future may develop into an armed conflict with the NATO bloc in the Baltics, Transnistria, the Arctic, the Pacific Ocean, etc. More and more often, calls are heard from the same public to “shout” in Kyiv , Lvov, Vilnius, Warsaw, London, Oslo, Tokyo and Washington with nuclear weapons. How should one treat this?

It should be realized that nuclear weapons are primarily a means of strategic deterrence, and not something that is easily and casually used on the battlefield. Let's try to imagine how adequate are the calls to "gasp" for nuclear weapons, say, in Japan, as some of our unfortunate "experts" insistently suggest.

Russo-Japanese nuclear war?

The reason for the war between Russia and Japan may be a special military operation to "demilitarize" and "de-Russify" the so-called northern territories, by which Tokyo understands our Kuril Islands. They became part of the USSR, and then the Russian Federation as a military prize following the results of the Second World War, which militaristic Japan lost.

The problem is that Tokyo still does not recognize the Kuriles as Russian, and our countries have not even formally signed a peace treaty. Even worse, Japanese sovereignty over the "northern territories" is recognized by Washington, which was stated shortly before the start of the special operation in Ukraine by the head of the American embassy in Tokyo, Rahm Emanuel:

On February 7, Japan's Northern Territories Day, I want to be very clear: The United States has supported Japan on the Northern Territories issue and has recognized Japanese sovereignty over the four disputed islands since the 1950s.

A Japanese special operation may look like this: its Naval Self-Defense Forces will blockade the Kuriles, aviation will suppress the air defense system and coastal missile systems on the islands, then an assault force will be landed. Unfortunately, Tokyo right now has everything necessary for this: Japanese aviation dominates the sky in this potential theater of operations, the Japanese navy over our KTOF - in the Pacific Ocean. By the way, in addition to the Maritime Self-Defense Forces, Japan actually has a second auxiliary fleet, called the Coast Guard, which has 45 large, 39 medium and 34 small patrol ships, over 220 patrol boats, 13 hydrographic boats, 5 fire boats, 4 fire boats , up to 130 service and support vessels, as well as 25 aircraft and 46 helicopters. This is just what is needed to simultaneously transfer a large military contingent to the "northern territories" from all over the military technique and its subsequent reliable supply.

The power imbalance is so glaring that, as soon as it becomes known, some self-proclaimed "analysts" begin to frantically demand a nuclear strike on Tokyo. More adequate people propose to start, nevertheless, with pinpoint missile strikes with conventional warheads on Japan's military infrastructure in order to “demilitarize” it and intimidate it, forcing it to withdraw from the war. True, for some reason, the real experience of “calibrating” Ukraine is completely ignored, which for some reason has not yet led to the desired result. But back to the prospect of using nuclear weapons against Japan.

Will the hypothetical new Russo-Japanese war really be nuclear if, God forbid, it happens?

Exchange of "nuclear courtesies"

As we have already pointed out from the very beginning, nuclear weapons are precisely a means of strategic deterrence, and not something that is waved right and left in someone's violent fantasies. The presence of a nuclear arsenal that guarantees mutual destruction or infliction of unacceptable damage forces the United States and Russia (formerly the USSR) to fight each other not directly, but only indirectly. This is Vietnam at one time, and Afghanistan, and Syria, and Georgia and Ukraine. By the way, as the experience of the special operation showed, the presence of a nuclear arsenal in itself does not relieve Russia of the need to wage a large-scale war by conventional means. However, let's get back to Japan, which is coveting the Russian Kuriles. Does the very possibility of using nuclear weapons against it mean that a naval war for the "northern territories" is a priori excluded?

No, it doesn't. When various "experts" talk about a nuclear attack on Tokyo, they forget some important points.

At first, it should be borne in mind that the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan has been concluded and is in force between the United States and Japan, according to which there are American military personnel in the Land of the Rising Sun in the amount of at least 47 thousand, as well as about 52 thousand members of their families. In total, the Pentagon has 91 military infrastructure facilities in Japan. According to the treaty, the Japanese authorities must protect them. By the way, the headquarters of the American military (occupation) contingent is located just 30 kilometers from Tokyo. That is, in the event of a nuclear strike on the Japanese capital, they are guaranteed to die, which will automatically lead to a nuclear war between Russia and the “hegemon”.

Secondly, as we mentioned earlier, Washington formally recognizes Tokyo's rights to the "Northern Territories". Given the presence of American troops in Japan, one can be sure that the Pentagon will help its ally against Russia with at least intelligence, as is currently happening in Ukraine, and will also cover the most important military infrastructure facilities with its air defense / missile defense umbrella, which will complicate the “demilitarization” by conventional methods.

ThirdlyWhat is even worse, Japan is literally half a step away from becoming the owner of nuclear weapons itself. The fact that the island state is a “hidden nuclear power” was written by the Chinese edition of Sohu back in 2019:

A nuclear power lurks at the gates of China, but it is not Russia or the United States, but Japan, which has always remained in the shadows ... Although Japan is not allowed to create nuclear weapons, this country has built relatively advanced nuclear power plants and used nuclear energy to generate electricity. Although Japan has not developed nuclear weapons, it is already a world leader in the use of nuclear technology.

According to some estimates at that time, thanks to the presence of a powerful research and production base, Japan could, if desired, become a nuclear power in just a year. Now this period has been reduced to literally a few days, according to the Japanese edition of JB Press:

Tokyo is able to create a nuclear bomb within a few days. Both delivery vehicles and guidance technologies are available to him. Japan already has fissile material to build a nuclear bomb. In addition, the design and method of its production is now well known. It does not require advanced technology or big money.

We are talking about dual-use technologies that the Japanese love to indulge in. So, they built two anti-submarine destroyers, which turned out to be "crypto-aircraft carriers." So it happened with nuclear weapons in a similar way.

Coincidence or not, but right now, in the second half of 2022, Japan's first nuclear fuel processing plant should start operating, which will allow the extraction of up to 8 tons of plutonium and uranium per year. The uranium enrichment plant has been operating for a long time, since 1992. According to JB Press, some Japanese civilian launch vehicles can be easily and quickly converted into long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Also, the latest lithium-ion submarines of the Taigei type, which, according to rumors, will be able to strike ground targets for the first time in post-war history, can be converted into carriers of ballistic nuclear missiles.

What do we have in the dry residue? Japan already now has everything it needs to acquire its own nuclear arsenal, which means that Russia will lose its trump card in the form of the ability to unilaterally launch nuclear strikes against it. The exchange of "nuclear courtesies" will already be mutual, and Washington will be on the side of Tokyo. What does this mean in practice?

Only that the war for the Kuriles, if it does happen, will conducted by conventional means, and here the Japanese have a total advantage. That is why we urge you to do everything possible to increase the strength of the Russian Pacific Fleet as soon as possible, having ordered the construction of warships, corvettes and frigates in the PRC, as well as strengthening naval aviation, by all means restoring its missile-carrying component. It is necessary to prepare for the war that will be real, and not indulge in stupid fantasies about nuclear strikes on Tokyo.
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  1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 July 2022 11: 54
    It is necessary to prepare for the war that will be real, and not indulge in stupid fantasies about nuclear strikes on Tokyo.

    I completely agree. Stupid idea to hit only Tokyo. Only total destruction. Total. Simultaneous.

    to increase the strength of the Russian Pacific Fleet as soon as possible by ordering the construction of warships, corvettes and frigates in the PRC, as well as strengthening naval aviation, by all means restoring its missile-carrying component.

    In ten years, the Pacific Fleet will be able to butt heads with what Japan has now. But there is also the American navy and army.
    That is, it is proposed to do something that does not protect in any way. Even after ten years. And who promised that there are these ten years?
    1. skeptic Offline skeptic
      skeptic 5 July 2022 12: 58
      Quote: Expert_Analyst_Forecaster
      I completely agree. Stupid idea to hit only Tokyo.

      Completely agree, same. Only first you need to deal with the Anglo-Saxons ... And then, many problems will disappear, by themselves.
  2. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 July 2022 12: 04
    Japan can become a nuclear power in a few days.

    As soon as Japan gains access to nuclear weapons, it will be destroyed. And it does not matter whether there will be provocations on her part or not.
    Neither Russia nor China needs such a neighbor. Too close, too strong. And spit will be on the United States. For nuclear weapons can be made in Germany and Poland and South Africa and a couple of dozen other countries. This is a guaranteed nuclear war. Therefore, it is better to strike first than to wait until the enemies deploy production.
  3. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 July 2022 12: 19
    Another horror story. Stupid. To intimidate Russia with Japan's nuclear weapons so that ours begin to prepare for war with conventional weapons. Zero logic.

    Like if we order ships in China, then the nuclear threat from Japan will become less.
    Like someone promised that he would wait until Russia builds and trains the fleet.
    Like it makes sense to wait for a war only at sea.
    Like someone gave their word that the US and NATO will stay away.
    Like someone guaranteed that Russia would have a chance of success in a conventional war against Japan and NATO.
    Like someone swore that he would not use nuclear weapons against Russia in the event that she starts to win.

    The author proceeds from some fantastic assumptions. No, these are not at all stupid fantasies that some commentators write. This is just a manifestation of creative fertility in writing lyrics. 11 higher educations and 17 specialized secondary allow the author to write a lot and a lot. For which I am sincerely grateful to him. Almost every day I have something to read and enjoy writing.
    1. Yuriy88 Offline Yuriy88
      Yuriy88 (Yuri) 5 July 2022 16: 32
      well done! smeared ..!)) especially strongly about the number of "formations"! I also encountered this moment from the author))! Territory and densely populated beat all the Japans' trump cards! That's all.
  4. bobba94 Offline bobba94
    bobba94 (Vladimir) 5 July 2022 12: 23
    The article shows the alignment of the nuclear conflict between Russia and Japan - powerful self-defense forces, powerful economy, powerful allies. And I take the following alignment - the territory of Japan is 372 thousand square meters. km, this is the area of ​​\u362b\u2bthe Amur Region (125 thousand sq. Km or 780% of the entire area of ​​Russia). The population of Japan is XNUMX million people ..... The population of the Amur Region is XNUMX thousand people. An interesting exchange of nuclear strikes in such a nuclear conflict will turn out .....
  5. zenion Offline zenion
    zenion (zinovy) 5 July 2022 13: 26
    As soon as the exchange of nuclear packages begins, China will help finish off the country that will lose. Everything is very reminiscent of tsarism and its “best” manifestation in 1905 and the last breath of the royal balloon before bursting. They finished off their own kings. I wonder where he will be sent now, probably to Yekaterinburg. Where will the wagons with gold go? Along the previously laid route! Now they will not shoot, so as not to create a saint, probably hang him. History is spinning, how!
  6. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 5 July 2022 13: 28
    Japan may or may not become a nuclear power. Let's not guess. The Kuriles are not a military prize, but the return of Russian lands. Sakhalin, what do you think? The author, then, in your opinion, the island of Hokkaido is the prize of the Japanese, historically it is the territory of the Ainu, whom Japan destroyed as a people. The Japanese lived south on about. Honshu. The Ainu are the ancient masters of the Kuriles and the islands of the Japanese archipelago. In the East, the Chinese, Koreans, Vietnamese, Filipinos, etc. hate the Japanese, it's in the blood. In the event of war, the territory of Japan will be torn apart and the atomic bomb will not help.
    1. zenion Offline zenion
      zenion (zinovy) 5 July 2022 14: 17
      Japan will definitely become a nuclear power when they throw bombs at it, or send it as storks. They will have enough for a lifetime, who will remain. If they are now saying that it was the Russians who bombed them with a cannonball, then let it be true.
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 5 July 2022 14: 12
    Naturally, the media needs a more covert horror story.
    A nuclear war with Japan, an explosion of loaf nuclei in Kyiv, strikes on centers, orders for ships in China and on Mars ....
    Not about the fate of the ships ordered in Turkey and Korea, the rise in price of products, and the well-fed faces of the "elite" to write - it can fly from them.
  8. kalita Offline kalita
    kalita (Alexander) 5 July 2022 15: 06
    Japan is so small that one missile is enough to wipe it off the face of the earth.
  9. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
    Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 5 July 2022 15: 10
    Let's try to imagine how adequate are the calls to "gasp" for nuclear weapons, say, in Japan, as some of our unfortunate "experts" insistently suggest.

    - and here it is:

    The power imbalance is so glaring that, as soon as it becomes known, some self-proclaimed "analysts" begin to frantically demand a nuclear strike on Tokyo.

    Marzhetsky this time offended all the couch readers of this resource being exactly the same as all of us couch grief-"expert" and self-proclaimed "analyst". Seryoga, don't humiliate us! For example, I am a classic sofa expert and there is nothing wrong with that. My life experience is more abrupt than any parquet general. Rise above the rest by raising the rest! Sometimes you are carried ... and you begin to "carry a blizzard." And the fact that Japan suddenly acquires nuclear weapons does not mean that it can be guaranteed to deliver its own or US nuclear weapons to the territory of the Russian Federation by target designation. But the attempt will be counted automatically and the nuclear cranes of the world will fly to the Japs ...
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 5 July 2022 15: 17
      Sometimes you are carried ... and you begin to "carry a blizzard."

      In fairness, I will say that two or three articles were "normal".
      1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
        DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 9 July 2022 11: 51
        The key word was. And they swam.
  10. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 5 July 2022 17: 43
    Russia will not be able to balance the non-nuclear self-defense forces of Japan, this is a no brainer. But this is not necessary. Nuclear weapons, that's the Great Equalizer. Japan should know that in response to, say, a landing on the Kuril Islands, a nuclear response will arrive. And nuclear weapons will give little to Japan itself, the Russian TsPR are too far from Tokyo)
  11. Dmitry KK Offline Dmitry KK
    Dmitry KK (Dmitriy) 5 July 2022 18: 31
    A nuclear strike on Japan does not necessarily lead to a nuclear war between the United States and Russia. The hegemon is not the first time to throw his wards. To put your country under a nuclear attack because of some kind of Japan.? They want to destroy us without the slightest risk to themselves.
  12. Oleg Dmitriev Offline Oleg Dmitriev
    Oleg Dmitriev (Oleg Dmitriev) 5 July 2022 19: 42
    I propose such a solution. Since we will not defeat the Japs in the Pacific Theater of Operations with "conventional" weapons, since the use of nuclear weapons by us will cause an immediate massive nuclear strike from the United States on our cities in the European part of the country, let the United States be responsible for the Japs' policy towards the Kuriles. To announce to the whole world that in the event of Japan's aggression against the Kuriles, we will immediately, without declaring war, figure out everything that is nuclear on the territory of the United States. True, for this you need to have a certain reputation in the trash of frostbitten .... But we do not create this reputation for ourselves with our endless "three thousand last warnings" ....
    1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 6 July 2022 05: 57
      our use of nuclear weapons will trigger an immediate massive nuclear strike by the United States on our cities in the European part of the country

      A nuclear strike against Japan in the event of an attack on Russia is inevitable.
      This is known both in Japan and in the USA.
      Therefore, if the United States, which is the master of Japan, allows an attack on Russia, then it means that they agree to a nuclear war with Russia.
      For Russia, losing a certain number of warheads and carriers in Japan is completely uncritical.
      That is, the US gets a full-scale war with Russia.
      China will be happy.

      If you think logically, then the United States should be completely frostbitten in order to go for such a scenario. In my opinion, Japan will not go into any adventures. And the United States is not yet ready for an exchange of nuclear strikes with Russia.

      Therefore, our Far East can live quite calmly. And do not pay attention to provocateurs and alarmists.
  13. radvas Offline radvas
    radvas (Igor) 5 July 2022 20: 28
    At one time, Israel, without hesitation, hit Iran when it became known about the high enrichment of uranium in centrifuges there.
  14. antibi0tikk Offline antibi0tikk
    antibi0tikk (Sergei) 6 July 2022 08: 41
    Eh, not everything is as simple as it seems at first glance! Yes, and at a second glance it is even more difficult .....
    I propose to roll on 100 grams and soberly understand everything.
    Nuclear strikes from here and there, crowds of ships of various classes, Americans in Okinawa, landings on the Kuriles .... well, yes, there is all this. You should look a bit wider! It should, but it doesn't work. But it doesn’t work out for the simple reason that Russia is great, and Japan is just a group of islands. And the neighbors of these island perverts (sorry, the samurai have outlived their usefulness, there was more respect for them), in addition to the United States, there are also the Chinese, and the Koreans, and the Filipinos a little further away. The Chinese would not mind asking for World War II. So they also died robustly, according to some sources from 17 to 35 (!!!) million. Koreans (I'm talking about the South), although they watch Japanese films, are happy to grab Japanese hawka such as sushi and rolls, but they really do not like the Japanese historically! For the fact that the Japanese ruined the Korean royal dynasty. There is nothing to say about the North Koreans, and everything is clear. The northerners are already trolling the Japanese with regular Hwaseong launches.
    Something I got carried away, well Duc, that's what I'm all about. Well, the Japanese will rush to the Kuril Islands, not only the Kuril people will brush them off. No matter how nightmare our Pacific Fleet is, you can’t take it out with one blow, a lot of things will remain after the first sudden (and what else?) blow. And then the answer will fly back! And not necessarily nuclear. Let the Japanese have at least 100500 different ships, and at least let them drag the "death star" (although after the Ukrainians they stole the side mirrors and toilet bowls, the wipers do not work and the anti-freeze ends), all this multi-million dollar horde must be warmed, fed and watered. And if you cut off at least half of the way of supplying sweets and warmers, then the eyes of the narrow-eyed ones will expand a little, and the point will shrink a little. About assistants to help in this matter, I have already written above. And the Americans are so-so allies in this matter. Again they will stand aside and watch how the Japanese shag their grandmother. They have enough problems as it is. Self-propelled miracle-day with another dumb black man vocational instrumental, blm (I am of course not racist, but the monkey should live on a tree), Putin's inflation, mass executions ..... it became a pity for them .... I will go for the United States 100 grams of pumping ..... not clinking ....
    Well Duc, the ink is running out, let's take stock. Even if the Americans arrange a nix for us and in the Kuriles, it will not end in anything good for the Japanese. Hopeless! (Wow! And how did I write this word without errors after a glass of s2n5on ???) At least in a nuclear, at least in a non-nuclear version. Well, it will be, after this nix, Russia has 5 or 6 islands that the Japanese will claim, and the Japanese may very well be asked to leave the Americans so that they do not give advice.
  15. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 6 July 2022 14: 22
    Then Japan has all the prerequisites, and most importantly, the opportunity to acquire weapons of mass destruction, in China they say for more than a decade, but in the Russian Federation only after Japan imposed sanctions against the Russian Federation.
    1. DV tam 25 Offline DV tam 25
      DV tam 25 (DV tam 25) 9 July 2022 11: 58
      Japan had every opportunity to create nuclear weapons before. What hindered? It must be understood that the Japanese empire has sunk into oblivion (according to the totality of its directions). What Japan is now is a wonderful country, rich and poor at the same time (thanks to the American partners, especially for poverty), technologically advanced and simple to the point of primitiveness, with high achievements and crazy and decrepit traditions. Separately, it is worth mentioning about the people - hardworking, disciplined, modest in everyday life and happy in their own way. At the same time, he was notorious to the extreme, with which, apparently, he reconciled. And so what, but the Japanese will not fight. The Americans bred the samurai as a class. And they instilled in the Japanese a sense of immense gratitude (for what? For the fact that not everyone was burned?) In short, xx time has passed. And most likely will never return. They couldn't even sustain their economic miracle. True, one achievement still remains in Japan - these are their cars and lemonades. They are beautiful.
      Well, Mr. Marzhetsky's articles... they... they are like a wall newspaper in the eighth grade - bright and empty at the same time. And they start to get pissed off. As time goes by, data expands, understanding grows... I mean, it should. But ... Mr. Marzhetsky remained in the eighth grade).
  16. Indifferent Offline Indifferent
    Indifferent 6 July 2022 17: 13
    Ai ai ai! Japan will have as many as three nuclear bombs! So what? What's next? They will launch across Russia, destroy the air defense. But then this country will cease to exist! And they know about it! The author, there is nothing to write about, or what?
  17. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 6 July 2022 17: 23
    To build up military potential in the Far East - as the respected Author calls - the Russian Federation does not have the appropriate economic capabilities.
    The Kuriles will have to be given to Japan, as well as Damansky to China!
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 7 July 2022 08: 12
      I expected that the "patriots" would pounce on me for offering to give the Kuril Islands to an unfriendly Japan - as at one time they pounced on the late M. Zhvanetsky for such a proposal. But that did not happen.
      The author clearly exaggerated ... in the interests of the command of the Pacific Fleet of the Russian Federation.
      To risk the Third World War because of some patches of land - no one dares.
      But to think about the possibility of concessions to the disputed islands of Japan, in exchange for concessions on her part, and to sign a Peace Treaty - this is worth thinking about!
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Moray Boreas Offline Moray Boreas
        Moray Boreas (Morey Borey) 9 July 2022 08: 46
        You are a man with dislocated brains and a collapsed soul. The censorship system does not allow more traditional words.
        1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
          Michael L. 9 July 2022 18: 10
          Worthy people discuss publications, and unworthy ones: insult objectionable commentators, for lack of arguments.
          Thanks for the perverted compliment!
  18. Squid X Offline Squid X
    Squid X (Serg X) 10 July 2022 16: 55
    generally reasonable except for the last paragraph. Russia simply does not have the resources to match Japan in the regional TVD. the population is comparable, Japan's GDP is many times larger, it's better not to think about technology at all .. the stupidest thing you can do is to swell money into tof for the "Kuril problem". firstly, why do you need a fleet in the 21st century to defend land, even islands, when there is aviation and coastal anti-ship missiles. secondly, for any of our attempts, Japan will put up a fleet that is many times larger. thirdly, we will conserve a lot of money for a hypothetical conflict for the sake of a couple of islands, while having huge unsolved problems in other areas.
    my opinion is that Russia needs a powerful aviation group, both combat and transport, and a developed network of airfields for it. in case of problems, you can quickly transfer to any direction, even to the Kuril Islands, even to Ukraine. reduce fleet spending to the due 5-10% of the military budget, with emphasis on submarine forces, especially the new generation of submarines with limited displacement. large NCs are the most useless component of the sun, which is better to refuse.