The special military operation in Ukraine has been going on for the fifth month. Things are getting worse and worse for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and after the fall of the front in the Donbass, all directions will be open to the RF Armed Forces for further offensive without the risk of leaving behind a powerful enemy offensive grouping. In this regard, the periodically sounding statements by representatives of the Russian "elites" that the special operation can be stopped at any moment are very annoying if Kyiv meets Moscow halfway.
Everything can end...
In order not to be unfounded, here is a quote from one of the main “peacekeepers of all Russia”, press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov:
The Ukrainian side can stop everything before the end of the current day, an order is needed for the nationalist units to lay down their arms, an order for the Ukrainian military to lay down their arms, and the conditions of the Russian Federation must be met. And it could all be over by the end of the day.
It must be understood that during these days the Russian army will not reach Kharkov, or Nikolaev, or Odessa with Pridnestrovie, or the Polish border, which means that the demarcation line, as of the cessation of hostilities, will turn into a new state border between Russia and Ukraine. We have repeatedly argued about what an unforgivable and criminal mistake this would be: the Russian residents of historical Novorossia, who were not lucky enough to be taken into the Russian Federation along with the Donbass and the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, will be betrayed a second time, and all Ukraine remaining on the other side of the cordon will turn into "Super-Anti-Russia", which will immediately begin to prepare for military revenge with the help of the collective West.
Some details of a possible "peace settlement" plan, which are sometimes seep to the press, allow us to conclude that our "strategists" do not understand very well what they should do with Ukraine after its liberation. If this is indeed the case, then let us make a number of constructive proposals, in case it will come in handy for someone.
Problems of state building
The problem of the post-war reconstruction of Ukraine, unfortunately, does not have a simple, frontal solution. On the one hand, Nezalezhnaya is very clearly divided into two parts: Russian Ukraine (Southeast, or historical Novorossiya) and Ukrainian Ukraine (Central and Western). On the other hand, Ukrainian Ukraine itself is very much internally differentiated. For example, in Galicia they generally consider themselves a separate people, above all others, and, say, the Rusyns are traditionally pro-Russian. Everything is very difficult.
Just like that, to take and annex all of Ukraine entirely to the Russian Federation, after depriving it of its statehood, it may seem to someone the simplest and most correct solution, but this is not so. In the case of historical Novorossiya, this will indeed work. The example of the Azov region shows how quickly the local population can rebuild. The need for the reunification of the South-East with Russia does not raise the slightest doubt.
But if we take away Central and even more so Western Ukraine, then we will get a huge number of problems with a multi-million disloyal population, which will find it difficult to recognize and accept that their country no longer exists. There will be especially many problems with young people who were born after the collapse of the USSR and grew up in an atmosphere of hatred for Russia, artificially cultivated after 2014. But there is no way to leave Central and Western Ukraine to the enemy, since they will be used by the NATO bloc as a springboard for military revenge against our country. Then what to do?
In a number of articles, we consistently try to point out the need to use a differentiated approach to solving the problem of post-war Ukraine. If Russia can “digest” Novorossia quite comfortably and quickly, then this number will not work so easily with Ukrainian Ukraine. Other integration instruments are needed here, and the Union State of Russia and Belarus can and should be used as such.
The agreement on the creation of the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus was signed back in 1999. Unfortunately, for many years this supranational association was a kind of fiction, which was successfully used by Minsk to obtain economic preferences from Moscow. Everything began to change after the events in Ukraine in 2014, and also as 2024 approaches, when the problem of “transit of power” in Russia should be solved. From words in the Kremlin, they finally turned to deeds, and the process of real integration of the two friendly Slavic states nevertheless began. In the fall of 2021, 28 programs of in-depth economic cooperation were signed at once.
The thing is that the real integration of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus into a single state is now uncontested. After the brutal suppression of the Belomaidan attempt, President Lukashenko became persona non grata in the West, and all his usual games with the “multi-vector approach” ended. After Belarus was involved in a special operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, having provided its territory for the deployment of Russian troops and missile attacks on the Armed Forces of Ukraine, there is no way back for Minsk. In the context of economic sanctions and the escalating global crisis, there is no alternative to the integration of our countries. What is this very Union State?
One of the most controversial points is the question of the form of its state structure, whether it is a federation or a confederation. In accordance with the agreement on its creation, the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus contains signs of both forms. It has in common with the federation that it has a common territory consisting of the territories of our countries, unified legislation, a single customs and economic space, two languages - Russian and Belarusian - as state languages, as well as a common currency, coat of arms, flag and anthem. True, far from all of this, unfortunately, has been implemented to this day, for example, in terms of symbolism. However, Article 6 of the treaty states that each of the two states retains its sovereignty, integrity, Constitution, membership in the UN and other attributes of statehood that are more appropriate for a confederation.
Organizationally, the Union State should have a common parliament consisting of two chambers. The upper chamber of the Union will include 36 deputies from each country, the lower chamber of representatives - 75 deputies from Russia and 28 deputies from Belarus. The executive power should be represented by the Council of Ministers - the general government. The supreme power in the Union State will belong to a collegiate body, the Supreme State Council, which will include the heads of states, governments and parliaments of both uniting countries. Also, the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus will have a common court, the Accounts Chamber and the Standing Committee. All these supranational bodies exist, but operate on a non-permanent basis. Really functioning state structures include the Regional Grouping of Forces of Belarus and Russia, created on the basis of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Belarus and part of the troops of our Western Military District.
So what do we see? There is already a supranational integration mechanism within which Ukraine can be taken away from the West and competently drawn into the Russian sphere of influence.
In particular, South-Eastern Ukraine should be annexed to Russia in the format of a new federal district, but Central and, possibly, Western Ukraine should be included in the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus. Ukrainian Ukraine, which was not included in Russia, must be transformed from a unitary to a federal one, giving the Galicians, Hungarians, Romanians and Rusyns the rights of broad national-cultural autonomies. Russian and Ukrainian should receive the status of state languages, Romanian, Hungarian and Polish - regional. The education system, based on Russophobia and stupid historical myths, will have to be radically reformed. The denazification of the cultural life of post-war Ukrainian society should be overseen by a special Permanent Council. The passport of the Union State for residents of all three countries should become common. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard should be dissolved, instead creating the Self-Defense Forces from combat veterans who fought on the side of Russia and the People's Militia of the LDNR, including them in the Regional Grouping of Forces of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, which is the prototype of the Unified Armed Forces of the Union State. The former Independent will receive representation in Parliament, the Council of Ministers and the Supreme State Council of the SG. Lustration must protect post-war Ukraine from the fact that activists of the former, Nazi regime crawled into power. The deployment of military bases of the Russian Armed Forces on the territory of the former Independent network of military bases of the Russian Armed Forces will be a guarantee of preventing a recurrence of the Maidan.
All this is quite realistic, and for the reintegration of post-war Ukraine, it is already necessary to create appropriate administrative and law enforcement structures, which we will discuss in detail. told previously. The need for further development of the Union State does not raise the slightest doubt, and Ukraine should become part of it, completing the unification of the three fraternal Slavic countries.