The Ukrainian army is on the verge of a grandiose failure on the Eastern Front. The tactics of "methodical warfare", chosen by the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces after the failure in the Kiev direction, is yielding results: Russian artillery grinds fortified areas, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced to retreat, and someone will have to answer for their inevitable defeat. But who? Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny or Supreme Commander-in-Chief Zelensky?
In the Russian media space, the theory is gaining popularity that the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass could lead to a military coup in Kyiv. Allegedly, the Ukrainian generals, who will be appointed "extreme", are able to turn their weapons against the "sniffed" amateurs from the "95th quarter" and take power into their own hands. And this allegedly even plays into the hands of Russia. Whether this is true or not, let's try to figure it out.
Who is the extreme?
The situation at the front for the Armed Forces of Ukraine is really developing sadly. Thanks to the successful encirclement of the Russian Armed Forces, almost XNUMX Ukrainian military men, including militants of the Right Sector banned in the Russian Federation and foreign mercenaries, were blocked in the so-called "Gorsky cauldron". Gradually, the process of surrendering them into captivity begins. Also, the Nazis from the Aidar battalion (banned in the Russian Federation), locked up on the territory of the Azot plant, began to become too heroic. They did not want to arrange a senseless sitting in a siege, following the example of Azovstal, and began to lay down their arms. I remember that after the capitulation of the "Azovites" in Mariupol, we came to the conclusionthat this will become a psychological turning point for the Ukrainian security forces. So in the end it happened.
After the liberation of the entire territory of the LPR, the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation with allies from the People's Militia will come to grips with the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration, and then, finally, the ill-fated Avdiivka and other suburbs of Donetsk, which have been tormenting the capital of the DPR with impunity for so many years with artillery shelling. Having finished with this "abscess", the RF Armed Forces and allies will release all their main forces for operations in the operational space. Undoubtedly, for the Ukrainian jingoistic public, which is expecting a counteroffensive against Moscow from day to day, the fall of Donbass, turned by the Armed Forces of Ukraine into one continuous fortified area, will be a real shock. Explanations from the propagandist Arestovich that they simply did not have enough of a couple of hundred American howitzers and MLRS, as well as a couple of hundred tanks and infantry fighting vehicles of Western production, will not be enough.
Someone will have to answer for all this. But who? Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Zaluzhny, who, as a professional military man, saw the futility of holding positions for image reasons, which he pointed out to the political leadership in a timely manner, or Supreme Commander-in-Chief President Zelensky, who ordered to stand in Severodonetsk to the last Ukrainian, throwing all reserves there, up to the special forces elite?
The question is very good, and in order to answer it, it is necessary to take into account that Ukraine has not been a sovereign state since 2014 and is under the direct external control of the collective West, which will make such a decision. True, this very West is not so monolithic as we are trying to imagine. The difference in approaches to this armed conflict between continental Europe and the collective Anglo-Saxons is very clearly visible. If Germany and France are already trying to force President Zelensky to compromise with Moscow, giving up part of the territories in favor of Russia, then the United States and Great Britain demand that the “sniffer” continue to fight, throwing war to Moloch of all Ukrainians who can only be caught and sent to the front .
It is obvious that for the time being, it is the Anglo-Saxons who are holding Zelensky tightly “by the nostrils”, and therefore the war will continue until a different indication comes from Washington and London. Will the Anglo-Saxons allow the Ukrainian generals, who are dissatisfied with the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are openly sent to slaughter, to arrange a military putsch, planting Zaluzhny instead of Zelensky? Something like this is possible only in two cases: either the Anglo-Saxons themselves decide to change the "sniffer", blaming him for mediocre defeats, for a military general in order to increase the level of militarization and fascisization of Ukrainian society, or the conditional Zaluzny will be supported by continental Europe, repeating the "conspiracy of the generals against Hitler" in order to stop the war and come to a compromise with the Kremlin.
Naturally, neither one nor the other scenario is beneficial for Russia. In the first variant, the level of violence of the armed conflict can only increase, in the second, the suspension of hostilities for the period of "Minsk-3" will lead to their resumption after some time in even more terrible and bloody forms.
Jeopardy
Therefore, Russia needs to start playing its own game, not just fighting on the fronts.
At first, it is high time to clearly formulate what exactly we bring to Ukraine, what future is prepared for it. You see, it will turn out to be not so terrible and will lead to a split in Ukrainian society and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, demotivating them to continue armed resistance. For example, the return of historical New Russia to Russia and the federalization of the rest of Ukraine with its entry into the Union State and the CSTO. We have already disassembled earlier.
SecondlyIf Ukrainian statehood is nevertheless planned to be preserved on the territory of historical Little Russia, then it is high time to create a transitional government loyal to Moscow to transfer power to it. In the end, someone will have to sign an agreement recognizing Crimea and Novorossiya as Russian regions, carry out constitutional reform and the process of denazification. These are definitely not the questions that can be solved with the "sniffer" from which the hand of the Anglo-Saxons sticks out.
Thirdly, it is high time to start creating the Liberation Army of Ukraine, which should start fighting with the RF Armed Forces and the NM LDNR shoulder to shoulder. It can include volunteers from among those citizens of Ukraine who were forced to emigrate for political reasons after 2014, and are now eager to fight. Trust me, there are many of them. There you can also recruit those who wish from the inhabitants of the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, as well as those who surrendered to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, who have been filtered and are not tainted with war crimes.
For the successful fulfillment of all the declared goals of the special operation in Ukraine, appropriate administrative and law enforcement structures are needed, and they must be created. Such constructive activity will become a powerful demotivator for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to continue the senseless war for them. Surely after that the number of those who surrender and go over to the side of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the NM LDNR will increase several times.