Swedish expert predicted Russia's defeat in the Baltic


About the difficult geopolitical situation associated with the position of the Kaliningrad region of the Russian Federation, which is almost completely surrounded by NATO countries, writes the analytical site GIS Reports (Liechtenstein). An article written by Stefan Hedlund, a Swedish expert on Russia and the post-Soviet space, argues that as NATO forces strengthen in the Baltic, the military importance of Kaliningrad for the Russian Federation will decrease*.


This situation will become especially relevant after the accession of Stockholm and Helsinki to the alliance.

Russia has long considered both countries - Sweden and Finland - de facto members of NATO, admitting that, despite their neutral status, the troops of NATO countries could still "come to the aid" of the Baltic states through the territory of the northerners.

However, if the countries become full-fledged members of the alliance, then a lot will change for the Russian Federation. Thus, Mr. Hedlund notes the fact that with the presence of NATO troops in Finland, "Russian rear areas will be dangerously exposed to missile and artillery attacks."

The Swedish and Finnish Air Forces, now having extensive experience in joint operations, could create a serious problem for Russian aviation. And an important circumstance is that the Swedish fleet has advanced submarines capable of quickly taking on the dual task of suppressing any Russian resistance at sea and of mining the approaches to St. Petersburg, including the Russian naval base in Kronstadt.

– pointed out a Swedish specialist from Uppsala University.

He writes that the "strengthening of NATO's ability to defend Estonia and Latvia," assumed in his forecast, will significantly reduce the importance of Kaliningrad for the Russian Federation.

While this would discourage Russian strategists from investing further to keep it up to par, the presence of a garrison there will remain an important factor. It will maintain its strategic position in the southern part of the Baltic Sea with the ability to deliver nuclear missile strikes against Warsaw.

Mr. Hedlund further suggests.

In addition, the author openly reflects that the importance of Kaliningrad would have fallen even more if "Belarus had switched sides." In this case, the "Suwalki corridor" will cease to have any meaning.

In addition, the Swedish author predicts "degradation" of the Kaliningrad region not only in the military, but also in the economic sense, because the sanctions will make it difficult to import by land, and the region will have to rely only on merchant shipping.

*The article is titled Scenarios for Russia's strategic Kaliningrad exclave.
  • Photos used: Swedish Ministry of Defense
20 comments
Information
Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.
  1. Gadley Offline Gadley
    Gadley 24 June 2022 15: 04
    +1
    Poltava for the Swedes can be repeated.
  2. zzdimk Online zzdimk
    zzdimk 24 June 2022 15: 13
    +4
    Very strange analytics from the Swede. More like boltology.
  3. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 24 June 2022 15: 15
    +3
    Putin told you:

    Why do we need a world in which there will be no Russia.

    So believe that if we start, suddenly, to lose, we will destroy you all nuclear weapons. We can lose in the very last turn, only when you are no longer there. But even when you are no longer there, we will have Siberia. So lose we can’t do it for all of you in principle. Yes, and our pain threshold is ten times higher. We will survive in a padded jacket by a fire in the taiga, sharing a piece with a bear. And you will die in a cold toilet without coffee, water and toilet paper.
  4. faiver Offline faiver
    faiver (Andrei) 24 June 2022 15: 25
    +1
    Swedish expert i.dio.t?
  5. FGJCNJK Offline FGJCNJK
    FGJCNJK (Nikolai) 24 June 2022 15: 33
    +1
    Especially for the Swedish AdiYotoff - nothing prevents them from hitting in response to mining, with a couple of Calibers at this Swedish base of "advanced" submarines.
  6. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 24 June 2022 15: 43
    +1
    It will maintain its strategic position in the southern part of the Baltic Sea with the ability to deliver nuclear missile strikes against Warsaw.

    And what did this "expert" forget about Helsinki and Stockholm? After the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO, these countries become the target of a missile attack. And with any warhead. And there are a lot of missiles in Russia. Ukraine can confirm.
  7. rotkiv04 Online rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 24 June 2022 15: 51
    +1
    We also have such iksperds, lovers of nonsense, even a dime a dozen
  8. Denis Z Offline Denis Z
    Denis Z (Denis Z) 24 June 2022 15: 51
    +3
    It seems that Marzhetsky found a brother in Sweden)) One imagines the victory of Japan, the other - Sweden
    1. rotkiv04 Online rotkiv04
      rotkiv04 (Victor) 24 June 2022 15: 56
      +3
      As for Marzhetsky, you wouldn’t say that, much of what he wrote was close to the truth, as time has shown. For example, at a time when many were sure that the Ukronats would be blown away in a couple of weeks, he said that this was not at all the case and the confrontation would be tough and bloody, which in the end we see
  9. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 24 June 2022 17: 07
    0
    Does the expert know about Russian nuclear weapons?
  10. Pavel Mokshanov_2 (Pavel Mokshanov) 24 June 2022 17: 44
    0
    Entot Swede smoked too much and got excited. A couple of calibers for their Stockholm and all the "Swedish families" will instantly become a normal orientation.
  11. ALEXANDER UNKNOWN 24 June 2022 17: 54
    +1
    Russian rear areas will be dangerously exposed to rocket and artillery strikes

    Is the option of a dangerous nuclear strike on NATO territories not being considered?
  12. Zubkov61 Offline Zubkov61
    Zubkov61 (Eduard Zubkov) 24 June 2022 19: 52
    +1
    He puffed herbs, called the spirit of Charles XII at a seance and the expert suffered. Nothing came to the European dabils. Okay, there will be a surprise.
  13. aslanxnumx Offline aslanxnumx
    aslanxnumx (Aslan) 25 June 2022 10: 04
    +1
    The reasoning of this Swede is similar to some of the statements of our deputies of the State Duma and the Federation Council.
  14. soloist2424 Offline soloist2424
    soloist2424 (Oleg) 25 June 2022 11: 10
    0
    In addition, the author openly reflects that the importance of Kaliningrad would have fallen even more if "Belarus had switched sides." And even more NATO would help the help of aliens. Not an analyst, but a talker.
  15. Geo73 Offline Geo73
    Geo73 (George) 25 June 2022 12: 27
    0
    The author is smart, but not very smart, it only happens smoothly on paper
  16. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 25 June 2022 19: 32
    0
    Swedish so-called. the expert is a complete idiot.
  17. Igor Pochkin Offline Igor Pochkin
    Igor Pochkin (Igor Pochkin) 26 June 2022 00: 41
    0
    As soon as Finland or Sweden lose their neutral status, for example:
    join NATO, Finland will lose the Åland Islands. Russia will simply be obliged to militarize them.
  18. Victor Du Offline Victor Du
    Victor Du (Victor) 26 June 2022 09: 10
    0
    With the blockade of the Kaliningrad region that has begun (?), we will move on to a qualitatively different way of protecting our interests. For example, we will not need to go to sea for protection. It is enough to launch a volley of nuclear munitions at the capitals of enemy states in Europe from the bases. It is important to do this massively and first.
  19. shinobi Offline shinobi
    shinobi (Yuri) 27 June 2022 16: 09
    0
    Well, yes, of course. Once they won. Sheep. Their history does not teach anything. In intracontinental wars, the fleet and inland seas do not play any role at all.