What the Syrian theater prepares for us
September 30 marks exactly three years since the entry of the Russian Federation into the Syrian military campaign. It's time to take some intermediate results. This operation was the first in the history of post-Soviet Russia when Russian forces took part in hostilities outside the territory limited by the CIS contour.
As the authoritative American magazine Military Review points out, the Russian armed forces entered the Syrian conflict at the height of their ongoing modernization and large-scale reforms in the army. They had to conduct combat work in a remote theater of operations with a lack of experience in expeditionary operations, in the face of limited opportunities for long-distance supply, provision and use of local infrastructure. The main goal set for a limited contingent of Russian troops deployed in the SAR was to solve the task without involving the Russian Federation in a long-term campaign, especially given the bad experience of Western countries during such expeditionary campaigns in the Middle East and their own sad experience of the Afghan war, in which the USSR was bogged down for the whole 10 years.
Three years later, it can be stated that most of the goals set for the limited contingent of Russian troops have been achieved. Even American experts believe that Russia's entry into the conflict has radically changed the direction and nature of military operations. By the beginning of 2018, it became obvious to everyone that the pro-Russian coalition (SAR, Iran, Hezbollah and various local militias) had fulfilled the main goals set for itself. Most of the territory of Syria (almost 95%) was liberated from the militants and the main task assigned to them was solved - the Assad regime survived. This military success led to the achievement political advantages and the establishment of a political agreement on the terms of the Russian Federation. In addition to this, other parties to the conflict - Turkey and Saudi Arabia - became convinced of the futility of participation in the war of the groups sponsored by them, and the United States was forced to forget about its intention to change the power of President Assad. And this is the main intermediate goal achieved by the Russian Federation at the moment, incomparably small in comparison with its opponents in opposing forces.
Losses according to the Federation Council of the Russian Federation as of October 1 of this year amounted to 122 people. The Russian Aerospace Forces group suffered the following losses in the flight crew and technology: 24 Su-2 bombers (one shot down by a Turkish fighter, 1 pilot died, was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation, another plane crashed when taking off at the Khmeimim airbase, both pilots died), 25 Su-1 attack aircraft (shot down from MANPADS , the pilot died, was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation), two carrier-based fighters included in the Admiral Kuznetsov TAVRK air group, Su-33 - 1 unit and MiG-29KUB - 1 unit (landing accidents, both pilots saved), military transport An-26 - 1 pc (crash during landing, 39 people were killed), Su-30SM fighter - 1 pc (bird hit the engine, both pilots died), Il-20 radio reconnaissance plane - 1 pc (shot down by friendly fire during landing , 15 people died). The losses on helicopters are as follows: Mi-8 - 2 units (one shot down from MANPADS, 5 people died, the other destroyed on the ground, 1 Marine died), Mi-24 - 2 units (one shot down from MANPADS, both pilots died, were posthumously presented to the Order of Courage, commander with the rank of Hero of the Russian Federation, another helicopter crashed as a result of a technical malfunction, 2 people died), Ka-52 - 1 pc (the reason is not established, both pilots, fighting for the survivability of the vessel, died), Mi-28 - 2 pieces (in both cases technical malfunction, 4 people died). I’m not even reporting the enemy’s losses, they are not comparable.
This, so to speak, is the surface part of the iceberg, but what about under water? After the start of the operation of the Russian air forces in Syria, Russian President Putin announced two tasks of this operation: 1) the fight against international terrorism, its utilization at the far approaches to the Russian Federation, without waiting for it to come to us, and 2) the preservation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria . At the same time, Putin considered a certain time frame for this operation. Three years later, everyone, even critics of Russia, was forced to admit that this operation was very successful, but they did not fail to notice that with the utilization of terrorism at distant approaches, not everything is so smooth. As a result of agreements with militant leaders for the bloodless liberation of certain territories, the advancing SAA troops (Syrian Arab army, Assad army), together with the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah allowed the withdrawal of militants, even with weapons, to other territories. Some of them, the most irreconcilable, thus ended up in Idlib, another part, the most combat-ready, personally selected by the Americans, surfaced in Afghanistan and Iraq through their efforts, and these are the closest approaches to the Russian Federation. If this is a victory, our spiteful critics ask, then what is defeat ?! Terrorists are already in the southern underbelly of the Russian Federation. Task number 1 is not completed!
It is hard to argue with the obvious. Everything seems to be bad? But this is how to look. Let’s look at it through Putin’s eyes. The main tasks that the Russian Federation solved in the SAR were not the rout and utilization of ISIS on its territory and not a small victorious war in order to wipe America’s nose, as some “experts” suggest. The RF has never set such tasks for itself. The main task was not to defeat ISIS, but to make the defeat of Assad impossible. Feel the difference ?! Mission accomplished. And it is a fact!
For those who want to argue, I'll just give you some numbers. On August 22, 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a video report on the results of the operation of the RF Armed Forces in Syria. According to the voiced data, as a result of Russian attacks on terrorists, more than 86 thousand militants were killed from the beginning of the operation, of which 830 were leaders of gangs, including 4,5 thousand immigrants from Russia and the CIS countries. Also, according to the Ministry of Defense, 121 terrorist targets were destroyed as a result of air strikes and cruise missiles, including 466 field camps, 970 20 strong points, 513 9 ammunition and fuels and lubricants depot, 941 tanks, 649 infantry fighting vehicles, 731 8 anti-aircraft vehicles. You are not enough ?!
To whom it is not enough, I propose to recall what disposition was in the SAR before the entry of the Russian Federation there. I remind you for those who forgot - at that time, as of September 2015, the anti-Ghilean coalition from 40 countries led by the United States had unsuccessfully fought ISIS, but in fact, under the guise of fighting ISIS, it successfully fought with the Assad regime. So successful that before his death there were only a few months and all the parties involved in this, from the Turks and Saudis to the Americans and Kurds, already carnivorously clicked their teeth in anticipation of an early prey.
Joining the Russian campaign on Assad’s side dramatically changed the situation on the chessboard - one blitz operation was enough for Putin to demolish all the players who set the chess table there and claim that Russia was regaining its lost influence zones. At the same time, it was obvious that the Russian Federation was not going to stop there, but would continue to expand them into zones that were not previously. What is happening now. The balance of power in the Middle East is changing, slowly but surely there is a replacement of American influence by Russian.
I already said above about the preferences received by Assad, now I would like to dwell in more detail on the preferences received by Russia. And they are like that. As a result of this difficult operation, the Russian Federation solved its main task - it broke the international isolation that developed around it, reduced the degree of interest in the events in Ukraine, forced the States to return to direct contacts (and not only at the level of military headquarters), and radically changed the balance of forces around Syria and the Middle East as a whole. The Syrian operation was the starting point from which the Russian Federation began to restore its former influence when the USSR was on the world stage, returning to the highest world political league. The remaining preferences, such as the dismantling of the IS, the preservation of the Assad regime, the running-in of the latest Russian weapons on a real theater of war, and the increase in the combat readiness of the troops here were already secondary, although not unimportant.
And if you take into account which war the Russian Federation got involved in, then its success can be safely multiplied by two. Because in Syria we did not encounter a conventional war, but a classic proxy war with foreign participation. Where everyone is fighting against everyone, where there are no constant friends and enemies, where the interests of the parties are so intertwined that a step cannot be taken so as not to step on anyone's interests. To make you understand, the situation was more like a layer cake. We are fighting for Assad against ISIS and the SSA (the SSA is a “moderate”, so to speak, armed anti-Assad opposition, supported by the USA, the Syrian Free Army), Iran and our proxy allies in the person of Hezbollah’s units support us in this, and Turkey, and even Israel, is our ally in this, and even greater than the unreliable Turks. But Israel has its own interests there - it fights in the territory of the SAR against Iran, its pro-Iranian groups and Hezbollah’s detachments, which are its worst enemies and whose strengthening in Syria, adjacent to the northern border of Israel, it cannot allow. Turkey, while fighting for us, is also fighting against it, because it supports the units of the Syrian Turkoman (or Turkmens in our country) ethnically close to themselves, who are fighting as part of the FSA, against Assad, while it also fights against the Syrian Kurds, united in the "People’s Squads Self Defense, ”which America supports. But Turkey is sneezing into America, it cannot allow the unification of the Syrian Kurds from the SDS with their Turkish counterparts from the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) with the prospect of creating a single Kurdish enclave that risks becoming a state (at least, such a goal was proclaimed by its leaders). And I still do not say anything about the Americans who pursued their own interests there, and the Gulf countries that support and finance ISIS. There were 40 countries in the US-led anti-Ghilel coalition, and if the Gulf countries are at least clear, then what do the British, French and Danes forget, I honestly don’t know? But, nevertheless, this war is drawing to a close and the question of the winner in it has already been resolved.
However, the crisis in Idlib, the last stronghold of the militants, is not resolved, but simply delayed, the chem. the attack "of white helmets is still carried forward, but not canceled, in which case the Americans can easily revive it if we try to throw them out of there again, and the balance of power on the Syrian theater is not in our favor, (among the Americans and the united coalition a real advantage in both hardware and logistics, our escalation capabilities on a remote theater are extremely limited, and so far we are winning only on land and only due to maneuver and more flexible diplomacy). At the moment, having concluded a separate agreement with the Sultan on the separation of the warring parties in the province of Idlib and thus avoiding our unnecessary confrontation with world hegemon, when the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea became already crowded from our and US-Allied ships, and the need for staged chem. the attack of the “white helmets” fell away as unnecessary, Putin did not allow, but only froze this conflict. Idlib is still in doubt.
What will happen tomorrow, let's see. While we are withdrawing part of the ships from the group assembled there, on October 2, two small missile ships of the Russian Navy Grad Sviyazhsk and Veliky Ustyug left the Mediterranean Sea and began to pass the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, returning to their permanent posts in Sevastopol. But Trump only strengthens his naval presence there. On September 13, the USS Bulkeley destroyer equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles entered the Mediterranean Sea. This is the fourth destroyer of this class. There are currently three more such US Navy destroyers in the waters of the Mediterranean: Carney, Ross, and Winston S. Churchill. They are also equipped with the KR “Tomahawk”. And I still don’t say anything about the 5th and 6th fleets of the US Navy deployed in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea on an ongoing basis, and this is one or two AUGs (aircraft-carrying strike groups). In addition, on September 4, the US Navy's Newport News, a Los Angeles-class strike multipurpose nuclear submarine, also equipped with Tomahawks, also went to the Syrian coast. Trump has nowhere to retreat - he has November 6 midterm congressional elections. Without the Tomahawks, it seems, not to win. Will watch…
As the authoritative American magazine Military Review points out, the Russian armed forces entered the Syrian conflict at the height of their ongoing modernization and large-scale reforms in the army. They had to conduct combat work in a remote theater of operations with a lack of experience in expeditionary operations, in the face of limited opportunities for long-distance supply, provision and use of local infrastructure. The main goal set for a limited contingent of Russian troops deployed in the SAR was to solve the task without involving the Russian Federation in a long-term campaign, especially given the bad experience of Western countries during such expeditionary campaigns in the Middle East and their own sad experience of the Afghan war, in which the USSR was bogged down for the whole 10 years.
Three years later, it can be stated that most of the goals set for the limited contingent of Russian troops have been achieved. Even American experts believe that Russia's entry into the conflict has radically changed the direction and nature of military operations. By the beginning of 2018, it became obvious to everyone that the pro-Russian coalition (SAR, Iran, Hezbollah and various local militias) had fulfilled the main goals set for itself. Most of the territory of Syria (almost 95%) was liberated from the militants and the main task assigned to them was solved - the Assad regime survived. This military success led to the achievement political advantages and the establishment of a political agreement on the terms of the Russian Federation. In addition to this, other parties to the conflict - Turkey and Saudi Arabia - became convinced of the futility of participation in the war of the groups sponsored by them, and the United States was forced to forget about its intention to change the power of President Assad. And this is the main intermediate goal achieved by the Russian Federation at the moment, incomparably small in comparison with its opponents in opposing forces.
Losses according to the Federation Council of the Russian Federation as of October 1 of this year amounted to 122 people. The Russian Aerospace Forces group suffered the following losses in the flight crew and technology: 24 Su-2 bombers (one shot down by a Turkish fighter, 1 pilot died, was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation, another plane crashed when taking off at the Khmeimim airbase, both pilots died), 25 Su-1 attack aircraft (shot down from MANPADS , the pilot died, was posthumously awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation), two carrier-based fighters included in the Admiral Kuznetsov TAVRK air group, Su-33 - 1 unit and MiG-29KUB - 1 unit (landing accidents, both pilots saved), military transport An-26 - 1 pc (crash during landing, 39 people were killed), Su-30SM fighter - 1 pc (bird hit the engine, both pilots died), Il-20 radio reconnaissance plane - 1 pc (shot down by friendly fire during landing , 15 people died). The losses on helicopters are as follows: Mi-8 - 2 units (one shot down from MANPADS, 5 people died, the other destroyed on the ground, 1 Marine died), Mi-24 - 2 units (one shot down from MANPADS, both pilots died, were posthumously presented to the Order of Courage, commander with the rank of Hero of the Russian Federation, another helicopter crashed as a result of a technical malfunction, 2 people died), Ka-52 - 1 pc (the reason is not established, both pilots, fighting for the survivability of the vessel, died), Mi-28 - 2 pieces (in both cases technical malfunction, 4 people died). I’m not even reporting the enemy’s losses, they are not comparable.
This, so to speak, is the surface part of the iceberg, but what about under water? After the start of the operation of the Russian air forces in Syria, Russian President Putin announced two tasks of this operation: 1) the fight against international terrorism, its utilization at the far approaches to the Russian Federation, without waiting for it to come to us, and 2) the preservation of the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Syria . At the same time, Putin considered a certain time frame for this operation. Three years later, everyone, even critics of Russia, was forced to admit that this operation was very successful, but they did not fail to notice that with the utilization of terrorism at distant approaches, not everything is so smooth. As a result of agreements with militant leaders for the bloodless liberation of certain territories, the advancing SAA troops (Syrian Arab army, Assad army), together with the Iranian IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) and the pro-Iranian Hezbollah allowed the withdrawal of militants, even with weapons, to other territories. Some of them, the most irreconcilable, thus ended up in Idlib, another part, the most combat-ready, personally selected by the Americans, surfaced in Afghanistan and Iraq through their efforts, and these are the closest approaches to the Russian Federation. If this is a victory, our spiteful critics ask, then what is defeat ?! Terrorists are already in the southern underbelly of the Russian Federation. Task number 1 is not completed!
It is hard to argue with the obvious. Everything seems to be bad? But this is how to look. Let’s look at it through Putin’s eyes. The main tasks that the Russian Federation solved in the SAR were not the rout and utilization of ISIS on its territory and not a small victorious war in order to wipe America’s nose, as some “experts” suggest. The RF has never set such tasks for itself. The main task was not to defeat ISIS, but to make the defeat of Assad impossible. Feel the difference ?! Mission accomplished. And it is a fact!
For those who want to argue, I'll just give you some numbers. On August 22, 2018, the Russian Ministry of Defense published a video report on the results of the operation of the RF Armed Forces in Syria. According to the voiced data, as a result of Russian attacks on terrorists, more than 86 thousand militants were killed from the beginning of the operation, of which 830 were leaders of gangs, including 4,5 thousand immigrants from Russia and the CIS countries. Also, according to the Ministry of Defense, 121 terrorist targets were destroyed as a result of air strikes and cruise missiles, including 466 field camps, 970 20 strong points, 513 9 ammunition and fuels and lubricants depot, 941 tanks, 649 infantry fighting vehicles, 731 8 anti-aircraft vehicles. You are not enough ?!
To whom it is not enough, I propose to recall what disposition was in the SAR before the entry of the Russian Federation there. I remind you for those who forgot - at that time, as of September 2015, the anti-Ghilean coalition from 40 countries led by the United States had unsuccessfully fought ISIS, but in fact, under the guise of fighting ISIS, it successfully fought with the Assad regime. So successful that before his death there were only a few months and all the parties involved in this, from the Turks and Saudis to the Americans and Kurds, already carnivorously clicked their teeth in anticipation of an early prey.
Joining the Russian campaign on Assad’s side dramatically changed the situation on the chessboard - one blitz operation was enough for Putin to demolish all the players who set the chess table there and claim that Russia was regaining its lost influence zones. At the same time, it was obvious that the Russian Federation was not going to stop there, but would continue to expand them into zones that were not previously. What is happening now. The balance of power in the Middle East is changing, slowly but surely there is a replacement of American influence by Russian.
I already said above about the preferences received by Assad, now I would like to dwell in more detail on the preferences received by Russia. And they are like that. As a result of this difficult operation, the Russian Federation solved its main task - it broke the international isolation that developed around it, reduced the degree of interest in the events in Ukraine, forced the States to return to direct contacts (and not only at the level of military headquarters), and radically changed the balance of forces around Syria and the Middle East as a whole. The Syrian operation was the starting point from which the Russian Federation began to restore its former influence when the USSR was on the world stage, returning to the highest world political league. The remaining preferences, such as the dismantling of the IS, the preservation of the Assad regime, the running-in of the latest Russian weapons on a real theater of war, and the increase in the combat readiness of the troops here were already secondary, although not unimportant.
And if you take into account which war the Russian Federation got involved in, then its success can be safely multiplied by two. Because in Syria we did not encounter a conventional war, but a classic proxy war with foreign participation. Where everyone is fighting against everyone, where there are no constant friends and enemies, where the interests of the parties are so intertwined that a step cannot be taken so as not to step on anyone's interests. To make you understand, the situation was more like a layer cake. We are fighting for Assad against ISIS and the SSA (the SSA is a “moderate”, so to speak, armed anti-Assad opposition, supported by the USA, the Syrian Free Army), Iran and our proxy allies in the person of Hezbollah’s units support us in this, and Turkey, and even Israel, is our ally in this, and even greater than the unreliable Turks. But Israel has its own interests there - it fights in the territory of the SAR against Iran, its pro-Iranian groups and Hezbollah’s detachments, which are its worst enemies and whose strengthening in Syria, adjacent to the northern border of Israel, it cannot allow. Turkey, while fighting for us, is also fighting against it, because it supports the units of the Syrian Turkoman (or Turkmens in our country) ethnically close to themselves, who are fighting as part of the FSA, against Assad, while it also fights against the Syrian Kurds, united in the "People’s Squads Self Defense, ”which America supports. But Turkey is sneezing into America, it cannot allow the unification of the Syrian Kurds from the SDS with their Turkish counterparts from the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) with the prospect of creating a single Kurdish enclave that risks becoming a state (at least, such a goal was proclaimed by its leaders). And I still do not say anything about the Americans who pursued their own interests there, and the Gulf countries that support and finance ISIS. There were 40 countries in the US-led anti-Ghilel coalition, and if the Gulf countries are at least clear, then what do the British, French and Danes forget, I honestly don’t know? But, nevertheless, this war is drawing to a close and the question of the winner in it has already been resolved.
However, the crisis in Idlib, the last stronghold of the militants, is not resolved, but simply delayed, the chem. the attack "of white helmets is still carried forward, but not canceled, in which case the Americans can easily revive it if we try to throw them out of there again, and the balance of power on the Syrian theater is not in our favor, (among the Americans and the united coalition a real advantage in both hardware and logistics, our escalation capabilities on a remote theater are extremely limited, and so far we are winning only on land and only due to maneuver and more flexible diplomacy). At the moment, having concluded a separate agreement with the Sultan on the separation of the warring parties in the province of Idlib and thus avoiding our unnecessary confrontation with world hegemon, when the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea became already crowded from our and US-Allied ships, and the need for staged chem. the attack of the “white helmets” fell away as unnecessary, Putin did not allow, but only froze this conflict. Idlib is still in doubt.
What will happen tomorrow, let's see. While we are withdrawing part of the ships from the group assembled there, on October 2, two small missile ships of the Russian Navy Grad Sviyazhsk and Veliky Ustyug left the Mediterranean Sea and began to pass the Bosphorus and Dardanelles, returning to their permanent posts in Sevastopol. But Trump only strengthens his naval presence there. On September 13, the USS Bulkeley destroyer equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles entered the Mediterranean Sea. This is the fourth destroyer of this class. There are currently three more such US Navy destroyers in the waters of the Mediterranean: Carney, Ross, and Winston S. Churchill. They are also equipped with the KR “Tomahawk”. And I still don’t say anything about the 5th and 6th fleets of the US Navy deployed in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea on an ongoing basis, and this is one or two AUGs (aircraft-carrying strike groups). In addition, on September 4, the US Navy's Newport News, a Los Angeles-class strike multipurpose nuclear submarine, also equipped with Tomahawks, also went to the Syrian coast. Trump has nowhere to retreat - he has November 6 midterm congressional elections. Without the Tomahawks, it seems, not to win. Will watch…
- Vladimir Volkonsky
- http://achtungpartisanen.ru/
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