emergency situation, caused by massive terrorist shelling of Donetsk, forced the head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, to seek military assistance from Russia, which was promised to him. If you look at the comments on similar news, it is clear that many people sincerely do not understand why, as some authors suggest, aviation is not used against Avdiivka, Marinka and Peski, where the artillerymen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have settled, which is capable of leveling them to the ground. Why is this happening and will heavy concrete-piercing bombs fall on the heads of Ukrainian terrorists shelling the capital of the DPR?
Bombing Avdiivka from the air seems to be the simplest and most logical solution, but it has its downside.
At first, over the past 8 years, this suburb of Donetsk has been turned into a continuous fortified area, filled with layers of reinforced concrete. It is unrealistic to destroy these numerous bunkers and bunkers with the firepower of the artillery and tanks of the People's Militia of the DPR.
Secondly, it is there, in the suburbs of the capital of the DPR, that the most combat-ready forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard of Ukraine are concentrated, in particular the 25th airborne brigade of the Airborne Forces. The total number of the Avdiivka garrison is estimated, according to some sources, at 30-40 thousand people. These are professional soldiers who, since 2014-2015, have been trained for a “blitzkrieg” to capture Donetsk and conduct urban battles in residential areas. They use a very competent tactic of conducting artillery shelling of the neighboring metropolis: they roll out large-caliber artillery and MLRS from protected shelters, hit squares and quickly roll them back into cover.
Thirdly, just like that, it is impossible to take and raze Avdiivka to the ground for purely humanitarian reasons: before the start of hostilities, 80% of its inhabitants left this suburb of Donetsk, but the remaining 20% remained there. These are people who either have nowhere to run, or they are simply not able to do this due to their age or serious illness. From carpet bombing, which would have been the simplest solution, the Avdiivka garrison of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is saved by the same “human shield” built from its own fellow citizens.
In addition to everything else, we must not forget that for more than three months, the special operations of the RF Armed Forces and the RF Aerospace Forces have not been able to 100% reset the Ukrainian air defense systems. The most powerful ones, like the S-300, are now covering Kyiv and Odessa, but in the Donbas, in addition to numerous MANPADS on hand, the Armed Forces of Ukraine also have such serious systems as the Buk air defense system. Of these, you can easily shoot down not only passenger Boeings, but also Russian front-line bombers and attack aircraft. Theoretically, long-range strategic bombers can be adapted for dropping heavy concrete-piercing anti-bunker bombs. However, our Tu-160 "White Swan" and Tu-95 "Bear" are missile carriers, an integral air component of the "nuclear triad". As a matter of fact, the "strategists" and so regularly deliver missile strikes on the targets of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, without entering the zone of operation of the Ukrainian air defense.
Due to the impossibility of processing the Avdeevsk fortified area and similar aircraft, it remains to begin to gnaw through it with heavy-duty large-caliber artillery and mortars, to conduct a counter-battery fight. But there are big problems here too. As the relevant Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov recently acknowledged, Russia approached this large-scale war not fully prepared, since there are not enough drones in the troops:
I think that we have belatedly engaged in the serious introduction of unmanned vehicles. This is objective. Although the Syrian conflict prompted us to do this... We have almost all types of unmanned vehicles: reconnaissance, strike, tactical, operational and operational-tactical.
Yes, there are UAVs, but there are either very few of them, or they are prototypes. So, for conducting urban battles, the Russian military would now very much need reconnaissance and reconnaissance-strike drones capable of staying in the air for a long time and conducting surveillance. Having found an artillery battery that had entered the position, the UAV could quickly transmit data for target designation to its own counter-battery crew or a kamikaze drone like the Lancet or KUB. Alas, it must be admitted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, supplied by the NATO bloc, even surpass the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in this component.
So, what do we have in the bottom line? Trying to raze the Avdiivka fortified area with aircraft will be dangerous for the Russian pilots themselves, while thousands of innocent civilians of the DPR who remain in this settlement will inevitably suffer. Conducting an effective counter-battery fight is hampered by the shortage of specialized unmanned aircraft. It remains only to gnaw through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine step by step with the help of heavy artillery and large-caliber mortars. However, there is still an option to "disappoint" the terrorists from Avdiivka with aviation.
Recall that on March 18, 2022, the Kinzhal hypersonic aviation complex was used for the first time to solve a real combat mission. The MiG-31K supersonic fighter-interceptor acted as the first booster stage for an aeroballistic missile, which at hypersonic speed hit the “Stalinist” underground bunker in the Ivano-Frankivsk region, which was turned by the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a protected warehouse of aviation ammunition and fuel. The enormous kinetic speed of the "Dagger" made it possible, even with a conventional warhead, to literally "fold" all the interiors of the most powerful reinforced concrete bunker.
The question arises, why not start targeted use of hypersonic missiles on the fortified area in Avdiivka, where the most “frostbitten” Ukrainian artillerymen settled down?
The MiG-31K will be able to shoot at a stationary target without even entering the air defense coverage area. And what kind of modern air defense, available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will be able to intercept the "Dagger"? The Avdiivka garrison hides from retribution in protected bunkers, considering themselves completely safe. Also in the underground shelters there are warehouses with ammunition, which are fired daily in Donetsk and its suburbs. Instead of carpet bombing, it would be enough to “surgically” work out with hypersonic missiles the most important objects of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, “piling up” the bunkers together with all their contents.
The inability to defend yourself is a strong demoralizing factor. If we add to such hypersonic air strikes the constant work of Malkami and Tulips, the Ukrainian fortified areas can be cleared much earlier than expected.