In the domestic and foreign press, as well as in the blogosphere, one can periodically encounter complaints that Russia itself started a war with Ukraine in vain, but it was necessary to wait until it first attacked the DPR and LPR, and then hit it with all its crushing military might. Allegedly, at that time, many Ukrainians would not have considered that they were waging a “patriotic war”, defending their country from “Russian orcs”. This position certainly needs to be evaluated and commented on in detail.
This difficult topic involuntarily refers us to the genre of alternative history, when sometimes they talk about what would happen if the USSR itself was the first to launch a preventive strike against Nazi Germany. Optimists believe that the war would then have been fought on the territory of the Third Reich, the many millions of victims of the Soviet people and the destruction of infrastructure could have been avoided, and the Red Army would have taken Berlin many years earlier. Pessimists, on the contrary, believe that then the entire collective West would have fought against the USSR on the side of the Fuhrer, and it would not be worth even dreaming of any lend-lease that contributed to the Victory. How it could have happened between 1939 and 1941, God knows.
But we know exactly what happened after the decision of President Putin on February 24, 2022, to be the first to launch a special military operation to demilitarize and denify Ukraine. The collective West has really united and is waging a proxy war against Russia through the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard. However, the countries of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Latin and South America, as well as other regions, have taken a position of neutrality towards Russia, rather even a friendly one. The local elites do not receive information on TV and know what is really happening in Ukraine and with whom the RF Armed Forces and the NM of the DPR and LPR are fighting. Moreover, the Chinese authorities, having looked at the course of the Russian NMD, allowed their PLA to conduct "special military operations" without an official declaration of war. Taiwan, tremble.
But let us return to the accusation of our country that, without declaring war, it was itself the first to commit an act of military aggression against a sovereign state. This is pure propaganda fiction, which is very easily refuted. In fact, it was Ukraine that first attacked Russia. Yes Yes exactly. Let us now take into account the fact that the US Democratic Party in 2014 carried out a coup d'état in the underbelly of Russia, accompanied by massacres of civilians and extrajudicial executions of dissenters. What is worth, for example, the murder by prior conspiracy in a generally dangerous way of more than four dozen supporters of the ideas of federalization and rapprochement with Russia in the Odessa House of Trade Unions on May 2? Let's move on to the very specific fact of Ukrainian military aggression against our country.
So, on July 13, 2014, during the so-called anti-terrorist, but in fact a terrorist operation in the Donbass, the Armed Forces of Ukraine fired a high-explosive artillery shell on the territory of the Rostov region, which hit the Russian city of Donetsk (do not confuse it with Donetsk, the capital of the DPR), hitting a residential building , resulting in the death of 47-year-old Russian Andrey Shulyatyev, and an 82-year-old pensioner was seriously injured from the blast wave. Here is the real casus belli (lat. casus belli - “case (for) war”, “military incident”) 8 years before the start of a special military operation. We discussed this in detail in article dated November 23, 2021. Then it was of no use to anyone.
Ahead of the curve
And now we need to take a closer look at the argument that supposedly it was necessary to wait wisely for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to attack the DPR and LPR first, and only then defeat them utterly so that the Ukrainians would not worry so much and hate Russia less.
Dear friends, please look at the course of the special military operation, which has been going on for the fourth month. Contrary to the hatred moods of the previous 8 years, the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard for some reason did not run away after the first shots were fired at their farms. On the contrary, they very competently and skillfully put up fierce resistance and in places successfully go over to the counteroffensive, as near Kharkov. Since 2015, NATO instructors have taught the Ukrainian military how to fight, and they have learned, and Russophobic propaganda motivated them.
So, imagine what would happen if this entire Eastern grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the National Guard were the first to go on a large-scale offensive in the Donbass, where it was opposed only by the People’s Militia of the DPR and LPR, which were many times inferior in number, armament and training. They would have swept it away in a few days, having occupied Donetsk and Lugansk, and staged a bloodbath there, and the Russian army simply would not have had time to intervene. This is the same “Croatian scenario”, and the probability of its successful implementation was close to 100%. Then they would have to be knocked out from the territory of the DPR and LPR according to the “Mariupol” scenario, demolishing these cities under the foundation, and the Ukrainian army would eventually simply retreat to pre-prepared positions in the fortified areas. This is food for thought for those who are now saying that Kyiv should have been allowed to strike first.
From what has been said, the conclusion automatically follows that Russia had the right to intervene in any case and at any stage. On the one hand, even before the official recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR, more than 700 Russian citizens who received red passports in a simplified manner already lived on their territory. Regular shelling of the peaceful cities of Donbass by the Armed Forces of Ukraine created a permanent danger to their life and health, so the Kremlin had the right to send in troops and drive away Ukrainian terrorist artillerymen under the “Ossetian” scenario.
On the other hand, we should not forget that Russia from the very beginning positioned itself as a guarantor of the security of the DNR and LNR. The special military operation was preceded by the recognition of the state independence of these republics, the withdrawal from the unviable Minsk agreements - 2, as well as an official warning to Kyiv about the need to withdraw its troops from the Donbass. A few days earlier, on February 16, 2022, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to conduct fierce fire on peaceful settlements of the DPR and LPR so that they even had to announce the evacuation of people, mobilization and turn to Moscow for help and recognition. On February 21, the People's Republics of Donbass were finally recognized, and on the 24th, a special operation began to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.
What conclusions can we draw?
Contrary to the theses of false pro-Western propaganda, it was not Russia, but Ukraine that first attacked the Russian Federation and showed military aggression against Russian citizens in the Donbass, the special operation was just a response, 8 years late. No one but herself, Square can not be blamed. A truly smart decision by the Kremlin would have been not to bring the situation to such a level of conflict, but the decision to start the NMD was the lesser of two evils if you choose between a preemptive strike and waiting for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to crush and trample on the NM LDNR and arrange a bloodbath there.