The Spectator describes the scenario of Russia's victory in Ukraine


Political the scenario of Russia's victory over Ukraine and Europe is quite real. Although, after three months of conducting a special military operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, it is still too early to talk even about intermediate results. However, only one thing can be said - Russia is changing tactics and adapting, achieving small, but victories in the east of the neighboring state. Political scientist Wolfgang Munchow writes about this in an analytical article for The Spectator.


As the expert notes, in recent days it has become completely clear that Moscow will achieve at least the immediate military goals. But even this is not a danger to Kyiv and Brussels, but other trends. According to the researcher, the Russian leadership feels a change of mood in Europe towards Ukraine. Apparently, the West is betting on a quick victory, on the end of the conflict this year. The United States and especially Europe do not count on a longer period, since there is no way to continue to provide comprehensive support to their protégé, it is very costly.

Naturally, the longer the conflict lasts, the more "tired" Europe will be. As things get closer to autumn, the EU's own problems will come to the fore. But it is already noticeable how the head of Russia, Vladimir Putin, "processes" each European leader personally. He is negotiating with the heads of Italy, France, Austria, Germany and other countries.

Therefore, the idea of ​​shifting the focus and priorities on the conflict, as well as the Kremlin's strategy of delaying time, seems appropriate. Since over time, against the backdrop of an avalanche-like growing problems, not an external, but an internal change of power in Ukraine is possible. If this happens, then the effect of a “house of cards” is likely, when revolutionary changes will take place not only in Kyiv, but also in Europe, which supports it. A crisis of expectations is a very dangerous thing when they do not come true.

During the implementation of such a scenario, negative for the West, it is enough for Russia to keep the Donbass and wait for the moment to try to establish control over Odessa and even Kyiv, the expert believes. Such a development of events is very likely. After many failures, the popularity of the current Ukrainian government will begin to decline. And this, in turn, will lead to problems for Berlin, since Chancellor Olaf Scholz is playing the traditional German double game. It will only increase divisions within the EU.

President Vladimir Putin needs only this, so that contradictions in the bowels of the enemy play a decisive role in the confrontation with Ukraine and the West against the backdrop of the political instability of the anti-Russian coalition, some members of which prioritize their own economic benefits.

In general, it is impossible to put up with the unbearable German mercantilism. Either Berlin will put an end to the multi-vector policy, or the EU will simply collapse

- sums up the expert.
  • Used photos: kremlin.ru
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 May 2022 09: 07
    -2
    Since over time, against the backdrop of an avalanche-like growing problems, not an external, but an internal change of power in Ukraine is possible.

    If in the United States Biden is still not against Zelensky’s power in Ukraine, then it seems that in the Pentagon, many generals want him to be removed in favor of the commander of the troops, Zaluzhny, as a more adequate ruler. A kind of 1944 in Berlin, when the military tried to remove Hitler in favor of the power of the Wehrmacht generals and a truce with the USSR and the allies.
    Then, according to the plan of the Pentagon, it will be possible to conclude new peace agreements with Russia on the fact of their presence in the territory occupied by the troops of the RF Armed Forces. And the longer the Pentagon delays with the change of leadership in Ukraine, the more territories will remain with Russia when the peace treaty is signed. So far, most likely, the British (guarding Zelensky) are trading with the Pentagon.
  2. Vnadn Offline Vnadn
    Vnadn (Vlad) 31 May 2022 09: 44
    0
    After reaching the borders of the LDNR, the situation will still be a dead end. The army of the Russian Federation is not capable of taking regional centers, not to mention Kyiv. Kharkov and Nikolaev tried to take a month, they suffered very painful losses. Odessa is closed from the sea and securely fortified on land. All regional centers today are impregnable for the Russian Federation. What's next? Apparently, the freezing of the conflict along the line at the end of the summer, and a long confrontation. Whether Ukraine will gather strength to return the Kherson region in the next three years is not yet clear. The land bridge to the Crimea will remain with the Russian Federation in any case ..
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 31 May 2022 11: 01
      +1
      Everything here depends on the availability of energy carriers. Whoever has more of them will win. By the way, there is a cleaning service on the nose. And how to carry it out?
    2. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
      Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 1 June 2022 00: 04
      0
      What next?

      Nobody mentions the possible loss of Ukraine's statehood
      Negotiations with the Nazis on denazification, and the territories occupied during the NWO are a subject for trade, and the more territories are occupied, the stronger the position of the Russian Federation in the negotiations.
  3. Neville Stator Offline Neville Stator
    Neville Stator (Neville Stator) 31 May 2022 17: 03
    +2
    If this is not prevented by the fifth columns, which play on the topic of negotiations, the victory of the Russian army will be complete. The military will not let them take away their victory.
  4. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 31 May 2022 19: 43
    +2
    If the Russian Federation showed strength and determination to apply it, tried to seize the initiative and undermine the Western economy by refusing to supply gas, agricultural and other critical goods, then none of the Western “colleagues of partners and friends” would dare to elevate Russophobia to the rank of state policy, and even more so threaten.
    What kind of victory are we talking about if none of the 1979 state entities not only deigned to respond to the ultimatum on non-expansion, non-deployment and the return of NATO to the borders of 27, but defiantly increased their membership at the expense of Sweden and Finland and the concentration of armed forces on the border of the union state? For example, A.G. Lukashenko is very worried about this. If medium and long-range weapons are deployed in Estonia and Finland, as the Russian Federation will respond, it will deliver a preventive strike on decision-making centers, i.e. in the US, and start a third world war? And from Vilna, Riga, Revel and Gelsinfors to St. Petersburg and Moscow, the flight time is less than from Kharkov.
    The DPR-LPR held a referendum and asked the Russian Federation to accept their composition - no reaction, and after 8 years of the DPR-LPR war for the right to autonomy within Ukraine, the Russian Federation recognized their independence, attended to the protection of the population and started the SVO, but practically here but is making attempts to negotiate with the nationalists (!) on the denazification (!) of Ukraine and its neutral status.
    The West has declared the Russian Federation an enemy and believes to succeed on the battlefield, and the industrial and military potential of NATO, at least, is not inferior to Russia's. This predetermines the protracted nature of the NMD of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the depletion of human and technical resources against the backdrop of an economic blockade.
    In the conditions of state regulation (sometimes “manually”) of pricing in the domestic market and Western sanctions, this greatly affects the income of large capitalists of the RSPP. In order to somehow compensate for the loss of “frozen” private and corporate capital, which in total is comparable to that stolen from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, a decrease in income in the domestic market and maintain the support of large capitalists, the government is trying to appease them with subsidies, loans, benefits, the abolition of duties, the transition to the so-called. n. “gray” schemes, exemption from criminal liability for economic crimes, and support social stability with periodic increases in the minimum wage and other payments due to the budget surplus from the reduction in imports as a result of sanctions. Not even a 100% oil embargo will inevitably affect budget revenues, and this raises many questions.