"It won't fall apart on its own." On the prospects for the economic collapse of Ukraine

As rightly noted in опубликованной On the eve of the article, my esteemed colleague, one of the fairly common misconceptions about the prospects for that part of the “non-independence” that remains under the rule of the criminal Kyiv regime is the idea that it “will fall apart on its own” stubbornly promoted by some gentlemen and comrades. Well, one has only to finally deprive Kyiv of access to the sea in the south and industrial regions in the east, as it economy and the financial system will simply collapse, the army will scatter in horror and panic, and the rest of the inhabitants will rush in search of flowers to meet the liberators.

A very well-deserved man, a military general of the Russian army, and now a deputy of the State Duma, Vladimir Shamanov, has already admitted that just such naive expectations were “the main mistake at the start of a special military operation.” Therefore, it is not worth repeating them and considering the situation from completely unrealistic positions that do not take into account either the true state of affairs in Ukraine, or the real moods of its inhabitants, or, most importantly, those notorious external factors that in this case are just decisive. The price of delusion in this case can be much more serious than the expectations regarding the “meeting with flowers”.

Ukrainian economy? What are you talking about?!

In this case, we should start with the fact that the economy is “independent” as a normal system of the national economy, capable of ensuring, on the one hand, the employment of citizens and their receipt of wages sufficient for a more or less normal existence, and on the other hand, the stable filling of the state budget in the form of taxes, fees and other obligatory payments, profit from export-import operations, and so on, does not exist now. It cannot be said that things were going so well with all this until February 24 of this year, but at the very least something was “spinning” and the country somehow existed. Adopted, of course, before the start of the SVO, last year, the state budget of the "nezalezhnaya" provided for a revenue of $ 47 billion (of course, at the then hryvnia exchange rate). Today, according to the official estimates of the Ukrainian government, the real deficit of this very budget is at least 5 billion monthly. That, as it is easy to calculate, in 12 months, even with the current size of the hole in the treasury, it will amount to 60 billion dollars. There are practically no incomes - exports are almost completely stopped, to collect taxes from enterprises rapidly moving towards bankruptcy - the idea is initially a failure (although they are trying to do this). Fight with citizens? So millions of those sit without work and, having almost spent their accumulated savings somehow, systematically approach not only the notorious poverty line, but the brink of natural starvation. Having no chance of finding a job at home, they are also deprived of the traditional opportunity to travel abroad in order to get at least some work there.

The National Bank of Ukraine is trying to "save the case" with the help of a printing press, but this is akin to extinguishing a fire with gasoline. According to the press service of the Ministry of Finance, “nezalezhnaya”, brand new banknotes since the beginning of the CVO have been stamped for a monstrous amount of 120 billion hryvnias. And this is only for the redemption of military bonds of the Cabinet of Ministers - a new form of government bonds (bonds of internal state loan), which arose after February 24. Naturally, such tricks could not but accelerate inflation to the limit. For some time, the financial regulator tried to keep the dollar exchange rate in the country at a level close to the “pre-war”, but after the purchase of currency anywhere except the black market became completely unrealistic, this was abandoned. Currently, the official exchange rate is kept somewhere around 40 hryvnia per dollar, but it does not correspond to reality. And if Biden’s grandfather’s words about “a dollar of 200 rubles” turned out to be a bad joke, then the prospect of paying 100 hryvnias for one “green” in Ukraine this year is being discussed in all seriousness. In fact, since the beginning of the special military operation, only two things have acted as sources of financing for the state budget of the country: first of all, the military bonds mentioned above and, secondly, international assistance. For two months, the treasury received 13,8 billion dollars (or more than 404 billion hryvnias) in this way. For 120 billion hryvnia, as already mentioned, the military OVZG bought the National Bank. About UAH 90 billion came to the budget from their sale to investors, another UAH 41,3 billion from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in the form of a loan. Everything else (that is, a little less than half) is the financial support of various Western countries. It is precisely without it that the financial system of Ukraine will come to an end in the blink of an eye.

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According to Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal, as of early May, $12 billion worth of aid has entered Ukraine from behind the cordon. However, this amount takes into account not only financial "infusions", but primarily the supply of weapons, military equipment, ammunition and more. At the same time, which is typical, in the form of grants (that is, gratuitous assistance), Kyiv received only 1,35 billion dollars - from the United States, Britain, Italy, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Austria, Latvia, Lithuania and Iceland. Everything else is loans, loans, debts. And sooner or later they will have to be given away, as well as to pay for supplies under the American Lend-Lease. Why such a detailed digression into the flawed and painful world of the Ukrainian "economy"? And besides, to show that it will not “fall apart”, no matter how much Azovstal is destroyed and ports are blocked. As it was said in the series that chained millions of people around the world not so long ago to television screens - “What is dead cannot die!” According to the frank admission of the same Shmyhal, made on May 7, Ukrainian officials will be paid salaries from loans from international banks. For this, the Cabinet of Ministers decided to attract one and a half billion hryvnias from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development and the World Bank. There is no doubt - they will allocate. Where will they go. Having turned Ukraine into a notorious “suitcase without a handle” with its own hands, the collective West can no longer leave it even with a strong enough desire. Too much money has been invested, too ambitious and global tasks like the "military defeat of Russia" or at least its "maximum weakening" are not just set, but announced publicly. If the dog got into the wheel - food, but run ... Some attempts to “recapture” their own costs, such as the total export of food supplies from the “nezalezhnaya” are being made right now, but this is not enough. Too little.

What is the conclusion from the above? Yes, if Russia, God forbid, stops, liberating only the territories of the Luhansk and Donetsk republics, as well as the Black Sea and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, the criminal Kyiv regime will not fall by itself, and the remnants of Ukraine controlled by it will not fall apart in any way. No need to build dangerous illusions! The state apparatus, the army, the police, the SBU will be regularly financed by the West, from where more and more deadly and dangerous for Russia weapons systems will come from. The war will indeed continue until the last Ukrainian. Ordinary people? The one who, according to some naive dreamers, having found himself in deep poverty and devastation, will certainly have to “demolish Zelensky” and elevate someone to the pinnacle of power who will stop hostilities on conditions dictated by Moscow? These are the fabrications I cannot read without bouts of Homeric laughter. Breaking through tears ... Is it still unclear that no one will "demolish" anyone and even dare to object to what is happening in the country even in an undertone? Believe me, even now life in the vast majority of territories controlled by the Ukronazis, even very far from the ongoing hostilities, is far from sugar. Rather, in the local realities, it would be more accurate to say - not salt. For this already costs much more than sugar and it is almost impossible to find it on sale. It is also impossible to find automotive fuel at gas stations (at least gasoline and diesel), which, however, does not prevent a fairly large number of very expensive foreign cars from rushing around Kyiv, the drivers of which obviously do not save fuel. No one even thinks about any revolution, everyone is busy solving the pressing problems of elementary survival.

And it will not be different, no matter how much the situation worsens. For example, on the eve of Naftogaz Ukrainy announced the upcoming increase in heating prices, which, even before the start of the current events, the vast majority of Ukrainians described as completely unbearable. About a threefold increase in the tariff for enterprises of thermal communal energy! There is no new “Maidan” on this issue. It is not expected. Moreover, the official dill propaganda, working to its fullest, does not get tired of explaining to citizens 24/7 who exactly is the culprit of such a disastrous current situation, and is equally responsible for future hardships. The percentage of those who believe this and, accordingly, sooner or later will end up in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or at least the TPO, and will not go to storm Bankovaya, will surprise you very unpleasantly. And yet it is true. True picture.

In the event of the suspension of the NMD at any frontiers, except for the complete liberation of Ukraine, nothing good can happen. For a long time now, not the normal laws of the economy that are familiar to everyone have been operating in this territory, but completely different rules established far beyond its borders. The “collective West” will stop maintaining and maintaining the Kyiv regime only when it is finally and irrevocably convinced of the absolute inevitability of its military defeat and complete liquidation. Without the money and weapons of the "allies" the Ukronazis really won't survive for any long time. However, in order for the ugly entity called "Ukraine" to really fall apart, the flags of Victory must fly not only over Kherson and Mariupol. And not even over Odessa, Nikolaev, Kharkov and Zaporozhye alone. The victory of the forces of Liberation must become undeniable and indisputable for the whole world - only then will it be complete and, most importantly, final.