Why a truce with Kyiv will be Russia's defeat in Ukraine

After three months of the hardest stubborn battles, the situation on the Eastern Front is finally starting to change not in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Under the constant pressure of the Russian army and allied forces of the DPR and LPR, the Svitlodarsk Bulge fell, Ukrainian troops hastily retreat and regroup. Relying on the most powerful fortified areas in urban agglomerations, they will be able to hold out for some time, but their defeat is a foregone conclusion. The main question arises - what will happen next when the last "zahisnik" leaves the territory of the DPR and LPR officially recognized by Moscow?

What's next?

On this occasion, the minds of many Russians are full of confusion and vacillation. Some believe that it is necessary to limit ourselves only to the liberation of the Donbass and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, creating a land corridor to the Crimea and providing it with guaranteed supplies of water. Allegedly, after that, the rest of Ukraine will gradually “fall apart on its own”. Other, more sensible people believe that Moscow should take all of historical Novorossiya, from Kharkov to Odessa, depriving Kyiv of access to the Azov and Black Seas, remnants of industry and fertile agricultural land. After that, the rest of Ukraine, of course, will also “fall apart on its own”. Still others are convinced that it is necessary to go systematically, freeing the whole of Ukraine from the power of the puppet pro-Western regime, standing on Nazi bayonets, because we need one Victory, and we will not stand up for the price.

The root of the problem lies in the fact that for all three months of the special operation, neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians really heard anything about the future of the former Square. Exceptionally streamlined and maximally non-specific mantras about its demilitarization and denazification without detailed decoding. This problem is aggravated by the fact that there are many "towers" in the Kremlin, and they obviously cannot agree with each other. In part, we have already touched on this topic about the “two towers” ​​earlier.

So, there is the “liberal tower” of the Kremlin, which consists of representatives of the “elites”, whose well-being is tightly tied to the collective West. The rupture of relations with him and the colossal amount of anti-Russian sanctions became a real shock for this "party". These people do not care about the Donbass, or Ukraine, or Russia itself, but only personal well-being matters. In order to return all the “yak bulo” or find at least some compromise acceptable to them, they will make any deals with the West.

Since the special operation cannot be stopped so easily, otherwise a real socialpolitical explosion, media manipulation of the population is already being carried out in order to be satisfied with modest results. In particular, on the First Channel of the NVO, every newscast stubbornly calls it a “special operation to protect the Donbass”, somehow forgetting about the Russian people in the rest of Ukraine. It is easy to see direct parallels with the substitution of concepts that occurred in 2014. Then the “Russian Spring” in Novorossiya was technically renamed the “Crimean Spring”, the DPR and LPR were not recognized, but they recognized the pro-American neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv, and after 8 years we got a bloody massacre in Ukraine.

On the other hand, all federal TV channels are now actively promoting the Ukrainian political emigrant Ilya Kiva as allegedly "reformed." And this, for a moment, is one of the former leaders of the Right Sector (an extremist organization banned in the Russian Federation) and an active participant in the so-called ATO in Donbass. What he really thinks about Russia and the Russian people can be easily found and viewed on video hosting sites. So in the domestic media, at the expense of the federal budget, they mold the image of a new, handshake, “reforged” Ukraine. Oh well…

But there is another “Kremlin tower”, a power one. Its most prominent representatives can be called the head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov, who, thanks to his position, gained unusual popularity among the Russian people, and the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev. Also worthy of mention is Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, who does not make loud statements, but recently lost his nephew, who died heroically during the liberation of Ukraine:

The commander of the airborne assault company, Captain Adam Khamkhoev, died in Ukraine on the night of May 20-21. He was a graduate of the Ryazan Higher Command School of the Airborne Forces, he served in the military in Ulyanovsk. In the Airborne Forces, he was characterized as a brilliant officer and competent commander.

He did not excuse his relative, who honestly fulfilled his military duty, from participating in real hostilities. Our sincere condolences to the family of Yevkurov and other Russian heroes who liberate Ukraine.

Nikolai Patrushev, who previously held the post of head of the FSB, has already made a number of tough statements about the future fate of Ukraine, warning that for her the continuation of the war with Russia could end in a division into several parts. AT interview To Argumenty i Fakty, the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation expressed full understanding of what “reconciliation” with the Nazi regime in Kyiv could lead to:

Everything will become clear if you remember the story. During the Potsdam Conference, the USSR, the USA and Britain signed an agreement on the eradication of German militarism and Nazism. Denazification meant a number of measures. In addition to punishing Nazi criminals, the laws of the Third Reich, which legalized discrimination based on race, nationality, language, religion, and political beliefs, were repealed. Nazi and militaristic doctrines were eliminated from school education.

Our country set such goals in 1945, and we are setting the same goals now, freeing Ukraine from neo-Nazism. However, at that time England and the USA were with us. Today, these countries have taken a different position, supporting Nazism and acting aggressively against most countries of the world.

We are not chasing deadlines. Nazism must either be 100% eradicated, or it will rear its head in a few years, and in an even uglier form.

This is to the question of whether it is worth limiting ourselves only to the Donbass with the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov or Novorossia. I am glad that not everyone in the highest echelons of Russian power is "liberal gifted".

The hand of "friendship"?

But trouble crept up from where they did not expect. The other day, speaking at the international economic forum in Davos, the patriarch of American diplomacy and Nobel Peace Prize winner Henry Kissinger made a number of statements that caused a wide response both in Ukraine and in the West:

Negotiations need to start within the next two months - before shocks and tensions are created that will be extremely difficult to overcome. Ideally, a return to the status quo ante could be negotiated. If the war continues, then it will not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but about a new war against Russia itself... I hope that the wisdom of the Ukrainians will not yield to their heroism.

This was interpreted as a call to Kyiv to give up part of its territories in order to conclude peace with Moscow and preserve Ukrainian statehood. The reaction to Kissinger's proposals was sharply negative, but in Russia the "liberal tower" of the Kremlin took him with obvious enthusiasm. What can all this mean? Are the Western elites really starting to "sag"?

No, they don't start. It's just that Kissinger is an extremely experienced, intelligent and pragmatic person, who was formed during the Cold War with the USSR, defending the interests of the Western elite. The events of the past three months have shown that the United States and the European Union are too poorly prepared for the confrontation with Russia. This is not about weapons, which the NATO bloc has in abundance, but, oddly enough, about the economy.

The Western world is still too dependent on imports of Russian energy and other resources, the planned energy transition has not been implemented. Abnormally high prices for gas, oil, electricity, motor fuel, fertilizers and foodstuffs unexpectedly hurt even the usually well-fed American and European man in the street, making industrial production unprofitable. The collective West needs a pause in order to rebuild itself, replace the import of Russian natural resources and better prepare for the second round of the war against our country.

In other words, the "dove of peace" Henry Kissinger offers not peace, but only a truce. No matter how much Moscow takes, the Sea of ​​Azov with the Donbass or the whole of Novorossia, if even one piece of Ukrainian land remains under the rule of the pro-Western Nazi regime, the war with Russia will resume as soon as the US and EU complete the process of import substitution. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be pumped up with the best weapons, and the war, even more cruel and bloody, will resume. You can even estimate the time frame for when this will happen, if, of course, now the “liberal tower” seizes the opportunity to sign some kind of agreement with Kyiv. This is 3-5 years that will be needed to reform the gas industry in the US and Europe and build a powerful LNG tanker fleet. Having got rid of the critical dependence on Russia for natural resources, the collective West will resume the hot stage of the war on the territory of Ukraine.

This is exactly what will happen if the Kremlin decides to be content with little - Donbass and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. A tit in the hands now will turn into even greater rivers of blood in just a few years. Any intermediate result, except for the complete liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine, alas, will be the defeat of Russia, no matter what anyone says with foam at the mouth about this.
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  1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 26 May 2022 12: 13
    I agree with the author in almost everything, but the main thing is that the guarantor himself always makes streamlined formulations of the tasks set (you can, of course, write this off again for HPP), but that’s why the towers butt and the goals are not fully understood and officials constantly make idiotic statements. But the fact that the "world" war with the Nazis will be a postponed war is understandable to my fool, and 8 years of Minsk-2 confirm this, but the fact that it will end in favor of Russia is not at all a fact
  2. Muscool Offline Muscool
    Muscool (Glory) 26 May 2022 12: 26
    I will subscribe. Either POLYANAYA capitulation of Ukraine, throwing out all Western puppets and who impresses them.
    Strict conditions by type: having an army of no more than 50 thousand people, just internal troops, restrictions on types of weapons, etc.
    Otherwise, the meat grinder will be worse.
    1. Sydor Kovpak Offline Sydor Kovpak
      Sydor Kovpak 26 May 2022 16: 47
      Even in 2014, this would not have helped. A lot of time has passed, like 8 years, but in fact a lot. This fascist cancer is only maturing and gaining strength. No independence or autonomy. For a hundred-year history of Ukraine, only as part of the USSR, it represented a worthy country with a history and a future. For 30 years of INDEPENDENCE, nothing has happened, only degradation!
  3. Vdars Offline Vdars
    Vdars (Victor) 26 May 2022 12: 30
    Any intermediate result, except for the complete liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine, alas, will be the defeat of Russia.

    - Bo in the future will require too much strength and blood, strength and blood to completely eliminate this infection of ukronazism!
  4. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 May 2022 12: 58
    Good article. Good topic, as always with this author.
    And I'll tell you more: if we return Crimea to Kyiv, it will be Russia's defeat.
    However, the author will write about this better. I give him this new and relevant topic.
    He will probably describe me more beautifully and more competently than the return of Crimea to the Kyiv junta is bad.
  5. Dimy4 Offline Dimy4
    Dimy4 (Dmitriy) 26 May 2022 13: 13
    In the Kremlin, not only are there many towers, but there is simply no Master, who, even with a hint of negotiations with bandits, would send such a hinter to cut down the forest for 10 years with complete confiscation of property.
  6. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 26 May 2022 13: 22
    Why a truce with Kyiv will be Russia's defeat in Ukraine

    Because neither denazification nor demilitarization will follow, and Ukrainization and Russophobia will receive a powerful stimulus and flourish more than ever, not to mention the political economy and other consequences such as non-promotion, non-deployment and return of NATO to the 1979 borders.
    The victory of the Russian Federation is not in a truce - a postponed war, not in the division of Ukraine and the creation of Novorossiya-Little Russia, but in its complete occupation, deprivation of statehood and an increase in the number of administrative regions of Ukraine in the subjects of the Russian Federation.
    Only in this case it will be possible to talk about victory, denazification and demilitarization, and the attempt initiated by the Russian Federation to negotiate with Ukrainian nationalists on denazification and the neutral status of Ukraine, unfortunately, says the opposite and causes concern about their future among the population of the occupied territories during a special military operation and talk of victory among the nationalists.
  7. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 26 May 2022 13: 33
    The author fears a delay in a large-scale war with Ukraine.
    And is he not afraid of a guerrilla war on its territory - like the Afghan one, which served as a catalyst for the collapse of the USSR?
    Cut off from the sea, Ukraine will rot during the "delay" proposed by H. Kissinger.
    It is no coincidence that official Kyiv took his proposal with hostility!
    1. guest Offline guest
      guest 26 May 2022 14: 03
      There is no need to be afraid of Afghanization, a guerrilla war is likely only in the west of Ukraine. For this territory, it can and will be possible to bargain with the West later, but only on very tough conditions, including complete demilitarization and unconditional neutrality of this territory.
      1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
        Michael L. 26 May 2022 16: 27
        If the West supplies weapons to the insurgents, this will not be limited to the territory of Western Ukraine.
        And when they put a knife to the throat: do not bargain!
        1. opportunist Offline opportunist
          opportunist (dim) 27 May 2022 11: 03
          practically only the guerrilla war of the Russian world is realistic and not vice versa
  8. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 May 2022 13: 41
    Quote from Mikhail L.
    And is he not afraid of a guerrilla war on its territory - like the Afghan one, which served as a catalyst for the collapse of the USSR?

    There will be no guerrilla war. There are no prerequisites. There will be many guerrilla groups, urban resistance, avengers, etc. on the Internet. In a couple of - three months and they will fade, except for those who will live outside the borders of the former Ukraine.
    Individual facts, of course, will be. Systemically, no. Not that people.
    Remember the jokes that appeared long before 2014.
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 26 May 2022 16: 24
      Anecdotes until 2014 - an indisputable argument - no match for the UPA and banditry until the mid-50s!
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 May 2022 16: 42
        My arguments are fresher than yours. Azov is an example of this.
        And this "until the mid-50s" actually means not the presence of a systemic and numerous struggle against Soviet power, but the presence of isolated facts of resistance. Which, absolutely, did not carry any threats to Soviet power in Western Ukraine. Unpleasant? Yes. But not more.
        1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
          Michael L. 26 May 2022 19: 21
          No need to ascribe to me the desired emotions.
          Sofa strategist: "let's throw hats"?
          The most "fresh example" from today's statement by Eduard Basurin
          (press secretary of the military command of the DPR): conscripts from Western Ukraine do not want to fight, and it is the people from ... pro-Russian Eastern Ukraine who are putting up fierce resistance!
  9. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 26 May 2022 13: 55
    Again, the author spreads defeatist sentiments.
    1. isofat Offline isofat
      isofat (isofat) 26 May 2022 14: 09
      Oleg Rambover, the author expressed his opinion, and you spread slander against him or, in short, slander. yes

      Probably yearn for the thirties and the fight against the "enemies" of the people?
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 26 May 2022 14: 22
        The author expressed his opinion, the reader expressed his opinion (with which I agree).
        What's the slander here? Are you just trying to shut your mouth? Or is the vocabulary small and you use the first word that comes across?
        1. isofat Offline isofat
          isofat (isofat) 26 May 2022 15: 17
          Expert, slander despite the fact that this is already my opinion about what it actually does Oleg Rambover. laughing
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  10. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 26 May 2022 14: 15
    What a waste to worry about. As the Kremlin says, so be it.

    He said - in Syria we defeated everyone and we are withdrawing - that means we won.

    He said - Endogan is a killer and a terrorist - that means a terrorist, he said - and now a strategic partner means a partner.

    Soon remote control will be introduced, you won’t even have to nod on TV.
  11. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 26 May 2022 14: 17
    Plans can be built Napoleonic. But they have the blood of Russian soldiers behind them (Think about it
  12. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 26 May 2022 16: 54
    We urgently need a Law on Ukraine.
    It is necessary to legislate that the territory of Ukraine, seized by the separatists with the help of NATO, is the property of Russia.
    Then, in accordance with the Law, the military operation carried out by Russia in Ukraine is the liberation of the territory of Russia occupied by separatists, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia.
    The existence of the Law will give certainty about the future of Ukraine to the citizens of the Russian Federation and citizens of Ukraine. Citizens living on the territory of Ukraine will not have to be afraid in the future for themselves, for persecution by the fascist regime. The law will not allow in the Russian Federation to engage in the manipulation of unscrupulous politicians.
    All actions of the Russian Army on the territory of Ukraine will comply with the Law. The law will not allow NATO to intervene, to bring troops from Poland, Romania, Hungary into the territory of Ukraine, and the annexation of Ukraine by these countries will automatically disappear.
    The unilateral appeal adopted on December 5, 1991 by the Supreme Council of Ukraine “To the Parliaments and Peoples of the World”, by which it announced that “Ukraine considers the 1922 Treaty on the Establishment of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics with respect to itself null and void” is void, since in 1936 a new The Constitution of the USSR, with the entry into force of which the Constitution of the USSR of 1924 ceased to operate, including the Treaty on the Formation of the USSR of 1922. The Treaty on the Formation of the USSR of 1922 did not exist as an independent legal document.
    The withdrawal of the Republic of Ukraine from the USSR was possible only with a positive decision received at the USSR Referendum and the implementation of the USSR Law of April 3, 1990 No. 1410-I “On the procedure for resolving issues related to the withdrawal of a union republic from the USSR”.
    The USSR Constitution of 1977 was adopted by all the peoples of the USSR, and only the entire people of the USSR could give permission for Ukraine to leave the USSR.
    The exit of Ukraine without a nationwide referendum in the USSR and the failure to comply with the law of April 3, 1990 No. 1410-I is a criminal offense that has no statute of limitations.
    The Treaty "On Friendship, Cooperation and Partnership between the Russian Federation and Ukraine" dated May 31, 1997 ceased to be valid on April 1, 2019 due to its denunciation by Ukraine. The termination of this Treaty releases the Russian Federation from any obligation in relation to Ukraine.
    The USSR - the successor - the right successor of the Russian Empire, and the Russian Federation-Russia the successor - the right successor of the USSR. All of them are the same subject of history and international law (RF), which has a new name and a different socio-political system. The Russian Federation-Russia and the USSR paid off all debts, including those of the Russian Empire, for which there are court decisions or other supporting documents. For example, between 1997 and to 2000 From the budget of the Russian Federation, payments were made in the total amount of 400 million US dollars in favor of the Government of the French Republic for the debts of the Government of the Russian Empire. In August 2006, the Russian Federation fully repaid the lend-lease debt to the United States. There are no outstanding debts, we do not consider modern loans. This is a fact that the Russian Federation has unilaterally assumed obligations to be the successor - successor of the Russian Empire and the USSR.
    Russia did not transfer, sell or donate to the former Soviet republic of the USSR Ukraine its territories, as well as its foreign assets.
    It is urgently necessary for the Russian Federation-Russia, as the successor of the Russian Empire and the USSR, and as the owner of the territory of the former USSR republic of Ukraine, to secure Russia's ownership of this territory by legislative means, unilaterally.
    For example, in 2005, China passed the "Law on Anti-Secession of the State." According to the document, in the event of a threat to the peaceful reunification of the mainland and Taiwan, the PRC government is obliged to resort to force and other necessary methods to preserve its territorial integrity.
    The absence of a law stating that the territory of Ukraine is the property of Russia allows Russia's enemies to interpret the ongoing special military operation as aggression and occupation by Russia and allows NATO countries to annex this no man's territory.
    There is only one decision on Ukraine in favor of the people of Russia. The state of Ukraine must cease to exist. The entire territory of Ukraine should return to Russia, in the form of regions and republics. There is no need to ask permission from anyone, everything must be done unilaterally. There is no state of Ukraine, there are no debts, there is no government of Ukraine in exile, there are no Ukrainian participants in various international organizations, there is no hostile state on the border of Russia.
    If the state of Ukraine is left, then today and in the future, Russia will always have a headache. Ukraine will definitely join NATO. Everything that is promised and will be spelled out in the Constitution of Ukraine, in its documents, Ukraine will change, in the way that is beneficial to the United States and its satellites.
  13. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 26 May 2022 17: 36
    Some believe that it is necessary to limit ourselves only to the liberation of the Donbass and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, creating a land corridor to the Crimea and providing it with guaranteed supplies of water. Allegedly, after that, the rest of Ukraine will gradually “fall apart on its own”.

    If we continue to supply the "rest of Ukraine" with gas, oil and oil products, then indeed, "it will not fall apart by itself")
  14. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 29 May 2022 19: 42
    To Internet "liberators" M. Sinelnikov-Orishak:

    "Ukraine" might not have happened if not for Khrushchev. Yes, yes, he not only gave “Crimea”, but also changed the “sign”. What was planned by "Dorogomilovskaya" (in the project it was listed "Hotel building in Dorogomilov") became "Ukraine". The formal reason is the same - the 300th anniversary of the Pereyaslav Rada (1954 - the beginning of construction), which was considered in the USSR "the reunification of the two peoples." Pay attention, not “people” and “invented people”, but “two peoples”.

  15. Awaz Offline Awaz
    Awaz (Walery) 29 May 2022 19: 49
    Of course, you are all great, but who will fight then? But now even more than military force must be used, and the right pressure is not the forces on the remnants of Ukraine who understand that the war will no longer lead to anything good and with whom it is possible to negotiate something. The same Kiva at the moment does not have any forces that could seize power in Kyiv, so it is useless to negotiate with him, but still something needs to be done. The example of Chechnya is indicative. I understand that in the future this may not be good, but the situation forces us to negotiate in the first place. Force still fails to finish off the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because it will cause too much destruction and casualties. It is not good for Russians to fight against their own Russians.
  16. Kulikov Victor Offline Kulikov Victor
    Kulikov Victor (Victor) 29 May 2022 22: 26
    Absolutely agree with the author. However, stop fighting with "white gloves", for some reason not striking at the railway infrastructure of Ukraine, allowing the collective West to send a continuous stream of weapons and fuel to Ukrainian troops. In the end, something must be done with the "fifth column" in the highest echelons of power, which binds the hands of the actions of the military. "Agents of influence" - the liberals of the government's economic bloc - became more active, who openly opposed the country's withdrawal from openly anti-Russian organizations such as the WTO and the IMF. They do not even want to stutter about the new industrialization of the country, in every possible way they torpedo the transfer of the economy to a military footing, without which it is impossible to win. Time is not playing on us. Already, the army is experiencing an acute shortage of equipment. Things have come to the point that the ancient T-62 tanks are being removed from conservation and sent to the front. At the same time, billions of dollars and euros, according to murky schemes, are again bought up on the stock exchange and are again deposited in some kind of "lodge". It is quite obvious that in modern conditions the rate of the Central Bank of Russia should be within 2-3 percent per annum, and now it is 11%. And this is after several cycles of decline. If the "fifth column" is not removed from real power in the near future, catastrophic consequences await Russia.
  17. Evdokimov Sergey Yurievich 2 June 2022 07: 12
    If we stop there without liberating the entire territory of the former outskirts, the prestige of our president will fall not only abroad, but also in Russia. And we will have to fight again, perhaps more than once. Trash in any form is always trash.
    1. guest Offline guest
      guest 2 June 2022 13: 31
      And most importantly, then you will have to fight with NATO.
  18. Opozdavshiy Offline Opozdavshiy
    Opozdavshiy (Sergei) 4 June 2022 12: 39
    The root of the problem lies in the fact that for all three months of the special operation, neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians really heard anything about the future of the former Square. Exceptionally streamlined and maximally non-specific mantras about its demilitarization and denazification without detailed decoding. This problem is aggravated by the fact that there are many "towers" in the Kremlin, and they obviously cannot agree with each other. In part, we have already touched on this topic about the “two towers” ​​earlier.

    This is the opinion of the author. Some towers...
    I believe the author is not quite right.

    Colleagues, the proxy war waged by the Anglo-Saxons on Ukrainian territory can objectively be successful only if the Anglo-Saxons have clear strategic goals and an understanding of the enemy's goals. Because a proxy war is much more politics than a regular war in which opponents converge head-on. In such a conventional war, tactics are developed situationally.
    In a proxy war, tactics are developed not on the battlefield, not in the headquarters of tactical battalion groups, but in the offices of politicians and diplomats.
    And ours are doing ABSOLUTELY RIGHT that they do not give any information about the goals and meanings of their actions in Ukraine. Europe is now consolidated by the Anglo-Saxons, just as Europe was once consolidated by the German fascists.
    And there is no reason to help our adversaries build a proxy war strategy with Russia.
    This must be understood.