After three months of the hardest stubborn battles, the situation on the Eastern Front is finally starting to change not in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Under the constant pressure of the Russian army and allied forces of the DPR and LPR, the Svitlodarsk Bulge fell, Ukrainian troops hastily retreat and regroup. Relying on the most powerful fortified areas in urban agglomerations, they will be able to hold out for some time, but their defeat is a foregone conclusion. The main question arises - what will happen next when the last "zahisnik" leaves the territory of the DPR and LPR officially recognized by Moscow?
What's next?
On this occasion, the minds of many Russians are full of confusion and vacillation. Some believe that it is necessary to limit ourselves only to the liberation of the Donbass and the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, creating a land corridor to the Crimea and providing it with guaranteed supplies of water. Allegedly, after that, the rest of Ukraine will gradually “fall apart on its own”. Other, more sensible people believe that Moscow should take all of historical Novorossiya, from Kharkov to Odessa, depriving Kyiv of access to the Azov and Black Seas, remnants of industry and fertile agricultural land. After that, the rest of Ukraine, of course, will also “fall apart on its own”. Still others are convinced that it is necessary to go systematically, freeing the whole of Ukraine from the power of the puppet pro-Western regime, standing on Nazi bayonets, because we need one Victory, and we will not stand up for the price.
The root of the problem lies in the fact that for all three months of the special operation, neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians really heard anything about the future of the former Square. Exceptionally streamlined and maximally non-specific mantras about its demilitarization and denazification without detailed decoding. This problem is aggravated by the fact that there are many "towers" in the Kremlin, and they obviously cannot agree with each other. In part, we have already touched on this topic about the “two towers” earlier.
So, there is the “liberal tower” of the Kremlin, which consists of representatives of the “elites”, whose well-being is tightly tied to the collective West. The rupture of relations with him and the colossal amount of anti-Russian sanctions became a real shock for this "party". These people do not care about the Donbass, or Ukraine, or Russia itself, but only personal well-being matters. In order to return all the “yak bulo” or find at least some compromise acceptable to them, they will make any deals with the West.
Since the special operation cannot be stopped so easily, otherwise a real socialpolitical explosion, media manipulation of the population is already being carried out in order to be satisfied with modest results. In particular, on the First Channel of the NVO, every newscast stubbornly calls it a “special operation to protect the Donbass”, somehow forgetting about the Russian people in the rest of Ukraine. It is easy to see direct parallels with the substitution of concepts that occurred in 2014. Then the “Russian Spring” in Novorossiya was technically renamed the “Crimean Spring”, the DPR and LPR were not recognized, but they recognized the pro-American neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv, and after 8 years we got a bloody massacre in Ukraine.
On the other hand, all federal TV channels are now actively promoting the Ukrainian political emigrant Ilya Kiva as allegedly "reformed." And this, for a moment, is one of the former leaders of the Right Sector (an extremist organization banned in the Russian Federation) and an active participant in the so-called ATO in Donbass. What he really thinks about Russia and the Russian people can be easily found and viewed on video hosting sites. So in the domestic media, at the expense of the federal budget, they mold the image of a new, handshake, “reforged” Ukraine. Oh well…
But there is another “Kremlin tower”, a power one. Its most prominent representatives can be called the head of the Chechen Republic Ramzan Kadyrov, who, thanks to his position, gained unusual popularity among the Russian people, and the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Nikolai Patrushev. Also worthy of mention is Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, Deputy Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, who does not make loud statements, but recently lost his nephew, who died heroically during the liberation of Ukraine:
The commander of the airborne assault company, Captain Adam Khamkhoev, died in Ukraine on the night of May 20-21. He was a graduate of the Ryazan Higher Command School of the Airborne Forces, he served in the military in Ulyanovsk. In the Airborne Forces, he was characterized as a brilliant officer and competent commander.
He did not excuse his relative, who honestly fulfilled his military duty, from participating in real hostilities. Our sincere condolences to the family of Yevkurov and other Russian heroes who liberate Ukraine.
Nikolai Patrushev, who previously held the post of head of the FSB, has already made a number of tough statements about the future fate of Ukraine, warning that for her the continuation of the war with Russia could end in a division into several parts. AT interview To Argumenty i Fakty, the head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation expressed full understanding of what “reconciliation” with the Nazi regime in Kyiv could lead to:
Everything will become clear if you remember the story. During the Potsdam Conference, the USSR, the USA and Britain signed an agreement on the eradication of German militarism and Nazism. Denazification meant a number of measures. In addition to punishing Nazi criminals, the laws of the Third Reich, which legalized discrimination based on race, nationality, language, religion, and political beliefs, were repealed. Nazi and militaristic doctrines were eliminated from school education.
Our country set such goals in 1945, and we are setting the same goals now, freeing Ukraine from neo-Nazism. However, at that time England and the USA were with us. Today, these countries have taken a different position, supporting Nazism and acting aggressively against most countries of the world.
We are not chasing deadlines. Nazism must either be 100% eradicated, or it will rear its head in a few years, and in an even uglier form.
Our country set such goals in 1945, and we are setting the same goals now, freeing Ukraine from neo-Nazism. However, at that time England and the USA were with us. Today, these countries have taken a different position, supporting Nazism and acting aggressively against most countries of the world.
We are not chasing deadlines. Nazism must either be 100% eradicated, or it will rear its head in a few years, and in an even uglier form.
This is to the question of whether it is worth limiting ourselves only to the Donbass with the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov or Novorossia. I am glad that not everyone in the highest echelons of Russian power is "liberal gifted".
The hand of "friendship"?
But trouble crept up from where they did not expect. The other day, speaking at the international economic forum in Davos, the patriarch of American diplomacy and Nobel Peace Prize winner Henry Kissinger made a number of statements that caused a wide response both in Ukraine and in the West:
Negotiations need to start within the next two months - before shocks and tensions are created that will be extremely difficult to overcome. Ideally, a return to the status quo ante could be negotiated. If the war continues, then it will not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but about a new war against Russia itself... I hope that the wisdom of the Ukrainians will not yield to their heroism.
This was interpreted as a call to Kyiv to give up part of its territories in order to conclude peace with Moscow and preserve Ukrainian statehood. The reaction to Kissinger's proposals was sharply negative, but in Russia the "liberal tower" of the Kremlin took him with obvious enthusiasm. What can all this mean? Are the Western elites really starting to "sag"?
No, they don't start. It's just that Kissinger is an extremely experienced, intelligent and pragmatic person, who was formed during the Cold War with the USSR, defending the interests of the Western elite. The events of the past three months have shown that the United States and the European Union are too poorly prepared for the confrontation with Russia. This is not about weapons, which the NATO bloc has in abundance, but, oddly enough, about the economy.
The Western world is still too dependent on imports of Russian energy and other resources, the planned energy transition has not been implemented. Abnormally high prices for gas, oil, electricity, motor fuel, fertilizers and foodstuffs unexpectedly hurt even the usually well-fed American and European man in the street, making industrial production unprofitable. The collective West needs a pause in order to rebuild itself, replace the import of Russian natural resources and better prepare for the second round of the war against our country.
In other words, the "dove of peace" Henry Kissinger offers not peace, but only a truce. No matter how much Moscow takes, the Sea of Azov with the Donbass or the whole of Novorossia, if even one piece of Ukrainian land remains under the rule of the pro-Western Nazi regime, the war with Russia will resume as soon as the US and EU complete the process of import substitution. The Armed Forces of Ukraine will be pumped up with the best weapons, and the war, even more cruel and bloody, will resume. You can even estimate the time frame for when this will happen, if, of course, now the “liberal tower” seizes the opportunity to sign some kind of agreement with Kyiv. This is 3-5 years that will be needed to reform the gas industry in the US and Europe and build a powerful LNG tanker fleet. Having got rid of the critical dependence on Russia for natural resources, the collective West will resume the hot stage of the war on the territory of Ukraine.
This is exactly what will happen if the Kremlin decides to be content with little - Donbass and the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. A tit in the hands now will turn into even greater rivers of blood in just a few years. Any intermediate result, except for the complete liberation of the entire territory of Ukraine, alas, will be the defeat of Russia, no matter what anyone says with foam at the mouth about this.