Growing unrest in Iran threatens to have consequences for the whole world


In early May, civil unrest broke out in Iran with renewed vigor. The situation in the country, in general, has been unstable for several years now: tough economic Sanctions, pandemics, crop failures caused by natural conditions worsen the situation of the broad masses more and more, which leads to protests. A new surge of discontent is caused by the government's decision to cancel subsidies for imports of food and essential goods: it was terminated on May 1, which led to an explosive, 3-5 times, jump in prices.


Tehran Maidan?


Due to the well-known "closedness" of Iran, it is difficult to judge the actual scale of the unrest; almost the only source of information is telegram channels, often of dubious reliability. It is safe to say that popular uprisings are taking place, that they have reached their greatest intensity in the western and southwestern regions, and that the government has already taken response measures, both economic and police.

In addition to demonstrations, looting of grocery stores and warehouses occurs in unstable areas. Both the IRGC and the Basij paramilitary units were involved in the suppression of the unrest. The security forces meet resistance, including armed ones.

What raises great doubts is the information disseminated by pro-Western sources that allegedly the protesters are no longer just coming out with anti-government slogans, but are almost calling for the restoration of the monarchy en masse.

The heir to the last Shah of Iran, who was deposed in 1979, Reza Pahlavi, now heads the so-called "National Council for Free Elections" based - unsurprisingly - in the US and working on US money. There is every reason to believe that the “splash of monarchism” exists only in the stuff that this office itself generates: there are too many in Iran who “saw the living king” and remembers how “freely” it was under the shah’s regime.

The real instigators and puppeteers of the protests, according to most opinions, are the underground members of the "Organization of the Mujahideen of the Iranian People" - a very old group, the founders of which once participated in the overthrow of the monarchy, but after the establishment of the Islamic Republic went into radical opposition. OMIN has a fairly extensive network of cells and extensive experience in both information and sabotage combat.

For a long time, this organization was officially considered a terrorist organization in the West too - in many respects, for active cooperation with the Hussein regime during and after the Iran-Iraq war. But in the late 2000s, when the patent democrats themselves became interested in the services of the OMIN, the “Iranian Mujahideen” were rehabilitated. Now the headquarters of the organization is located in France, from where its leader, Mariam Rajavi, actively calls on compatriots to fight for democracy, emancipation and secularization of the Iranian state. An important point in the program of the future "president of the transitional government" (this is one of Rajavi's posts) is the curtailment of the nuclear program. Thanks to a large number of informants on the ground, OMIN is able to closely monitor the situation and further fan each fire of discontent that arises - like the current price spike.

Finally, the Kurds may be another source of concern: part of the areas engulfed by unrest is also a zone of activity of the Kurdish armed groups. In the past few weeks, Turkey and Iraq have been actively "nightmares" on their territory; It was also reported that on May 16, IRGC artillerymen fired on Kurdish military camps on the Iran-Iraq border. Unable to resist the regular troops on the battlefield, the militants could also use the opportunity to respond at least with street pogroms and thus divert attention from themselves.

Campfire at the gas station


As you know, Iran has many "well-wishers", it is literally surrounded by them from all sides. If these “price riots” happened at any other, relatively “calm” time, one could simply say that they are beneficial to everyone in general (except the Iranians themselves, of course).

But the present time can no longer be called calm, even in quotation marks, and this changes a lot. In its sanctions campaign against Russia, the "free world" has beaten itself - so far, not with a devastating score, but rather painfully - and the creation of additional hotbeds of tension is now completely out of hand for the West.

Sources, all as one, draw attention to the fact that the main heat of unrest in Iran falls on the main oil-producing regions of the country. It can hardly be argued that this is someone's subtle strategic plan, or just a coincidence; but even if it is a coincidence, it is extremely “successful”: it is obvious that the further escalation of the civil conflict will put oil production in jeopardy. And although the main volume of Iranian "black gold" goes to Asian markets, interruptions in supplies will cause panic and a new round of speculation everywhere at once - and then "price riots" may begin in the West.

In this regard, the official reaction of the United States is characteristic - more precisely, its almost complete absence: as during the events in Kazakhstan at the beginning of this year, the Americans limited themselves to the on-duty “air kiss” to the “freedom fighters”. About some kind of support for them, at least in the form of political statements or threats are out of the question.

But Israel stepped up. Politicians and the military of the Jewish Republic clearly see the instability in Iran as a chance to do away with its nuclear program, and even with the ayatollah regime itself. At the end of May, large exercises of the Israel Defense Forces are to begin on the Syrian border, according to the scenario of which strikes against targets in Iran will also be practiced.

However, the Israelis soberly assess their capabilities, and are not going to start a war alone - but, like many others in this world, they dream of kicking a big enemy with American soldiers' boots. But, as mentioned above, "Uncle Sam" is not up to the Middle East problems now; he was not even taken by the terrible forecast from the Israeli Ministry of Defense that the Iranians, having accumulated enough weapons-grade plutonium, would be able to start assembling the first nuclear bomb in a few weeks.

But in the matter of finally resolving the Iranian issue, help to Israel may come from a slightly unexpected direction - from Turkey. For her, Iran is quite an obvious competitor on the way to hegemony in the macroregion.

Although clashes between Turkish proxy puppets and Iranian troops have already taken place in Syria, an open conflict with today's Iran is still unbearable for Turkey: for all the weaknesses of the Iranian economy and the shortcomings of the armed forces, the opponents' potentials are more or less comparable. Given these inputs, betting on undermining Iran's stability from within promises great benefits. Here it is appropriate to recall the OMIN, for the sake of seizing power from the former allies in the anti-Shah revolution, ready to work for anyone. And with the “Syrianization” of Iran, the same oil-bearing provinces will be an excellent acquisition for the future pan-Turkic empire. And, most importantly, the damage that hypothetical fluctuations in the oil and gas market can cause to the Western “Indians” is of little concern to “Sheriff” Erdogan.

So far, events in Iran are developing, for the most part, as usual. It will be possible to judge the active intervention of third countries in them - or the absence of such - already at the beginning of the calendar summer.
10 comments
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  1. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 25 May 2022 20: 19
    +1
    Russia could help Iran with wheat supplies. It's bad that Iran is bad with ports in the Caspian Sea
  2. Bakht Online Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 25 May 2022 21: 16
    0
    Everything is very uncertain. So far, only one scenario is visible: in Iran, food is really bad. Where is good now? In Sri Lanka, the riots are worse than those in Iran.

    And food supplies can be carried out through the North-South route. Only now it has not been completed for several years precisely because of the Iranian section of the railway.
  3. Sergey Pavlenko Offline Sergey Pavlenko
    Sergey Pavlenko (Sergey Pavlenko) 25 May 2022 21: 23
    +1
    Everywhere in the World, where discord begins, one feels a hand from across the ocean, it has always been like this and will continue until this hegemon disappears ... let's wait, wait, maybe V.V.'s prediction will come true. Zhirinovsky.
  4. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 25 May 2022 22: 28
    0
    It is not a problem to supply wheat to Iran, if there is a request. A grain carrier from Novorossiysk to the Persian Gulf for a maximum of two weeks, it is also possible through the Caspian Sea.
  5. tkot973 Offline tkot973
    tkot973 (Konstantin) 25 May 2022 22: 41
    +2
    I completely disagree with the fact that the creation of additional hotbeds of tension for the West is now completely out of hand.
    The West is now desperately trying to rebuild the entire world order. To survive. And what their strategists have in mind, only they know. The West apparently needs a general global chaos.
    They wanted to spit on price riots at home, as well as on everything else that is not critical for the chosen path. Plus or minus a million souls is like garbage to them. If their own rebels, they will shoot everyone, since FEMA is not in vain eating the budget, there are enough coffins and prisons for everyone. But the Iranians cannot be shot, just like many others, therefore they solve the problem differently. As well as with Russia. Those. each - on a separate hemorrhoids. Iranians - rebellion, us - Ukraine, China - Thailand, and so on.
    1. Vermont Offline Vermont
      Vermont (Aslan Tsoutiev) 26 May 2022 04: 04
      +2
      Russia can also be blamed for the "benefit" of the riots and confusion in Iran. Oil production in Iran will fall, the price of oil on the international market will rise. And Russia now needs money. So it can be "profitable" for many ...
  6. Victorio Offline Victorio
    Victorio (Victorio) 26 May 2022 07: 54
    -1
    it would be nice if china helped iran
  7. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 26 May 2022 09: 24
    +1
    What did they want.

    to an explosive, 3-5 times, jump in prices.

    They will write again - the State Department is to blame, terrible liberals, endogan and Brussels ... they raised prices, directly attacked Iran ...
  8. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 26 May 2022 09: 28
    0
    The Persian Gulf region is of strategic importance for the world economy because of its oil and gas resources.
    Most of the state formations in the region did not support the Western sanctions imposed against the Russian Federation and China.
    Putting the region “in its place” is critically important for the West, and therefore, with a high degree of probability, undercover political and economic activation of the West should be expected in the region, and in the case of the stubbornness of individual sheikhs, “democratic” coups d’état.
    Iran is Israel's old headache, and during the war with the Russian Federation and butting with the PRC, it was transferred to the entire collective West. Apparently it's time to try one way or another to get rid of it.
  9. ivan2022 Offline ivan2022
    ivan2022 (ivan2022) 30 May 2022 08: 50
    0
    And we are familiar. Monarchists from the West will find quite a few supporters among the "patriots".

    We, in a democratic country, also have completely legal Internet sites operating under the slogan "Orthodoxy, Autocracy, Nationality."
    Heh. Heh ..... Nobody will object to Orthodoxy and nationality?

    It is even strange that formally anti-constitutional media are considered "simply patriotic" in our country