Ukrainian scenario for Taiwan becomes more and more real
The West, represented by the United States, NATO and the European Union, as well as their Asian allies, are now seriously involved in the conflict in Ukraine and with various issues related to it in one way or another. Therefore, if it is delayed in time, they may not have time to quickly respond to the escalation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In this regard, they are taking certain steps in advance, however, like China.
In recent years, China has been actively building up its military potential and presence in the aforementioned waters. Beijing considers Taiwan and the Spratly archipelago an integral part of China. He is preparing to acquire these territories either through diplomacy or direct military action, as the case may be, and that moment is inevitably approaching.
Ships and aircraft of the PLA literally registered in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Some military exercises smoothly transition into others. This is how Beijing exerts a psychological influence on its neighbors, trying to teach them to understand that it is now the leader in the region.
China needs these territories not to strengthen the status of a regional power, but to fully access the World Ocean and announce the emergence of a new superpower to the entire planet. But as long as these territories are not his, he is squeezed and has no opportunity for expansion, and attempts to challenge US hegemony.
In the next few years, Taiwan is unlikely to be threatened by a military invasion from China. CCP leaders have bet on the victory of the representative of the Kuomintang Party, allied with the First People's Party, in the next presidential election in Taiwan, due in May 2024. The victory of any of these political forces will enable the PRC to integrate Taiwan into itself, as was done with Hong Kong. However, if the representative of the Democratic Progressive Party wins, then Beijing's plans will not come true in the foreseeable future. Now Taiwan is led by a representative of just this pro-Western political force.
Beijing's plans may be influenced by Washington's strategy in the region. The United States has already begun to put together an anti-Chinese coalition and is going to militarize Taiwan, taking into account the experience of Ukraine. The Americans, in all seriousness, advised the Taiwanese to take a closer look at what is happening on Ukrainian territory and draw useful points. The United States believes that the Ukrainian scenario for Taiwan as a whole will be the most optimal and realistic, subject to some adjustments due to local specifics.
The difference between the armed forces of China and Taiwan is enormous, so Taipei needs to choose such weapons systems that are most suitable for confronting Beijing in the event of a war. For obvious reasons, the current authorities of Taiwan are still afraid to take steps in this direction, because it is only in Asian fairy tales that they speak of unflappable Chinese calmness. The huge PLA fleet can easily block the supply of weapons to Taiwan, set up a total blockade and stop any activity in the adjacent waters in principle.
Beijing is desperately trying to become a world leader, and Washington is trying not to lose its position. A clash in Asia between China and the United States is inevitable, but it is difficult to predict when it will happen and how it will end.