Ukrainian scenario for Taiwan becomes more and more real

The West, represented by the United States, NATO and the European Union, as well as their Asian allies, are now seriously involved in the conflict in Ukraine and with various issues related to it in one way or another. Therefore, if it is delayed in time, they may not have time to quickly respond to the escalation in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In this regard, they are taking certain steps in advance, however, like China.

In recent years, China has been actively building up its military potential and presence in the aforementioned waters. Beijing considers Taiwan and the Spratly archipelago an integral part of China. He is preparing to acquire these territories either through diplomacy or direct military action, as the case may be, and that moment is inevitably approaching.

Ships and aircraft of the PLA literally registered in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. Some military exercises smoothly transition into others. This is how Beijing exerts a psychological influence on its neighbors, trying to teach them to understand that it is now the leader in the region.

China needs these territories not to strengthen the status of a regional power, but to fully access the World Ocean and announce the emergence of a new superpower to the entire planet. But as long as these territories are not his, he is squeezed and has no opportunity for expansion, and attempts to challenge US hegemony.

In the next few years, Taiwan is unlikely to be threatened by a military invasion from China. CCP leaders have bet on the victory of the representative of the Kuomintang Party, allied with the First People's Party, in the next presidential election in Taiwan, due in May 2024. The victory of any of these political forces will enable the PRC to integrate Taiwan into itself, as was done with Hong Kong. However, if the representative of the Democratic Progressive Party wins, then Beijing's plans will not come true in the foreseeable future. Now Taiwan is led by a representative of just this pro-Western political force.

Beijing's plans may be influenced by Washington's strategy in the region. The United States has already begun to put together an anti-Chinese coalition and is going to militarize Taiwan, taking into account the experience of Ukraine. The Americans, in all seriousness, advised the Taiwanese to take a closer look at what is happening on Ukrainian territory and draw useful points. The United States believes that the Ukrainian scenario for Taiwan as a whole will be the most optimal and realistic, subject to some adjustments due to local specifics.

The difference between the armed forces of China and Taiwan is enormous, so Taipei needs to choose such weapons systems that are most suitable for confronting Beijing in the event of a war. For obvious reasons, the current authorities of Taiwan are still afraid to take steps in this direction, because it is only in Asian fairy tales that they speak of unflappable Chinese calmness. The huge PLA fleet can easily block the supply of weapons to Taiwan, set up a total blockade and stop any activity in the adjacent waters in principle.

Beijing is desperately trying to become a world leader, and Washington is trying not to lose its position. A clash in Asia between China and the United States is inevitable, but it is difficult to predict when it will happen and how it will end.
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  1. skeptic Offline skeptic
    skeptic 22 May 2022 22: 08
    A clash in Asia between China and the United States is inevitable, but it is difficult to predict when it will happen and how it will end.

    As Russia deals with the United States, the Chinese will catch up. Not earlier.
  2. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 22 May 2022 23: 07
    Unlike Russia, China in 2005, China adopted the "Law on Counteracting the Split of the State." According to the document, in the event of a threat to the peaceful reunification of the mainland and Taiwan, the PRC government is obliged to resort to force and other necessary methods to preserve its territorial integrity. The People's Republic of China legislated that Taiwan is the territory of China.
    Russia needs a similar law. It is necessary to legislate that the territory of Ukraine, seized by the separatists with the help of NATO, is the property of Russia.
    Then, in accordance with the Law, the military operation carried out by Russia in Ukraine is the liberation of the territory of Russia occupied by separatists, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia.
    The presence of the Law will give certainty about the future to citizens living on the territory of Ukraine, they will not have to be afraid of the fascist regime. All actions of the Russian Army on the territory of Ukraine will comply with the Law. The law will not allow NATO to intervene, to bring troops from Poland, Romania, Hungary into the territory of Ukraine, and the annexation of Ukraine by these countries will automatically disappear.
    The absence of a law stating that the territory of Ukraine is the property of Russia allows Russia's enemies to interpret the ongoing special military operation as aggression and occupation by Russia and allows NATO countries to annex this no man's territory.
    There is only one decision on Ukraine in favor of the people of Russia. The state of Ukraine must cease to exist. The entire territory of Ukraine should return to Russia, in the form of regions and republics. There is no need to ask permission from anyone, everything must be done unilaterally. There is no state of Ukraine, there are no debts, there is no government of Ukraine in exile, there are no Ukrainian participants in various international organizations, there is no hostile state on the border of Russia.
    If the state of Ukraine is left, then today and in the future, Russia will always have a headache. Ukraine will definitely join NATO. Everything that is promised and will be spelled out in the Constitution of Ukraine, in its documents, Ukraine will change, in the way that is beneficial to the United States and its satellites.
  3. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 23 May 2022 00: 00
    The status of a superpower is affirmed by the power of the economy, and the PRC is the largest economy in the world and the armed forces must correspond to it.
    The Diaoyu Islands, Xisha, Nansha are historically Chinese, actually torn away from China during the colonial period.
    Access to maritime trade routes for the PRC is also vital for Japan and South Korea. That is why the United States created three lines of naval blockade, opposes the establishment of relations between India and China, put together QUAD and AUKUS, leased nuclear submarines to Australia and attracts NATO to the region.
    The whole world recognizes the province of Taiwan as part of China, and if the United States does not provoke, the PRC will never launch a military invasion of one of its provinces.
    A Kuomintang victory does not in any way guarantee unification, because the US will not make the mistake of Britain in unifying Hong Kong under the policy of “one country, two systems”
  4. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) 23 May 2022 03: 02
    Let the Chinese return theirs, no options.
  5. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 23 May 2022 05: 53
    The Ukrainian scenario for Taiwan is becoming more and more real.

    Yes Yes. If earlier the probability of such a scenario was 0,1%, now the probability has increased two or even three times. So stock up on popcorn and wait. There is very little time left to wait. No more than 12-15 years.
    1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
      Bulanov (Vladimir) 23 May 2022 09: 01
      There is very little time left to wait. No more than 12-15 years.

      Everything will happen after the next CCP Congress.
      1. Expert_Analyst_Forecaster 23 May 2022 11: 55
        This is how they live now after another CCP congress.
        And ten years ago they lived after another CCP congress.
        And in 15 years they will live after the next Congress of the CPC.
  6. alexey alexeyev_2 (Alexey Alekseev) 23 May 2022 18: 48
    Why pull. Now is the time for China. They will miss it - for another 50 years they will lick their lips at Taiwan.
  7. Enoch Offline Enoch
    Enoch (Enoch) 23 May 2022 19: 33
    East is a delicate matter -

    And a fly, clinging to the tail of a horse, can travel a thousand li.

    And on the example of Japan, groveling before the w / killers of millions of its fellow citizens, it is also ungrateful.
  8. vo2022smysl Offline vo2022smysl
    vo2022smysl (Common sense) 23 May 2022 19: 49
    May 23, 2022, News:

    United States President Joe Biden on Monday, May 23, announced the readiness of US military participation in the defense of Taiwan "in the event of an invasion." "We remain committed to maintaining the peace and security of the Taiwan Strait and are determined to ensure that its status quo is not unilaterally changed," Biden said at a joint press conference with Japanese Premier Fumio Kishida.
  9. Roma Phil Offline Roma Phil
    Roma Phil (Roma) 24 May 2022 03: 17
    A showdown in Asia between China and the US is inevitable

    The faster the better.