Western expert: Russia withstood sanctions that China could not endure


With the start of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, sanctions of unprecedented quality and quantity were introduced against the Russian Federation. However, after almost three months, it becomes clear that the restrictions did not work, and economy Russia did not collapse under their weight. Why did this happen? Josh Owens, financial analyst at OilPrice, answers this question.


According to the expert, despite Ukraine's "outstanding" resistance and the application of a package of aggressive sanctions against Russia, there seems to be no end in sight to the conflict in Europe. So far, much of the analysis of the situation carried out by experts has focused on Russia's military failures, the behavior of President Volodymyr Zelensky, and the surprisingly united reaction of the international community. However, what is often overlooked is the resilience of the Russian economy when it comes to surviving sanctions.

In a globalized world that is already suffering from supply chain problems, energy shortages and economic recession, it is rather strange to see the phenomenon that sanctions have failed to bring the Russian economy to its knees. In this regard, it is better for the Russian financial and economic system to stay away from the macroeconomics of the Western world, since it is precisely this that is an element of instability and can, with even greater involvement of the Russian Federation in international relations, drag it down to the bottom. Insulation in this case is not the worst solution.

The ruble, which sank heavily in March, is now trading at record highs. However, as Owens notes, the real market for the sale of currency, of course, differs from the nominal exchange rate (the difference between the normative economy and the real one), and yet the national currency has stood the test. If you look objectively, Russia has withstood sanctions that even China could not endure.

It is the unique position of the Russian Federation as a net exporter of both energy carriers and basic foodstuffs that has allowed it to stay afloat. If similar sanctions were imposed on a net importer such as China, then the deindustrialization of the Asian giant, famine and riots would eventually be expected. It would be a disaster. But not for Russia.

The government's plan to bail out the economy from sanctions has one Achilles heel. All the measures taken by the state leadership are forced and urgent, they do not provide for a long-term perspective. Ultimately, the expert believes, the sanctions can still work, but this requires a long-term impact on Moscow.
  • Photos used: pixabay.com
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  1. Bulanov Offline Bulanov
    Bulanov (Vladimir) 20 May 2022 09: 31
    +1
    Ultimately, the expert believes, the sanctions can still work, but this requires a long-term impact on Moscow.

    And how will the West itself feel for many years to come? The EU without Russian energy carriers will be bent (its industry). C / X is also in question. In Ukraine, the harvest is likely to fail. Well, if they collect half of what was planned. And Russia needs to start industrialization. Build affordable public housing, as it was in the USSR. Develop your medicine and pharmacology. If specialists from the West feel that life is better in Russia, they will rush to Russia to earn money, as was the case under Catherine II. Even Napoleon asked for Russian service.
    1. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) 20 May 2022 10: 05
      -1
      many of us are arguing about this: how long Europe and the United States will last .... as the comrade said below: we'll chew, we'll see. the main thing is that we have something to chew on, and foreigners (and our residents who care for them) can also do mischief
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 May 2022 09: 37
    +3
    All this Josh Owens understands, I suppose, only pretends. If hydrocarbons - 40% of the country's exports, are becoming more expensive, and also metals (out of sanctions), timber, grain and other neo-colonial goods, then what could collapse then? there is nothing to fall quickly.

    the fact that Muscovites will pay for foreign cars at tripartite prices? so wash. Everything is as usual.
    The dollar is slightly cheaper, goods are becoming more expensive - the elite "takes its toll" on the domestic market
  3. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 20 May 2022 09: 38
    +2
    Russia withstood sanctions that China could not have endured

    Probably, it would be worthwhile to refrain from victorious reports for the time being. As world practice shows, the effect of the application of sanctions never manifests itself immediately. The economy of any state has some margin of safety. On average, to assess the effectiveness of sanctions, it is necessary to wait from 6 to 12 months in order to sum up some results, make the first analyzes and forecasts. So, let's wait and see. Of course, it is highly desirable that the slogan in the headline of the material become a reality, and not remain an expectation.
  4. chemurij Offline chemurij
    chemurij (chemurij) 20 May 2022 10: 01
    -2
    Ultimately, the expert believes, the sanctions can still work, but this requires a long-term impact on Moscow.

    Do they have that longevity, that is the question. They don't have it, that's a statement.
  5. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 20 May 2022 11: 47
    +1
    It is the unique position of the Russian Federation as a net exporter of both energy carriers and basic foodstuffs that has allowed it to stay afloat. If similar sanctions were imposed on a net importer such as China, then the deindustrialization of the Asian giant, famine and riots would eventually be expected. It would be a disaster. But not for Russia.

    So: to be an energy/raw material superpower is happiness???