Dollar for 30, euro - 40: how long will the ruble strengthen

13 May 2022 26

For the prize for the most unfaithful economic the 2022 forecast claims President Biden's promise that $1 will be worth 200 rubles in Russia. Today, the "American" set another anti-record, dropping below 63 rubles apiece. Thus, the dollar left the corridor of 65-75 rubles, which numerous experts and analysts predicted for him as "comfortable". What's next? Will 1 dollar again cost 30 rubles, and euro - 40, and what will this mean for the Russian economy?

The respected information and analytical agency Bloomberg called the Russian ruble the best among world currencies in relation to the US one. Our "wooden" was not so wooden, having strengthened immediately by 11% in relation to the indicators of the beginning of the year. If we compare it with the rate that was at the very beginning of the special military operation in Ukraine, when an “American” cost around 120 rubles, then the growth of the ruble looks absolutely fantastic. So why, instead of breaking through the bar of 200 rubles per dollar, the Russian ruble is only getting stronger?

It grows by leaps and bounds

What is happening now on the Moscow Exchange is determined by a whole range of factors. The greatest contribution was made by the measures taken by the financial authorities of the country.

At first, cash transactions were limited, and the export of more than $10 abroad was prohibited.

Secondly, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree forcing exporters to sell up to 80% of their foreign exchange earnings.

Thirdly, in settlements for Russian gas with countries from the list of "unfriendly" the state corporation "Gazprom" switched to Russian rubles. At first, European consumers turned up their noses at our national currency, but today more than two dozen foreign companies have opened their settlement accounts with Gazprombank. As they say, if you want to live, you won't get so upset. Naturally, the demand for rubles increased sharply. However, these are far from all the factors forcing the ruble to continuously strengthen against the dollar and the euro.

Fourthly, the volumes of imports from abroad, the calculations in which were carried out in foreign currency, fell very strongly. This is a direct consequence of anti-Russian Western sanctions that have limited the supply of a wide range of equipment and of technologies to our country.

Fifthly, foreign tourist trips for Russians are now limited, the cost of vouchers has increased markedly, and there is no way to go to Europe at all. The demand for cash dollars and euros has seriously fallen because of this, and the already familiar Visa and MasterCard cards abroad do not work for us now. They say that with a scratch you can pay with cards of the Chinese UnionPay payment system.

Finally, a relatively strong ruble is beneficial for the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to reduce inflation and control rising prices on the shelves. According to the regulator's pessimistic estimates, inflation could reach 23%:

We forecast annual inflation to be 18,0-23,0% in 2022, drop to 5,0-7,0% in 2023, and return to 4% in 2024.

Such anti-records, which will require significant budget expenditures, are not needed by the authorities. As a result, the ruble is growing, while the dollar and the euro are getting cheaper. Our national currency has already left the "comfortable" range of 65-75 rubles per dollar. Will it continue to grow?

Why the fall is inevitable

Further weakening of the ruble against the dollar and the euro is inevitable, since it is inherent in the very structure of the Russian federal budget, which is drawn up based on the value of the dollar at 75 rubles in 2022 and 74 rubles in 2023. The domestic economy has a pronounced export character, therefore, both the exporters themselves and the federal center, which collects taxes from them, benefit from the ruble being weak against the American and European currencies in which settlements are traditionally carried out. Here is how President Putin commented on this alignment back in 2014:

And what does this mean for the Russian budget? We do not calculate it in dollars. The value of the ruble has fallen, it has depreciated a little... by 30%... But look: we used to sell goods that cost a dollar and received 32 rubles for it. And now we get 45 rubles for the same product priced in a dollar. Budget revenues increased, not decreased.

Yes, the semi-state Gazprom is trying to convert payments for gas into rubles, but the private energy company NOVATEK, for example, is relieved of this obligation, Dmitry Peskov, press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, explained:

The President did not differentiate in any way, but the instruction was to Gazprom. That is, in this case, there was no instruction for NOVATEK. Actually, NOVATEK is a company, there can hardly be a direct order there. That is, what kind of assignment is a directive to Gazprom. After all, Gazprom is an international company, but the main owner is the state.

Also, despite all the appeals, payments are still made in foreign currency for Russian oil, timber, grain, metals and other resources supplied abroad. There is nothing to be surprised here, since the story with gas is more политическая.

The foregoing gives us reason to believe that soon the Central Bank of the Russian Federation itself will begin to actively weaken the ruble against the dollar and the euro in order to return its exchange rate to a “comfortable” corridor from 65 to 75 per “American”. A dollar for 30 rubles and a euro for 40 - this is now possible only with the complete de-dollarization of the Russian economy.

Sergey Marzhetsky
Niktimin/wikimedia.org

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Vladimir Golubenko

+8

13 May 2022 16: 50

But why should he weaken the ruble himself? I was not asked when they began to weaken the ruble from 32 p. and reached 80 rubles! And now you see, they again want to weaken it to please our (not getting drunk) "oligarchs". Allegedly oligarchs, legalized thieves and robbers of the Russian people. It's time for your people to think and not tell that a weak ruble is good for the people. A boon for all those who stole and steal public money
1. Then
  
  -5
  
  13 May 2022 17: 16
  
  Quote: Vladimir Golubenko
  But why should he weaken the ruble himself?
  
  You are obviously not an economist, and due to, perhaps, age-related reasons, you cannot understand that the receipt of tax from the proceeds of 120 rubles per 000 cubic meters to the treasury of the country is better than from the proceeds of 1000, and the larger the treasury, the better for the people . Therefore, it is better for you not to read such difficult thoughts and, moreover, not to discuss publicly.
  1. Roma Phil
    
    +7
    
    13 May 2022 22: 45
    
    I'm not an economist either possibly due to age , not understanding.
    If a lot of "cheap" currency has accumulated in the country, then why is this currency lying as a "dead" load, and not used for the benefit of the people?
    For example, for the purchase of necessary goods, production equipment, technologies, ships and machines. All this is possessed not only by the West, but also by the East. The same China, India, South. Korea and almost all countries of South. America. They will not refuse to sell their goods for dollars and euros.
    And I'm sorry, but I've decided this discuss publicly , that's why he and the forum so that everyone can discuss their thoughts publicly
    1. zloybond
      
      +2
      
      14 May 2022 21: 00
      
      Yes, China is now heavily spending dollars, They are buying up as much as possible, ports, land, they are investing green papers in everything that is possible while you can still spend them.
      Another question is that our prices did not react to this in any way. The ruble strengthened well, BUT it is not visible that the prices of imported goods began to fall just as happily.
    2. Polente the Wanderer
      
      0
      
      15 May 2022 20: 48
      
      purchase of necessary goods, production equipment, technologies, ships and machines.
      
      We were limited before, and now even more so in the purchase of high-tech equipment ... In general, the "elephant" is small and those who have money saw more, they have more means of influencing decision-makers. It is clear that the ordinary population does not have these means of influence ...
  2. Polente the Wanderer
    
    0
    
    15 May 2022 20: 41
    
    So raise the tax on billionaires, millionaires to 50%. And the tax collection will be greater if the minimum wages, pensions increase at least 2 times. After all, the poor first of all buy food and the rest in Russia, and not abroad. And the sales tax and personal income tax they will grow accordingly. And cut salaries + other incomes of VIP officials by 2-5 times and generally equalize all income (salary and additional finances) with the average in the country. All the same, they spend money over the hill depending on the level of income either on yachts or resorts, real estate...
Bulanov

+7

13 May 2022 16: 51

Here in America and England, the dollar and the pound are strong and nothing, the economy looks better than in Russia. and if Russia strengthens the ruble, it must certainly get worse? For whom is it worse? American citizens with a strong dollar, even now, are doing quite well compared to other countries.
Vladimir Golubenko

+5

13 May 2022 16: 59

For some reason, in the USSR, when a dollar was worth 60 kopecks of ours, no one was a beggar. And now they are proving that it will be good when the ruble is cheap! The benefit will be to all who are over the hill and our thieves. Amers will benefit! Geirope will benefit! The dollar is actually an empty piece of paper, and they prove to us that the ruble - guaranteed to be backed by our gold, goods, all the property of Russia - costs about one cent! And this is compared with a country in which 80% of the budget is services! Who sits in our finances and in the state bank? Bedding. Put the normal patriots of Russia.
Sergey Latyshev

+5

13 May 2022 17: 14

Yes, the authorities can hang any noodles to make money.
After Covid, the bigwigs from the Kremlin unanimously convinced that high inflation = economic growth.
And where is this growth and their former promises now? it’s clear where, in the bins of the oligarchs ...
1_2

+2

13 May 2022 17: 27

that is, the government of the Russian Federation, when necessary, can not only stop the weakening of the ruble, but also strengthen it (this is not a tricky thing), which means the depreciation of the ruble (the impoverishment of the people and hyper inflation) after the default of 1998 (the dollar rose from 6 rubles to 22-24 rubles) entirely on the conscience of the local authorities, which should have been proved!

That is, you just need to stop theft and export of capital to offshore companies (by embezzlers of public funds, oligarchs-bandits, foreign companies, importers, gasters), remove speculators (private banks are parasites) and NATO currency saboteurs-brokers from the foreign exchange market, partially limit the sale of currency into the hands of the population (under the pillows) and voila! we will get a strong stable ruble exchange rate, which Russian producers need like air to fill at least the domestic market of the Russian Federation! ... but no, it turns out to be an almost socialist model of the economy, and this is no longer acceptable for the liberals in power, for this their West can deprive all foreign property! therefore, for all 30 years they have been pushing us that "the invisible hand of the market will destroy everything by itself" ... but they do not specify what will destroy only in their foreign pocket. what about the King? and he is only engaged in foreign policy, trying with a holey caftan to cover the borders of the Russian Federation from enemies with whom his liberals keep their grandmothers .. (and he is afraid to appoint liberals to posts because of his liberal selfish convictions and faith in the power of wealth money), The tsar does not fumble at all in economics, although he is a candidate of economic sciences)) or pretends that he does not fumble, because there is nowhere else to spend huge money hundreds of millions (for yourself), except in the West, because everything is expensive there
Sotnalex

-3

13 May 2022 18: 18

As always, some are for the strengthening of the ruble, some are for weakening. If you do not understand the financial intricacies. The standard exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar is laid down in the state budget. It's like pressure on a person. It is bad when it is higher, and it is not good if it is lower. We need a norm for the economy to be manageable.
For the ruble, it is more important not even the exchange rate itself, but its stability, the volatility of the currency. Again, like a person's pressure, it's very bad when it jumps. Therefore, a comfortable exchange rate for the ruble is 65-67 rubles per $1.
1. Observer2014
  
  0
  
  13 May 2022 21: 18
  
  Therefore, a comfortable exchange rate for the ruble is 65-67 rubles per $1.
  
  You need to give you a Russian pension of 13000 for life, so that the brain starts to work really. And then we will listen to your odes about "volatility".
  1. Sotnalex
    
    0
    
    15 May 2022 21: 05
    
    My wife receives a pension of 8000 rubles for life as an invalid since childhood. True, I did not understand how your pension is related to the ruble exchange rate. What do you think, that if the ruble strengthens prices will be lower, yeah, keep your pocket wider. Prices will fall only on imported goods. Which you don't buy with your pension. The rate of inflation and the exchange rate of the ruble are different processes. By the way, now the ruble is strengthening, and inflation is growing (prices are rising). Odes had to be listened to at institutes in political economy courses
gorenina91

-1

13 May 2022 19: 46

Dollar for 30, euro - 40: how long will the ruble strengthen

- Oh, personally, I don't even want to discuss such nonsense!
- It's high time to create a "euro-ruble" - this is a ruble for settlement with the countries of Western Europe and the USA (and other Americans); moreover, not a ruble to pay only for Russian ones - oil and gas - namely, to pay for all Russian goods and raw materials that Russia exports! - But it's only with them!
- But with India and China, a different settlement system will be needed. - But this is even good for Russia - there will be an extra "gap" in relations: "India - the West and the USA"; "China - the West and the USA"; "India China".
- Damn, it's time for Russia to divide and cooperate; not to unite and cooperate! - It's time to tie up with universal "Russian humanism" and "universal equality and fraternity"! - Hindu gypsies - you can't change it anyway - they are only interested in their own benefit; and China - in any social order and political economic state system - always cares only about its own interests - and for others, China will not lift a finger! - Well, and the other states of our planet - it's not worth talking about them - they are "for denyuzhka" - "they will hand over everyone" and "they will sell everyone"! - Something like this !
Observer2014

0

13 May 2022 21: 12

There is such a vile Russian fun to spread rot on your people. In full. At the same time, scratch about patriotism. I plunge my own people into poverty with a cheap ruble. And real inflation. The economic policy of the Kremlin has been causing gag reflexes for a very long time.
1. Vladimir Orlov
  
  0
  
  14 May 2022 02: 00
  
  exactly. and foreign policy, and the judiciary too.
  could be explained by incompetence (it’s enough to listen to Nabiulina), but perhaps everything is a little more confusing - that if now the “family” accumulates currency at a good rate (it’s impossible to withdraw), but when restrictions are lifted, they will buy real estate “there” in a new way, and everything that is needed is up-buyed "here" for the currency that has risen in price. 100-200% earnings for the year "out of thin air".
  Therefore, I put on a 2-fold growth of "green" in a year. But be careful if you decide to buy currency on the stock exchange through a broker - when it’s profitable for them, they can forcibly convert it (this happened with my currency savings at Finam - these nits didn’t even warn. I don’t know yet if going to court will give anything). Better with commission losses, but on paper.
Larisa Z.

+1

13 May 2022 21: 22

Comrades, why so many emotions on the screen and online. A bunch of experts are talking nonsense. Dollar, euro, yuan... the rate is up, down, why do you need a currency? Russia has real resources, goods and services. Everything, without exception, must be sold for the Russian currency and you will be happy. And the West will already consider the exchange rate of the ruble. Only then will there be respect for Russia ...
1. Observer2014
  
  -1
  
  13 May 2022 21: 30
  
  Comrades, why so many emotions on the screen and online. A bunch of experts are talking nonsense. Dollar, euro, yuan... the rate is up, down, why do you need a currency? Russia has real resources, goods and services. Everything, without exception, must be sold for the Russian currency and you will be happy. And the West will already consider the exchange rate of the ruble. Only then will there be respect for Russia ...
  
  Yes, this is already a no-brainer. Only who will implement it? With such a gourmet, stretch the pleasure at the head, sorry. From the latter. I almost fell asleep while listening to the lecture on February 23 and the last super-Chinese warning to Ukraine .. And on the morning of February 24, getting ready for work, I did not even hope to hear the announcement of the special operation to hear the end. It all cost only 20 minutes, I managed to listen to it.
  Brevity is the soul of wit.
Vladimir Orlov

+1

14 May 2022 01: 42

soon the Central Bank of the Russian Federation itself will begin to actively weaken the ruble against the dollar and the euro

Sooner or later, even a ram becomes clear that the pillar is stronger. But practice shows that our Central Bank acts so unpredictably (which is good in war, but not in finance) due to incompetence (it's not me, but an academician, Doctor of Economics, S.Yu. Glazyev said) that you can wait for a long time. It is now clear that the Central Bank simply does not know what to do, since earlier the excess of currency from oil / gas was balanced by the purchase of foreign financial assets: American and Eurobonds, deposits in Eurobanks, etc. (which, in principle, is the standard model of relations between developed and underdeveloped (...) economics), and now the sanctions do not allow it.

And since the exchange rate is completely decoupled from inflation due to the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, it is pointless to try to reduce it by maintaining a high rate, but due to the fact that now the main component of inflation is not demand-side inflation (deficit of goods), but cost-push inflation (growth in production costs) - and this includes expensive loans - and just because of the high% rate of the Central Bank, it is also the opposite of the goal.

What is the reason, it is difficult to explain with logic: it is either "if a person goes, then this is for a long time", or sabotage, or actions in the interests of the oligarchs.

Either Nabiulina does not shop at Pyaterochka stores, and does not know that never once imported buckwheat-sugar-pasta-vegetables will become cheaper after 50% growth. I wish her to take a string bag and run for groceries, maybe she will finally understand her idiocy. Otherwise, GDP will collapse by more than 12% by the new year, because our salaries do not grow by these 50% and, as in a joke: "now you will eat less, son" ...

The actions of the Central Bank to create an "iron financial curtain" also contradict another important goal - the recognition of the ruble as an international payment instrument and reserve currency, since this requires FREE CONVERSION (circulation, exchange) on the international market.

It looks like we are still driven into a stall under slogans. I'm going to re-read "1984".
Nikolai A

+1

14 May 2022 05: 37

And how does the dollar exchange rate affect the rise in prices of domestic goods?
Cereals have risen in price by 100%.
Sunflower oil by 40%.
Ordinary Ostankino dumplings by 40%. Etc.
And why do they scare us that in Europe food prices have risen by 10%?
1. Pat Rick
  
  -1
  
  14 May 2022 17: 44
  
  The dollar exchange rate directly influences the prices of domestic goods.
  
  Cereals + sunflower oil - seasonal goods: the next harvest is not far away.
Jacques sekavar

0

14 May 2022 09: 56

There is only one way to defend independence in the conditions of a political and economic blockade and war - a return to the Soviet economy, which implies the following:
1. State planning (national projects)
2. Estimated ruble within the state and transferable outside it
3. Linking the exchange rate to the weighted average price of gold
1. Pat Rick
  
  +2
  
  14 May 2022 17: 41
  
  return to the Soviet economy, which implies the following:
  
  The Soviet economy was primarily based on the absence of private ownership of the means of production, which modern Russia cannot boast of.
  The State Planning Committee of the USSR was engaged in the implementation of state planning, and the fruits of its activities do not at all resemble the current national projects.
Pat Rick

+3

14 May 2022 10: 50

A dollar for 30 rubles and a euro for 40 - this is now possible only with the complete de-dollarization of the Russian economy.

With a completely de-dollarization, USD should cost 66 kopecks.
akm8226

0

15 May 2022 15: 25

I still remember the time when the dollar was worth 62 kopecks. So there is room to move.
Vox Populi

0

15 May 2022 19: 16

A note almost on the topic of the article:

… How does this suicidal mechanism turn on and work? Let's take the risk of understanding this on a fresh and well-known example - the arrest of Russia's foreign exchange assets in the West.

http://www.apn-spb.ru/opinions/article35134.htm