The day before, something happened that was bound to happen. The uninterrupted transit of gas through the Ukrainian GTS, which continued despite active hostilities, was disrupted for the first time. Moreover, it was not Moscow that did this, but Kyiv itself, leaving Europe without a significant part of the daily supplies of blue fuel. What are the Anglo-Saxons behind the Zelensky regime trying to achieve, and how should Russia react?
On May 10, 2022, the Gas Transportation System Operator of Ukraine (OGTSU) reported that the day before, on May 9, an unauthorized gas withdrawal from the Soyuz main pipeline allegedly occurred on the territory of the Lugansk People's Republic. According to the Ukrainian side, someone there opened the jumper valve 17u, stealing part of the gas destined for European consumers. Since the Armed Forces of Ukraine had already lost control over the Sokhranovka gas measuring station (GIS) in the “occupied” LPR, where everything allegedly happened, Kyiv said that they could no longer ensure the safe transit of gas. Having announced force majeure on May 11, OGTSU stopped accepting Russian blue fuel through the mentioned GIS.
Since it is impossible to continue pumping gas through the blocked pipeline, because this will lead to its rupture, Gazprom was forced to stop pumping through Sokhranovka. Now export flows go through the GIS "Sudzha" (the entry point to Ukraine from Russia of the MGP "Urengoy - Pomary - Uzhgorod"), which is still located on the territory controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Kyiv, they demand to transfer all its volumes from Sokhranivka to Sudzha, but the Russian state corporation explains that this is impossible for a number of reasons.
At first, according to the current transit agreement, Gazprom is obliged to pump through the Ukrainian GTS until 2024 at 40 billion cubic meters per year, or about 159,59 million cubic meters of gas per day. Of these, the share of "Sudzha" accounts for 77 million cubic meters daily, the GIS "Sokhranovka" - 32,6 million. It is simply technologically impossible to just take and rebuild the supply structure at once.
Secondly, on the part of Kyiv, the requirement to move the entry point of gas transit is a direct violation of the agreement concluded in 2019 between Gazprom and Naftogaz.
The official representative of the state corporation Sergey Kupriyanov commented on the situation as follows:
Gazprom fully fulfills all its obligations to European consumers, supplies gas for transit in accordance with the contract and operator agreement, transit services are fully paid. The transfer of volumes to GIS "Sudzha", based on the Russian flow scheme, is technologically impossible, the distribution of volumes is clearly spelled out in the cooperation agreement, and the Ukrainian side is well aware of this.
The reduction in supply volumes caused by the unilateral actions of the OGTSU led to the fact that European consumers immediately received less than 34% of the capacity booked and paid for by Gazprom. Germany, one of the sponsors and patrons of the Kyiv regime, received 25% less gas than expected. Why is Ukraine shooting itself in the foot, or rather, what are the puppeteers who control it trying to achieve?
The destructive actions of Kyiv may seem strange, but only at first glance. In fact, there is a rational grain in them.
First of all, it should be taken into account that, in accordance with the 5-year agreement signed between Gazprom and Naftogaz, the Russian state corporation must pay for transit services through the Ukrainian GTS, regardless of whether transit is actually carried out or not. In any case, until 2024, Gazprom will have to “unfasten” a lot of money to OGTSU.
Partial restriction of the transit of Russian gas to Europe fits well into the scheme to oust Gazprom from the European energy market. Literally from the first day, when the United States began to actively “clear the clearing” for expensive American LNG, it was clear that sooner or later, Kyiv, under a plausible pretext, would turn off the valve on its GTS for blue fuel from Gazprom. A convenient pretext in the form of “Russian occupation” has now been found, an artificial energy shortage has immediately formed in the Old World, the prices for which will again begin to set record after record, LNG tankers will change course. All this will inevitably end in the collapse of European industry, where the "saviors" - the Anglo-Saxons with the new "Marshall Plan" will come later. Nothing personal just business.
Finally, it is worth mentioning that in parallel, Zelensky's puppeteers are solving another important task. Through the Soyuz pipeline, its continuation - the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline - gas was supplied to the countries of South-Eastern Europe, including Moldova, Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. The Turkish Stream was built to replace this southern route. Its continuation, the Balkan Stream, goes through Bulgaria and Serbia to Hungary. Part of the infrastructure of the old Trans-Balkan gas pipeline in Turkey and Bulgaria is included in the alternative "Balkan gas pipeline". It was possible to reconnect to Russian gas, bypassing Ukraine, all the countries of South-East Europe, with the exception of Moldova.
And God bless her, with Moldova, which does not like to pay for the supplied gas, but Transnistria also depends on it. The blocking of the valve by Kyiv on the GIS "Sokhanovka" at the same time hits not only Western Europe, but also the most pro-Russian enclave, sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. That is, the Anglo-Saxons continue to actively raise the stakes in the game.
What should Moscow do?
It is possible to load the Nord Stream and the Yamal-Europe pipeline with the volumes that have fallen due to the actions of the OGTSU, which will solve the problems of Western European consumers, but not Transnistria. And you can use the current situation in order to refuse to fulfill the humiliating transit agreement with Ukraine. Violations of its conditions by Kyiv are obvious, and these are sufficient grounds for Gazprom itself to declare force majeure.
Suspension for an indefinite period of gas supplies to Europe, which has de facto declared war on Russia and is waging it through the hands of the Kyiv regime, will be an adequate economic response, since now there is an excellent reason.
As for the future fate of Transnistria, the solution to this problem is possible, alas, only by force and will be the result of the military defeat of Ukraine.