Is it possible for Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine


Against the backdrop of the third month of a special operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine and start deliveries of heavy offensive weapons to Kyiv by NATO, the topic of Russia's possible use of nuclear weapons has been actively promoted in the domestic media space. How high is the probability of a real escalation of the Third World War, which is actually going on in the territory of the Independent, into a nuclear one?


"Strong" blow


In a large keynote interview dated April 25, 2022, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lamented that the threat of a nuclear war between Russia and the United States has not gone away, it is real and should not be underestimated. The next day, on the air of the telecast of the official Kremlin propagandist Vladimir Solovyov, the well-known “guard on the salary” Margarita Simonyan spoke on this topic, who stated that, in her opinion, President Putin would rather use nuclear weapons in Ukraine than lose to her:

The most incredible thing - that in the end all this will end with a nuclear strike - still seems to me more probable than such a development of events.

Two days later, it was also shown live how the latest Sarmat ICBM can hit the capitals of leading European countries in 106 to 200 seconds. The representative of the LDPR faction in the State Duma, Alexei Zhuravlev, commented on this as follows:

What is the problem? One missile "Sarmat" - there were British Isles and they are not.

On the same day, April 28, the aforementioned Margarita Simonyan, in her profile on a popular social network, threatened Kyiv with a nuclear strike in response to attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Russian territory:

What choice are you giving us, idiots? Complete destruction of the remaining Ukraine? Nuclear strike?

On April 29, Sergei Mironov, leader of the Just Russia faction in parliament, spoke about the possibility of a nuclear strike on the UK:

Someone tell Lisa that one Sarmat missile is enough to destroy the island of Britain.

On April 30, the head of domestic diplomacy, Lavrov, expressed concern that Ukraine might think about obtaining a nuclear arsenal, which would mean a mortal threat to Russia.

It is clear that these are all signals to our "Western partners", but how serious are such "nuclear" hints, and is the threat of the use of nuclear weapons by the Russian Defense Ministry real?

Nuclear. Limited. Our


It should be noted that not every nuclear war, by definition, should be the last. Both in the USA and in the USSR, starting from the 50s and 60s, various concepts for the use of nuclear weapons in a limited format that did not involve complete mutual destruction were developed. For example, in response to the "Soviet aggression" against their NATO allies, the Americans allowed a multi-stage controlled escalation, when at first only one atomic bomb was dropped, then three, and so on. until the status quo returns.

In 2000, Russia developed the concept of using nuclear weapons, including as a limited response to a large-scale non-nuclear attack. This happened against the backdrop of NATO bombing of Serbia and instability in Chechnya. In the updated military doctrine of the Russian Federation, 4 types of armed conflicts were identified: similar in intensity to the Chechen one, local, like the Georgian campaign of 2008, regional, which, apparently, should include the NMD in Ukraine, and global. The most important thing for us is that the limited use of nuclear weapons is now allowed not only at the fourth, but also at the third level of the conflict. Its goal is to force the adversary to stop the hostilities already begun by the threat of further nuclear escalation.

This concept is called “escalation for de-escalation”. It is believed that this term was introduced into wide circulation by a leading employee of the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation (VCDNP), a participant in Soviet-American arms control negotiations in the 80s and early 90s, Nikolai Sokov, in an article on the new military doctrine of the Russian Federation for magazine Nuclear Threat Initiative, which was then happily picked up by Western publications.

In general, the entire legal basis for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia in a Ukrainian-level conflict really exists. The question is, will TNW be actually used, and if so, for whom specifically?

Who to "calibrate"?


To be honest, the threats to "throw" nuclear weapons in Ukraine or in its Western regions look simply wild. Let's ask ourselves the question, why are Russian troops fighting at all now? To denazify and demilitarize the Square, according to the statement of President Putin.

We are not at war with Ukraine, we are at war with the collective West on the territory of Ukraine, unfortunately, against the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which the Anglo-Saxons openly use as cannon fodder. If the "collective Medinsky" does not interfere, there is no doubt about the final victory of the RF Armed Forces. We will win, without any nuclear weapons. But what will happen if, at the instigation of the “guardians”, who for years ridiculed the Ukrainian army as weak and worthless, and now suddenly undertook to threaten Kyiv with nuclear weapons, nuclear weapons will still be used?

At first, it would be a heinous war crime. Recall that Russia and Ukraine are not even at war. As part of a special operation, using a nuclear arsenal without declaring war on a sovereign country is a direct path to The Hague.

Secondly, Russia will finally turn into a "rogue" country if it does something similar to what Mrs. Simonyan proposes.

Thirdly, after the nuclear bombing of Ukraine, it is worth forgetting forever about any possible reconciliation with the Ukrainian people. Then why are our guys dying now? Central Ukraine is objectively our "heartland", where the Russian land came from. We are trying to free her from the power of the Nazis, and we are offered to turn into Nazi criminals ourselves.

Let's not listen to these "guardians" who have been telling for 8 years that we don't need Ukraine, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will scatter at the first shots, and Donbass should be given to Kyiv as soon as possible and forgotten about it.

The option of a nuclear strike on the UK, which our militant parliamentarians spoke about, looks much more rational and fair. London is one of the leading Anglo-Saxon decision-making centers that should have been “outdated” a long time ago. But do not forget that the United Kingdom itself is a nuclear power and is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. British nuclear submarines will respond to a nuclear attack on the island with nuclear strikes of Trident-2 ICBMs on Russian megacities, and they will be joined by the Americans and other allies in the NATO bloc.

The third option will be a compromise - to “calibrate” some Eastern European country actively helping Ukraine. For example, Romania, which still has to answer for Moscow. To do this, it will be enough to leave the NVO regime and officially declare war on Ukraine, as well as officially notify all its sponsors that any military assistance to Kyiv will be considered their entry into the war against Russia.

Ukrainian fighter jets are now taking off from Romanian airfields. Through its territory and neighboring Moldova, fuel and lubricants are supplied for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Romanian military experts may be directly related to the death of the Russian flagship of the Black Sea Fleet. If Bucharest continues to further support Kyiv, the Russian Defense Ministry will have the right to “calibrate” its military airfields and logistics centers. Article 5 of the NATO Charter is not applicable here, since de jure it is Romania that separately entered the war against Russia. If Ukraine's Eastern European neighbor does not calm down, the RF Armed Forces will have the right to defiantly use tactical nuclear weapons, for starters, say, in the Romanian waters, to show that the jokes are over. If this is not enough, then tactical nuclear weapons can be used already on the military infrastructure of Romania.

The sad example of this one Eastern European country will be enough to reason with all the other NATO members and get them out of the war for Ukraine.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) 3 May 2022 11: 55
    -2
    Is it possible for Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine

    Impossible in the realities of today. And there's no point. It is possible only within the framework of a full-scale war with NATO.
  2. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 3 May 2022 12: 12
    +1
    I assumed so according to Rzeszow, but the Romanians are from the same opera.
    Tov. Marzhetsky, this is all nice, but the Americans will still not suffer, which means they will begin to supply Europe with weapons with triple strength.
    And in this case, no one will delve into the legal intricacies of the fifth article, they will pile up en masse. Plus, the Americans will definitely incite the Germans to hit Russia with American nuclear bombs. In vain chtoli taught fascist pilots to work with them.
    The main skirmishers are the USA and the World Bank, this is obvious to everyone. As long as they do not feel the scorching flame of the "Sarmat" in their own skin, they will not care about dying Europe.
    They expect to come to a hat show when the whole of Europe is in ruins, to launch a nuclear strike like at the end of WW2, and say that everyone was saved.
    Only an omnipotent strike on decision-making centers, industrial sites and manpower bases can bring these comrades to their senses. After that, in the USA, BLM and all sorts of Marabuntas with Los Aztecas and Los Zetas will start an internal pack, so much so that the remnants of the United States themselves will ask Russia to send peacekeepers. Well, let's just drink for England without clinking glasses.
    1. Tourist Offline Tourist
      Tourist (tourist) 3 May 2022 12: 42
      -2
      another fantasy, something like "Ukraine will surrender in x hours."
      you are either a provocateur or simply not competent.
      you are mythical "decision-making centers" how do you imagine? is there a conditional white house or a pentagon or something similar in england / germany / france ..., is there the whole government, the general staff and the rockefellers-soros with friends sitting in the office at once? try to read something practical on the topic of possible targets for a preemptive strike. and you will understand that it is not so simple at all. and there are a lot of goals, but our possibilities are not unlimited
      about "industrial sites and manpower bases" similarly
      and most importantly, that this will not affect their fleet in any way, incl. underwater strategists
      1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 May 2022 13: 15
        -2
        another fantasy, something like "Ukraine will surrender in x hours."

        Whose specific fantasies are these?

        you are either a provocateur or simply not competent

        And this is not for you to judge.

        and most importantly, that this will not affect their fleet in any way, incl. underwater strategists

        Did you read the article at all? Apparently not. This is what was written there:

        But do not forget that the United Kingdom itself is a nuclear power and is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. British nuclear submarines will respond to a nuclear attack on the island with nuclear strikes of Trident-2 ICBMs on Russian megacities, and they will be joined by the Americans and other allies in the NATO bloc.

        Well, be smart, be smart...
    2. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 May 2022 13: 17
      -1
      Tov. Marzhetsky, this is all nice, but the Americans will still not suffer, which means they will begin to supply Europe with weapons with triple strength.

      We are not at war with Europe yet. Now the task is to withdraw Europe from the war for Ukraine and neutralize the military potential of Ukraine itself.

      I assumed so according to Rzeszow, but the Romanians are from the same opera.

      The Romanians owe us a lot for Moscow. So far, Poland has not directly got involved and may have time to jump off if it sees that the matter is serious.
      1. Avarron Offline Avarron
        Avarron (Sergei) 3 May 2022 15: 45
        +2
        Poland got involved directly when it became a hub for sending weapons to Ukraine.
        And Elizabeth Truss said bluntly that this was their war. The Americans directly declare their goal to weaken Russia to such an extent that it can no longer invade anywhere.
        Zelensky’s words about creating a dirty bomb were enough for Putin to start the NWO, and here are direct and explicit threats specifically against Russia.
        The West is collectively in a proxy war with Russia, with Russians directly dying, not to mention Russian LDNR.
        Having gained the possibility of a long arm, Ukraine will reach Russian cities, civilians will die, and we will all assume that we are not at war with the West?
        As long as Russia does not specifically drag Western countries in such a way that lumps fly in all directions, they will benefit from the mutual destruction of Russians in Ukraine.
        Every day of the West's confidence in its integrity costs the lives of our people.
        As long as it is more profitable for the West to fight than to negotiate, it will fight.
      2. Avarron Offline Avarron
        Avarron (Sergei) 3 May 2022 15: 47
        +3
        And yes, neutralizing the military potential of Ukraine itself, while continuing to supply weapons from the West, is not an easy task.
  3. zzdimk Offline zzdimk
    zzdimk 3 May 2022 12: 35
    +2
    One of my acquaintances says that everything will stop for 15-20 years, if during the new tests of the "Sarmatian" someone does not understand something and puts warheads, and the missiles themselves fly to the Britons and to the states. The culprit will be extradited and apologized, and his tent in some Halupinsk will be described by bailiffs in payment for damages ...
  4. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 3 May 2022 12: 39
    +2
    In the XNUMXth century, the USSR and the USA considered nuclear weapons to be a factor in global peace - a guarantee against a new world war. Together with them, everyone else thought so.
    This factor forced the countries of the world to take into account the interests of players with nuclear weapons when unleashing regional conflicts.
    In 1962, the USSR showed everyone how strategic nuclear weapons can be used, without actually using them, as a tool to appease another nuclear power. This brought the world back to a stable state for a long time, and further strengthened the authority of strategic nuclear weapons as a factor of peace on the planet.
    What has changed now?
    One of the two poles of the conflict, Russia, suddenly became afraid of its nuclear weapons "for show", repeating statements about the impossibility of using them as a mantra.
    What would happen if in 1962 the USSR behaved similarly? He wouldn't be here now. A decapitating blow from Italy and Turkey would have been delivered. There would be no past 60 years of peaceful life. There would be a nuclear war. As they say - dialectics in action.
    Strategic (I emphasize) nuclear weapons are a tool for forcing the enemy to peace even now. It just needs to be USED for it.
    Unfortunately, the statements of our diplomats carefully cross out such an opportunity for us. Based on the dialectics of life, this is a direct road to a global nuclear war.
    As for tactical nuclear weapons, they have absolutely nothing to do with it, and their use in Ukraine is savagery.
    The Hegemon himself needs to be forced to peace
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 3 May 2022 17: 39
      0
      I have been writing for a long time that the conflict between Russia and the West can be resolved by putting pressure on the Hegemon only at the beginning, thus preventing or postponing World War III.
      Every day, as new interests and players are drawn into it, this possibility decreases.
      We mediocrely prosiraem now not only our Victory, but also this whole world, which will burn at the very end as a result of our revenge on the West for our destruction
  5. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
    Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 3 May 2022 13: 41
    -2
    The author began for health and ended for peace. I just wanted to praise him for his peacefulness and on you.
    It is not clear where the author got the idea that the fifth article will not work.
    Why is a strike on Ukraine a "monstrous war crime", but a nuclear strike on Romania is not?
    If Britain threatens to respond to a nuclear strike on Ukraine, then why did the author get the idea that she would not answer for Romania.
    Romania has a missile defense system. For a massive strike, it is not a problem, but a single one may well intercept.
    If NATO does not respond to such a strike, it will mean the end of this organization. The most likely consequence of an attack on Romania would be an attack on a similar facility in Russia. Does the author suit the price?

    And yes, about the participation of Romania in the sinking of the cruiser "Moskva" and the use of the airfields of Romania by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, is this again the author's unsubstantiated fantasies?

    PS Sir Sergey, you don't have enough blood? Want to increase by orders of magnitude? Why do you hate people so much?
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 May 2022 16: 25
      0
      The author began for health and ended for peace. I just wanted to praise him for his peacefulness and on you.

      I don't need your boasting, Olezha.

      It is not clear where the author got the idea that the fifth article will not work.

      Of course you will act. Stalin is not on you. smile

      PS Sir Sergey, you don't have enough blood? Want to increase by orders of magnitude? Why do you hate people so much?

      I just want the bleeding to stop. And your idols in the West want it to flow without ceasing.
      1. Oleg Rambover Offline Oleg Rambover
        Oleg Rambover (Oleg Pitersky) 3 May 2022 21: 44
        -2
        Quote: Marzhetsky
        I don't need your boasting, Olezha.

        A kind word is also pleasant for a cat, sir Sergey.

        Quote: Marzhetsky
        Of course you will act. Stalin is not on you.

        Do you celebrate holidays?

        Quote: Marzhetsky
        I just want the bleeding to stop. And your idols in the West want it to flow without ceasing.

        No need lala. You called for war. And do you really think that nuclear strikes on a NATO country will stop the blood? That is, in order to stop the blood, you propose to shed even more of it, while risking the existence of Russia, civilization and humanity in general? It's like uh .... not logical.
        1. isofat Offline isofat
          isofat (isofat) 3 May 2022 22: 37
          -1
          Quote: Oleg Rambover
          No need lala. You called for war.

          Oleg Rambover, you should know about the US preemptive nuclear strike. This is the United States that supplies weapons to the Nazis of Ukraine and threatens Russia. Who staged, among other things, the Orange Revolution in Ukraine, etc. Mikhail Khazin is right, it is necessary to carry out the liberalization of Nazi liberals.

          Quote: Mikhail Khazin
          We must gradually move towards the denazification of Russia. Nazism and rabid liberalism are about the same thing. We need to carry out deliberalization, which is equal today to the denazification of Russia - Russian culture, Russian education, Russian healthcare, Russian politics. This is the most important task that we must solve today.

          People are worried about their country, Russia, and want to protect it. And I don't see that desire in you.
  6. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 3 May 2022 15: 36
    0
    Quote: Marzhetsky
    another fantasy, something like "Ukraine will surrender in x hours."

    Whose specific fantasies are these?

    you are either a provocateur or simply not competent

    And this is not for you to judge.

    and most importantly, that this will not affect their fleet in any way, incl. underwater strategists

    Did you read the article at all? Apparently not. This is what was written there:

    But do not forget that the United Kingdom itself is a nuclear power and is a member of the North Atlantic Alliance. British nuclear submarines will respond to a nuclear attack on the island with nuclear strikes of Trident-2 ICBMs on Russian megacities, and they will be joined by the Americans and other allies in the NATO bloc.

    Well, be smart, be smart...

    He answered me, as I understand it.
  7. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. 3 May 2022 15: 38
    +2
    Why did the Author withdraw from the blow ... the USA?
    An empty blank on the "Sarmatian" at the White House as a warning - it will clear the brains of the "gigimon" well - no nuclear weapons will be needed!
    1. Avarron Offline Avarron
      Avarron (Sergei) 3 May 2022 16: 12
      +1
      The early warning system for a missile attack will not be able to determine whether it is an empty-headed Sarmat or a nuclear-armed one, so the retaliatory strike will be full-scale. Unless the Sarmat arrives unnoticed through the South Pole, then this is a very good idea.
      1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
        Michael L. 3 May 2022 16: 26
        0
        "Coming at you"!
        "Early warning system" - red phone - is in Moscow!
    2. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 3 May 2022 16: 25
      -1
      Well, then there will definitely be a nuclear war of annihilation.
      1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
        Michael L. 3 May 2022 16: 53
        0
        Better a terrible end than horror without an end!
  8. Avarron Offline Avarron
    Avarron (Sergei) 3 May 2022 16: 14
    +3
    Quote: Alexey Davydov
    The Hegemon himself needs to be forced to peace

    This is exactly the most obvious and only correct move.
  9. Oleg_5 Offline Oleg_5
    Oleg_5 (Oleg) 3 May 2022 17: 01
    +3
    What for?!!

    It is enough to COMPLETELY cut off the supply of all hydrocarbons, titanium, uranium, fertilizers, palladium, neon to the West. Not their embargo, but ours.
    The conditions for the resumption of supplies are a complete renunciation of arms supplies, the lifting of sanctions and the establishment of a normal dialogue.
    Yes, they will sway for a while. But not for long.
    Perhaps, and what they managed to deliver, they will urgently take it back.
  10. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 3 May 2022 20: 01
    0
    Yeah. In Ukraine, nuclear weapons are not allowed, but in NATO member Romania, they are.
    it's all a game for the benefit of the enemy.

    And the provocateurs-propagandists should have been imprisoned long ago, but for no reason, they are their own for the authorities ...
  11. akm8226 Offline akm8226
    akm8226 3 May 2022 21: 09
    +1
    a direct route to The Hague ... this is wild nonsense! For the winners are not judged! When one Sarmat drowns the small Britons, and the second all the United States - all the courts will shut up instantly! I bet anything that not a single word will be uttered from there - no squeak will be heard! For the US comrades themselves deserved not one, but a dozen Hagues, if not twenty!
  12. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 3 May 2022 21: 36
    +2
    The unilateral adoption on December 5, 1991 by the Supreme Council of Ukraine of the appeal “To the Parliaments and Peoples of the World”, which declared that “Ukraine considers the 1922 Treaty on the Establishment of the USSR to be null and void” is void, since the withdrawal of the republic was possible only with a positive decision at the USSR Referendum and the implementation of the USSR Law of April 3, 1990 No. 1410-I "On the procedure for resolving issues related to the withdrawal of a union republic from the USSR."
    It is necessary to legislate that the territory of Ukraine is the property of Russia, torn away as a result of a coup d'état in 1991 with the help of NATO. The military operation in Ukraine is the liberation of the territory of Russia occupied by separatists, the restoration of the territorial integrity of Russia.
    For example, in 2005, China passed the "Law on Anti-Secession of the State." According to the document, in the event of a threat to the peaceful reunification of the mainland and Taiwan, the PRC government is obliged to resort to force and other necessary methods to preserve its territorial integrity.
    The absence of a law stating that the territory of Ukraine is the property of Russia allows the enemies to interpret the military operation carried out by Russia as aggression and occupation by Russia.
    1. Sacha1960 Offline Sacha1960
      Sacha1960 (Sasha Anton) 4 May 2022 18: 36
      +1
      His arguments are very relevant and reasonable both from a historical and legal point of view.
  13. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
    Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 3 May 2022 23: 18
    +2
    Why is it impossible to use a nuclear strike? For example, for a military or railway facility in Western Ukraine. Ukraine's neighbors will consider whether to drag out the war. Yes, and it would not hurt to walk along Bankova in Kyiv with a small bomb. If the special operation drags on, and with it the loss of people and military equipment, then nuclear weapons will be a great help. And the international court? Does the US follow its laws?
  14. Sacha1960 Offline Sacha1960
    Sacha1960 (Sasha Anton) 4 May 2022 18: 20
    +1
    Completely absurd and manipulative article appears to be written by a lunatic or provocateur: It mixes tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine with strategic weapons against NATO, (Armageddon), proceeds from the assumption that attacking military infrastructure is a war crime and is equivalent to the massacre of civilians, he talks about attacking the UK with a Sarmat missile, he says that it is a crime and madness to attack Ukraine, (which is not a member of NATO), but perhaps it is possible to attack Romania, (that is, NATO). And he also accepts with all normalcy that The Hague (NATO court) can judge Russia!
  15. The comment was deleted.
  16. Sapsan136 Offline Sapsan136
    Sapsan136 (Alexander) 4 May 2022 21: 38
    +1
    Everything depends on the circumstances. If NATO troops enter Ukraine, if NATO nuclear weapons appear there, even tactical ones, then the use of nuclear weapons, especially in the western regions bordering Poland, will be fully justified ... When Putin said that we do not need a world in which there is no Russian Federation, he said right!
  17. Avedi Offline Avedi
    Avedi (Ankh) 12 May 2022 08: 53
    0
    It is necessary to sew nudes, otherwise the world will not be seen, these will continue their hellish policy forever