Bloomberg: Berlin and Moscow use "gas weapons" together


Renunciation of Russian gas only makes sense as a colorful political slogan, but in reality it is immeasurable economic damage to modern Germany. There is no point in hiding: the crisis and the decline in production in Germany will be severe. Remembering the experience of the man-made gas crisis of 2018 and analyzing the experience of those who participated in it, one can only conclude that it will not be easy for Chancellor Olaf Scholz to cope and make the right choice. This opinion was made by economic observer Bloomberg Javier Blas.


The head of Russia, Vladimir Putin, does not back down and continues to play victoriously in the energy market, exploiting the weaknesses of the long-term “short-sighted European policy". Right now, Germany has only bad options - bad or, optionally, even worse.

However, according to the expert, both Berlin and Moscow are wielding "gas weapons" together, only at different historical "speeds". Germany intends to ban Russian gas imports soon, perhaps in three years, while finding alternative sources of supply in terms of volume and building infrastructure for LNG imports from the US and the Middle East. All this will give it the opportunity to become a distribution hub for the EU, that is, a second Russia (now Berlin sells fuel to Poland, which has many contracts with the United States). In the meantime, only the Kremlin is holding this “weapon” in its hands.

Either way, Berlin will now either have to suffer from gas shortages or make painful concessions to Putin in his gas ultimatum. It is fraught. Blas gives a simple example: in his opinion, if the federal government now gives in on the issue of payment in rubles, then tomorrow, using the instrument of pressure in the form of supplies of raw materials, Moscow will allegedly demand an end to aid to Ukraine. Etc.

The point now is not even a decision, although it is not difficult to guess what it will be. At the moment, it is not just a short-term problem, but a question of ideology. If Germany is able to find a replacement for gas from Russia in the near future, then the price will in any case be much higher than it could be with continued friendship with the Russian Federation. In turn, this means that there will be no more cheap Russian gas, which really fueled the German economy for many years. Famous German companies that consume a lot of gas, such as chemical mega-factories, will no longer be able to compete in the global market. Germany is thus facing a painful future choice for its industrial economy.

But with all the denial of Putin's methods, Berlin wants to play the role of the current Moscow as effectively, only in the future. In Germany, the trends and dependencies on fuel abundance in the medium term are well understood.

Summing up, Blas advises Scholz to decide not to pay in rubles and to "courageously" go for obvious catastrophic consequences for the whole country. According to the expert, "the time is up" for games with Moscow.

However, it is easy to give such advice while sitting in Washington.

Blas concluded.
  • Photos used: twitter.com/Bundeskanzler
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  1. GIS Offline GIS
    GIS (Ildus) 2 May 2022 10: 14
    0
    "close the valve" - ​​lower the FRG and the EU into the "Stone Age".
    propose a joint restoration of the European countries. BUT the risk of "leaving Europe" in the clutches of the United States is great.
    1. Pivander Offline Pivander
      Pivander (Alex) 2 May 2022 10: 21
      0
      "close the valve" - ​​lower the FRG and the EU into the "Stone Age" - this is approximately what the United States is striving for.
      1. GIS Offline GIS
        GIS (Ildus) 4 May 2022 16: 05
        0
        yes, they do it. but Europe then goes for it (though "stretching the pleasure" in time to abandon coal, oil, gas). well, since "such a booze has gone" - let them begin to see clearly and "taste" their "decarbonization". Look, it will be time to change your mind...
  2. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Boris) 2 May 2022 11: 14
    0
    This "economic observer" from Bloomberg has hefty American ears sticking out)
  3. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 2 May 2022 12: 07
    +1
    as elsewhere in Europe, German industrialists are not interested in losing Russia as a source of affordable raw materials. On the other hand, there are hopes to make money on decarbonization, because it is clear that the government will be forced to save the industry with budgetary funds. Everyone diligently counts and recalculates possible profits or losses.

    Everything would be nothing if not for the time. Events are ahead of any plans. Refusal of gas in 2025 - 27? A smooth transition from a sucker to budget billions? How about tomorrow, total rejection? Hence the media frenzy. They are torn into "refuse and punish Russia" and "we are finished." That is, they themselves pump it up and they themselves immediately explain what will come of it.

    The risks for the German government are seriously increasing, because the basis of all shocks is a lie. Public opinion today is set against Russia under the influence of fakes, media hysteria and lies. But there is already a significant part of society that understands the root causes and sees the lie.

    Germany is on very thin ice. At the same time, no one knows what are the prospects in the fight against inflation in the US and the eurozone. Russia is raising the stakes, hinting at turning the faucet on everything. And now Scholz will have to make a choice - pay in rubles or refuse gas right now.

    The consequences of choosing to raise rates will only be tolerated by the people if that patience is justified. A clear understanding that Russia is pure evil. Hopes or even confidence that the media and social networks will be able to support this understanding, permanently form a false framework are very arbitrary. There will be people and forces speaking the truth. Looking for answers. The birth of a part of the "dissenting" society is inevitable. How inevitable is the growth of this part.
  4. Tixiy Offline Tixiy
    Tixiy (Tixiy) 2 May 2022 12: 15
    0
    I agree with everything, except that Europe has its own policy.
  5. GIS Offline GIS
    GIS (Ildus) 4 May 2022 16: 09
    0
    Quote: Siegfried
    Russia is raising the stakes, hinting at turning the faucet on everything. And now Scholz will have to make a choice - pay in rubles or refuse gas right now.

    The consequences of choosing to raise rates will only be tolerated by the people if that patience is justified. A clear understanding that Russia is pure evil. Hopes or even confidence that the media and social networks will be able to support this understanding, permanently form a false framework are very arbitrary. There will be people and forces speaking the truth. Looking for answers. The birth of a part of the "dissenting" society is inevitable. How inevitable is the growth of this part.

    well said!
    let's add here that a turn in their minds will be helped by "refugees from Ukraine", which I think will undoubtedly accelerate the "sobering up" of society
    Well, we just have to wait for the denouement of this plot and believe in our Armed Forces and the Commander-in-Chief