Geopolitics is a complicated thing, there are circumstances that no one will tell or explain to you, just because the whole policy goes under the carpet and there are things that cannot be articulated. It is not necessary for any housewife to know about them, but anyone who is supposed to know about them knows that. But nobody forbade me to tell you about this. So, I will say. And you listen, maybe this will help you explain to yourself the previously unexplained things and steps of our Foreign Ministry, not to mention the actions of our President, which even for knowledgeable circles are sometimes conceptually and categorically unexpected.
The world now lives as if on a powder keg, tiredly wandering from one extreme to another. Only, it seemed, they had resolved the impending conflict in Idlib by concluding a separate agreement with the Sultan, and avoiding unnecessary confrontation with the world hegemon, when in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean Sea it was already crowded from our and American-Allied ships, and the need for a staged chemist. the attack of the “white helmets” disappeared as unnecessary, as an emergency situation arose with our IL-20, in which the Russian Defense Ministry accused Israel. Apparently, we’ll have to start from this point, because now it’s the main irritant, and then I’ll dispel all the other myths that have settled in your head.
Myth number 1. Jews are to blame
Oh, and it’s not easy, I already feel that I will have to break this myth when such anti-Israeli sentiments have now played out. Colonel Viktor Baranets, a military columnist for the Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, alone with his “smart little Jews” who framed our IL-20, what is it worth?
But he did not stop there and agreed to what he called "Israel - a tight-loving lap of the USA, which barks at all, sitting under the smelly mouse of its master." High calm, isn't it ?! Well done! Who am I against him? Pygmy? But I still try to object.
I will not retell the chronology of events, I think everything is up to date. The Syrians overwhelmed our reconnaissance aircraft, the RF Ministry of Defense, in the person of their speaker Major General Konashenkov, from their S-200 air defense system, and Israel blamed it. Israel did not plead guilty ... Putin thought for a week. Exactly so much has been given to the Israeli side to justify itself and resolve the impending conflict. Apparently, the arguments of the commander of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Amikam Norkin, urgently seconded to Moscow, were not accepted. The Israeli side took an impenetrable position: “We are not to blame! “The Syrians are to blame for everything, which burned into the white light, like a penny, and deal with them!” So Putin figured it out! Today, after an emergency briefing by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, where the last flight of our Il-20 and the four Israeli Phantoms was constantly examined, the indictment was approved, after which he issued a statement to Shoigu and said that the “shop”, and with it the sky over Syria, it is closed for all uninvited guests - the Russian Federation will deliver the S-2 air defense system to the SAR in a 300-week period.
After which the world began to move. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urgently contacted Moscow by telephone, but his conversation with Putin did not succeed; the Kremlin did not change its decision. The head of the US Department of State, Mike Pompeo, on the other side of the ocean, immediately expressed his desire to meet with his counterpart Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov at the next session of the UN General Assembly. “I’m sure that we will have time,” said Pompeo. Of course, there will be time, Mr. Secretary of State, but the result will be the same, the Russian Federation will not change its decision, since it does not intend to risk the lives of its military personnel anymore. It is worth noting that, having decided to supply one single S-300 complex, Moscow significantly strengthened its negotiating position, since a good word and colt in this world cost much more than just a good word (which the United States constantly uses). What will happen when there are several S-300 batteries in Syria, I do not know. But the adviser to the President of the United States on national security John Bolton knows about this. In an interview with Reuters, he said that Russia's plans to deliver the S-300 complex to Syria would mean “significant escalation” of the situation on the part of Moscow. And in the evening, giving an interview to the Associated Press, he called Moscow’s intention to supply S-300 systems in general “the Kremlin’s main mistake”, but expressed the hope that Russia would reconsider its decision on this issue. Do not even hope, Mr. Counselor, Russia harnesses for a long time, but travels quickly, although we agree to talk on this subject.
Putin has once again reaffirmed the worst fears of his foes. Stating about our response that “these will be steps that everyone will notice ...”, he did not deceive. Really noticed everything! Colonel Baranets has a reason for overturning 100 or more grams on this occasion. And so, what holiday will now begin on the street of anti-Semites around the world, I can not even imagine. We assume that I have nothing to object to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation and its data of objective control, I have no reason not to trust him, and the IDF did not say anything intelligible in its defense. Therefore, I could not cope with the task of bleaching the Jews in this part of my speech; I will try to do this in the following parts.
Myth number 2. On the invincible Syrian air defense and their threat to the Israeli F-16
We will analyze now technical part of the case. Why did this happen? The Syrian air defense system, equipped with the old Soviet systems S-125, S-200, Buk-M1, Strela-10, Kvadrat, Osa, is of an objective rather than a zonal nature, and is objectively unable to close all the sky over Syria. Therefore, it covers only strategically important objects and it is impossible to demand the impossible from it. The Israelis have long understood this, so they felt completely calm in the skies over Syria, their main task was to warn the Russians not to use their air defense systems covering military facilities in the SAR - the Khmeimim airfield and the naval support point in Tartus, and they knew how to bypass the ancient Soviet-made air defense systems with their latest F-16s. In this case, the Israelis, as a rule, did not enter the Syrian airspace, not wanting to meet with the Buk-M1 and Pantsir-C1 medium-range and short-range systems, preferring to act from afar, which, in the presence of planning bombs, did not interfere with the tasks assigned. Therefore, there was no need for the Israelis to hide specially for other people's planes, especially Russians, they already felt like kings of air in the Syrian sky. Why in the latter case everything went wrong, I do not know. But I know why the Syrian missile, not detecting the Israeli F-16, intercepted another target, and as luck would have it, it turned out to be our Il-20 landing at that moment.
Export systems don’t equip their friend or foe identification systems, so the IL-20 was clearly perceived as a “foreign” for them. If he had not been there, then the rocket, not finding the target, would have self-destructed, moreover, it was impossible to do this from the ground. A feature of the S-200 5B28 SAM missiles is that in the absence of a reflected signal from the target in the receiving path of the homing head (GOS), they are undermined (self-destruct). If the GOS after all possible search methods does not find the target and does not intercept it, then the “maximally up” command is automatically issued to the rudder of the rocket and the product “with a candle” goes into the upper atmosphere, where the warhead is undermined. There are no more tricks and methods of self-destruction for the S-200. Since the tip was correct for the enemy, the missile, not finding the enemy who made the maneuver, already in flight itself intercepted the target, choosing a larger one with a larger reflecting surface. The fault of the Israeli pilot is that he intentionally or unintentionally set up our board, in the radio shadow of which he was when he made the maneuver of avoiding the missile launched into him. This is an objective reality. The Israelis did not have counterarguments against her. As a result, we lost 15 of our guys!
And what kind of shooter has risen in the West, when the fact of launching a rocket from our S-400 on that day was established by their means of objective control, you cannot imagine. "Russia first used the S-400 in Syria" - with such headlines all American newspapers appeared on September 18. And indeed it is. We tried to do at least something to prevent the destruction of our IL-20. Already after the Syrian missile, we sent our own to eliminate it, but, alas, there was not enough time. It was a step of despair - automation issued a threat, and there was no longer any effective means. So you understand, if our S-400 worked on the F-16, then you would send not one missile, but two (usually similar systems send 2 missiles to guarantee the destruction of the target, there was one immediately). You can put an end to this - I hope we figured out this part.
Myth number 3. About bad Jews and good Arabs and Persians
Now let's dispel the myth of the bad Jews fighting the whole Arab world and the good Arabs suffering from them. Well, for starters, let's say that Israel is not fighting the whole Arab world, but only those who threaten its national security. And now there is nothing left for those who want to deal with it - Iran, which, in general, does not perceive the statehood of Israel, as such, and declared it enemy No. 1, and a couple of terrorist organizations fighting against it through terrorist acts. And if Israel still copes with terrorists at the very least, Iran is a real existential threat to it. That is why he strained when the units of the SIR (Guardians of the Islamic Revolution), together with the pro-Iranian Hezbollah, entered the territory of Syria, with which it shares a common border. Since now nothing was separating him from this threat, and from the territory of the SAR, Hezbollah immediately began the transfer of weapons for his colleagues in Lebanon, and it was precisely at these objects (warehouses and production shops) that he carried out targeted bombing (and for the last time too).
And for those who, on occasion, love to remember, and what, in general, these Jews have the right to intervene in the affairs of a sovereign state, and not whether they have become impudent at all, I answer - there is still no peace agreement between the SAR and the state of Israel, they have been in a state of war since 1967 when, as a result of the Six Day War, Israel defeated the Golan Heights from the SAR. The war continues. It is strange to ask your enemy, with whom you are at war, for permission to bomb his territory.
For Israel, the ability to launch air strikes on Syrian territory is a matter of principle, to some extent even a matter of survival. Since Moscow and Damascus cannot or do not want to oust SIR and Hezbollah from Syria, Tel Aviv cannot react to their actions near the Israeli border. Israel proceeds from threats to its own security. It can be understood. Understand and forgive! The Kremlin would have done so (and would do so if cruise missiles are in Poland or Romania - the Iskanders in Kaliningrad are already waiting in the wings!) And Washington (if our missiles suddenly appeared in Mexico or Cuba). Therefore, with the position of Israel in this matter, everything is clear. Therefore, he will do a lot to prevent Iran from gaining a foothold in Syria. And we can help him in this, and why not? (this is in our interests, but more on that below in myth 4).
Myth number 4. About our interests in the Middle East
Immediately resolve the backfill question - who are our allies in the Middle East? Iran? Turkey? Maybe at least Syria, for which we are now fighting? Nah! Do not guess! All past the box office! We are fighting there for ourselves, for our interests. Both Iran and Turkey, just now our fellow travelers are in this, interests stupidly coincided, and even that is not all. Assad is also a forced ally, he simply has no other choice, although he is a decent person, no doubt, unlike the Sultan, from whom at any moment you can expect a knife in the back. But even he at least apologized to us for the downed IL-20? Have you heard the apology? I'm not talking about condolences, but about an apology that is not the same thing. But it was his rocket men who distinguished themselves. The answer is simple - he is not responsible for the hostilities on his territory, especially the air defense. This is our cant! We are responsible for it, although the arrows are transferred to Israel. But people understand little more or less initiated on this issue - Jews have nothing to do with it. Where did our local curators look? And they must be asked. And they are already asking! Believe me, all those responsible for the tragedy will respond with epaulets. But you won’t get the guys back.
But I digress from the topic of our interests in the BV. Let's remember what kind of disposition there was before the entry of the Russian Federation into the Syrian campaign. I remind you for those who forgot - at that time, as of September 2015, the anti-Ghilean coalition from 40 countries led by the United States there was unsuccessfully fighting ISIS (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), but in fact, under the guise of fighting ISIS, it successfully fought with Assad’s regime. So successful that before his death there were only a few months and all the parties involved in this, from the Turks and Saudis to the Americans and Kurds, already carnivorously clicked their teeth in anticipation of an early prey.
Joining the Russian campaign on Assad’s side dramatically changed the situation on the chessboard - one blitz operation was enough for Putin to demolish all the players who set the chess table there and claim that Russia was regaining its lost influence zones. At the same time, it was obvious that the Russian Federation was not going to stop there, but would continue to expand them into zones that were not previously. What is happening now. The balance of power in the Middle East is changing, slowly but surely there is a replacement of American influence by Russian.
But how can this factor be made long-term? And here Putin and Lavrov make a somewhat unexpected, but extremely important and wise decision. Which is not so obvious to be seen from the colonel's trench (I'm talking about our Colonel Baranets from the 1st part), but what about the colonel, here and not every general will understand the Kremlin's long-range goal (I am silent about housewives, in general!) ... Although the goal is clear - dominance in BV, but how to achieve it? And it can be achieved only by playing on the contradictions of the parties, while maintaining neutrality. What Putin is now brilliantly demonstrating.
Tell me, comrade Colonel, what is the use of Russia that Iran will have the S-300? (We didn’t even deliver it to them in due time, we even paid a penalty!). But no! But the possibility of their supply can still tug Israel for a long mustache and knock out the behavior you need. But comrade the colonel strictly demands - to deliver Iran and Syria the S-300, your mother! Well, we will deliver, and then what? The end to the dominance of the Russian Federation in BV? One side can beat the other, so what? Why do we need this? The position of the Russian Federation is strong only in the middle! In the middle between the two warring parties. As an arbitrator, whose opinion everyone values. We are not interested in the victory of one of the parties. Unlike the States. Therefore, the Russian Federation silently looks at rocket attacks by Israel on the ATS. Each such bombardment is authorized by the Kremlin. Not a single rocket takes off without a report to the General Staff of the Russian Federation. And why do we need to strengthen Iran in the BV? No, a better balance of power.
But with the supply of S-300 Syria, the balance of power is changing. Putin sharply raised rates for Tel Aviv. The security and existence of Israel in the future from now on is now completely dependent on Russia, not on the United States. That with the emerging in recent years, especially with Obama’s cadence, the tendency for the interests of the former partners to diverge due to their different goal-setting, it is pushing Tel Aviv to more likely cling to our shore, while remaining the bridge connecting us with its former marina. Through Tel Aviv, you can communicate with Trump, without raising suspicion from Congress (but more on that in the next part). And at the end of this article I’ll only say that if the Su-24 that it shot down was forgiven for the sultan, attributing it to the excess of the performer, then the Il-20 that was shot down by non-Israelis will forgive Israel for sure. This is a real politician! Alas and ah!