Why Kazakhstan is turning into "Ukraine-2"

Why Kazakhstan is turning into "Ukraine-2"

The main topic of 2022 is undoubtedly the special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, which the Kremlin decided on February 24, 2022. Against the backdrop of these dramatic events, it was somehow forgotten that the New Year began either with an “invasion of tens of thousands of militants,” or with an attempt at Maidan in still friendly Kazakhstan, to the rescue of which Russia and other CSTO allies promptly came to the rescue. Meanwhile, in this country there are active political processes that can eventually turn it into "Ukraine-2".

Recall that the formal reason for the riots in Kazakhstan at the very beginning of 2022 was a sharp increase in prices for motor fuel. Dissatisfied with the inevitable further deterioration of their socio-economic situation, people took to the streets. At first, their demands were quite reasonable and fair, but then the so-called “mambets” arrived in the big cities, residents of depressed rural areas, who for a number of reasons did not shine with a high level of education and culture and therefore did not have good life prospects. What happened next was what was supposed to happen when a burning match falls into a barrel of gunpowder.

It exploded, so much so that the official Nur-Sultan was forced to seek help through the CSTO. And I received it, for the first time in the entire history of the existence of this organization. Russia, along with other allied countries, sent peacekeepers to Kazakhstan. Despite the fact that Russian soldiers did not directly participate in the suppression of the riot, their operational deployment was of major political importance, since Moscow directly demonstrated that Nur-Sultan would not leave. The regime of President Tokayev resisted, while an obvious coup took place at the top, when proteges of ex-President Nazarbayev were removed from all levers of control. The peacekeepers, having completed their task, left. And it was a huge mistake.

January 7, 2022 on the "Reporter" came out publication under the telling heading "Why it will be a mistake not to bring in, but to withdraw Russian troops from Kazakhstan." In it, the author of these lines tried to simulate what might happen after the departure of the peacekeepers, and, unfortunately, was not mistaken. To the place I will quote a fragment of that January article, in which the withdrawal of Russian troops is assessed as a big strategic mistake:

Now Moscow has the right to demand from Nur-Sultan not only a military base at Baikonur, but also a number of important political reforms. To protect the rights of millions of our compatriots in Northern Kazakhstan, the Russian language should receive the status of the second state language, and the translation of writing from Cyrillic to Latin should be cancelled. The policy of so-called “soft Russophobia” must stop. American and Turkish NGOs - all out. Otherwise, a relapse of the Maidan is inevitable after some time, and then Kazakhstan may lose its northern territories, and Russia will receive a second "Ukraine" on the southern border. To avoid this, Russia should stay in Kazakhstan and deepen the process of its reintegration. Regardless of someone's Wishlist, disagreement and indignation.

What gives us reason to believe that Kazakhstan is following the path of "Ukrainization"? Alas, a lot.

Under President Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan pursued a very ambivalent policy, actively trying to maneuver between Russia, China, Turkey and the collective West. On the one hand, Nursultan Abishevich stood at the origins of the integration project of the Eurasian Economic Union in the post-Soviet space. On the other hand, it was under him that the policy of consistent de-Russification and rapprochement with the collective West began. The capital of the country was deliberately moved to the Russian-speaking north in order to maximize its Kazakhization. Under Nazarbayev's successor, Tokayev, the Central Asian republic's rapprochement with Russia's geopolitical adversaries has only accelerated.

In 2018, Kazakhstan signed an agreement on military-technical cooperation with Turkey, which should regulate the sphere of the military-industrial complex, military training and the conduct of certain peacekeeping missions. Projects for the supply of energy carriers in the European direction, bypassing the territory of Russia, are being considered and worked out. Kazakhstan also actively and deeply cooperates with the Anglo-Saxon world. In July 2021, he participated in the Steppe Eagle military exercise with US, British and Canadian troops. Their stated goal was to work out "the organization of the management of units and the interaction of international contingents." In fact, the Kazakh Armed Forces were paired with the NATO ones according to the standards of the North Atlantic Alliance. In the United States, the goal of such joint maneuvers is called without equivocation: "to train together to fight together" (Train together to fight together). I wonder against whom?

That Kazakhstan does not want to be in the same boat with Russia, he has now made it very clear. Timur Suleimenov, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration of Kazakhstan, stated this directly:

Of course, Russia wanted us to be more on their side, but Kazakhstan respects the territorial integrity of Ukraine. We have not recognized and do not recognize either the situation with Crimea or the situation with Donbass, because the UN does not recognize them. We will only respect decisions taken at the level of the United Nations.

After the official Nur-Sultan publicly renounced Moscow, London good-naturedly patted its Kazakh partners on the shoulder, confirming that it would not impose sanctions against them, as against Russia. Moreover, the UK and Kazakhstan now intend to sign some kind of agreement on strategic cooperation, as stated by the Ambassador of Kazakhstan in London Yerlan Idrisov:

We will continue our partnership. We are expecting the visit of the Foreign Minister of Kazakhstan to the UK soon. We hope to sign a new bilateral trade agreement, the so-called strategic partnership agreement.

Meanwhile, the Kazakh-British agreement on military-technical cooperation was already signed on April 27, 2022, as reported by the press service of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan:

During the talks, issues of bilateral cooperation in the field of military education, combat training, training of specialists in the field of cybersecurity were discussed. Following the meeting, a cooperation plan was signed between the defense departments of Kazakhstan and the UK for 2022-2023.

In general, in economic and military-technical terms, Kazakhstan now finally falls under the Turks and Anglo-Saxons. At the same time, an “atomic bomb” is being laid for the political stability of this Central Asian republic.

Thus, President Tokayev announced a plan to introduce serious changes to the Constitution of the Republic of Kazakhstan, which should affect a third of its articles. As a result of the transformation, a kind of “Second Republic” should appear, which will clearly belong to parliamentary ones. In other words, the president's powers will be significantly weakened in favor of a "strong parliament."
For a country that has not yet outlived the tribal system with its division into Zhuzes, this means a transition to permanent political instability, where puppet parties financed by oligarchs from different Zhuzes, tribes and clans clash among themselves in the highest representative body. Inevitably, in the political struggle for power, the nationalist card will be played, which guarantees big problems for Russian-speaking Northern Kazakhstan.

Right now, all the prerequisites are being laid for the rapid transformation of the still relatively friendly Kazakhstan into "Ukraine-2". In a few years, Russia will have a huge new problem in its southern underbelly if it does nothing to prevent it. How many troubles could have been avoided if Moscow had left its peacekeepers there on a permanent basis and demanded political changes at the right time and place!
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  1. yuriy55 Offline yuriy55
    yuriy55 (Yuri) April 30 2022 11: 12
    Don't click through uranium deposits. It will be necessary - we will extinguish according to the Ukrainian method ...
  2. ZmikeV Offline ZmikeV
    ZmikeV (Michael) April 30 2022 11: 32
    The situation in Kazakhstan is determined by the success of the NWO in Ukraine
  3. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
    Michael L. April 30 2022 12: 16
    The author believes that the Russian Federation should have left its military contingent in Kazakhstan against the will of its leadership, and, accordingly, rule the country - a de facto colony - in its own interests?
    1. whitebeard Offline whitebeard
      whitebeard April 30 2022 23: 43
      No, why? Just put a condition - do you want us to help you by bringing in peacekeepers and "put you in the kingdom"? - please, but here are our, certain, conditions;)
      1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
        Michael L. 1 May 2022 14: 06
        The CSTO membership agreement does not provide for setting conditions in crisis situations!
  4. Yuriy88 Offline Yuriy88
    Yuriy88 (Yuri) April 30 2022 12: 20
    the Russians have and had time to escape from there! What a desire to be "forcibly loved" .. Since the 90s, everything was clear! Let the Kazakhs flounder as they want and call whoever they want ..! This is still not Ukraine. No close culture or language, mentality!. ! A specific ethnic group is Asian.. What do we want? Baikonur, if possible, you need to somehow squeeze it out, buy it out, capture it .. if everything doesn’t work out! We have already tried to fight with the whole world .. and not really .. Why look for problems ..?! Leave, the border to the castle. All!
    1. Victorio Offline Victorio
      Victorio (Victorio) April 30 2022 14: 18
      Quote: Yuri88
      the Russians have and had time to escape from there!

      and if they were born, grew up, the graves of their ancestors? run too!
    2. beer puff Offline beer puff
      beer puff (Igor Trabkin) April 30 2022 16: 31
      Get away, the border to the castle

      Tell us in more detail how you are going to lock up 7598 km of the border?
    3. Vladimir Orlov Offline Vladimir Orlov
      Vladimir Orlov (Vladimir) 3 May 2022 01: 27
      And the Kazakhs will flee from Russia.? They are all well fed here.

      Perhaps, on the contrary, the measures of Comrade. Stalin on the eviction of "unreliable nationalities" were far-sighted and wise ...

      They would arrange their own 'Maidan' there in the interests of the Russian Federation, but our temporary workers are incapable of this.
    4. obar64 Offline obar64
      obar64 (Oleg Barchev) 4 May 2022 11: 40
      the length of the borders between Russia and Kazakhstan and, in the strategic plan, NATO countries get access to the Caspian Sea. And the last thing: look at the map with which countries Kazakhstan borders and what can happen to the countries of the former USSR in the East if Kazakhstan becomes Ukraine No. 2.
    5. obar64 Offline obar64
      obar64 (Oleg Barchev) 4 May 2022 12: 03
      How easy it is for you - ".... it was time to escape." And why should people flee, in Kazakhstan they have a home, work, family, friends, graves of loved ones. On the contrary, it is necessary to stop with the "policy of an ostrich" hiding its head in the sand, hiding behind phrases about independent, independent states. Today it is already clear to most people that the independence of Kazakhstan and similar states of the former USSR only on paper, in reality, whose financial and political interests are more widely represented, determines the political preferences of the elite of this country. In Kazakhstan, the main investments in the oil and gas sector are the campaigns of the USA, Britain, Holland. They own approximately 74% of Kazakhstan's oil production market. https://www.yaplakal.com/forum7/topic2259469.html?
  5. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
    Marzhecki (Sergei) April 30 2022 12: 26
    Quote from Mikhail L.
    The author believes that the Russian Federation should have left its military contingent in Kazakhstan against the will of its leadership, and, accordingly, rule the country - a de facto colony - in its own interests?

    If national security requires it, then why not? The troops went there at the invitation of the authorities, it was necessary to find a reason to stay.
    smile Kyiv is also against the presence of Russian troops, if anything.
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. April 30 2022 12: 39
      The national security of the Russian Federation requires a conflict with the Government of Kazakhstan ... according to the Ukrainian model?
      1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
        Marzhecki (Sergei) April 30 2022 16: 26
        The Ukrainian scenario in Kazakhstan is being prepared for us by the Anglo-Saxons. I only propose to avoid it by imposing my own game. As suggested in 2014 in Ukraine.
        You liberals always put everything upside down.
        1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
          Michael L. April 30 2022 18: 18
          So I, having an alternative opinion, am on the side of ... the Anglo-Saxons?
          Personal attacks with dubious generalizations - low flying! ;-(
          1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
            Marzhecki (Sergei) 1 May 2022 07: 52
            It turns out that way.
            1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
              Michael L. 1 May 2022 14: 10
              I have a sad experience of "discussions" with Ukrainian "Nazis".
              When the arguments are exhausted, they declare "separ" or "pro-Russian", and threaten to kill.
              You, alas, operate in the same paradigm!

              Personal attacks with dubious generalizations - low flying!
              I do not mind: "It turns out that it is so!". ;-(
  6. cooper Offline cooper
    cooper (Alexander) April 30 2022 13: 13
    Yes, in a drum we have a certain Kazakhstan, not to trifles.
    1. Avarron Offline Avarron
      Avarron (Sergei) April 30 2022 18: 03
      Well, if Kazakhstan is a trifle, then I hesitate to ask, what then is not a trifle, are you a large-scale person?
  7. The comment was deleted.
  8. Sergey Pavlenko Offline Sergey Pavlenko
    Sergey Pavlenko (Sergey Pavlenko) April 30 2022 13: 54
    Let them get on their camels and ride on their steppes. In no case should we allow any flights through Russia to the west, any pipelines through our territory and other restrictions, so that they would howl and continue to drink their koumiss and enjoy their steppe life ...
    1. The comment was deleted.
  9. Professor Offline Professor
    Professor (Paul) April 30 2022 14: 42
    It is a matter of honor for the Russian special services to prevent an "explosion" of Kazakhstan according to the Ukrainian scenario.
    But if Kazakhstan "explodes" - to kill unequivocally, without negotiations: there is nothing to talk about with the savages who received statehood, writing and the rudiments of culture from the hands of Russia less than a century ago.
    We will not be in Kazakhstan - it will turn into a second Afghanistan, moreover, flooded with the Americans and their NATO lackeys.
    And the huge areas and small population of this "khanate" imply the use of ANY types of weapons: Kazakhstan is "not Europe"!
  10. Valentine Offline Valentine
    Valentine (Valentin) April 30 2022 15: 00
    The East is a muddy, slippery, and even vile business - you help him, and he stabs you in the back. America is doing the right thing, that it has neither "brothers" nor "sisters", but only "sixes", and after all, literally everyone sees this perfectly, but they cannot do anything, even the leading European countries - Berlin, Paris, and even about There is nothing to say about the Central Asians, there will soon be their own blazing Maidan, the man-made brainchild of Washington and London, and everything is being pumped along the perimeter of our borders, and our "guarantors" keep quiet, or threaten with a finger, but in Ukraine in 2004, during the "orange revolution "They didn't even do that, but let all the affairs there take their course, and now we have what we have - an evil enemy on our border. Well done Americans in the collapse of states, slowly, exactly, with the arrangement, as with the USSR, let they spent about 45 years on this, but they did their job, and now they have taken up Russia, spudding all of Central Asia, Turkey, they will soon come to an agreement with China for a fat piece of our land with all its underground storerooms, and mother Japan is ready even now fight with us, apparently they forgot about Hiroshima, but we can repeat yell .... When our leaders will have iron "Faberge", otherwise they are already tired of these squeals and apologies for what we did not do, and with such a nuclear arsenal we should have long been banging our fist on the Washington table with a warning, and from the high podium of the UN to directly state that do not interfere in our collective farm, American boys, or it will all end very badly.
  11. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
    Alexey Davydov (Alexey) April 30 2022 15: 27
    I do not think that the actions of the leadership in Ukraine, which have already received the definition of a "strange war," or our hasty withdrawal from Kazakhstan, are simply mistakes of the authorities.
    There is a certain systemic factor that negatively affects the decision-making by the authorities.
    I will not list the options - I will have the same ones as everyone else.
    One of the options is in this answer to my comment:

    .... No one! Professionals who are inconvenient because they demand truth, action, work, are removed and purged for the sake of the notorious vertical of power, which requires sycophants, loyal and faithful, and most importantly, that they should not be smarter than their boss. Now this whole vertical is now sitting exactly on the priest, waiting for instructions from a superior, and he himself cleared out all the smart people around him and cannot make the necessary decisions ........ People in power in Russia are not able to act in emergency crisis conditions. It’s one thing to put forward slogans, but it’s another thing to know what can be done and how, and the main thing is to choose the right resources in order to fulfill the necessary ...

    If so, we urgently need to create mechanisms that increase the effectiveness of management. The enemy won't wait
    1. Rusa Offline Rusa
      Rusa 1 May 2022 21: 01
      Professionals ... removed and cleaned

      And who do you classify as professionals who are "cleaned up and cleaned up"?
      By what criteria do you judge?
      1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
        Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 2 May 2022 16: 11
        This is a response to my comment. I can assume that the person who wrote the answer encountered this phenomenon in his workplace. About ten years ago, young people who had nothing to do with these areas began to come to the leadership. Lawyers, abstract managers, economists, philologists, etc. By asserting their authority, they broke a lot of firewood, but they confirmed their authority. This is a simple mechanism
      2. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
        Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 2 May 2022 16: 46
        You can ask the author of the answer yourself: https://topcor.ru/24428-kak-rossija-uzhe-otvetila-na-zapadnye-sankcii.html#comment-id-231496
  12. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) April 30 2022 15: 35
    The answer is simple: the Kremlin's toothless policy, which cannot be called anything other than stupid, as it was in relation to Kyiv, has remained the same in relation to Kazakhstan. The troops were withdrawn in three days and the power was left with the British toadies. And what else can happen when Britain rules?
  13. The comment was deleted.
  14. Rumen5252 Offline Rumen5252
    Rumen5252 (Rumen) April 30 2022 20: 12
    The situation in Kazakhstan is determined by the success of the NWO in Ukraine

    Very correct. As long as the operation in Ukraine goes badly for Russia, it is impossible to transfer forces to Kazakhstan. And if the operation in Ukraine drags on for years (as things are going), then it will not be surprising that Kazakhstan will make a gradual attempt to expel Russians from northern Kazakhstan.
    1. Rusa Offline Rusa
      Rusa 1 May 2022 21: 26
      Do you think that this will suit China?
      It is unlikely that Beijing will like this alignment, so that
      the Anglo-Saxons created a Ukrainian script for them in Kazakhstan.
  15. Amper Offline Amper
    Amper (Vlad) April 30 2022 21: 03
    Partners are attracted to cooperation by the power and greatness of a neighbor, and weakness repels. Who, when the USSR was a superpower, tried to attack it? China Mao? Understood. No offense to modern GREAT CHINA! With respect to the Great Pilot Mao Tse-tung! May his ancestors and descendants be glorified!
  16. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 1 May 2022 01: 25
    Babai Asians have always had an inferiority complex, they hate "ors" - "Rusnya" because the Russians gave them statehood to their wild stupid ancestors, and protected them from extermination as small children, but for this they hate us, they are ashamed to admit that when the Russians smashed empires in Europe, and then made steamboat aircraft, their ancestors grazed sheep and hid behind Russian backs, and this complex hurts their pride and swagger (enhanced by big money), and they can’t do anything with their nature, which is almost has not lost animal instincts (polygamy is one of them), despite the enormous efforts of Russians to raise them to their moral and cultural level. but they don’t owe anything to the West (the Russians did everything), so they have love with them, though at their expense
    1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
      Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 1 May 2022 05: 45
      This is rather one of the motives, moreover, not the most important.
      Much more important is the fact that Russia has done a lot in the post-Soviet era in order to throw off all the obligations of the "big brother". It is difficult to cross it out, and we are not trying to do it. Our modern foreign policy, emphatically based on pragmatic personal interests, is devoid of a clear geopolitical goal. This gives no reason to our potential partners to expect that we have seriously changed. And it does not promise anything attractive in the common future.
      We arrogantly want our environment to see the "obvious" benefits in their future from being close to us, and take full responsibility for this choice.
      1. Alexey Davydov Offline Alexey Davydov
        Alexey Davydov (Alexey) 1 May 2022 06: 14
        As for the swagger of the Kazakhs ..

        This is still not Ukraine. No close culture or language, mentality!. ! The specific ethnicity is Asian..

        Yes, in a drum we are a certain Kazakhstan, not to trifles

        Sregey Pavlenko
        Let them mount their camels and ride on their steppes
  17. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
    Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 1 May 2022 06: 02
    Marzhetsky is wrong again, what is the thinking of the times of gunboat diplomacy? what kind of movement towards the introduction of troops, for such a dependent country and so close located, you can get by with a change of leadership, control internal politics without the introduction of troops, and troops are now being introduced in half a day ..... Russia's problem is not the input and withdrawal of troops, but the lack of a coherent policy, and not only in the CSTO, but also internally, . it was this absence that gave rise to Ukraine, until scoundrels and traitors like the Galkins and Urgants (and their high-ranking lobbyists) are purged from the authorities and show business, then everything will be bad, and the introduction of troops is already the last resort, a surgical operation with neglected prevention, the reason is the vague and treacherous position of part of the leadership of the Russian Federation
    1. Marzhecki Offline Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) 1 May 2022 07: 54
      Marzhetsky is wrong again, what is the thinking of the times of gunboat diplomacy?

      Wow. Not right? Again?
      Too much pathos, Vova. In general, I am rarely right.
      Or rather, almost always.
      1. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
        Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 1 May 2022 18: 34
        Quote: Marzhetsky
        In general, I rarely

        as you can see, you again didn’t find an argument .... not a single one, and you are trying to hide your polemical weakness behind your hypertrophied CSF ..... it’s funny honestly, you don’t have methods
  18. Kapany3 Offline Kapany3
    Kapany3 1 May 2022 08: 30
    Quote from Mikhail L.
    So I, having an alternative opinion, am on the side of ... the Anglo-Saxons?
    Personal attacks with dubious generalizations - low flying! ;-(

    Unfortunately, this is exactly what your "alternative" posts look like, or, alternatively, you are just trolling, knowing perfectly well what it is about.
    1. Michael L. Offline Michael L.
      Michael L. 2 May 2022 09: 55
      I repeat: Personal attacks with dubious generalizations - low flying! ;-(
  19. unimog1 Offline unimog1
    unimog1 1 May 2022 08: 54
    Thank you again, continue to create the right opinion. Who 30 years ago did not know what would happen now, is not able to understand what is happening and what will happen tomorrow, due to the lack of subject knowledge of the reasons, moral and historical axioms. Let them comment.
  20. Leonid Dymov Offline Leonid Dymov
    Leonid Dymov (Leonid) 1 May 2022 10: 10
    Sooner or later, Kazakhstan will have to return the Russian lands to Russia, which Ukraine is doing now. This has already been done by Moldova. The same fate awaits the Baltics. The cat knows whose fat she ate. That's why they're all so nervous.
  21. boriz Offline boriz
    boriz (boriz) 1 May 2022 10: 40
    In January, Great Britain brewed a mess in Kazakhstan (by the hands of Turkey and Azerbaijan) precisely with the aim of dragging Russia into a long showdown before Ukraine's attack on the LDNR and the Russian Federation. As early as January, the World Bank was buying sanctioned (in the near future) Russian goods on a record. (https://t.me/geonrgru/2445). And on January 19, the lend-lease law was submitted to the US Congress, which is now being adopted.
    The whole West then began to squeal that Russia had entered and would never leave. If Putin had delayed his exit, the sanctions would have begun even then. He got in on time and left just as well.
    The borders of Turkey and the WB are far from Kazakhstan, they will not have time to organize anything serious there in the near future. And at the end of the SVO, the alignment in the world and Europe will noticeably change. And everyone will get their own. Including Turkey, Azerbaijan and WB.
  22. aslanxnumx Offline aslanxnumx
    aslanxnumx (Aslan) 1 May 2022 10: 45
    Russia needs to cancel all agreements on the transfer of its territory during the Soviet era
  23. Rustem Offline Rustem
    Rustem (Rustem) 4 May 2022 01: 51
    66% of their exports are oil, the lion's share of which goes through the Russian port of Novorossiysk via the Russian railway. This is a continental country, a dead end. Depends on Russia. Instead of this marriage, the Anglo-Saxons promised her a marriage with Azerbaijan and Georgia under their control, which, instead of the Russian Federation, would provide them with an entry point to trade maritime communications. The issue with the northern territories will flare up, it must be resolved preemptively by force and roll the West itself into a financial crisis. True, everyone will suffer, incl. and China and India. But we will come out with fewer losses due to food self-sufficiency.