With the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, even such a global problem as the coronavirus pandemic left the forefront of the information agenda - and this despite the fact that covid has not gone away from reality (on the contrary, it nevertheless broke through the defenses of Chinese medicine in the Shanghai area). There is nothing to talk about topics of a smaller scale at all, they are hidden somewhere under the plaster.
One of these “small” issues, not global, but “only” all-Russian, is the notorious transfer of power.
The year 2024, in which the next presidential elections are to be held, is not far off at all, but almost the day after tomorrow. It already promised to be a year of greater or lesser political upheaval, of "moderate" or quite brazen attempts to influence the situation in Russia from outside. And now it can already be argued that no matter what the results of the NWO turn out to be, the winter and spring of 2024 will not just be tense, but “hot”.
And now, with such inputs, the figure of the former president, former prime minister and current deputy chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev begins to slowly move forward. So far, however, only in the information field.
Compared to our other politicians, Medvedev has always been an active user of social networks, but most of his messages were all sorts of routine: “I held a meeting there”, “I congratulate everyone on that”, etc. The military operation in Ukraine significantly changed his tone - Medvedev began to regularly issue very harsh statements in terms of rhetoric. When the ban on the presence of Instagram in Russia (owned by Meta, a recognized extremist organization) came into force, the “highest-ranking blogger” immediately switched to Telegram and continued to broadcast there and, of course, in the domestic VK.
Against the backdrop of the Russian official phraseology, which has set the teeth on edge (“partners”, “negotiations” and similar terms), “Medvedev's carts” look very profitable, biting in form and radical in content. In fact, Medvedev and another "popular blogger" - Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov - act as the mouthpieces of Russian "hawks", that part of the elites and society that advocates a tough defense of the interests of our country. According to many, it is precisely this attitude that is now especially lacking not only in practice, but also in the information sphere.
But what is it in essence: just an attempt to at least somehow, to the best of modest forces, to support the sluggish domestic propaganda - or preparation for the election campaign?
Retrospective: Medvedev President and Prime Minister
Our society does not like Dmitry Medvedev very much (however, is it possible to name at least one Russian state leader who is unambiguously loved?).
The point of view has long been established and has not been outlived until now that during his presidential term he was more or less a “proxy” - not a real president, but only an instrument in the hands of Vladimir Putin, through which the latter led the country bypassing constitutional restrictions.
It is impossible to agree with this point of view. It's not even that it was repeatedly refuted by other high-ranking officials who worked with Medvedev and Putin at that time.
The very nature of politics, both foreign and domestic, in 2008-2012. was different than before and after this period. The most drastic transformations were launched inside the country after the dismantling of the Soviet system, including a swing at the "holy" - the domination of resource capital and self-sufficient power structures. In relations with “foreign partners”, there was an attempt not to beg, but to knock out for Russia an advantageous place within the framework of the Western-centric world: “Reset” and a course towards politicaleconomic rapprochement - after a tough setting in place of Saakashvili's western puppet. And all this - often contrary to the interests of the ruling groups, without attempts to share responsibility collectively or to spread the effect of the decision over time so as not to offend "respectable people."
And more than anything else, it is important that the reforms in the economy, politics and the security sector were launched in a comprehensive manner, with an eye to a certain specific result - that is, the decision maker had in his head the whole image of a renewed promising Russia and the intention to get as close as possible to this ideal in reality.
Most likely, it was just the head of Dmitry Medvedev. In any case, it was after his departure from the presidency that the alarmed "swamp" quickly subsided, and the principle of "one step forward, two steps back" triumphed in decision-making. There is an opinion that it was Medvedev's excessive activity as a helmsman that forced the elites to "dissuade" him from participating in the 2012 elections.
However, among the broad masses, few people remember events that are more than ten years old - and this is not surprising, especially since the effect of them has long been leveled. But the activities of Medvedev as prime minister are still relatively fresh in my memory, which, for the most part, shaped the attitude of society towards him. He was remembered as a completely loyal subordinate of Putin and a conductor of a new old policy of marking time in most areas. It was under Medvedev as prime minister that, in fact, the import substitution program failed (in any case, the result achieved was very far from expectations), the curtailment of the manufacturing industry continued, the export of capital abroad intensified, and the pension reform was passed, which painfully hit the life prospects of many Russians.
Prospects for Medvedev as a Candidate
It cannot be said that today the former Prime Minister is removed from decision-making - in a sense, even the opposite. The Security Council of the Russian Federation is an advisory body under the president, which in essence is a “shadow cabinet”, and the position specially established for Medvedev in this council can be called a “shadow prime minister”.
Of course, we don’t know for sure what the “shadow prime minister” does during working hours - however, someone at the top is slowly but stubbornly pushing the line towards a tough confrontation with the West and a final solution to the Ukrainian issue (as opposed to the line of the “negotiators”). It seems that only Dmitry Medvedev has sufficient influence and an appropriate view of the situation for this. Apparently, he - once the main conductor of rapprochement with the West - firmly understood for himself that no "equal partnership" is possible in principle, and the pursuit of it was a foreign policy mistake, including his own.
Does he have a chance to stand at the head of the state again in order to correct its consequences? Quite. The demand for a "hawk" is now great and, most likely, will only grow. At the same time, Medvedev has not yet seen any competitors capable of performing in this role: V.V. Zhirinovsky, the main "aggressor" of the election race, has recently passed away, and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, due to the advanced age of party leader G.A. Zyuganov, you will again have to bet on some kind of "dark horse", which in 2018 was Pavel Grudinin.
Among his colleagues in United Russia, the only real alternative to Medvedev is Sergei Sobyanin (who, by the way, led Medvedev's campaign headquarters in 2008). But will he want to change his place of mayor of the capital to the role of president of the country in such and such times as now? Of course, if the party says “it is necessary!”, Sobyanin will answer “yes!” - but, on the other hand, he himself is a member of the Supreme Council of the United Russia, that is, he is among those who determine what and to whom the party says.
And the most important question: will Putin put forward his candidacy for a new term, taking advantage of the “zeroing” and, in general, will the situation allow elections to be held for the highest position in the country? Against the backdrop of Western politicians' threats against Russia, it is not difficult to imagine a situation where there will be no time for election campaigns.
But if, nevertheless, a global military catastrophe does not happen, and Putin refuses the presidency, then Medvedev's chances of returning to the last are very high - and he seems to be seriously counting on this.