Can Russia ensure the security of Transnistria in the event of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The last few days have passed under anxious anticipation of the prospect of opening a second anti-Russian front. There is a lot of evidence that the NATO bloc together with Ukraine can finally resolve the “Transnistrian issue” by force. What will this mean for our country and can we somehow prevent the massacre of the pro-Russian enclave in Moldova?

The Transnistrian conflict is one of the oldest and most painful in the post-Soviet space. Its origins lie in the collapse of the USSR, when Moldova received "independence", and in the early 90s of the last century, violent interethnic clashes began there, which were stopped only after the direct intervention of the Russian army. The main problems of the emerging Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic are its unrecognized legal status, as well as the lack of a common border with the Russian Federation. The PMR is stretched along the Dniester, mainly along its left bank, and is sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. Moreover, this is probably the most pro-Russian region in the post-Soviet space: the flag of the Russian Federation is used in the PMR as the second state flag, the coat of arms is almost indistinguishable from the coat of arms of the Moldavian SSR, the Russian language has the status of a state language on a par with Ukrainian and Moldavian, the legislation has been brought into line with ours for the purpose of possible entry part of the Russian Federation, and most citizens of this unrecognized republic have a Russian passport.

For obvious reasons, this clearly pro-Russian enclave on the Dniester is extremely disliked by Chisinau, Bucharest, which dreams of swallowing Moldova, Kyiv, as well as Brussels and Washington. However, it was difficult to take and solve this problem just like that, since the PMR has its own armed forces, and the Russian military is quite officially stationed there, guarding the huge ammunition depots of the Soviet army in Kolbasna, and peacekeepers who ensure that the interethnic conflict in Transnistria is so and stayed frozen.

But with the coming to power in Moldova of the pro-American President Sandu, who is at the same time a citizen of Moldova and Romania, as well as with the start of a special military operation to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine, the NATO bloc opened a window of opportunity for a final solution to the “Transnistrian issue”.

Second front

As we have detailed disassembled earlier, for a convincing victory over Ukraine, the Russian army will need to perform three tasks: to defeat the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass, depriving Kyiv of its most combat-ready forces, cut off Nezalezhnaya from the Azov and Black Seas, and then carry out an operation to cut off Western Ukraine from Central Ukraine, cutting off fuel supplies, weapons and ammunition from NATO countries.

To date, only a part of these strategically important tasks has been completed - the Kherson region and the south of Zaporozhye have been liberated, that is, the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and the land corridor to Crimea have been taken under the control of the RF Armed Forces. Rustam Minnekaev, Deputy Commander of the Central Military District, spoke about the specific content of the second stage of the NMD a few days ago:

Since the beginning of the second phase of the special operation, it has already begun just two days ago, one of the tasks of the Russian army is to establish full control over the Donbass and southern Ukraine. This will provide a land corridor to the Crimea, as well as affect the vital objects of the Ukrainian economics...

Control over the South of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population. Apparently, we are now at war with the whole world, as it was during the Great Patriotic War, the whole of Europe, the whole world was against us.

So, from a high-ranking military leader, it was said that the priority goals are the defeat of the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea (Azov is already under our control) and reaching the border with Transnistria. And then it began.

A whole series of terrorist attacks has taken place on the territory of the unrecognized republic in recent days. A red level of terrorist threat has been introduced, the May 9 parade has been canceled due to the possibility of provocations. Checkpoints have been set up on the border with Moldova and Ukraine. The PMR Armed Forces and the Russian military contingent have been put on high alert. It is reported that the Romanian military appeared on the territory of Moldova, mimicking local warriors. In Kyiv, a resonant statement was made by the former adviser to the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Yuriy Butusov:

There was only one chance left to save Mariupol - a blow to Transnistria. The only chance to save our prisoners now is the demilitarization of the occupied Transnistria from illegal bandit groups that have seized this legal part of Moldova.

As for “saving Mariupol”, this is, of course, absurd, since the city has already been liberated by Russian troops, only the last Nazi leftovers remain in the dungeons of Azovstal, from where they will crawl out when food supplies run out, or they will voluntarily self-destruct there, turning to cannibalism. An attack on Transnistria could allow this whole Ukrainian-NATO gang to solve other, more pressing problems.

At first, unfortunately, we have to admit that the TMR Armed Forces and the small Russian contingent will not stand against the trained, well-armed and motivated for revenge Ukrainian army on their own. The very geography of the republic, narrow and stretched along the Dniester, will not allow the defenders to hold out for a long time against the large-scale offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Moreover, in Kyiv they are calling for simply shelling this entire territory with long-range cannon artillery, MLRS and missiles, avoiding losses in personnel. This is a very serious and absolutely realistic threat.

Secondly, the elimination of the PMR with the help of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will allow the NATO bloc to take control of Transnistria through the hands of the Romanian military, strengthening the positions of the North Atlantic Alliance in the Black Sea region. For Kyiv, it is vital to keep access to the port Odessa. The British and Americans are very interested in keeping Ukraine on its Black Sea coast, where their new military bases will undoubtedly appear in the future, if Zelensky's criminal regime still holds out.

Thirdly, after the start of deliveries of modern anti-ship missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the landing operation of the Russian Navy in the Odessa region becomes almost impossible. The tragic death of the Russian flagship - the cruiser "Moskva" - can serve as a clear confirmation of this. All that remains is a ground operation of the RF Armed Forces with the aim of breaking through to Transnistria, but it will require the use of very large forces. Nikolaev and Odessa still remain under the control of Kyiv, there are strong garrisons there. We will have to make forced marches over considerable distances, leaving a dangerous enemy in the rear, and also to endure the main strikes by aircraft and cruise missiles in the Black Sea region. For the blockade of these cities, turned into fortified areas, serious forces will have to be left. All this means that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation will be forced to ease pressure on the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the guaranteed and quick defeat of which will then be in question.

Finally, the fall of Transnistria will be a heavy image defeat for Moscow and a moral victory for Kyiv and its curators. The situation is very, very serious. Perhaps it would be better if, at the first stage of the NMD, the maximum forces of the Russian army were thrown not near Kyiv, but immediately on the encirclement of the Donbass grouping of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and in the direction of Odessa and Transnistria. This would make it possible to promptly solve priority strategic tasks. But what's done is done.

How to prevent the fall of Transnistria?

There is one important nuance, about which for some reason many people forget. Unlike the DPR and LPR, the PMR is not officially recognized by Russia. Therefore, legally it is still part of Moldavia. An attack on Transnistria by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will de jure be military aggression against an associated member of the European Union - the Republic of Moldova. This can be circumvented only if President Sandu herself asks Kyiv for military assistance. If, however, Russian peacekeepers who are there on the basis of an armistice agreement suffer, then Moscow will have every reason to declare war on Chisinau and Kyiv, leaving the limited format of the special operation.

The transition to a full-scale war with Ukraine will give Russia the opportunity to cut off energy supplies through its territory to Europe, as well as officially warn NATO countries that any military assistance to Kyiv will be considered by the Russian Defense Ministry as entering the war on the side of Nezalezhnaya with all the ensuing consequences. In addition, for the very first shot of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the direction of Transnistria, the RF Armed Forces will have to respond with a pinpoint missile attack on administrative buildings in the Ukrainian capital. Moldova will also become a legitimate target for Russian strikes.

This is the only way Russia in the current situation can ensure the safety of the PMR and a convincing victory over the Ukroreich without hasty forced marches to Transnistria.
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  1. Bakht Offline Bakht
    Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 27 2022 13: 18
    If, however, Russian peacekeepers who are there on the basis of an armistice agreement suffer, then Moscow will have every reason to declare war on Chisinau and Kyiv, leaving the limited format of the special operation.

    As I understand it, the deaths of residents of Donbass who have Russian citizenship, air strikes on Russian cities, do not give grounds for exiting the limited format of the special operation?
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 27 2022 14: 30
      As I understand it, the deaths of residents of Donbass who have Russian citizenship, air strikes on Russian cities, do not give grounds for exiting the limited format of the special operation?

      Apparently not.
    2. Kofesan Offline Kofesan
      Kofesan (Valery) April 27 2022 17: 22
      If this happens, it will mean an increase in the degree of confrontation and the internationalization of the Special Operations. The West would go for it with pleasure, but it is clearly pissing.

      And Moldova is also good! A puppet. Whatever they decide in Brussels, Sandu will chime in, though not without pleasure... And who knows if Romania is ready to say goodbye to the sweet period of being in the EU. All the goodies for her will remain in the past and a long, long pain will begin.

      After all, further for her and Moldova - only downhill ... In a word, this will show a lot ... Therefore, a more serious weapon "exit" to the stage is possible. The gypsies have been running for a long time.
      1. Bakht Offline Bakht
        Bakht (Bakhtiyar) April 27 2022 19: 53
        I am not a strategist and I do not sit in the General Staff. But sometimes it's good to look at maps. Of course, it is easy to fight around the globe. But the bridge is destroyed.

  2. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) April 27 2022 14: 03
    in this case, Chisinau will be smashed, and tactical nuclear weapons may also be used
  3. Indifferent Offline Indifferent
    Indifferent April 27 2022 14: 38
    Disagree with the author! An attack on Transnistria means instantaneous recognition of it by Russia, with all the consequences. And this is air defense support with the destruction of the Armed Forces of Ukraine living there. And there are not so many of them. It is quite comparable with the Transnistrian forces. Will hold up well for a while. And the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can only be taken from the front. So they can't do it alone. All hope for Moldovans. But they are not eager to fight. Yes, and it will end with the occupation of Moldova itself by our forces. Sandu knows this and will not climb headlong.
  4. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
    igor.igorev (Igor) April 27 2022 14: 39
    author, are you aware that Russian troops are in the PMR by decision of the UN Security Council?
    1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
      Marzhecki (Sergei) April 27 2022 14: 56
      Yes, why did you ask? And how does this contradict what was written in the article?
      1. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
        igor.igorev (Igor) April 27 2022 15: 15
        In addition, he asked that the UN would then have to take action against Ukraine. Now, in the eyes of Europe and the United States, it looks like the injured party. And in the event of an attack on the PMR, they will become an aggressor with all the ensuing consequences. Was it really that hard to think about it?
        1. Marzhecki Online Marzhecki
          Marzhecki (Sergei) April 27 2022 15: 29
          Was it really that hard to think about it?

          Teach your grandmother to suck eggs. Put the United States on international law. This is first.
          Secondly, Sandu herself can ask Kyiv for help. This is written in the article if you read it and tried to understand.
          1. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
            igor.igorev (Igor) April 27 2022 17: 42
            I have no doubt that the US was laying on the right. But we immediately have a trump card in the UN, and the Americans do not need it at all. They are quite satisfied with the war to the last crest.
            1. InanRom Offline InanRom
              InanRom (Ivan) April 28 2022 00: 18
              .. "trump cards in the UN" greatly helped Yugoslavia, Libya, Syria, Iraq ?! Blessed are the believers in the UN...which is in the pocket of the states. For reference:
              In terms of contribution to the regular budget of the UN in 2022, the following Member States are in the lead:
              USA - $693 (417%)
              ...... and almost at the end of the list (below Brazil, but above the Netherlands)
              Russia - $58 (814%)
              Who bites the hand that feeds?!
              Because the states are purple, they know how to shake test tubes, and no one has brought them to justice for this.
              and one should not confuse the position of members of the Security Council like Russia and China with the position of the UN and the United States. The UN has long been incapacitated, and the entire international practice of the last three decades shows this.
              1. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
                igor.igorev (Igor) April 28 2022 09: 53
                Our troops were not there, as well as our interests. We have had very tense relations with Yugoslavia since its founding. And don't forget that in the 90s we all had brother friends, we voted like all the liberda in the UN. Now the situation is completely different. They run into us for NWO in Ukraine, and then we get the right to run into the USA. And they understand it. You just have to look a little further than your nose.
      2. The comment was deleted.
    2. GIS Offline GIS
      GIS (Ildus) April 27 2022 15: 00
      he is aware - he writes PEACEKEEPERS

      While on the ground harsh peacekeeping measures may sometimes appear similar to peace enforcement actions as provided for in Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations, the two should not be confused.
      - Harsh peacekeeping measures involve the use of force at the tactical level, with the authorization of the Security Council and with the consent of the host state and/or the main parties to the conflict.
      - By contrast, peace enforcement actions do not require the consent of the major parties and may involve the use of military force at the strategic or international level, which is normally prohibited to Member States under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Charter, unless such use of force is authorized by the Council Security.

      did not find the current mandate for PMR peacekeepers, but a reference to the Russian Foreign Ministry that the mandate has not yet been exhausted:
      1. Alesandro Alesandrovich (Alesandro Alesandrovich) April 27 2022 16: 25
        Peacekeepers in the PMR are not with the consent of the UN, but on the basis of the "Agreement on the Principles of the Peaceful Settlement of the Armed Conflict in the Transnistrian Region of the Republic of Moldova" of 1992. The agreement was signed by Russian President Yeltsin and Moldovan President Sinegur. Therefore, in the event of a conflict, our peacekeepers can only count on the help of the Motherland.
        1. GIS Offline GIS
          GIS (Ildus) 2 May 2022 07: 28
          Thanks for clarifying
    FGJCNJK (Nikolai) April 27 2022 14: 43
    And why was it necessary to blurt out about strikes on decision-making centers? However, the word is not a sparrow - it fluttered - you won’t catch it. A sparrow can be and can be caught, the word is NO!
    1. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
      igor.igorev (Igor) April 27 2022 17: 44
      Are you impatient to unleash the Third World War?
  6. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) April 27 2022 15: 14
    Who can say clearly why Russia has not recognized the PMR for 32 years, despite the exceptional pro-Russian nature of the region. Why for 32 years (and even now!) the Russian Federation has been talking about the indivisibility and inviolability of the sacred borders of Moldova. About some kind of status within the pro-Romanian Moldova.
    There are characters in the Kremlin who say that the nasty Pridnestrovians interfere with making friends with fraternal Moldova. There is! When imposing sanctions on Moldova, officials of the Russian Federation do not distinguish Pridnestrovie and beat their own.
    The defeat of the armed forces of the republic of peacekeepers of the Russian Federation is inevitable. They simply have nothing to fight. In addition to small arms of the 80s, there is nothing. Well, yes, a dozen tanks and armored personnel carriers, even more ancient. The warehouses that are talked about a lot are just old ammunition. And there is nothing to shoot!
    Need immediate action!
    Recognize the PMR, conclude an agreement on military protection with the Russian Federation, issue real warnings to Kyiv, Chisinau, Bucharest, etc. As a confirmation of determination, block the bridges in Giurgiulesti, Kamenetz-Podolsky, through which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now being fed.
    Of course, turn off the gas to Moldova from 01.05.22/XNUMX/XNUMX (non-compliance with the agreement on the audit of the debt of the Republic of Moldova). Bucharest, what pays for gas in rubles?
    1. alexxnumx Offline alexxnumx
      alexxnumx (Alexander) April 27 2022 20: 07
      and fight on two fronts? Turn everything off for everyone ... it’s not clear how to live then, but just turn everything off for everyone. Uma you have a whole room :)
    2. igor.igorev Offline igor.igorev
      igor.igorev (Igor) April 28 2022 09: 55
      Do you study geography at school? Or is there no such thing? Look at the map and maybe then you will understand why Russia does not recognize the PMR.
  7. alexxnumx Offline alexxnumx
    alexxnumx (Alexander) April 27 2022 16: 15
    Good article
  8. mircea mircea Offline mircea mircea
    mircea mircea (mircea) April 27 2022 21: 21
    moldovan politicians, europimps and slave sellers
  9. unimog1 Offline unimog1
    unimog1 April 28 2022 09: 19
    Mobilization of science and industry under a single control. Without any financial interest. Come on, it's time to start.
  10. sacha1960 Offline sacha1960
    sacha1960 (Sasha Anton) April 28 2022 15: 14
    Russia starts a Special Operation in Ukraine, warning the West (5 or 10 times stronger than Russia) not to intervene, otherwise it will use its special weapons (tactical weapons only in Ukraine, but backed up with strategic weapons if NATO intervenes).
    The West intervenes en masse, and Russia does nothing but use empty talk and thousands of cowardly excuses to avoid its promise. So she will lose the war (she is already doing this) and her prestige in the World, because not a single former ally trusts her anymore, (tell Transnistria), she is a big boastful bear who will not dare to use her claws.
  11. Pavel57 Offline Pavel57
    Pavel57 (Paul) April 30 2022 14: 17
    In the event of an attack, it is necessary to declare war on Ukraine and turn off the gas.