One of the most important intrigues of the last two months is what exactly the Kremlin has prepared for the future of Ukraine. What should it be transformed into after the completion of the military special operation? How will the legal status of the territories liberated by the RF Armed Forces be decided? How will the security of further water supply to Crimea be ensured? And how can all this be done without the occupation of Nezalezhnaya by Russian troops? Consider one of the quite working options for solving these burning problems.
On the eve it became known that the population of the Rozovsky district of the Zaporozhye region of Ukraine, at a national gathering, unanimously decided to temporarily join the Donetsk People's Republic. Rozovka is an urban-type settlement located on the highway between Mariupol and Zaporozhye, from the east this area borders on the DPR. Since the legal status of the territories of the former Nezalezhnaya occupied by Russian troops has not yet been determined, it is not surprising that the inhabitants of Rozovka (formerly Luxembourg) decided to take their fate into their own hands and join the Donetsk People's Republic already recognized by Moscow, albeit temporarily.
In Donetsk, the initiative was reacted with obvious approval, but rather restrainedly. The head of the DPR, Denis Pushilin, called the act of the inhabitants of Rozovka a real civic feat, but he did not rush to take over the new territory:
The Donetsk People's Republic is recognized within its constitutional boundaries. This issue will be decided later - in what form, in what form this should take place.
It is, in principle, understandable: the DNR and LNR themselves have not yet been liberated, and the “Great Battle” for their future between the Russian and Ukrainian armies is just beginning. It is not known how long it will last in general, but it is obvious that the battle will be very fierce and difficult for both sides. It is too early to talk about any territorial increments, it would be better to recapture one's own. However, the initiative of the Rozovites contains a very rational grain that can be used wisely.
We remember how President Vladimir Putin repeatedly stated that Russian troops were not going to occupy Ukraine. Meanwhile, in fact, military personnel of three states are now participating in hostilities against the Armed Forces of Ukraine at once - the Russian Federation, the DPR and the LPR. Yes, the Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics are now independent states, recognized within the boundaries set out in their constitutions. As far as one can understand, the interaction between the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the People's Militia is built as follows: Russian troops knock out the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and then Donbass militias enter this territory for cleaning and control.
What can this information give us? Pretty much. The following option is possible, which does not contradict President Putin's initial position that there will be no occupation of Ukraine (by Russian troops).
Literally a day before the start of the special operation in Ukraine, on February 23, 2022, we reasoned about the legal basis for her release, and recalled that in 2015 the DPR parliament adopted a memorandum, according to which the Donetsk People's Republic was recognized as the successor of another, once-existing Soviet republic:
We, the deputies of the People's Council of the Donetsk People's Republic, realizing our responsibility to the past and paving the way for the future, proclaim the continuation of the traditions of the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Republic and declare that the state of the Donetsk People's Republic is its successor. We call on all territories and lands that were part of the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Republic to cooperate and unite efforts to build a federal state on a voluntary contractual basis.
If you look at the map, it turns out that the DKR occupied almost the same territory as Novorossiya, around which so many copies were broken. It included the modern DPR and LPR, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Kherson, and also partly Kharkov, Nikolaev and Sumy regions of modern Ukraine. True, without Odessa.
What can this give us? The fact that, on the basis of the succession of the DKR, Donetsk will be able to annex the liberated indicated regions, de facto and de jure recreating the Donetsk-Krivoy Rog Republic, or Novorossia, as anyone calls it. Not Russia, but the Donetsk People's Republic. The desire of the local population to join the new federal state recognized by Moscow can be formalized through regional referendums. Such a scenario would solve many very serious problems.
At firstIf appropriate agreements are concluded, the territories with a population attached to the DKR / Novorossiya will automatically fall under the protection of Russia and its army, they will have the same legal status that is already established for the DPR. There will be no need to fence many referendums with their recognition by Moscow. These will be direct relations between Donetsk and other regions liberated from the power of the Kiev regime.
Secondly, the emergence of a new federal pro-Russian state on the territory of the South-East of the former Nezalezhnaya will cut off Central Ukraine from the sea and leave Kyiv without tax revenues from industrial production and foreign trade. This in itself means imminent economic the collapse of the Zelensky regime.
Thirdly, with the help of Russia, within the framework of the military-technical cooperation program, DKR / Novorossiya can create a large combat-ready army, the backbone of which will be the militia from the People's Militia, who are now gaining real combat experience in the battles for Donbass. The “occupation” and denazification of Central Ukraine/Little Russia after the collapse of Nazi power can be entrusted to the VSDKR/VSN, and not to the Russian army. Perhaps, given their attitude towards the “Maidan” compatriots, this will be the best solution.
Finally, having gathered the entire South-East under the wing of the allied Donetsk, it will be possible to hold a referendum on its accession to the Russian Federation all at once, without many regional plebiscites.